The DUP thread

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Unionists 43
Nationalists 38
Other 15

Not much hope of a "Border poll" any time soon☹️

Must be 4 don't knows.

Well pbp bring it up to 40 so it and has been for a good 15yrs now all about the alliance and greens

[weareros]

Unionists 43
Nationalists 38
Other 15

Not much hope of a "Border poll" any time soon☹️

Must be 4 don't knows.

Well pbp bring it up to 40 so it and has been for a good 15yrs now all about the alliance and greens

I'd say the 10% going to Greens, Aontu and PBP is primarily a nationalist vote so that's 45% not going to Unionist/Alliance.

[Armagh18]

Unionists 43
Nationalists 38
Other 15

Not much hope of a "Border poll" any time soon☹️

Must be 4 don't knows.

Well pbp bring it up to 40 so it and has been for a good 15yrs now all about the alliance and greens

I'd say the 10% going to Greens, Aontu and PBP is primarily a nationalist vote so that's 45% not going to Unionist/Alliance.

Add to that a good chunk of Alliance voters could be Nationalists in places with 0 chance of a green politician getting in. We're not that far away- as ever it's the middle ground that'll need convincing.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Unionists 43
Nationalists 38
Other 15

Not much hope of a "Border poll" any time soon☹️

Must be 4 don't knows.

Well pbp bring it up to 40 so it and has been for a good 15yrs now all about the alliance and greens

I'd say the 10% going to Greens, Aontu and PBP is primarily a nationalist vote so that's 45% not going to Unionist/Alliance.

Probably correct regarding the greens. Alliance are also much more 'Green' than 20 yrs ago which can be seen in how their voters transfer heavily to nationalist parties, unfortunately they also by and large seem happy with status quo and certainly are not going to be actively chasing a UI. 

[marty34]

Unionists 43
Nationalists 38
Other 15

Not much hope of a "Border poll" any time soon☹️

Must be 4 don't knows.

Well pbp bring it up to 40 so it and has been for a good 15yrs now all about the alliance and greens

I'd say the 10% going to Greens, Aontu and PBP is primarily a nationalist vote so that's 45% not going to Unionist/Alliance.

No one will really know until an actual poll takes place.


SF drifting badly. Poor performance in Stormont. Just going through the motions. In 26 counties, steady enough but mixed messaging. I think they need a re-boot.


DUP drifting after Donaldson.  But conversely TUV gaining on this.


UUP getting the Beattie bounce.


Greens and Alliance where you'd expect them to be. But will need to make a stand, one way or the other, come border poll time. Can't be all things to all men forever.


Aontú/PBP are not gaining much on their 2/3%.


But I can see unionists having a pact in May '27 to tighten things up and win a few more seats and re-gain FM role.

[armaghniac]

But I can see unionists having a pact in May '27 to tighten things up and win a few more seats and re-gain FM role.

In the original Stormont model it was the total unionist and nationalist votes that determined the FM. But SF and the DUP subsequently carved it up in the St Andrews agreement, so that the biggest party got FM. So unless the unionists actually merge then it is the biggest of them that get FM. At this point they can all aim to be the biggest unionist party.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Pacts or merging parties is a bad idea for unionism. It will work in a few seats for Westminster like upper Bann and East Derry to stop SF sneaking in but for stv elections like in the assembly it's counterproductive. Unionist complain their votes are shredded among parties during the transfers but any loss is gained by offering more choice and getting people out to vote for a certain party who wouldn't vote for another.

[Ronnie]

That's right.  Getting people out to vote is unionism biggest electoral issue.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Obtaining and winning a border poll is akin to playing against 16 men, it'll need to be a surefire 60:40 win before the thing is called at which point it becomes a formality, could be another 25 years yet as Westminster who would love to de-couple aren't remotely competent

100% and a few reasons for it.

If it doesn't happen first time around, you'll have the devil of a time getting it again.
Look at the Scots. If the'd had their referendum in 2017 instead of 2014 the result would almost certainly have been different.


If it does happen on a razor thin majority, it'll be all the harder to drag the "no" vote into making it work for everyone.

[armaghniac]

Unionists 43
Nationalists 38
Other 15

Not much hope of a "Border poll" any time soon☹️

Must be 4 don't knows.

Well pbp bring it up to 40 so it and has been for a good 15yrs now all about the alliance and greens

Somebody on Sluggerotoole has done the prospective seats by constituency
Sinn Féin 24,
DUP 15,
SDLP 15,
UUP 13,
TUV 9,
Alliance 9,
Greens 3
Independent Unionists 2.

so Unionists 39, Nationalists 39 and 12 Others, but maybe green enough others.

[Milltown Row2]

It's a stalemate no matter who is FM... like it or lump it this place is staying put, a lot of years ago I took the approach/mindset I'm happy where I am, I'm Irish, I live in Ireland, one government telling me what to do and how to live my life won't make me feel any more Irish or less Irish

The thing that worries me more and more is the continued sectarian stuff being put out on social media, I am persuading my kids to leave this shit hole

[imtommygunn]

Minorities are amplified though. You look at for example Elon musk saying the uk is on the brink of civil war. Social media very far removed from reality. There are still very bigoted pockets but they are getting fewer and further between.

[Orior]

I see that last week the lovely lovely Carla Loveheart went to meet some pupils of Boys Model in North Belfast. While there, she told them that Catholics fare much better because they use education and have one religion, one sport and one political party. I would love to hear what the headmaster thought of Carla's performance. Perhaps she would have been better telling the boys to stop building massive bonfires and read a book.

[RedHand88]

Minorities are amplified though. You look at for example Elon musk saying the uk is on the brink of civil war. Social media very far removed from reality. There are still very bigoted pockets but they are getting fewer and further between.

Thought he looked a bit of a tit when the English reporter asked him when was the last time he was in the UK and he had to admit it had been a few years.
100% there are alot of idiots who believe it all and think there is an jihad incoming just over the horizon.

[weareros]

I see that last week the lovely lovely Carla Loveheart went to meet some pupils of Boys Model in North Belfast. While there, she told them that Catholics fare much better because they use education and have one religion, one sport and one political party. I would love to hear what the headmaster thought of Carla's performance. Perhaps she would have been better telling the boys to stop building massive bonfires and read a book.

She forgot a few other differences