Cheltenham

[T O Hare]

The gold cup is the feature race of the festival.. personally my favourite race is the champion hurdle!!!!

[Stalin]

Won this last night on Ladbrokes Poker:

Each package includes:

– Hospitality day for two on Thursday 12th March
– Members Badge x 2
– Champagne Reception
– 3 Course Meal
– Complimentary Bar
– €1000 expenses

Unfortunately I have no interest in horsies or fetlocks or anything like that at all, and the package is non-transferrable. Oh well, was free entry anyway.

[SidelineKick]

Jammy bastard.

[Doogie Browser]

Anyone got any notes to post as yet from any of the many preview nights that are being held?  Need all the help I can get 

[ulster-boy]

a few of my ante-post bets for the festival;

Triumph; Tharaawat 33/1 (NAP)
Arkle; I'msingingtheblues 16/1
Cross country; L'ami 5/1
RSA; The Market Man 20/1

still puzzled regarding the gold cup tho!!

[Our Nail Loney]

How likely is Cousin Vinney to run in the Supreme Novices? I see Mullins still hasnt declared which race he will go for?

I think he will definitely go in the supreme, the main factor was deciding between him and Hurricane Run, now HR is out I think he will keep him in Supreme and maybe put Mikael D'Haguenet in Ballymore...

I know Ruby is riding Kempes in the Supreme...

[Homer]

Patrick Mullins is taking the the ride on Auntie Mary's son Vincent

Personally I think Voy Por Ustedes @ 6/4 is the banker of the festival for the Ryanair Chase, Imperial Commander is the big danger so I have had a small saver on him too.

[Our Nail Loney]

Patrick Mullins is taking the the ride on Auntie Mary's son Vincent

Personally I think Voy Por Ustedes @ 6/4 is the banker of the festival for the Ryanair Chase, Imperial Commander is the big danger so I have had a small saver on him too.

Agreed. VPU is the best 2.5miler about at the minute, showed his class beating Master Minded at Aintree last year

Love this horse having backed it the two times it won at Cheltenham before, the first time I had £2 on him in the arkle, was back when I first started punting, but I remember the money helped me to a day in renshaws, so this horse will forever be in my debt!!

[harlechman]

My ante-posts are:

Arkle - Tatenen €20 6/1
          Planet of Sound €10 12/1

Ryanair - Imperial Commander €10 10/1

I'll be opposing Kauto in the Gold Cup, just not sure who with

[Homer]

Supreme Novices Hurdle trends (1997-2008)

- All bar one of the last 11 winners, won last time out (the exception Arcalis 2005 who had came 3rd)
- Irish horses have won 7 out of the last 11
- Each winner has won at least 50% of their races over hurdles - all 11 had raced between 2 - 4 times
- 7 winners emerged from Flat racing however none of whom had tasted graded success
- Only 3 out of 11 winners set off as faves (Brave Inca 04, Back In Front 03, Like-A-Butterfly 02)
- 8 of 11 were aged 5-6
- 3 of the 11 were mares



I really like Cousin Vinny as a horse but I'm afraid he's my bismrack of the festival. IMO his price is a bit short. His jumping is too inconsistent and he tackles the hurdles more like they were a fence. Patrick Mullins has never ran a hurdles race in Cheltenham never mind won one he will really struggle against the experience of Ruby, AP and Thorthon.

I'm going with Michael Flips to take this. McCoy looks set to be on board.

[Our Nail Loney]

I like Choc Thornton 8/1 to be top jockey, each way 1st three places 1/4 the odds...

Think the 2/1 then for the place is huge, he has some good rides for King who always has his horses flying for the festival and Choc loves it around here...

[thewobbler]

Champion Hurdle - While Binocular has been the singularly most impressive looking horse of the season, I've a funny feeling there's a touch of the Black Jack Ketchums about him. Irish hurdlers have plundered every prize in England when they've travelled over in recent years, and until this horse comes up against the likes of Brave Inca, Sublimity and Hardy Eustace, we'll not really know what he's made of. Beating the likes of Chomba Womba and Crack Away Jack is not enough to justify such strong Champion Hurdle favouritism... especially when last year's evidence would suggest Cheltenham may not be his track. The one that interests me most here is Harchibald e/w. He will no doubt play his usual silly buggers coming up to line, but Carberry will track Binocular the whole way, and when McCoy presses the button, he's going to have this seriously impressive beast going with him. If Harchi is in a good mood, I'd fancy him to take the honours on that one.

