UK/North economy

[BigGreenField]

I gave you the numbers. Bonds fell by 20% in 2022  as well. There is going to be another crash.

At the risk of nonsense being contagious. Do you know why bonds fell?

Hint; it wasn't because of economic weakness.

[Baile Brigín 2]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Should this be filed under made up shit or have you actually evidence that in any general sense pension funds lost around 50% of assets (by which i presume you mean value)?

There were 2 asset bubbles between 2020 and 2025. every time an asset bubble collapses there are losses
Equity losses
2020 32%
Oct 22 24%

32% and 24% fall from what though? If the bubbles hit 33 and 25% before deflating, so what?

[freddy221]

It is concerning to see these forecasts, especially regarding the hit to living standards. Hopefully, the actual outcomes aren't as severe as the IMF predicts.

[seafoid]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Should this be filed under made up shit or have you actually evidence that in any general sense pension funds lost around 50% of assets (by which i presume you mean value)?

There were 2 asset bubbles between 2020 and 2025. every time an asset bubble collapses there are losses
Equity losses
2020 32%
Oct 22 24%

32% and 24% fall from what though? If the bubbles hit 33 and 25% before deflating, so what?

Fall in the share price from peak asset bubble.32% had implications for solvency.  Everyone uses quant models so they go down as the market goes down.

[Milltown Row2]

Some craic in here! Think I'll head to another pub!

[MrsBinfield]

I gave you the numbers. Bonds fell by 20% in 2022  as well. There is going to be another crash.

Just checked and I'm 100% certain that you haven't posted any evidence that pensions lost half their value between 2020 and 2025. But as you are adamant that you have this evidence just post it here.

[Baile Brigín 2]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Should this be filed under made up shit or have you actually evidence that in any general sense pension funds lost around 50% of assets (by which i presume you mean value)?

There were 2 asset bubbles between 2020 and 2025. every time an asset bubble collapses there are losses
Equity losses
2020 32%
Oct 22 24%

32% and 24% fall from what though? If the bubbles hit 33 and 25% before deflating, so what?

Fall in the share price from peak asset bubble.32% had implications for solvency.  Everyone uses quant models so they go down as the market goes down.

And what was the asset price before the bubble?

[RedHand88]

Just tap out seafoid, tap out.

[Baile Brigín 2]

Just tap out seafoid, tap out.

He genuinely doesn't understand his concept. If something starts at 10, goes to 50 and ends at 40 it hasn't fallen 20%.

[Armagh18]

Just tap out seafoid, tap out.

He genuinely doesn't understand his concept. If something starts at 10, goes to 50 and ends at 40 it hasn't fallen 20%.

Maybe he's like Trump and does percentages differently

[seafoid]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Should this be filed under made up shit or have you actually evidence that in any general sense pension funds lost around 50% of assets (by which i presume you mean value)?

There were 2 asset bubbles between 2020 and 2025. every time an asset bubble collapses there are losses
Equity losses
2020 32%
Oct 22 24%

32% and 24% fall from what though? If the bubbles hit 33 and 25% before deflating, so what?

Fall in the share price from peak asset bubble.32% had implications for solvency.  Everyone uses quant models so they go down as the market goes down.

And what was the asset price before the bubble?

20 Feb 2020
S&p was 3380
2 days after the club final it was 2290.7q

Asset bubble 2
28 zdec 2021
S&p was 4795
21.20.22 was 3657

So it went from 3380 on 20 feb 2020 to 3657 on 22.10.22

Losses were 32% in asset bubble 1 and 24% in asset bubble 2.

Any other questions?

[seafoid]

I gave you the numbers. Bonds fell by 20% in 2022  as well. There is going to be another crash.

If you say there is going to be another crash each year you'll be right at some point

we had volatility in 2020  and 2025 and inflation in 2022 and now.

Thats more often than 2 years at a time. It's not like the frequency of Roscommon winning connacht titles. Every 2 years is senior hurling.

[trueblue1234]

Seafoid That's a 8% increase in the time from 20th Feb 2020 to 22.10.22.

Are you just measuring the markets when they dip?

[seafoid]

I gave you the numbers. Bonds fell by 20% in 2022  as well. There is going to be another crash.

At the risk of nonsense being contagious. Do you know why bonds fell?

Hint; it wasn't because of economic weakness.

bonds fell because of inflation. Bond payments are fixed and inflation reduces the value of fixed payments so the price fell.

[MrsBinfield]

Thanks.

Plan is once the mortgage is cleared we plan to split 90% of that monthly payment between savings, emergency fund, pension etc.

It was always dead money so if we can continue to tip away based on current incomes we should be ok.

A pension with tax relief has a lot of merit.

Pension funds all use one quantitative model for all risk and lose shedloads to inflation and volatility. They lost around 50% of assets between 2020 and 2025. I am looking at a Swiss pension fund that lost 25bn CHF between 2020 and 2025.
https://www.ft.com/content/1fcb4d60-b1df-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132
Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and in pension funds that hold them. The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.

Should this be filed under made up shit or have you actually evidence that in any general sense pension funds lost around 50% of assets (by which i presume you mean value)?

There were 2 asset bubbles between 2020 and 2025. every time an asset bubble collapses there are losses
Equity losses
2020 32%
Oct 22 24%

32% and 24% fall from what though? If the bubbles hit 33 and 25% before deflating, so what?

Fall in the share price from peak asset bubble.32% had implications for solvency.  Everyone uses quant models so they go down as the market goes down.

And what was the asset price before the bubble?

20 Feb 2020
S&p was 3380
2 days after the club final it was 2290.7q

Asset bubble 2
28 zdec 2021
S&p was 4795
21.20.22 was 3657

So it went from 3380 on 20 feb 2020 to 3657 on 22.10.22

Losses were 32% in asset bubble 1 and 24% in asset bubble 2.

Any other questions?

When I asked you to post the evidence it genuinely hadn't occurred to me that you thought you already had.

If the above is your evidence then you do not understand markets, logic or mathematics.


I think my original contention that you just post shit is holding up pretty well.