All-Ireland Series Sam Maguire 2026

David McKeown · June 14, 2026, 08:40:09 PM

Quote from: blanketattack on June 14, 2026, 07:44:52 PMProbabilities for Draw:
Mon-Don 50% Mon-WMe 50%
Wme-Ker 25% Wme-Mea 25%
Don-Dub 25% Don-Mea 25%
May-Dub 37.5% May-Mea 25% May-Ker 37.5%
Arm-Mea 25% Arm-Dub 37.5% Arm-Ker 37.5%

I don't think that's right. Does that not consider each teams odds in isolation.

I thought there were 7 possible out comes.

Option 1
Monaghan v Westmeath
Kerry v Armagh
Dublin v Donegal
Meath v Mayo

Option 2
Monaghan v Westmeath
Kerry v Armagh
Dublin v Mayo
Meath v Donegal

Option 3
Monaghan v Westmeath
Kerry v Mayo
Dublin v Donegal
Meath v Armagh

Option 4
Monaghan v Westmeath
Kerry v Mayo
Dublin v Armagh
Meath v Donegal

Option 5
Monaghan v Donegal
Kerry v Armagh
Dublin v Mayo
Meath v Westmeath

Option 6
Monaghan v Donegal
Kerry v Westmeath
Dublin v Mayo
Meath v Armagh

Option 7
Monaghan v Donegal
Kerry v Westmeath
Dublin v Armagh
Meath v Mayo

So Monaghan will draw Westmeath in 4/7 of draws and Donegal in 3/7

Kerry draw Armagh in 3/7 Westmeath in 2/7 and Mayo in 2/7

Dublin draw Donegal in 2/7 Mayo in 3/7 and Armagh in 2/7

Meath draw Mayo in 2/7 Armagh in 2/7 Donegal in 2/7 and Meath in 1/7

Armagh draw Kerry in 3/7 Meath in 2/7 and Dublin 2/7

Westmeath drawn Monaghan in 4/7 and Meath in 1/7 and Kerry in 2/7

Donegal draw Monaghan in 3/7 Dublin in 2/7 and Meath in 2/7

Mayo draw Meath in 2/7 Dublin in 3/7 and Kerry in 2/7

Have I missed one or more possible outcomes?

David McKeown · June 14, 2026, 08:50:51 PM

Quote from: David McKeown on June 14, 2026, 08:40:09 PM
Quote from: blanketattack on June 14, 2026, 07:44:52 PMProbabilities for Draw:
Mon-Don 50% Mon-WMe 50%
Wme-Ker 25% Wme-Mea 25%
Don-Dub 25% Don-Mea 25%
May-Dub 37.5% May-Mea 25% May-Ker 37.5%
Arm-Mea 25% Arm-Dub 37.5% Arm-Ker 37.5%

I don't think that's right. Does that not consider each teams odds in isolation.

I thought there were 7 possible out comes.

Option 1
Monaghan v Westmeath
Kerry v Armagh
Dublin v Donegal
Meath v Mayo

Option 2
Monaghan v Westmeath
Kerry v Armagh
Dublin v Mayo
Meath v Donegal

Option 3
Monaghan v Westmeath
Kerry v Mayo
Dublin v Donegal
Meath v Armagh

Option 4
Monaghan v Westmeath
Kerry v Mayo
Dublin v Armagh
Meath v Donegal

Option 5
Monaghan v Donegal
Kerry v Armagh
Dublin v Mayo
Meath v Westmeath

Option 6
Monaghan v Donegal
Kerry v Westmeath
Dublin v Mayo
Meath v Armagh

Option 7
Monaghan v Donegal
Kerry v Westmeath
Dublin v Armagh
Meath v Mayo

So Monaghan will draw Westmeath in 4/7 of draws and Donegal in 3/7

Kerry draw Armagh in 3/7 Westmeath in 2/7 and Mayo in 2/7

Dublin draw Donegal in 2/7 Mayo in 3/7 and Armagh in 2/7

Meath draw Mayo in 2/7 Armagh in 2/7 Donegal in 2/7 and Meath in 1/7

Armagh draw Kerry in 3/7 Meath in 2/7 and Dublin 2/7

Westmeath drawn Monaghan in 4/7 and Meath in 1/7 and Kerry in 2/7

Donegal draw Monaghan in 3/7 Dublin in 2/7 and Meath in 2/7

Mayo draw Meath in 2/7 Dublin in 3/7 and Kerry in 2/7

Have I missed one or more possible outcomes?

