Cheltenham

Our Nail Loney · February 24, 2009, 04:58:42 PM

Quote from: Mickey Linden on February 24, 2009, 04:09:38 PM
Anyone any solution to following Cheltenham in work? All the gambling sites are banned in here? Will it be on any radio station in Dublin? I could only get the Friday off. Is there any website which provides text commentary which wouldnt be banned in work?

BBC Sport?

I will be able to follow it in work handy enough I think...

SidelineKick · February 24, 2009, 05:34:17 PM

Quote from: Our Nail Loney on February 24, 2009, 04:58:42 PM
Quote from: Mickey Linden on February 24, 2009, 04:09:38 PM
Anyone any solution to following Cheltenham in work? All the gambling sites are banned in here? Will it be on any radio station in Dublin? I could only get the Friday off. Is there any website which provides text commentary which wouldnt be banned in work?

BBC Sport?

I will be able to follow it in work handy enough I think...

Our Nail Loney · February 25, 2009, 10:30:18 AM

Sorry Mickey...

SUPREME Novices' Hurdle favourite Hurricane Fly will miss the Cheltenham Festival, trainer Willie Mullins confirmed on Tuesday.

The French import, successful in four of his five starts over hurdles since coming to Ireland, was quoted at 4-1 'with a run' by William Hill, new sponsors of the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The dual Grade 1 winning hurdler was withdrawn from the recent Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle when he was found to be lame on the eve of the race. Mullins admitted he had run out of time to get the five-year-old back to full fitness from his recent splint problem.

"We've decided not to train him for Cheltenham as he has not made the improvement we had hoped for," said Mullins on Tuesday afternoon.

"We're going to concentrate on Punchestown with him and while it's disappointing, the upside is that it will come right as it just needs time."

Mullins still has Cousin Vinny at the head of the market for the Festival opener along with Mikael D'Haguenet and Kempes.

"Kempes will probably now run in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle but I haven't made any firmplans for the other horses yet.

"It's bad luck with Hurricane Fly but that is the way it works and worse things have happened."

Louth Exile · February 25, 2009, 03:26:03 PM

St Josephs GFC, Dromiskin, Co Louth (just off the M1) is holding a Cheltenham preview night on Thursday 5th March

The trainer all the bookies fear, Tony Martin. Esteemed racing journalist of the Sunday Times, Newstalk & Irish Field, Donn Mc Clean. Local bookmaker and shrewd punter, Peter Mc Grane. These and other guests will be giving their insight into the Cheltenham festival action. Cheltenham preview nights are always an entertaining evening and with superb guests such as those above, this one should prove to be no different!

Tickets are €20 and are going fast as numbers are limited, so don't hesitate, if you have any interest in this event or want tickets send me a PM.

http://www.thejoesgfc.com/clubhouse.php

ardmhachaabu08 · February 25, 2009, 09:01:30 PM

The Coral Cup....Quite like "Gee Dee Nen". Jim Best trained, awas placed second on his seasonal re-appearance beaten by Honest John at Catterick over 3 mile 2. Won next time out at Ludlow under McCoy in a 3 miler which suggests that 3 mile 2 was maybe too testing. The Coral Cup is a 2 mile 5 race though he stayed on very well at Ludlow and should see out this trip. Currently trading around 14/1 with hills, coral & VC

Hardy · February 26, 2009, 03:46:49 PM

I'm very much a stats man, especially for the big races. Here's an interesting analysis of the stats for the Champion Chase, from a blog I subscribe to (Geegez.co.uk) - the point about a possible fall is particularly relevant since the margin for error in the sprint of steeplechasing over those fences is so tiny:

Master Minded goes to Cheltenham on the second Wednesday in March as the boiling hot favourite. Is there anything to beat him? Or is this a lap of honour for the returning king? On all known form, he's a cert (bar a fall). What do the trends tell us? There are 19 entered, most of whom won't run...

- The last ten winners had previously won that season. Strike through eight, including Twist Magic and unraced Well Chief

- 9 out of the last 11 winners were aged 6 to 10. (The two who weren't were Moscow Flyer, 11, and Master Minded himself, 5). Bye bye Ashley Brook and previous winner Newmill (who had failed the first stat too).

- 10 of the last 11 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase in the Festival winning season.

That leaves just four: Master Minded, Big Zeb, Scotsirish, and Voy Por Ustedes. Voy Por is headed for the Ryanair Chase (openly swerving the Master), which leaves three. Indeed, both Scotsirish and Big Zeb are also entered in the Ryanair, but are more likely to run in this event.

