Irish mercenaries, unionist coat trailers and the Bard of Dunclug

[delboy]

I don't buy this either. If you consider that the majorty of people in the UK and the USA are against the current war in Iraq then I don't believe that this protest could have a negative effect on 95% of unionists. Surely, within Unionism, there is a large amount of people who are against the war in Iraq.

You miss one very important part of the equation, yes lots of people in the UK and USA are against the war but almost all are in favour of the troops and thats a very important disctinction.
Yesterdays protests would be construed as anti-troops and therefore not very popular to say the least.

Is that why numerous cities in the UK decided against similar parades?

So you think britsh troops are unpopular in the UK?

I see you also conviently left the US out of your reply, i wonder why??

[Donagh]

I had refrained till now to reply to this post as I saw something completely different myself on Sunday morning.  As a resident of the Lower Falls, with a clear view of all events I saw clearly loads of spides and wannabee RA 'men' complete with Celtic jerseys I might add.  I know that some former Provo prisoners showed their heads as well.  I am not saying that the crowd was full of rabble as it most clearly was not, there were people there purely out of conviction and truthfully there were more there out of conviction than there were scumbags.

The point I am making is that things were not as you portrayed them.  Scumbags were present and also... I spotted loads of Shinners in close proximity to events outside StMarys school.  It had been suggested in one of the Sunday papers that the Shinners did some sort of deal with the various dissident groups.  From what I witnessed on Sunday, I am inclined to believe it.

By the way, the reference to Celtic jerseys I made is borne out by pics in local newspapers this morning  

I'm not sure what you are getting at or what part of my post you are objecting to. Is it the bit about Celtic tops? I didn't see any at éirígí protest and there were no spides taking part in the protest. A few hangers-on came up behind while the protest was at the PSNI lines but the were quickly dealt with by the marshals.

Your intimations that eirigi are a sound bunch of people ring hollow with what I saw for myself.

Do you understand?

My what? I said the protest was disciplined, dignified and respectful. What part of that are you disagreeing with?

[Donagh]

How do you mean a "fraction of their usual supporters"? As far as I was aware that's the largest protest éirígí have staged in the two years of their existence

Does that in itself not prove that they have no popular support?

I'm sorry, did I say somewhere they had popular support? As far as I know they are a fairly recently formed pressure group and as such I wouldn't expect them to have much popular support. Are you trying to say only groups with popular support are entitled to protest?

[Evil Genius]

Taking your figures from the 2005 Election, 400,179 amounts to 55.77% of the turnout:
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/election/rw2005.htm
Therefore, we may conclude that 55.77% of the population of NI is Unionist. The nearest reliable population figure I can get for 2005 is (an estimated) 1,741,600 in 2006:

And 55.77% of 1,741,600 works out at 971,290.
Fair enough, if you want to make a liar out of me for 28,710 people then go ahead, knock yourself out...

P.S. I'd enjoy your little victory whilst you can, for as the NIO points out "...The population of Northern Ireland is projected to increase by seventy thousand people (4%) over the five years from 2006 to 2011". With 55.77% of 70,000 amounting to 39,039, I'd say Unionism will hit the million mark some time towards the end of next year, or early 2010!

No you may not conclude any such thing other than there are 400k unionists. Just as valid, or more likely than your conclusion, is the assert that the those who don't vote don't give a feck, so you may not presume they are unionist. Those kind of arrogant assumptions is tribalism at it worst, as is the rest of that particular post. There are not and never have been 1 million unionists or anywhere near it.   

Then by your logic, if there only 400,179 Unionists in NI, then there are only 301,825 Nationalists in NI. Or, to express it another way, 55.3% of the voting population of NI is Unionist, whereas only 41.7% is Nationalist.
Or if you prefer, 23.0% of the total population of NI is Unionist, and 17.3% is Nationalist.
Either way, I'm beginning to like this Psephology mullarkey more and more...

[Maguire01]

How do you mean a "fraction of their usual supporters"? As far as I was aware that's the largest protest éirígí have staged in the two years of their existence

Does that in itself not prove that they have no popular support?

I'm sorry, did I say somewhere they had popular support? As far as I know they are a fairly recently formed pressure group and as such I wouldn't expect them to have much popular support. Are you trying to say only groups with popular support are entitled to protest?

They're entitled to protest, if the so wish. But they're unlikely to be taken seriously.

[Donagh]

Taking your figures from the 2005 Election, 400,179 amounts to 55.77% of the turnout:
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/election/rw2005.htm
Therefore, we may conclude that 55.77% of the population of NI is Unionist. The nearest reliable population figure I can get for 2005 is (an estimated) 1,741,600 in 2006:

And 55.77% of 1,741,600 works out at 971,290.
Fair enough, if you want to make a liar out of me for 28,710 people then go ahead, knock yourself out...

P.S. I'd enjoy your little victory whilst you can, for as the NIO points out "...The population of Northern Ireland is projected to increase by seventy thousand people (4%) over the five years from 2006 to 2011". With 55.77% of 70,000 amounting to 39,039, I'd say Unionism will hit the million mark some time towards the end of next year, or early 2010!

