NFL Division 1 2025

Started by Blowitupref, January 15, 2025, 04:10:17 PM

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Who will win the Div 1 final

Kerry
2 (40%)
Mayo
3 (60%)

Total Members Voted: 5

Voting closed: March 29, 2025, 01:26:17 PM

onefineday

Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2025, 04:46:00 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2025, 04:42:41 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 17, 2025, 04:18:08 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2025, 03:27:58 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2025, 01:01:58 PMFor some reason this didn't post but I see from reading the league tables the final score/non score the Tyrone v Armagh game may become important.

It was discussed on this thread briefly previously but at the buzzer Tyrone took a shot just before the buzzer sounded, as it was in the air the buzzer went. Then Rafferty deflected it over the bar.

The umpire initially didn't wave the flag (correctly as I understand the rule) but McQuillian who was referring ran in and told him to do so.

I may have the broadcasters the wrong way round here but RTE didn't count the score but GAAGo and BBC did.

If Armagh and Tyrone win and Mayo loose and/or Kerry draw then that one point may be crucial.

To further confuse matters RTE seem to have counted the score in its points differential but GAA.ie have not.

Rte are correct... Why would the score not count? Game isn't over until the ball goes dead after the hooter*

*from a few days ago that is


The hooter had gone, the ball was kicked on the hooter but because Rafferty touched it the point shouldnt have counted.

Ahhh.. A game from weeks ago, only half read it. Sure you could go through multiple incidents in every game re scores

You could but I don't remember two news outlets reporting different scores for the one match.  My understanding of the rule at the time was the referee should not have allowed the score because Raferrty had a touch after the hooter but as he did then the score stood and that the RTE table is then correct and the gaa.ie table is incorrect.  I am not sure if there is an official source for the correct score but potentially although admittedly unlikely it could make a huge difference this weekend.
The point was initially flagged as a 2pt,but was touched so became 1pt, but then ref realised that the touch was after the hooter and disallowed it entirely.
Nonsense of course, it was a 2pt and should have remained as such.

onefineday

Quote from: balladmaker on March 17, 2025, 02:28:20 PMToo many dead rubbers towards last couple of rounds makes a mockery of the league.  Teams getting to the final because others don't want to be there, team's avoiding relegation because their opponents are playing their B side, it's a very strange competition. 

As for the rules, and specifically the hooter.  I thought the hooter played to the exact time of the game including stoppages.  So when it blows, that's the time up.  Why do the FRC think it appropriate for the game to be extended until a break in play, what's the rationale behind that?
It's never going to be exact, we're not playing nfl where seconds are added back. There's always an element of judgement as to when clock should or should not be stopped, this, very sensible amendment adds to the game and removes that potential for controversy around when the ball left the foot, see meath v Westmeath 2 weeks ago for example.

David McKeown

Quote from: onefineday on March 17, 2025, 11:38:31 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2025, 04:46:00 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2025, 04:42:41 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 17, 2025, 04:18:08 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2025, 03:27:58 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2025, 01:01:58 PMFor some reason this didn't post but I see from reading the league tables the final score/non score the Tyrone v Armagh game may become important.

It was discussed on this thread briefly previously but at the buzzer Tyrone took a shot just before the buzzer sounded, as it was in the air the buzzer went. Then Rafferty deflected it over the bar.

The umpire initially didn't wave the flag (correctly as I understand the rule) but McQuillian who was referring ran in and told him to do so.

I may have the broadcasters the wrong way round here but RTE didn't count the score but GAAGo and BBC did.

If Armagh and Tyrone win and Mayo loose and/or Kerry draw then that one point may be crucial.

To further confuse matters RTE seem to have counted the score in its points differential but GAA.ie have not.

Rte are correct... Why would the score not count? Game isn't over until the ball goes dead after the hooter*

*from a few days ago that is


The hooter had gone, the ball was kicked on the hooter but because Rafferty touched it the point shouldnt have counted.

Ahhh.. A game from weeks ago, only half read it. Sure you could go through multiple incidents in every game re scores

You could but I don't remember two news outlets reporting different scores for the one match.  My understanding of the rule at the time was the referee should not have allowed the score because Raferrty had a touch after the hooter but as he did then the score stood and that the RTE table is then correct and the gaa.ie table is incorrect.  I am not sure if there is an official source for the correct score but potentially although admittedly unlikely it could make a huge difference this weekend.
The point was initially flagged as a 2pt,but was touched so became 1pt, but then ref realised that the touch was after the hooter and disallowed it entirely.
Nonsense of course, it was a 2pt and should have remained as such.