Yes I missed one

Monaghan v Donegal
Kerry v Mayo
Dublin v Armagh
Meath v Westmeath

The original stats are correct. Never mind me.

Main Street · June 14, 2026, 09:35:39 PM

Quote from: 2ndstringsub on June 14, 2026, 05:32:56 PM
Quote from: 2ndstringsub on June 13, 2026, 04:51:03 PM
Quote from: 2ndstringsub on June 11, 2026, 08:25:26 AMGood Morning All

Subs picks coming up..

Donegal V Cork Donegal get pipped by a swashbuckling Cork team
Galway V Westmeath Galway by 5+
Tyrone V Mayo Tyrone finally put a performance together to beat a bang average Mayo outfit
Louth V Armagh Louth have banned the sale of buckfast for 5 miles so crowd is dull & Armaghs shooting efficency finally catches up to them

Derry V Meath Forget about injuries Meath will swat away any hopes of a revival from Derry
Kildare V Kerry Yera Yera the Kingdom by at least a handful
Cavan V Dublin Dublin in dissaray will scrape by Cavan
Monaghan V Roscommon Monaghans age and overall form finally catch up in the AI

I'll look forward to the rest of these results coming in..

UP THE REBELS!

Had I known about roscommons sickly talisman id have called that differently too. 6/7 not bad at all.

Great end to a good weekend of football Look forward to Quarters now with Tyrone.

Monaghan would've beaten the Rossies even with their talisman.
You can be forgiven that one serious erratum seeing as most every pundit went for the Rossies as well as every non-farney on board here. In fact if you thought Monaghan (your own county) had a fair chance you were deemed "cocky" by the fanatics. The prevailing dogma that held the Rossies as being infallible was something fierce.

Schkite · June 14, 2026, 09:51:06 PM

Quote from: Main Street on June 14, 2026, 09:35:39 PM
Quote from: 2ndstringsub on June 14, 2026, 05:32:56 PM
Quote from: 2ndstringsub on June 13, 2026, 04:51:03 PM
Quote from: 2ndstringsub on June 11, 2026, 08:25:26 AMGood Morning All

Subs picks coming up..

Donegal V Cork Donegal get pipped by a swashbuckling Cork team
Galway V Westmeath Galway by 5+
Tyrone V Mayo Tyrone finally put a performance together to beat a bang average Mayo outfit
Louth V Armagh Louth have banned the sale of buckfast for 5 miles so crowd is dull & Armaghs shooting efficency finally catches up to them

Derry V Meath Forget about injuries Meath will swat away any hopes of a revival from Derry
Kildare V Kerry Yera Yera the Kingdom by at least a handful
Cavan V Dublin Dublin in dissaray will scrape by Cavan
Monaghan V Roscommon Monaghans age and overall form finally catch up in the AI

I'll look forward to the rest of these results coming in..

UP THE REBELS!

Had I known about roscommons sickly talisman id have called that differently too. 6/7 not bad at all.

Great end to a good weekend of football Look forward to Quarters now with Tyrone.
Monaghan would've beaten the Rossies even with their talisman.
You can be forgiven that one serious erratum seeing as most every pundit went for the Rossies as well as every non-farney on board here. In fact if you thought Monaghan (your own county) had a fair chance you were deemed "cocky" by the fanatics. The prevailing dogma that held the Rossies as being infallible was something fierce.

This reasoning of "Monaghan's age catching up to them" seems a bit odd and outdated too tbh. Would have made much more sense a couple years ago when you had a handful of lads in their late 30s still playing big parts - but now I think there's a nice mix in the squad of young lads bursting through, those in the mid to late 20s who have been around a while, and a handful of lads in the early 30s who have tons of experience but still plenty more to give too in most cases.

SouthDublinBro · June 14, 2026, 11:27:36 PM

The 2 pointer rule definitely suits Monaghan and Tyrone more than Armagh or Donegal who rely more on goals and "safe" points from close range.