The Champion Chase - Is going to be a pointless affair. If Well Chief can roll back the years, he is the only remnant of a danger to Master Minded. It's a bit like putting Paul Gascoigne in a race with Wayne Rooney though.

World Hurdle - Has a bit of value floating around it due to the odds of the market-leading pair. Mighty Man might be coming back from injury, but has a tremendous record in Grade 1s that Kasbah Bliss and Punchestowns would do well to emulate. Don't bet against him making an Ingles Drever style successful return. Fair Along is another who will give everything to the cause, and will be fighting at the end, even if likely to be a little outclassed.

Gold Cup - The thing to take from Denman's return wasn't that he was beatem, but more that Madison Du Berlais ran a grade 2 field completely and utterly into submission - crushing Denman at his own game. And with Neptune Collonges, Denman and Halcon Generaldais in the mix, this should be a real galloper's Gold Cup, effectively ruling Kauto Star out of proceedings. Madison Du Berlais showed nothing before this season that he was capable of running in this company, but I've a pretty good hunch that this season he'll just run them into the ground.


Of the other races,

RSA - Good sense should tell me to avoid Massini's Maguire, as his habit of hitting the top of every fence will no doubt come under duress during a full-blooded Championship race. Carruthers is a more likely winner, but I'm drawn to the sheer persistence of Hobbs's horse.

Ryanair - Voy Por should be a good thing, but Our vic won't be far away around here.

[Homer]

Champion Hurdle trends (1997-2008)

- Each of the last 11 winners raced within the previous two months - though only 2 winners raced within the last month
- 10 out of 11 won over 2m or 2m1f last time out (Exception Hardy Eustace 2004)
- 10 victors scored in a Grade 1 hurdle or Grade 3 handicap hurdle
- 9 out of 11 had previously won at the Festival
- 10 winners had ran in over 10 hurdle races (Exception Sublimity 07)
- 10 of the 11 winners came from first 6 in the betting (Exception Hardy Eustace 2004 33/1)

Very hard to get away from Binocular very impressive but at 13/8 I will need to wait and see how the going is before taking any plunge.

Istabraaq has defended his the title twice and Hardy Eustace has also done so in 2005 yet shockingly current champion Katchit sits 5th favourite in the market and is available at 16/1 with some firms. Our Nail put it well a few months back ....

Katchit hasnt set the world alight this season, second to snap tie then killed by the weights when losing to chomba womba

Saying that its record at cheltenham is unbelievable, think its last six form at chelt is 111121 inc winning the Champ Hurdle and the Triumph at the festival last two years...

......

Betting: Binocular 6/4, Crack Away Jack 7/2, Katchit 5/1, Chomba Womba 7/1...

As long as Katchit stays over 9/2 I might do it each way and the forecast: Binocular 1st, Katchit 2nd.

edit: Just looking Katchit has some form 11211111/13211-23, 15 runs over hurdles and never out of the top3... what a class wee horse...

Reigning champ, course and festival form and now his age fits the trends even better than last year. Verdict: I'm thinking along the same lines as ONL, small bet e/w on Katchit and another small reverse forecast with Binocular.

[Homer]

Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase trends (1997-2008)

- Every winner ran in a novice chase last time
- 9 winners were rested for ~2-3 months before the festival (the two exceptions landed the Kingmaker Novice at Warwick a month previous)
- Winning form in a novice chase over 2m to 2m1f consistent among all winners
- All winners had faced fences a maximum of five times
- 5-7 year olds dominate with only one exception (Moscow Flyer 2002 aged 8 )
- No winners were mares. The last success by a female dates back to 1980
- All 11 winners came from first 5 in betting
- 5 of the victorious 11 were French-bred horses
- Alan King and Paul Nicholls have notched up 2 wins each


Won't be having a bet til nearer the day in this. I am siding with Imsingingtheblues (8/1) for a bit of value who has beaten joint fav Calgrary Bay (5/1) previously, while giving him weight.

I'll try post up a few more trends tomorrow.

[Treasurer]

I'd normally have a fair few ante posts lined up but very quiet this year!  Had Pandorama unfortunately.

I think Air Force One and Ebadiyan are the only ones I have left in.