Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[muppet]

We'll see muppet, but I think fine gaels leadership is going to cost them badly.  Ignore and deny it all you want, but the general populace do not really want Enda to be the next taoiseach.  You can say it's media spin, but if it has worked and people do not want him.  If FG had a more palatable leader they'd be hitting 40%.

If they somehow make Gilmore Taoiseach I'd expect a very rapid default (latest 2013). They wanted €1.5 less cuts in the budget and were highly unlikely to deliver even that (imagine a left party cutting PS pay, pensions and welfare). Then we would have another election quickly afterwards. Yes Kenny would be gone by then but maybe that's what needs to happen.

Like it or not the only route to recovery, short of striking oil, is massive public spending cuts. There is a chance none of the parties have the balls or even cop to deliver the cuts but the only two likely to try are FF and FG. And there is only one choice there.

That daft thing about the media/country wanting strong leaders, who rule their parties with an iron fist, is that it almost always leads to disaster. Haughey? Ahern?? Cowen???

Thatcher? Is that what we need?

Personally, I don't want any of them, not Kenny, not Gilmore, not Adams, not Gormley (did I need to include him there?) and not Martin (see Gormley comment).

Kenny may even be the best of that bunch, as for all the talk of cuts in spending and tax increases etc, it's all irrelevant bollocks imo.  The small beer of the exchequer deficit can be looked at after the default next November or December, there's little point in pretending that we can keep come up with a plan until that elephant has been run out of the room.

I said 2013 because I'm accused of being pessimistic. 

Did you see the article on the €50 Billion Central Bank emergency loans to the wonderful banks? Have the markets factored this in yet??

[Bogball XV]

We'll see muppet, but I think fine gaels leadership is going to cost them badly.  Ignore and deny it all you want, but the general populace do not really want Enda to be the next taoiseach.  You can say it's media spin, but if it has worked and people do not want him.  If FG had a more palatable leader they'd be hitting 40%.

If they somehow make Gilmore Taoiseach I'd expect a very rapid default (latest 2013). They wanted €1.5 less cuts in the budget and were highly unlikely to deliver even that (imagine a left party cutting PS pay, pensions and welfare). Then we would have another election quickly afterwards. Yes Kenny would be gone by then but maybe that's what needs to happen.

Like it or not the only route to recovery, short of striking oil, is massive public spending cuts. There is a chance none of the parties have the balls or even cop to deliver the cuts but the only two likely to try are FF and FG. And there is only one choice there.

That daft thing about the media/country wanting strong leaders, who rule their parties with an iron fist, is that it almost always leads to disaster. Haughey? Ahern?? Cowen???

Thatcher? Is that what we need?

Personally, I don't want any of them, not Kenny, not Gilmore, not Adams, not Gormley (did I need to include him there?) and not Martin (see Gormley comment).

Kenny may even be the best of that bunch, as for all the talk of cuts in spending and tax increases etc, it's all irrelevant bollocks imo.  The small beer of the exchequer deficit can be looked at after the default next November or December, there's little point in pretending that we can keep come up with a plan until that elephant has been run out of the room.

I said 2013 because I'm accused of being pessimistic. 

Did you see the article on the €50 Billion Central Bank emergency loans to the wonderful banks? Have the markets factored this in yet??

Haven't seen it yet, there's a fair bt i want to read on here, particularly that property pin stuff on the guarantee  - no time just yet.

[muppet]

Haven't seen it yet, there's a fair bt i want to read on here, particularly that property pin stuff on the guarantee  - no time just yet.

Put simply (for my simple brain) the EU wont cover it. If is outside the guarantee it amounts to 25% of CB assets and that could mean they (CB) are insolvent. If it is covered by the guarantee or the Government are otherwise liable, then it goes on the National Debt and we all could be insolvent. The SBP could get no info from the CB.

http://www.sbpost.ie/themarket/50-billion-in-loans-puts-solvency-risk-on-central-bank-54176.html

[Declan]

GE 2011 is irrelevant because we are FUBARED. Default looks more and more inevitable yet everyone is happy to put their fingers in their ears and mumble incoherently.
For the first time I am contemplating not voting

[Lone Shark]

We'll see muppet, but I think fine gaels leadership is going to cost them badly.  Ignore and deny it all you want, but the general populace do not really want Enda to be the next taoiseach.  You can say it's media spin, but if it has worked and people do not want him.  If FG had a more palatable leader they'd be hitting 40%.

