59 days of cash left

[Zapatista]

If the govt doesn't make the cuts then we won't be able to get money from the bond market. If we can't get money from the bond market we will have to get it from the EU. If we are  being funded by the EU then they will control the budget. If Ireland was lending billions of euro to Greece would you not want us to have a say in how it is spent?

We did lend money to Greece and have no say in how it is spent.

We can get approval from the EU on our approach to cuts but they can't walk in and say 'cut the old age pension by 20%'.

[Lone Shark]

People forget that the politicians in these other countries have to get elected too. There is no way that the political leaders in places like Germany, Benelux, Denmark and Austria are going to let essentially their tax money be used to keep Irish public servants in wages that are way higher than the public servants in those countries. Imagine how a German nurse or a Dutch policeman would feel? That's something that the political classes in Europe will be conscious of.

Talk of a higher cost of living won't bother them either. They'll take one look at the average size of house that was built west of Lucan in the last five years, the foreign property that was bought and the lifestyles Irish people had and presume that there is room to cut. God help us if anyone reads the likes of that spoilt yoke Alison O'Riordan and what she thinks passes for poverty in this country.

The idea that Paddy feels like he's on the breadline when he can't afford to go out for a feed of pints at the weekend isn't really going to find a lot of sympathy on the continent so there really is no happy ending here.


Here's something I don't understand though. If - for example - an elderly person was asked to fund their own retirement by way of equity release in their homes, they would get highly indignant since they always would have imagined that they would have had a legacy to leave to their kids. Yet instead, this generation is very happy to leave a legacy of huge debt to theri kids, rather than take a lifestyle cut. Is it just an inability to see the bigger picture or what the hell is going on here?
(Sorry for the tangental point!)

[seafoid]

Have I missed something?  60 days of cash left then bankruptcy?  Doubt it, it'll just (continue to) get more expensive to get funds from Debt markets, EU/IMF money is already cheaper than the debt rates offered to ROI presently, but the loss of face on taking that money is going to mean FF will continue to try and get funds in the debt markets - prolonging and worsening the situation.

I think it was just some mouth on TV in the US who said 60 days.

Some muppet on Bloomberg. Probably shorting Irish debt . I imagine Suds is too. 

[Zapatista]

People forget that the politicians in these other countries have to get elected too. There is no way that the political leaders in places like Germany, Benelux, Denmark and Austria are going to let essentially their tax money be used to keep Irish public servants in wages that are way higher than the public servants in those countries. Imagine how a German nurse or a Dutch policeman would feel? That's something that the political classes in Europe will be conscious of.

Talk of a higher cost of living won't bother them either. They'll take one look at the average size of house that was built west of Lucan in the last five years, the foreign property that was bought and the lifestyles Irish people had and presume that there is room to cut. God help us if anyone reads the likes of that spoilt yoke Alison O'Riordan and what she thinks passes for poverty in this country.

The idea that Paddy feels like he's on the breadline when he can't afford to go out for a feed of pints at the weekend isn't really going to find a lot of sympathy on the continent so there really is no happy ending here.


Here's something I don't understand though. If - for example - an elderly person was asked to fund their own retirement by way of equity release in their homes, they would get highly indignant since they always would have imagined that they would have had a legacy to leave to their kids. Yet instead, this generation is very happy to leave a legacy of huge debt to theri kids, rather than take a lifestyle cut. Is it just an inability to see the bigger picture or what the hell is going on here?
(Sorry for the tangental point!)

I'd say the political class in Germany aren't too worried at the minute. They gambled on Ireland and lost yet we have refunded them and we will continue to refund them. The problem is the Irish Political class believe and act like the German, British, French etc political class are our betters and we owe them something. If the Germans decide to lend money to me to build myself a big house in Lucan then they are equally responsible but Lenihan has made sure they are not accountable.

It's more than just a lifestyle cut Loneshark. You are talking about cuts to services to the Health, Education etc which we demand for our kids. With little or no oppotunities in the Country it is also about our Children leaving the Country.

When you say that the legacy of an older person is their house it makes me think nothing has changed. The target for many people over the last ten years was one house per child.