That's not my memory at all. Rafferty definitely touched it after the hooter. Initially the umpire doesn't go for any flag then McQuillian runs in with an arm up then the umpire signals a point. So it definitely shouldn't have been a 2pt score or a score at all but RTE changed their graphic. BBC didn't. RTE have the final score 1-23 to 0-19. GAA.ie have it 1-23 to 0-18. I'm not sure it's possible to know which is correct

Hopefully it won't make a difference
2022 Allianz League Prediction Competition Winner


David McKeown

#1639
Just looking at the permutations and wow is it complicated. Just looking at relegation

If

Armagh and Tyrone lose then Tyrone are relegated.

If Armagh and Tyrone draw and Kerry avoid defeat the Tyrone are relegated

If Armagh and Tyrone draw and Kerry lose then Armagh are relegated until less Kerry are beaten by 20+ points (if they are then Kerry are relegated)

If Armagh and Tyrone win and Kerry lose then Kerry are relegated.

If Armagh Tyrone, Kerry all win and Mayo avoid defeat then Tyrone are relegated.

If Armagh and Tyrone win, Kerry draw and Mayo lose then it will depend on the points swing.  Which is where it gets really complicated because any one of Armagh (most likely) Tyrone (least likely) or Mayo could go down.

If Armagh win, Tyrone win, Kerry draw and Mayo avoid defeat then again it comes down to scoring difference with again Armagh most likely to be relegated but Tyrone and Kerry could be relegated albeit it would take an Armagh win by 20 points and Tyrone to win by 12. to relegate Kerry

If Armagh, Tyrone, and Kerry win and Mayo lose then again it will come down to points swing which could be close. Armagh would be most likely to be relegated in such a scenario and Tyrone least likely to

Making the final is a little more straightforward I think but only a little more.

So Mayo and Kerry have avoiding relegation in their own hands.  So technically does Armagh but only if they win by 20 points or more.  Tyrone do not but probably need the least surprising other results to avoid relegation .
2022 Allianz League Prediction Competition Winner

Armagh18

Quote from: onefineday on March 17, 2025, 11:38:31 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2025, 04:46:00 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2025, 04:42:41 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 17, 2025, 04:18:08 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2025, 03:27:58 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2025, 01:01:58 PMFor some reason this didn't post but I see from reading the league tables the final score/non score the Tyrone v Armagh game may become important.

It was discussed on this thread briefly previously but at the buzzer Tyrone took a shot just before the buzzer sounded, as it was in the air the buzzer went. Then Rafferty deflected it over the bar.

The umpire initially didn't wave the flag (correctly as I understand the rule) but McQuillian who was referring ran in and told him to do so.

I may have the broadcasters the wrong way round here but RTE didn't count the score but GAAGo and BBC did.

If Armagh and Tyrone win and Mayo loose and/or Kerry draw then that one point may be crucial.

To further confuse matters RTE seem to have counted the score in its points differential but GAA.ie have not.

Rte are correct... Why would the score not count? Game isn't over until the ball goes dead after the hooter*

*from a few days ago that is


The hooter had gone, the ball was kicked on the hooter but because Rafferty touched it the point shouldnt have counted.

Ahhh.. A game from weeks ago, only half read it. Sure you could go through multiple incidents in every game re scores

You could but I don't remember two news outlets reporting different scores for the one match.  My understanding of the rule at the time was the referee should not have allowed the score because Raferrty had a touch after the hooter but as he did then the score stood and that the RTE table is then correct and the gaa.ie table is incorrect.  I am not sure if there is an official source for the correct score but potentially although admittedly unlikely it could make a huge difference this weekend.
The point was initially flagged as a 2pt,but was touched so became 1pt, but then ref realised that the touch was after the hooter and disallowed it entirely.
Nonsense of course, it was a 2pt and should have remained as such.
No it shouldn't as that would be against the new rules.

tonto1888

Quote from: Armagh18 on March 18, 2025, 06:39:33 AM
Quote from: onefineday on March 17, 2025, 11:38:31 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2025, 04:46:00 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2025, 04:42:41 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 17, 2025, 04:18:08 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2025, 03:27:58 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2025, 01:01:58 PMFor some reason this didn't post but I see from reading the league tables the final score/non score the Tyrone v Armagh game may become important.

It was discussed on this thread briefly previously but at the buzzer Tyrone took a shot just before the buzzer sounded, as it was in the air the buzzer went. Then Rafferty deflected it over the bar.

The umpire initially didn't wave the flag (correctly as I understand the rule) but McQuillian who was referring ran in and told him to do so.

I may have the broadcasters the wrong way round here but RTE didn't count the score but GAAGo and BBC did.