No you may not conclude any such thing other than there are 400k unionists. Just as valid, or more likely than your conclusion, is the assert that the those who don't vote don't give a feck, so you may not presume they are unionist. Those kind of arrogant assumptions is tribalism at it worst, as is the rest of that particular post. There are not and never have been 1 million unionists or anywhere near it.   

Then by your logic, if there only 400,179 Unionists in NI, then there are only 301,825 Nationalists in NI. Or, to express it another way, 55.3% of the voting population of NI is Unionist, whereas only 41.7% is Nationalist.
Or if you prefer, 23.0% of the total population of NI is Unionist, and 17.3% is Nationalist.
Either way, I'm beginning to like this Psephology mullarkey more and more...

I have already said that you are wrong when you say there are 1 million unionists. Now if you would like to contradict that and produce evidence there are more than 400k, then go ahead. Otherwise, let's try to stay on topic.

[Donagh]

They're entitled to protest, if the so wish. But they're unlikely to be taken seriously.

Perhaps, but they have to start somewhere.

[ardmhachaabu]

Donagh, it was your contention in the post I quoted you from initially where you said there wasn't a Celtic top to be seen.

That is blatantly bullshit.  There are photos of eirigi ones in the local media clearly showing several punters towards the forefront of the eirigi ones who are wearing Celtic jerseys. 

I didn't suggest that eirigi had misbehaved in any way, from what I have heard of the speeches, the leaders would have had a different outcome if they had had their way.

[Maguire01]

I have already said that you are wrong when you say there are 1 million unionists. Now if you would like to contradict that and produce evidence there are more than 400k, then go ahead. Otherwise, let's try to stay on topic.

I assume the 1m figure is based on the 'Protestant' population from the last NI census (which is around 900,000). Obviously Protestant = Unionist isn't entirely scientific, but it's probably close enough(?)

[Evil Genius]

I have already said that you are wrong when you say there are 1 million unionists. Now if you would like to contradict that and produce evidence there are more than 400k, then go ahead.

Fine. You are quite correct. There are only 400k Unionists in NI. So remind me again, how many Nationalists are there?

[Maiden1]

Why does it have to be a nationist parade against the war in Iraq?  Why not just a parade against the war?  To me it is a moral issue and nothing to do with who a person would vote for.

[Evil Genius]

I have already said that you are wrong when you say there are 1 million unionists. Now if you would like to contradict that and produce evidence there are more than 400k, then go ahead. Otherwise, let's try to stay on topic.

I assume the 1m figure is based on the 'Protestant' population from the last NI census (which is around 900,000). Obviously Protestant = Unionist isn't entirely scientific, but it's probably close enough(?)

It was I who cited the "1 million Unionists in NI" claim. Donagh disputed this, on the basis that Unionist Parties (DUP, UUP, Alliance, Conservative) only received 400,179 votes in the 2005 Election.
Which caused me to post the following:

Taking your figures from the 2005 Election, 400,179 amounts to 55.77% of the turnout:
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/election/rw2005.htm
Therefore, we may conclude that 55.77% of the population of NI is Unionist. The nearest reliable population figure I can get for 2005 is (an estimated) 1,741,600 in 2006:
http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/news/news-dfp/news-dfp-february-2008/news-dfp-280208-overall-population-growth.htm
And 55.77% of 1,741,600 works out at 971,290.
Fair enough, if you want to make a liar out of me for 28,710 people then go ahead, knock yourself out...

P.S. I'd enjoy your little victory whilst you can, for as the NIO points out "...The population of Northern Ireland is projected to increase by seventy thousand people (4%) over the five years from 2006 to 2011". With 55.77% of 70,000 amounting to 39,039, I'd say Unionism will hit the million mark some time towards the end of next year, or early 2010!  

[Maguire01]

Why does it have to be a nationist parade against the war in Iraq?  Why not just a parade against the war?  To me it is a moral issue and nothing to do with who a person would vote for.

Eh, because it was organised by SF?

EDIT: And on the basis of RIR activity in NI, against Nationalists.

[Maguire01]

P.S. I'd enjoy your little victory whilst you can, for as the NIO points out "...The population of Northern Ireland is projected to increase by seventy thousand people (4%) over the five years from 2006 to 2011". With 55.77% of 70,000 amounting to 39,039, I'd say Unionism will hit the million mark some time towards the end of next year, or early 2010!

Yes, but whatever about the rest of your argument, this doesn't really stack up as the Protestant population is generally regarded as being in decline - so the majority of these extra 70,000 will likely be Catholic. Or neither.

[Donagh]

Donagh, it was your contention in the post I quoted you from initially where you said there wasn't a Celtic top to be seen.

That is blatantly bullshit.  There are photos of eirigi ones in the local media clearly showing several punters towards the forefront of the eirigi ones who are wearing Celtic jerseys. 

I didn't suggest that eirigi had misbehaved in any way, from what I have heard of the speeches, the leaders would have had a different outcome if they had had their way.

Perhaps you would like to post these photos or tell me who published them. I said I didn't see any Celtic tops and as I was telling the truth, it wasn't bullshit. I also mentioned the same to a few mates who were up from Dublin and they confirmed it also. Now we were all in amongst the crowd and perhaps didn't notice those on the outside as you may have done, but we were mingling for about half an hour beforehand and didn't see any.