[seafoid]

Gugalaí gug cá ndéanfaidh mé nead ? . Ma dhéanaim sa gcladach é gheobhaidh na lacha é.
Ma dhéanaim sa gclaí é  gheobhaidh na gé é.

Where will I build my nest? If I build it on the shore the ducks will get it. If I build it on the ditch the geese will get it.   

The Government has arrived at its Gugalaí gug moment.

[muppet]

Does anyone know who issued Credit Default Swaps on Anglo's bonds? i.e. who insured them.

That might be the real issue here.

Also does anyone know who issued CDSs on Irish Government bonds?

[Lone Shark]

If the Germans decide to lend money to me to build myself a big house in Lucan then they are equally responsible but Lenihan has made sure they are not accountable.

Do you really believe that? If I borrow money, it is my responsibility, my obligation, to pay it back. If I choose to feck that money away, then that is what I have chosen to do. I do not feck away my responsibility and duty with it.

The German banks and pension funds lent to Irish banks who lied through their teeth in terms of their solvency and business practices. The Irish banks, in turn, lent to Irish customers who lied through their teeth about their income, overtime, plans to rent a room and savings thus far. (Borrowing deposits from the credit union and the like). Whoever the bad guys might be here, it's not the fellas who lent the money.

It's more than just a lifestyle cut Loneshark. You are talking about cuts to services to the Health, Education etc which we demand for our kids. With little or no oppotunities in the Country it is also about our Children leaving the Country.

I am talking about a change in terms of what we feel we are entitled to. The people of Germany and Scandinavia have a certain lifestyle. The people of Zimbabwe have a different lifestyle. What we have is somewhere in between, and thankfully a lot closer to the former. However it is not realistic to demand all the things they have in terms of health and education until we are as productive as them and have been for a substantial length of time, until we are as interested in collective social well being as they are, and until we make the same mature decisions when we do come by a little bit of money, then of course we aren't entitled to the same standard of government provision.

By none of those measures are we at the same level as the mature European democracies.

Last year we took in less than 25% of our GDP in total tax. That's way less than most European countries. So not alone are we not willing to act in the responsible manner required to earn this lifestyle, neither are we willing to pay for it. We did this while spending way above the EU average on salaries for many public service roles.

It's sad that it will take a huge deterioration in our health and education services before we cop the hell on, but that's what it will take, by which time many people will have left these shores - possibly me included at the rate things are going.

[Bogball XV]

People forget that the politicians in these other countries have to get elected too. There is no way that the political leaders in places like Germany, Benelux, Denmark and Austria are going to let essentially their tax money be used to keep Irish public servants in wages that are way higher than the public servants in those countries. Imagine how a German nurse or a Dutch policeman would feel? That's something that the political classes in Europe will be conscious of.

Talk of a higher cost of living won't bother them either. They'll take one look at the average size of house that was built west of Lucan in the last five years, the foreign property that was bought and the lifestyles Irish people had and presume that there is room to cut. God help us if anyone reads the likes of that spoilt yoke Alison O'Riordan and what she thinks passes for poverty in this country.

The idea that Paddy feels like he's on the breadline when he can't afford to go out for a feed of pints at the weekend isn't really going to find a lot of sympathy on the continent so there really is no happy ending here.


Here's something I don't understand though. If - for example - an elderly person was asked to fund their own retirement by way of equity release in their homes, they would get highly indignant since they always would have imagined that they would have had a legacy to leave to their kids. Yet instead, this generation is very happy to leave a legacy of huge debt to theri kids, rather than take a lifestyle cut. Is it just an inability to see the bigger picture or what the hell is going on here?
(Sorry for the tangental point!)

I'd say the political class in Germany aren't too worried at the minute. They gambled on Ireland and lost yet we have refunded them and we will continue to refund them. The problem is the Irish Political class believe and act like the German, British, French etc political class are our betters and we owe them something. If the Germans decide to lend money to me to build myself a big house in Lucan then they are equally responsible but Lenihan has made sure they are not accountable.

It's more than just a lifestyle cut Loneshark. You are talking about cuts to services to the Health, Education etc which we demand for our kids. With little or no oppotunities in the Country it is also about our Children leaving the Country.

When you say that the legacy of an older person is their house it makes me think nothing has changed. The target for many people over the last ten years was one house per child.