If Armagh and Tyrone win and Mayo loose and/or Kerry draw then that one point may be crucial.

To further confuse matters RTE seem to have counted the score in its points differential but GAA.ie have not.

Rte are correct... Why would the score not count? Game isn't over until the ball goes dead after the hooter*

*from a few days ago that is


The hooter had gone, the ball was kicked on the hooter but because Rafferty touched it the point shouldnt have counted.

Ahhh.. A game from weeks ago, only half read it. Sure you could go through multiple incidents in every game re scores

You could but I don't remember two news outlets reporting different scores for the one match.  My understanding of the rule at the time was the referee should not have allowed the score because Raferrty had a touch after the hooter but as he did then the score stood and that the RTE table is then correct and the gaa.ie table is incorrect.  I am not sure if there is an official source for the correct score but potentially although admittedly unlikely it could make a huge difference this weekend.
The point was initially flagged as a 2pt,but was touched so became 1pt, but then ref realised that the touch was after the hooter and disallowed it entirely.
Nonsense of course, it was a 2pt and should have remained as such.
No it shouldn't as that would be against the new rules.

the rules for the weekend past or the rules for when that game was played?

armaghniac

Quote from: David McKeown on March 18, 2025, 01:03:02 AMIf Armagh win, Tyrone win, Kerry draw and Mayo avoid defeat then again it comes down to scoring difference with again Armagh most likely to be relegated but Tyrone and Kerry could be relegated albeit it would take an Armagh win by 20 points and Tyrone to win by 12. to relegate Kerry

Is there not also a scenario here where Armagh win by 12 points more than Tyrone and so Tyrone go down?
Not especially likely, but Tyrone are likely to have a battle against Dublin and Derry might choose to direct their training towards the Ulster championship and give a few lads a run out. I expect that Derry would just as soon relegate Tyrone as Armagh.

Armagh really should have made a better effort in Tralee and reduced the scoring differences.
MAGA Make Armagh Great Again

Applesisapples

Rian O'Neill is going to be a huge loss to Armagh this year, I was looking forward to him and Oisin starting, they offer so much threat when both are on the field together.

imtommygunn

He would have been perfect for 2 pointers.

I don't think armagh will be the same team without him - I have never been sold on his attitude(though have on ability) but he really stood up at crucial times last year.

David McKeown

#1645
Quote from: armaghniac on March 18, 2025, 11:25:07 AM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 18, 2025, 01:03:02 AMIf Armagh win, Tyrone win, Kerry draw and Mayo avoid defeat then again it comes down to scoring difference with again Armagh most likely to be relegated but Tyrone and Kerry could be relegated albeit it would take an Armagh win by 20 points and Tyrone to win by 12. to relegate Kerry

Is there not also a scenario here where Armagh win by 12 points more than Tyrone and so Tyrone go down?
Not especially likely, but Tyrone are likely to have a battle against Dublin and Derry might choose to direct their training towards the Ulster championship and give a few lads a run out. I expect that Derry would just as soon relegate Tyrone as Armagh.

Armagh really should have made a better effort in Tralee and reduced the scoring differences.

Yes but it's very strange. It needs Armagh to outscore Tyrone by either 8 or 10 points (depending on what the actual correct result was) and one or both of the following two things to happen. Either a Kerry draw where Tyrone have won by no more than 12. And/Or Tyrone to win by 1 and Mayo to lose by 1 (again depending on the correct score in Armagh v Tyrone). I think that is so improbable that I left it out.
2022 Allianz League Prediction Competition Winner

Cunny Funt

Any Div 1 or 2 match not live on TV or the app this weekend will be live on YouTube fair play to TG4.

Blowitupref

From the Irish News


Galway (v Kerry)
- A Galway win almost certainly guarantees their place in the league final
- If Galway draw, Dublin and Donegal win, Galway will finish third
- If Galway draw, Dublin and Mayo win, Galway will reach the league final on head-to-head against Mayo
- If Galway (+17) draw, Dublin (+8) draw and Mayo (--3) win, Galway would reach the league final unless Mayo won by 20 points or more
- If Galway lose and Dublin win or draw, Galway would finish third at best and potentially as low as fifth
- If Galway lose and Dublin lose, one of Donegal or Mayo will reach the final. If Mayo and Donegal draw, Donegal will qualify and Mayo (-3) will join Galway (+17), Kerry (+11) and Dublin (+8) on eight points, with the team that finishes with the best score difference qualifying for the final.
- If Galway lose, Dublin lose and Mayo win, Mayo will reach the league final and be joined by the team with the best score difference of Galway (+17), Kerry (+11), Dublin (+8) and Donegal (+4) as they'll all have finished level on eight points.
- Galway cannot be relegated

