All Ireland prelimQFs: Mayo/Derry, Galway/Monaghan, Tyrone/Roscommon, Louth/Cork

[Armagh18]

So the (Nordie)consensus is Derry to bate Mayowestros,  only thing in question is the margin of victory.

  

I don't know where you found that "consensus", but I can categorically say its certainly not the popular opinion from us "nordies".
A full strength, fully fit Derry beats a full strength fully fit Mayo 9/10 times.
We are far from full strength and players returning from injury are not fully fit. We're low on confidence given the manner of the defeats we've had and I personally feel the players are not buying into the Harte regime. A combination of injuries and a lack of belief in management and their "tactics" are resulting in the performances we're seeing.

Difficult to see a Derry win, unless we get a couple more players back from injury (Conor Doherty and Nial Loughlin) and unless we sort out the tactics.

I hope I'm wrong and the tripping over the line win against Westmeath is the kickstart our championship needs...but I'm expecting a Mayo win unfortunately.

Highlighted bit sickens my hole a bit I have to say, Derry supporters are a bit deluded as to where they are really at or even were. Their go to point of reference is the Kerry AI semi or League final v Dubs, 2 good performances but they're outliers not their 'standard', caught Kerry off guard a bit (still got beaten too), after a gift of a route to the semi (2 years in a row btw). Played championship fit all year this NFL season and now NFL Penalty Kick Champs but possibly reaping the whirlwind for that approach now too.

With all players fit Derry are a good team among other good teams (behind a couple of better teams), nothing more.

The highlighted bit is making us sound like Armagh supporters. Best forwards in the country not that long ago, but they couldn't score a penalty   
2 Ulsters in a row, 2 AISFs in a row, Div 1 league title - better than a lot of teams and I think shows that performances were more than outliers.
Doesn't mean we'll get back to that level again - but up until a few weeks ago that's where we were. Certainly ahead of Mayo and certainly ahead of Armagh. Things change quickly though.

I see the penalties are still hurting you - maybe one of these days Armagh will win a game on penalties and you'll be able to let the past go.

I don't mind you disagreeing with me, part and parcel of it all and of course we all have different opinions and we're probably all wrong.
Hopefully you're hole isnt too sickened 

Based on? Played Derry last year and were still level after extra time. Went to Celtic Park and tanked them 2 weeks ago. Derry full tilt drew with the Dubs who were only getting going (and who still are only gearing up) which is what Mayo did.) The league counts for very little as Mayo last year and Derry this year have shown.

We beat Mayo comfortably in the league this year and went on to win Div 1, the same Div Mayo are in. That put us ahead of them at that stage.

We had beaten Armagh the last time we played (get over the penalties chap - we won, you lost) in a game where we were all over the place due to the upheaval around a manager. We had a black card. Yous were in a winning position. And still lost. Derry were ahead of Armagh.
Armagh lost a Div2 final this year.
Derry won Div1. At that stage, Derry are ahead of Armagh.
 
Armagh stumbled over the line against Ferm and Down this year.
And if we want to use your logic - couldn't beat Galway who were without their most influential player.

As it stands - Armagh are ahead of Derry. No issue saying that. Deservedly tanked us, said it at the time. But I still stand over, Derry firing on all cylinders with everyone available are better than Armagh. But in that game, and probably in this championship you will go further than us - remains to be seen what yous will do against Kerry/Dublin/Donegal so judgement is reserved until we see that.

That's my logic.
You don't have to agree of course 

Think Mayo and Derry have proved in the last couple of years that the league doesn't mean a whole pile when it comes to the real stuff!

Anyway remains to be seen whether Mayo can lift themselves for another big performance this week after the disappointment of the Dublin game. Very possible Derry go and turn them over.

I'll maintain that theres very little between a good chunk of teams in that 3-8 bracket which includes us, yourselves and Mayo and just comes down to on the day who performs, injuries and that rub of the green.

[imtommygunn]

I don't think it means as little as you think. The problem this year and last was that the teams who won it got done in the first round and that really jolted their confidence and gave them much much harder draws in the knockout stages. They're still good teams.

[greatpoint]

League results are overvalued every year.

[Armagh18]

League results are overvalued every year.

Look at the Dubs in 22, relegated and ended up pushing the ai Winners to a last gasp wonder free

[Wildweasel74]

Derry by 3

[tbrick18]

Derry by 3

 
Hope you're right!

[Blowitupref]

Confirmed on GAA.ie this afternoon that Con Kilpatrick has been suspended for two matches so his championship over unless Tyrone can reach the All Ireland semi final.

[greatpoint]

Laoisman11's stats model on Boards predicting a 6 point win for Mayo

[JoG2]

Laoisman11's stats model on Boards predicting a 6 point win for Mayo

My aunt Margaret thinks Mayo by 3..take from that what you will

[greatpoint]

Laoisman11's stats model on Boards predicting a 6 point win for Mayo

My aunt Margaret thinks Mayo by 3..take from that what you will

I'm sorry if it upset you to read that

[Cunny Funt]

My aunt Margaret thinks Mayo by 3..take from that what you will

Knew from your posting on here over the years that you had some Mayo connection.  I'd say she'll be closer to the margin than Laoisman11's stats model. 

[JoG2]

My aunt Margaret thinks Mayo by 3..take from that what you will

Knew from your posting on here over the years that you had some Mayo connection.  I'd say she'll be closer to the margin than Laoisman11's stats model. 

Margaret is a Derry woman, half Donegal right enough. My connection to Mayo is purely from the heart... I'll have a caravan there some year

[bennydorano]

Laoisman11's stats model on Boards predicting a 6 point win for Mayo

My aunt Margaret thinks Mayo by 3..take from that what you will

I'm sorry if it upset you to read that

Some of the Derry contributions on here are on a par with the BBC or ITV commenting on Engerland.

[greatpoint]

Laoisman11's stats model on Boards predicting a 6 point win for Mayo

My aunt Margaret thinks Mayo by 3..take from that what you will

I'm sorry if it upset you to read that

Some of the Derry contributions on here are on a par with the BBC or ITV commenting on Engerland.

Perhaps we would actually be better served basing our predictions off Derry fans telling us how important wins in the league are

[SouthOfThe Bann]

I want to believe that Derry will beat Mayo on Saturday but the reality is Mayo will beat them comfortably.

Could inflict a really damaging defeat on Derry unless they go more conservative.

And the worst thing about that happening is we'll have to listen to the bandwagon Mayo fans waxing lyrical again