What do you suggest we do Zap?  For what it's worth, frontline services don't have to be affected, it's quite simple, we slash the wages of frontline and backroom public sector workers and bring them into line with their peers across europe.  Nobody loses a job, services aren't affected (bar the 6 week strike).

[Bogball XV]

If the Germans decide to lend money to me to build myself a big house in Lucan then they are equally responsible but Lenihan has made sure they are not accountable.

Do you really believe that? If I borrow money, it is my responsibility, my obligation, to pay it back. If I choose to feck that money away, then that is what I have chosen to do. I do not feck away my responsibility and duty with it.

The German banks and pension funds lent to Irish banks who lied through their teeth in terms of their solvency and business practices. The Irish banks, in turn, lent to Irish customers who lied through their teeth about their income, overtime, plans to rent a room and savings thus far. (Borrowing deposits from the credit union and the like). Whoever the bad guys might be here, it's not the fellas who lent the money.

I disagree entirely, whoever lent the money is as much to blame as the borrower.  The lender is supposed to carry out checks on the repayability of the money, if these were conducted properly or if they decided to take a few shortcuts because the rate of return was attractive, that's their problem and they should be punished, that's how the free market works (unfortunately as we have come to learn, there's no such thing as a free market).

[Zapatista]

What do you suggest we do Zap?  For what it's worth, frontline services don't have to be affected, it's quite simple, we slash the wages of frontline and backroom public sector workers and bring them into line with their peers across europe.  Nobody loses a job, services aren't affected (bar the 6 week strike).

I hoonestly don't know what to do. Yes we could do what you say but it has an impact. Many public service workers are the loan bread winners in families up to their eyes in debt. If they need to fight to keep their pay levels just to keep their families above water then I am with them. This isn't a case of maintaining a lifestlye for many. For many it's a case of paying the mortgage and putting food on the table. We can describe them all as public sector workers but in truth they are real people with real problems.

I really don't know what to do but I would place blame firmly at FFs feet and Lenihan for bailing out German banks rather than the people who are struggling and protrayed as having certain lifestyles.

[Billys Boots]

We can all talk in high-finance terms folks, but say a fellah you knew who was in debt up to his eyeballs, with: (a) no work, (b) no prospect of work, and (c) no initiatives being taken to get work, and (d) no assets anywhere, asked you for a tenner in the pub on Friday night.  Would you consider yourself to have no responsibility in the bad debt, when it happens?

[Lone Shark]

If the Germans decide to lend money to me to build myself a big house in Lucan then they are equally responsible but Lenihan has made sure they are not accountable.

Do you really believe that? If I borrow money, it is my responsibility, my obligation, to pay it back. If I choose to feck that money away, then that is what I have chosen to do. I do not feck away my responsibility and duty with it.

The German banks and pension funds lent to Irish banks who lied through their teeth in terms of their solvency and business practices. The Irish banks, in turn, lent to Irish customers who lied through their teeth about their income, overtime, plans to rent a room and savings thus far. (Borrowing deposits from the credit union and the like). Whoever the bad guys might be here, it's not the fellas who lent the money.

I disagree entirely, whoever lent the money is as much to blame as the borrower.  The lender is supposed to carry out checks on the repayability of the money, if these were conducted properly or if they decided to take a few shortcuts because the rate of return was attractive, that's their problem and they should be punished, that's how the free market works (unfortunately as we have come to learn, there's no such thing as a free market).

That's fine if the Irish banks weren't lying like good things about the state of their finances. In a civilised democracy, deceitful reporting as they engaged in would be punishable by serious jail sentences - so the lenders were not unreasonable in presuming that their reported numbers were reasonably accurate. As it turns out, they were acting like weasels.

We can all talk in high-finance terms folks, but say a fellah you knew who was in debt up to his eyeballs, with: (a) no work, (b) no prospect of work, and (c) no initiatives being taken to get work, and (d) no assets anywhere, asked you for a tenner in the pub on Friday night.  Would you consider yourself to have no responsibility in the bad debt, when it happens?

You'd do your best to lend him the tenner, knowing full well that it was never coming back. You wouldn't then go home to your kids and when they need a tenner for a school trip, tell them to call into Mick who'll sort them out.

