UK/North economy

[seafoid]

That article is 8 years ago. I'm not saying that there is not cause for concern, but a new analysis is needed.

You need a model for inflation and volatility

[imtommygunn]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Paste that article across if possible
Piling into my pension atm, conscious also that the macro-economics could just as easily tank the value of it any time, the later the worse and all

If you can choose the investment you just need to switch the money into cash when inflation and volatility kick off. This avoids huge losses and you can buy stuff cheap when the markets recover. The returns are much higher. At least 10% a year.

So buy low sell high SF 

[marty34]

I presume lodging money into a private pension when young is the way to go.

Never too late to start though.

But hard to know at times who to go with I think. I wouldn't have a clue. 

[seafoid]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Paste that article across if possible
Piling into my pension atm, conscious also that the macro-economics could just as easily tank the value of it any time, the later the worse and all

If you can choose the investment you just need to switch the money into cash when inflation and volatility kick off. This avoids huge losses and you can buy stuff cheap when the markets recover. The returns are much higher. At least 10% a year.

So buy low sell high SF 

If you started in 2018 with business as usual with 100 you would have 130 now.
With no losses you would have 450. You get losses every 2 years now. Losses in 2020, 2023, 2025 and 2026. Stripping out the losses is massive.

[dec]

If you started in 2018 with business as usual with 100 you would have 130 now.
With no losses you would have 450. You get losses every 2 years now. Losses in 2020, 2023, 2025 and 2026. Stripping out the losses is massive.

Spotting losses after the fact is relatively easy. Working out when they are going to happen ahead of time is much more difficult. Anyone who tells you they know how to do it is lying.

[imtommygunn]

I presume lodging money into a private pension when young is the way to go.

Never too late to start though.

But hard to know at times who to go with I think. I wouldn't have a clue. 

There's going to be ni contributions on pensions over a certain amount in the uk too. I think it's 2029. That will put a dampener on the big pension contributions!

[seafoid]

If you started in 2018 with business as usual with 100 you would have 130 now.
With no losses you would have 450. You get losses every 2 years now. Losses in 2020, 2023, 2025 and 2026. Stripping out the losses is massive.

Spotting losses after the fact is relatively easy. Working out when they are going to happen ahead of time is much more difficult. Anyone who tells you they know how to do it is lying.

There is a volatility index called the VIX. It takes time to reach a peak. If you monitor that and have a trigger point it works

For inflation you need to follow the macro economy.

It's about being responsive to changes in conditions. You need to know what to look out for.

[freddy221]

That IMF forecast is pretty grim. Seeing the UK singled out for the biggest shock in the G7 makes you wonder how the current strategy can actually counter such high inflation and stagnant growth. Tough times ahead for living standards if those predictions hold.

[Milltown Row2]

Who the feck has time to monitor all that?

Just find a wee home earner for retirement that's not too taxing  and flexible

[MrsBinfield]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Should this be filed under made up shit or have you actually evidence that in any general sense pension funds lost around 50% of assets (by which i presume you mean value)?

[seafoid]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Should this be filed under made up shit or have you actually evidence that in any general sense pension funds lost around 50% of assets (by which i presume you mean value)?

There were 2 asset bubbles between 2020 and 2025. every time an asset bubble collapses there are losses
Equity losses
2020 32%
Oct 22 24%

[MrsBinfield]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Should this be filed under made up shit or have you actually evidence that in any general sense pension funds lost around 50% of assets (by which i presume you mean value)?

There were 2 asset bubbles between 2020 and 2025. every time an asset bubble collapses there are losses
Equity losses
2020 32%
Oct 22 24%

Was just looking for the evidence that pensions generally lost 50% of their value between 2020 and 2025. Maybe you have that or maybe you just post made up shit?

[seafoid]

I gave you the numbers. Bonds fell by 20% in 2022  as well. There is going to be another crash.

[Milltown Row2]

I gave you the numbers. Bonds fell by 20% in 2022  as well. There is going to be another crash.

If you say there is going to be another crash each year you'll be right at some point

[playwiththewind1st]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp3p5l0nyevo