Although Master Minded is far and away the most likely winner, it is worth bearing in mind the following:

2007 Well Chief, Fell, Evens favourite

2006 Kauto Star, Fell, 2/1 favourite

2004 Moscow Flyer, Unseated rider, 5/6 favourite

Brilliant horses, who seemingly only needed to jump round to win, failed to do that. Personally, I hope Master Minded completes and wins in the style of the wonder horse he clearly is. He's still just a SIX year old!

But something has to finish 2nd and 3rd, and we'll get paid on both places, so each way is a pleasure on the two Irish horses, Scotsirish (prefers soft) and Big Zeb (needs to jump well).

Big Zeb (e/w) is a best priced 12/1 with Paddy Power, who are offering a quarter the odds 1-2-3. There might not be eight runners on the day, meaning there might not be three places, and there will almost certainly not be much quarter odds on the place, come the day. So get some of this now.

Scotsirish (e/w) has finished 1st and 3rd in Grade 2 races on his last two runs, but might defect to the Ryanair. Nevertheless, he is a massive price, so a tiny each way tickle at the available 100/1 (quarter odds 1-2-3; if he's a non runner, you'll get your money back) with bet365.

(Me again) Alternatively, the place prices on Betfair are 2.82 for Big Zeb and 22 for Scotsirish. I can't see Scotsirish myself, but the stats are facts.

Mickey Linden · February 26, 2009, 03:57:58 PM

Sorted out my problem of not being able to hear the races lads. i got the number of a bookmaker down here who gives commentary on the english races. its a dublin number too so wont cost me a complete fortune.

So far I have done the following
Arkle Chase - Kelhari King £25 e/w @ 10/1
Master Minded 2/5, Kesbiah Bliss 11/8 and Binocular 6/4 £50 treble
Garde Champetre4/1 and Cousin Vinney 4/1 £25 e/w double
Ap McCoy top jockey 9/2 £50 win.

Our Nail Loney · March 02, 2009, 08:26:37 PM

One of my favourite horses CATCH ME, is bypassing Cheltenham for Aintree... Was sixth in the Champ hurdle last year and really thought he could give them a go in it again this year in what isn't really a vintage renewal (I base this mainly on that mutt Crack Away Jack being up there in the betting)

Always in a quandary, stuck between the CH and the World Hurdle, hopefully it won't be long before they put in a championship 2m4f race at the festival, if there was Catch Me would have romped home for it...

One to back at Aintree and Punchestown I think.

Our Nail Loney · March 03, 2009, 12:26:50 PM

I am slowly but surely thinking about having a saver bet on Binocular... Have backed Sublimity so far, hope they don't water the track too much...

Homer · March 03, 2009, 01:47:51 PM

This time next week we'll either be cheering home the winner of the Supreme Novices or going back to the paper to make amends in the Champion Hurdle.

So lads (and Treasuser) who's your banker and bismarck of the festival?

Green+Gold · March 03, 2009, 02:07:57 PM

Quote from: Mickey Linden on February 26, 2009, 03:57:58 PM
Sorted out my problem of not being able to hear the races lads. i got the number of a bookmaker down here who gives commentary on the english races. its a dublin number too so wont cost me a complete fortune.

So far I have done the following
Arkle Chase - Kelhari King £25 e/w @ 10/1
Master Minded 2/5, Kesbiah Bliss 11/8 and Binocular 6/4 £50 treble
Garde Champetre4/1 and Cousin Vinney 4/1 £25 e/w double
Ap McCoy top jockey 9/2 £50 win.

I'm near sure all races are live on RTE radio.

girt_giggler · March 03, 2009, 04:17:17 PM

Diamond Harry is my NAP of the week.

Louth Exile · March 04, 2009, 01:59:53 PM

Just one last plug!!

Quote from: Louth Exile on February 25, 2009, 03:26:03 PM
St Josephs GFC, Dromiskin, Co Louth (just off the M1) is holding a Cheltenham preview night on Thursday 5th March

The trainer all the bookies fear, Tony Martin. Esteemed racing journalist of the Sunday Times, Newstalk & Irish Field, Donn Mc Clean. Local bookmaker and shrewd punter, Peter Mc Grane. These and other guests will be giving their insight into the Cheltenham festival action. Cheltenham preview nights are always an entertaining evening and with superb guests such as those above, this one should prove to be no different!

Tickets are €20 and are going fast as numbers are limited, so don't hesitate, if you have any interest in this event or want tickets send me a PM.

http://www.thejoesgfc.com/clubhouse.php

Mickey Linden · March 04, 2009, 02:53:02 PM

How likely is Cousin Vinney to run in the Supreme Novices? I see Mullins still hasnt declared which race he will go for?

Stalin · March 04, 2009, 03:17:46 PM

whats the big day at cheltenham? or is there one?