All-Ireland Series Sam Maguire 2026

[statto]

https://x.com/StatsAndSolos/status/2057058407534715328

Hard to see how Dublin are 34% to reach a semi final, think they are miles off it.   Would fancy most of the teams below them to have a right cut at them. 

[J70]

Cannot see Donegal winning down in Killarney, especially with a wounded Kerry out for blood after the league final.

Plus, rumours out of Donegal are that neither Langan or Murphy will feature. Our squad is not that deep in terms of proven experience.

Murphy won't feature because he's injured or JMcG not wanting to show Kerry too much in Killarney?

Don't know.

First thing crossed my mind was maybe he didn't want Murphy to be a target to rile up the crowd after the league final.

Murphy is anything but a shrinking violet, so I doubt if the Kerry team throwing in a few digs would be a worry.

But this is all internet rumour. I haven't even seen anything concrete about the Langan injury since the Down game.

[downgael2065]

Cannot see Donegal winning down in Killarney, especially with a wounded Kerry out for blood after the league final.

Plus, rumours out of Donegal are that neither Langan or Murphy will feature. Our squad is not that deep in terms of proven experience.

Murphy won't feature because he's injured or JMcG not wanting to show Kerry too much in Killarney?

Don't know.

First thing crossed my mind was maybe he didn't want Murphy to be a target to rile up the crowd after the league final.

Murphy is anything but a shrinking violet, so I doubt if the Kerry team throwing in a few digs would be a worry.

But this is all internet rumour. I haven't even seen anything concrete about the Langan injury since the Down game.

Im suprised how little we have heard regarding the langan injury. The rumours after the down game was he was out for the season. Then i heard from donegal lad he sprained the ankle out for a month. If he was out for the year would that not be released to the public by now?  Maybe he just needs another week or two. If he plays on sat think donegal might sneak it. Its hard to know how to read downs defeat of donegal considering we were so poor the next day against armagh.

Roscommon v tyrone a big game for both. Been impressed by roscommon they need to follow up with another big performance.

[rodney trotter]

Thought the groups worked ok last few years so surprised at yet another change
For me
Donegal
Roscommon
Meath
Louth
Westmeath
Armagh
Mayo
Galway

Altho still think Kerry will be there are there come mid July for the semifinals

There was dead rubber games in the groups which had impact on attendance and the interest in some of the games.

There were very few dead rubbers and most teams always had something to play for

It was a poor system. A lot of games to eliminate just a few teams. The current structure isn't great either but has a bit more jeopardy.

They could have just brought the old backdoor system but they would have less tv exposure then.

[armaghniac]

Hard to see how Dublin are 34% to reach a semi final, think they are miles off it.   Would fancy most of the teams below them to have a right cut at them. 

These calculations are probably based on odds. The odds for Dublin always overestimate their chances.
If Monaghan were playing Dublin, I'd be betting on the Farneymen.

[Main Street]

Hard to see how Dublin are 34% to reach a semi final, think they are miles off it.  Would fancy most of the teams below them to have a right cut at them. 

These calculations are probably based on odds. The odds for Dublin always overestimate their chances.
If Monaghan were playing Dublin, I'd be betting on the Farneymen.

Is that damning with faint praise?

[downgael2065]

Will we get the kerry and donegal teams announced today?

[twohands!!!]

It's untried at County level.
Crowd predictions-
Kerry v Donegal 14/15k at most.
Can't see other than NFL regulars making the hike from Donegal.
Ros v Tyrone. 12k at most. Tyrone haven't the big army of old while a lot of our once a year crew can't figure anything out beyond a Connacht Final.
Galway v Kildare probably won't break 6k.
Cork v Meath, about the same. Now that doubts persist about Meath being a shoe in for Sam, while Cork CB have shunted the footballers out of the way to Páirc Uí Rinn.

Am I imagining it or does there seem like very little in the way of excitment for these first round 1 matches? The fact that no-one gets knocked out in this round seems to have taken a serious amount of air out of the tyres. Spoken to a fair few GAA people from counties playing and really surprised by the amount of folk who said they'll be watching games on television as opposed to travelling - a lot of these folk would be the those who regularly go to league games. I know cost of living is a factor but have to say a bit surprised. The other thing is the GAA seem to have done a woeful job of educating the public on the actual format - just been gobsmacked with the amount of folk who only seem to have a very fuzzy idea of what happens if teams win/lose these games.

[Rossfan]

One again the GAA doesn't do marketing or promotion ......

[cavanmaniac]

Westmeath couldn't ask for a better draw, if it was another team you could see the highs of the weekend and the celebrations taking their toll but they should have too much quality for Cavan especially in front of a sold out home crowd.