What do you suggest we do Zap?  For what it's worth, frontline services don't have to be affected, it's quite simple, we slash the wages of frontline and backroom public sector workers and bring them into line with their peers across europe.  Nobody loses a job, services aren't affected (bar the 6 week strike).

I hoonestly don't know what to do. Yes we could do what you say but it has an impact. Many public service workers are the loan bread winners in families up to their eyes in debt. If they need to fight to keep their pay levels just to keep their families above water then I am with them. This isn't a case of maintaining a lifestlye for many. For many it's a case of paying the mortgage and putting food on the table. We can describe them all as public sector workers but in truth they are real people with real problems.

I really don't know what to do but I would place blame firmly at FFs feet and Lenihan for bailing out German banks rather than the people who are struggling and protrayed as having certain lifestyles.

Of course it's FF's fault, that goes without saying. That's neither here nor there though. Neither do you blame public servants for fighting their own corner, but the simple fact is that if things aren't changed massively, their pay cheques by the middle of next summer will bounce.

A combined gross income of €45k, or a single gross income of €40k if married with tax allowances appropriately divided, is enough to pay for a reasonably sized mortgage and a family of four or five to live securely (albeit not lavishly). I've worked in this area for a while, I've crunched the numbers, and right now as a couple me and my partner are living (albeit not saving as much as we'd like, but not dipping into existing savings either) on a lot less. The amount of public servants who have (i) less household income than this (ii) a family to care for and (iii) a sensible mortgage are very few.

 

[Billys Boots]

Quote from: Billys Boots on Today at 10:56:00 AM
We can all talk in high-finance terms folks, but say a fellah you knew who was in debt up to his eyeballs, with: (a) no work, (b) no prospect of work, and (c) no initiatives being taken to get work, and (d) no assets anywhere, asked you for a tenner in the pub on Friday night.  Would you consider yourself to have no responsibility in the bad debt, when it happens?

You'd do your best to lend him the tenner, knowing full well that it was never coming back. You wouldn't then go home to your kids and when they need a tenner for a school trip, tell them to call into Mick who'll sort them out.

As a responsible parent, would you not foresee that your children would have financial requirements for their education and keep your hand in your pocket on Friday night (considering you rarely get out on a Friday night anyway)?

[Bogball XV]

That's fine if the Irish banks weren't lying like good things about the state of their finances. In a civilised democracy, deceitful reporting as they engaged in would be punishable by serious jail sentences - so the lenders were not unreasonable in presuming that their reported numbers were reasonably accurate. As it turns out, they were acting like weasels.

It doesn't matter if the borrower lied or not, the lender should get punished for not having effective lending procedures in place.
I'm also not sure that the Irish banks lied (before 2008 at any rate), the reported numbers were accurate, the profits were real (of course the metrics measuring profits should be looked at), the flaw lay in the assumptions underpinning the numbers.  The lenders knew that as long as the good times rolled things would be fine, they made the assumption that the good times would continue, because it suited them to do so.  German bankers are like bankers everywhere, if there's a chance of a quick buck that'll boost their own targets, they'll take it, why wouldn't they?  It's not like they had to answer to or justify their decision to their own regulator, thanks to the wonders of the IFSC.
No, as far as I am concerned, let the free market be free on this one, let the irresponsible lenders take their hit.

[Lone Shark]

Quote from: Billys Boots on Today at 10:56:00 AM
We can all talk in high-finance terms folks, but say a fellah you knew who was in debt up to his eyeballs, with: (a) no work, (b) no prospect of work, and (c) no initiatives being taken to get work, and (d) no assets anywhere, asked you for a tenner in the pub on Friday night.  Would you consider yourself to have no responsibility in the bad debt, when it happens?

You'd do your best to lend him the tenner, knowing full well that it was never coming back. You wouldn't then go home to your kids and when they need a tenner for a school trip, tell them to call into Mick who'll sort them out.

As a responsible parent, would you not foresee that your children would have financial requirements for their education and keep your hand in your pocket on Friday night (considering you rarely get out on a Friday night anyway)?

That's kind of the point though. If you lent money to such a person, you'd know there was a huge risk of it never coming back, so it would have to be money that you didn't need for another purpose. If you're in the pub at all, you obviously have some disposable income.