From the Bunker · June 14, 2026, 11:51:38 PM

Quote from: SouthDublinBro on June 14, 2026, 11:27:36 PMThe 2 pointer rule definitely suits Monaghan and Tyrone more than Dublin or Armagh or Donegal who rely more on goals and "safe" points from close range.

Fixed that for you....

Gael85 · June 14, 2026, 11:51:55 PM

Quote from: blanketattack on June 14, 2026, 07:44:52 PMProbabilities for Draw:
Mon-Don 50% Mon-WMe 50%
Wme-Ker 25% Wme-Mea 25%
Don-Dub 25% Don-Mea 25%
May-Dub 37.5% May-Mea 25% May-Ker 37.5%
Arm-Mea 25% Arm-Dub 37.5% Arm-Ker 37.5%

Edit:

Kerry v Westmeath 100% 50% Tralee or Mullingar 😉

Gael85 · June 14, 2026, 11:55:35 PM

Quote from: cavanmaniac on June 14, 2026, 07:29:31 PMPredictable result in Kingspan Breffni, a predictable Cavan performance and predictable exit. Both defences had gaps in the first half and although Dubs were getting scores that bit easier, Cavan were standing firm enough and only one down at the break. Until the 20th minute of the second half, the result was still a live issue but trailing by four or five, Cavan, by then living off scraps in attack, butchered a number of very scoreable opportunities they'd found very hard to come by. One of them a fortuitous goal chance that Gerry Smith just leathered like a donkey and hoped for the best. Real ploughman's stuff although to his credit, he had a very busy game otherwise and managed a point with this effort. You're just a pretence of an intercounty team when you're so brittle and lacking composure when the heat comes on and opportunites present, but very sadly, that's now very firmly Cavan's ingrained footballing culture, as evidenced by our minors' shitting the bed against Tyrone. You knew these misses would eventually drain our bravehearts (punishing conditions notwithstanding) and they'd soon check out mentally, so we duly caved in and Dublin won pulling up, despite not having played overly well themselves. There are no more soft touch opponents like Cavan left for the Dubs in the draw now, whose goalies will be handing them chance after chance, with lads missing points from 14 yards out and setting up their counter attacks.

That's McCabe's first year done. No real uptick or change of culture evident. Retirements incoming. Another season where we went through the motions gamely enough and gave a passable impression of a footballing county, but it's now going to get worse before it gets better.

We won't be winning any more matches after today. Basquel and McGarry made a big difference off the bench. Cavan kicked too many wides in both halves.

ClubScene13 · June 15, 2026, 12:17:02 AM

Quote from: SouthDublinBro on June 14, 2026, 11:27:36 PMThe 2 pointer rule definitely suits Monaghan and Tyrone more than Armagh or Donegal who rely more on goals and "safe" points from close range.

Any Tyrone man will tell you we have little to no 2 point threat from play. Genuinely most of our forwards do not have the range to kick them.

Jordan and Morgan from frees is our threat, Jordan will kick the odd one from play if he's on the pitch but that's not a given, that's about the height of it.

thebigfullforward · June 15, 2026, 07:16:05 AM

Quote from: DaleCooper on June 14, 2026, 08:05:12 PMHave to feel for big O Shea the service hes given Mayo. Of course if he kicked a fairly simple score Moran would be hailed a genius, but maybe friendships and loyalty can mess with good judgement.

Same era as P Harte who some were hoping may make a return for the hard ground.

Think Harte has more to offer due to his 2 point threat. Good to see the younger players taking on the challenge though

Schkite · June 15, 2026, 08:43:39 AM

Monaghan v Westmeath
Dublin v Donegal
Mayo v Meath
Kerry v Armagh

Teams named 1st are at home

bennydorano · June 15, 2026, 08:46:53 AM

Season over.

straightred · June 15, 2026, 08:47:17 AM

Severe punishment dished out to Armagh for no closing out yestetday's game

tonto1888 · June 15, 2026, 08:47:57 AM

Quote from: bennydorano on June 15, 2026, 08:46:53 AMSeason over.

would have to beat them at some stage. May as well be now..........

Armagh18 · June 15, 2026, 08:48:35 AM

Bring them on. Time to see where we really stand.