I think there is a degree here of comparing the free scoring corner forward who can't get the ball unless it's played in with a ribbon on it to the good all round ball winning forward who never chips in more than a point or two. Mark Vaughan vs Paul Galvin, if you will.

Kenny doesn't have buckets of charisma, and I know firsthand how a huge number of voters in this country don't like him and yet can't put their finger on why, (Mam at home is a terror for it) but you say that FG would be on 40% with a different leader - I would flip that around and say that if they had a different leader, there is every chance that they never would have recovered from the drubbing in 2002 in the first place.

Kenny might not be a great debater or orator, but he does make good solid points in the Dáil without grandstanding, and he has built up a good party with capable people in most areas. Michael Noonan, Richard Bruton, James Reilly, Alan Shatter and Jimmy Deenihan are universally respected, while their younger generation is a bit more hit and miss but there still is a lot of vibrancy there. I'm not talking about mouthpieces like Coveney and Creighton, but Kieran O'Donnell, Damien English, Leo Varadkar, Brian Hayes and even Denis Naughton or John Deasy are all politicians who I would be happy to give a shot at cabinet.

I think he's got the right idea - captaining the team doesn't mean that you play midfield, take all the frees and try to mark the opposition dangerman as well. You delegate and trust your team.

[Lone Shark]

GE 2011 is irrelevant because we are FUBARED. Default looks more and more inevitable yet everyone is happy to put their fingers in their ears and mumble incoherently.
For the first time I am contemplating not voting

If the country was going into receivership tomorrow, there's surely merit to at least voting for somebody, if only to send the message that you want a certain type of governance in the future, if and when we do ever get our sovereignty back?

[Declan]

LS -In my heart of hearts I know that I will probably vote but I really despair when I hear what passes for debate 

[Tubberman]

Latest poll results:

Paddy Power Red C poll: FG 37% (+4), FF 18% (+2), Lab 19% (-2%), SF 12% (-1%), Grn 3%, Ind 11% (-4%)

[Banana Man]

FF don't appear to be going anywhere going by these polls...

[Tubberman]

Big differences between the Indo/MRBI poll and the Paddy Power/Red C one.
FG at 30% in one and 37% in the other. Just goes to show they should all be viewed with a healthy dose of scepticism.
It's the trends over a series of polls that matter, rather than the swings from one poll to the next.

It seems FG are well on course to lead the next govt, most likely with Lab.
FF haven't got as much of a bounce as they would have expected from Martin's election as leader. The Irish electorate have shown themselves to have very short memories in the past, but not short enough for FF this time around 

[Nally Stand]

FF don't appear to be going anywhere going by these polls...

Don't forget though, going by these polls, they were on 14% not too long ago. They have grown in support over the last two Red C polls if i'm not mistaken. Looks like a lot of people have awful short memories. I'd be worried that this will continue to creep upwards over the next three weeks. Seems that since they got a new leader and Cowan stood down, some folks see this as a new FF! Nothing new...they're still the same decietful, rotten liars and hypocrites they were

[Nally Stand]

Two very differing posts we just put up there Tubberman haha

[Tubberman]

Two very differing posts we just put up there Tubberman haha

People should treat us like polls - not to be taken too seriously 

[Peter Solan the Great]

FF don't appear to be going anywhere going by these polls...

Don't forget though, going by these polls, they were on 14% not too long ago. They have grown in support over the last two Red C polls if i'm not mistaken. Looks like a lot of people have awful short memories. I'd be worried that this will continue to creep upwards over the next three weeks. Seems that since they got a new leader and Cowan stood down, some folks see this as a new FF! Nothing new...they're still the same decietful, rotten liars and hypocrites they were

Thats the best I ever seen. Gerry Adams to this day claims he was never in the IRA. Sinn Fein claiming to be a republican party yet they run the queens/British administration in Northern Ireland. Keep it up Nallystand your giving me a great laugh!

[Nally Stand]

Two very differing posts we just put up there Tubberman haha

People should treat us like polls - not to be taken too seriously 

True!!