Aintree Grand National - Sat 4th April 2009

[magpie seanie]

Need a new set of statistics next time. First four home all carrying 11 stone plus. Mon Mome also blew another one out of the water - horses that finished unplaced (10th last year) never come back to win it. Until now anyway. And carrying 4 lbs more this time! I dunno. Pin in the paper next year.
That was outrageous OK by Claire Balding about Liam's choppers. She must think she's Pat Kenny.

A mate of mine's mother had the winner. She used the pin in the paper method.

[cavan4ever]

Need a new set of statistics next time. First four home all carrying 11 stone plus. Mon Mome also blew another one out of the water - horses that finished unplaced (10th last year) never come back to win it. Until now anyway. And carrying 4 lbs more this time! I dunno. Pin in the paper next year.
That was outrageous OK by Claire Balding about Liam's choppers. She must think she's Pat Kenny.

A mate of mine's mother had the winner. She used the pin in the paper method.

Fair fuks to her id say that was the only method to pick that horse

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

What a day for the bookies. Assuming they took soemthing similar to last year's £300 million, not too much of that will be paid out. Think you could have gotten 500/1 on Cerium at stages during the week so that was another 125/1 winner with the bookies paying out 5 places. Didn't back him but watched out for him mainly because of the fact that he ran in the Gold Cup and was reckoned by Channel 4 to be "poor value at 1000/1." 11th in the Gold Cup and 5th in the National isn't bad.

Ridiculous behaviour from Balding right enough.

On the stats Hardy, how would ya fare if you always backed the previous winner (if running) each way. They seem to run well after winning but can't win again due to the weight. Did Monty's Pass place after winning and now Comply or Die & Hedgehunter both have in recent years.

[Bogball XV]

who?

The woman that was running around interviewing people, first thing out of her mouth when the winner dismounted,
"let me see you smile" ah "he doesn't have the best teeth in the world but maybe now you can afford to go and have them fixed"
you could see the embarrassment in his face...what a thing to say to anyone never mind a winning Jockey in front of 400 million viewers..Cnut!

desrerate thing to say alright, but where do the 400 million viewers come from?  Is there much interest in this race outside of the UK and Ireland?

[redcard]

She then followe it up with " at least now you can afford to have youre teeth fixed"

his teeth dont look that bad

[Minder]

The Gaa Board is awash with lying bastards so who had a tenner each way on the winner? As for Clare Balding (and i think she is ) that was atrocious from her asking to see his teeth, it was his finest hour and she tried to ruin it for him. He has probably had his teeth knocked out from many a spill but what is her excuse? You could see him going red,mean spirited ugly hatchet faced lesbian oul ****

[Minder]

The Gaa Board is awash with lying b**tards so who had a tenner each way on the winner?

Alright, alright. I had a score on the nose.

I knew there was wan

[Minder]

I bet about £25 and won £3 so im happy enough

[cavan4ever]

I bet 5 e.w on all hardy tips.  Thats why im home tonight 

[Tyrones own]

desrerate thing to say alright, but where do the 400 million viewers come from?  Is there much interest in this race outside of the UK and Ireland?

It was a guess on my part but according to the link below it's estimated at 600 million from 140 countries worldwide

http://www.aintree.co.uk/pages/the-grand-national-experience/

[bcarrier]

New stats for hardy..

* Age 8 to 12 – 9yo
* Won one or more 3m+ Chase YES
* Run in 10+ Chases YES
* Won Class 2 or better Chase YES
* Won Chase worth over £17,000 YES
* Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight on the day - YES
* Top 3 finish in Class 1 Chase over 3m+ - YES
* Top 3 finish in any of last 3 runs - YES
* Last run no greater than 50 days - YES
* No more than one none-finish (F/PU/U etc) that season - YES
* Topspeed of 128+ - YES
* RPR of 144+ - YES
* Top 5 Hennessy, Top 3 Welsh/Irish/Scots National, Top 2 in race over National fences OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m4f+ - YES, 2nd in Welsh National 2 years ago

[deiseach]

My wife made four different bets, one of which was €3 on Mon Mome at 66/1. Naturally there was much rejoicing when the race finished. Then we checked the betting form online and found she'd accidentally bet on him twice! Later on, Liverpool scored the winner in the last minute. Twas a good day.

[Hardy]

Well done Mrs D.

Did you back him, bcarrier? Some interesting ones there and different ways of looking at some of the common ones. Does the revised weight statistic stand up over the last ten years? It may be a better way of looking at weight if it does.

Yesterday blew apart the old French-bred statistic anyway. Until yesterday, a French-bred had never won. Yesterday, not only the winner, but four of the first seven were French bred.

Until yesterday, nine of the previous ten winners and 22 of the other 30 placed horses were Irish bred.  Yesterday, we had one Irish-bred in the first seven.

The biggest trend Mon Mome shattered yesterday, though, was winning after finishing tenth last year and carrying 3 pounds more this time. I can't find another example of that (any unplaced horse coming back to win, never mind one that found nine too good for him last year) going back a long way and I wouldn't have backed him in a hundred years based on that alone.

On the stats Hardy, how would ya fare if you always backed the previous winner (if running) each way. They seem to run well after winning but can't win again due to the weight. Did Monty's Pass place after winning and now Comply or Die & Hedgehunter both have in recent years.

Tacadoir, in the last ten years, there have been 14 runs by former winners, three of them placing - Monty's Pass 4th at 20/1 in 2004, Hedgehunter 2nd at 5/1 in 2006 and Comply Or Die 2nd yesterday @ 14/1. At SP you'd be 15.25 points down if backing them all each way or 1.25 points down if backing place only (if you could have done so pre-Betfair). You'd probably be showing a profit placing at ante-post prices.

[Bogball XV]

My wife made four different bets, one of which was €3 on Mon Mome at 66/1. Naturally there was much rejoicing when the race finished. Then we checked the betting form online and found she'd accidentally bet on him twice! Later on, Liverpool scored the winner in the last minute. Twas a good day.

most bookies were giving guaranteed prices, so depending on she bet with you could be getting the SP of 100/1 - now that'd really be the icing on the cake!

desrerate thing to say alright, but where do the 400 million viewers come from?  Is there much interest in this race outside of the UK and Ireland?

It was a guess on my part but according to the link below it's estimated at 600 million from 140 countries worldwide

http://www.aintree.co.uk/pages/the-grand-national-experience/

Aye, maybe, I just don't know if people outside the UK and Ireland know anything about it, so I'd be surprised if 1/10 of the world's population watch it.

[Our Nail Loney]

Had backed Black Apalachi myself, was going to pick another, had Snowy Morning ear marked but just put the lot on BA, ah well...

As for people saying the bookies cleaned up, plenty of ones in our place had Mon Mome backed, this is the National, every horse was backed to the balls, and sure three highly fancied horses placed in Comply or Die, My Will and State Of Play... It was a better result than if Comply Or Die for example winning of course...

Just before the race I looked at out market books, if Irish Invader or Butlers Cabin had of win, we would have been safer just shutting up shop!!