Kerry (v Galway)
- A win guarantees safety
- With a score difference of +11, a draw would almost certainly achieve safety, barring a freak set of results
- If Kerry lose but either of Armagh or Tyrone fail to win, Kerry would stay up
- If Kerry lose and both Armagh and Tyrone win, Kerry would be relegated
- If Kerry (+11) win, Dublin (+8) and Galway (+17) lose and Donegal win, whichever of the three has the best score difference would face Donegal in the final.
- If Kerry (+11) win, Dublin (+8) and Galway (+17) lose and Mayo win, whichever of Kerry, Dublin, Galway and Donegal (+4) has the best score difference would qualify with Mayo.
- Kerry cannot reach the league final if two of Donegal, Dublin and Galway win or draw

Dublin (v Tyrone)

- If Dublin win, they will reach the league final
- If Dublin, Donegal and Galway all draw, Dublin will reach the league final
- If Dublin draw, Donegal and Galway win, Dublin will finish third
- If Dublin draw, Donegal win and Kerry win, Dublin would reach the league final
- If Dublin draw, Mayo and Galway win, Dublin would reach the league final
- If Dublin (+8) draw, Galway (+17) draw and Mayo (-3) win, Dublin would reach the league final unless Mayo won by at least 11 points
- If Dublin lose, they cannot reach the league final as either Donegal or Mayo would be guaranteed to overtake them

Donegal (v Mayo)
- If Donegal win and either Dublin or Galway fail to win, Donegal would reach the league final
- If Donegal, Dublin and Galway all win or all draw, Donegal would finish third
- If Donegal (+4), Dublin (+8) and Galway (+17) all lose, Donegal could not reach the league final
- Donegal cannot be relegated

Mayo (v Donegal)
- A win guarantees safety
- A draw guarantees safety
- If Mayo lose and Tyrone and Armagh both win, and Kerry either win or lose, one of Mayo (-3), Tyrone (0) or Armagh (-8) would be relegated on score difference
- If Mayo lose, Tyrone and Armagh both win and Kerry draw, whichever of those four finishes with the lowest score difference would be relegated
- If Mayo draw, they will be safe but highly unlikely to reach the league final
- If Mayo win and either Dublin or Galway lose, Mayo would reach the Division One final
- If Mayo win, Dublin draw and Galway win, Mayo would finish third on head-to-head v Dublin
- If Mayo win, Galway draw and Dublin win, Mayo would finish third on head-to-head v Galway

Armagh (v Derry)
- A win would keep Armagh (+8) up unless Tyrone (0) win, Mayo (-3) lose and Kerry win, in which case it would come down to score difference between Armagh, Tyrone and Mayo
- A draw would keep Armagh up if Tyrone lose
- If both Armagh and Tyrone lose, Armagh stay up on head-to-head
- If Armagh draw and Tyrone win, Armagh would be relegated because of their head-to-head record against Kerry
- If Armagh (-8) draw, Tyrone (0) draw and Kerry (+11) lose, Armagh would be relegated unless Kerry lost by 20 points or more
- If Armagh (-8) and Tyrone (0) win, Kerry (+11) draw and Mayo (-3) lose, the team with the worst score difference of the four is relegated. Armagh would need their win coupled with the margin of Mayo's defeat to cause a six-point swing unless Armagh score at least five more points than Mayo on Sunday. If Armagh score five more than Mayo in that scenario, a five-point swing in score difference would be enough.
- Armagh cannot reach the league final

Tyrone (v Dublin)
- Defeat means relegation, regardless of other results, because of their head-to-head record v Armagh
- A draw would only keep Tyrone up if Armagh lose
- A win would keep Tyrone up if Armagh or Kerry lose
- If Tyrone and Armagh both win and Kerry lose, Kerry would go down
- If Tyrone, Armagh and Kerry all win and Mayo lose, it comes down to score difference between Tyrone (0), Mayo (-3) and Armagh (-8)
- If Tyrone, Armagh and Mayo all win and Kerry lose, the team with the worst score difference between Tyrone, Armagh, Mayo and Kerry would go down
- Tyrone cannot reach the league final

Derry (v Mayo)
- Derry are relegated and can only finish bottom
Is the ref going to finally blow his whistle?... No, he's going to blow his nose

David McKeown

They are slightly wrong on the Armagh one about this.
2022 Allianz League Prediction Competition Winner

armaghniac

The forecast for Sunday is a definite Northerly wind, with rain earlier in the day with rain possibly still in Armagh at game time.
MAGA Make Armagh Great Again