The only tiny variable that a psychologically brittle and gutless team like Cavan have in their favour, is that they'll be far more comfortable and motivated when dismissed and written off as underdogs, under zero expectation or attention. It'd be in keeping with our ingrained low self-confidence and spiritlessness to locate the fire and gumption we otherwise lack, in external circumstances that the fates construe for us occasionally. They will relish this even more against a neighbouring county whose tails are up, and having a chance to take them down a peg or two (there is no real rancour between the counties, but still). It's also worth remembering that awful though we were against a Monaghan team that rightfully gained a lot of admirers that day and later on, we were somehow still alive in that game until its final knockings.

I'm not in any way saying Cavan will win this, far from it, as Westmeath have been operating on a different celestial plane entirely. But I expect the above, along with our very, very experienced core of players (albeit experienced in failure, mostly) to make Westmeath work hard for it, and it might be a more searching outing for them than the coronation and homecoming most predict.

I might look very foolish after that mouthful a little further down the road, but there it is regardless. 

[twohands!!!]

Westmeath couldn't ask for a better draw, if it was another team you could see the highs of the weekend and the celebrations taking their toll but they should have too much quality for Cavan especially in front of a sold out home crowd.

The only tiny variable that a psychologically brittle and gutless team like Cavan have in their favour, is that they'll be far more comfortable and motivated when dismissed and written off as underdogs, under zero expectation or attention. It'd be in keeping with our ingrained low self-confidence and spiritlessness to locate the fire and gumption we otherwise lack, in external circumstances that the fates construe for us occasionally. They will relish this even more against a neighbouring county whose tails are up, and having a chance to take them down a peg or two (there is no real rancour between the counties, but still). It's also worth remembering that awful though we were against a Monaghan team that rightfully gained a lot of admirers that day and later on, we were somehow still alive in that game until its final knockings.

I'm not in any way saying Cavan will win this, far from it, as Westmeath have been operating on a different celestial plane entirely. But I expect the above, along with our very, very experienced core of players (albeit experienced in failure, mostly) to make Westmeath work hard for it, and it might be a more searching outing for them than the coronation and homecoming most predict.

I might look very foolish after that mouthful a little further down the road, but there it is regardless. 

The other thing is that Westmeath wouldn't be the first "surprise" provincial winner to turn in a flat performance the next day out after their provincil win.

[square_ball]

Westmeath couldn't ask for a better draw, if it was another team you could see the highs of the weekend and the celebrations taking their toll but they should have too much quality for Cavan especially in front of a sold out home crowd.

The only tiny variable that a psychologically brittle and gutless team like Cavan have in their favour, is that they'll be far more comfortable and motivated when dismissed and written off as underdogs, under zero expectation or attention. It'd be in keeping with our ingrained low self-confidence and spiritlessness to locate the fire and gumption we otherwise lack, in external circumstances that the fates construe for us occasionally. They will relish this even more against a neighbouring county whose tails are up, and having a chance to take them down a peg or two (there is no real rancour between the counties, but still). It's also worth remembering that awful though we were against a Monaghan team that rightfully gained a lot of admirers that day and later on, we were somehow still alive in that game until its final knockings.

I'm not in any way saying Cavan will win this, far from it, as Westmeath have been operating on a different celestial plane entirely. But I expect the above, along with our very, very experienced core of players (albeit experienced in failure, mostly) to make Westmeath work hard for it, and it might be a more searching outing for them than the coronation and homecoming most predict.

I might look very foolish after that mouthful a little further down the road, but there it is regardless. 

I can't be the only one to enjoy cavanmaniac appraisals of the state of Cavan football. You can't fault your honesty anyway.

[fullback2023]

Will we get the kerry and donegal teams announced today?

Not sure about Donegal but Kerry team will be announced at 8 tonight.

[fullback2023]

It's untried at County level.
Crowd predictions-
Kerry v Donegal 14/15k at most.
Can't see other than NFL regulars making the hike from Donegal.
Ros v Tyrone. 12k at most. Tyrone haven't the big army of old while a lot of our once a year crew can't figure anything out beyond a Connacht Final.
Galway v Kildare probably won't break 6k.
Cork v Meath, about the same. Now that doubts persist about Meath being a shoe in for Sam, while Cork CB have shunted the footballers out of the way to Páirc Uí Rinn.

Just 1 predicition and 1 correction there. I think there will be 25k+ in Killarney. Fine weather due over weekend aswell always increases the crowd and it's not on Free to air, so..

And Cork footballers CHOSE to play in Páirc ui Rinn, not shunted up there. Good decision too. They should get a 3/4 full ground, better atmosphere rather than a 3/4 EMPTY Páirc ui Chaoimh. That being said I think if Meath are up to match speed quickly I think they'll win this.

Expecting around 25k according to the Examiner, 15k sold by yesterday morning.

[armaghniac]

Hard to see how Dublin are 34% to reach a semi final, think they are miles off it.  Would fancy most of the teams below them to have a right cut at them. 

These calculations are probably based on odds. The odds for Dublin always overestimate their chances.
If Monaghan were playing Dublin, I'd be betting on the Farneymen.

Is that damning with faint praise?
[/quote]

Saying that Monaghan would beat a county with 20 times its population is just praise, nothing faint about it