Race for the ARAS 2025

[marty34]

Considering Dana got 2% in 2011 it is doubtful there would have given a huge vote for Marie Steen this time. Esposing a similar return to the old Catholic ethos ruling Ireland.
Not a hope would Steen got in. Pity she didn't run wouldn't have to listen to all this girning from Toibín and Aontú folk.

You are probably right. Blocking her left her less open to scrutiny and accountability. She became far bigger than she really was shouting from the gallery and playing the victim.

That said we are in a different Ireland from when Dana ran in 2011.

The reality though is Her and her like are a threat and the momentum is building. So blocking her hides the true disquiet statistically for the moment.

 

Seems to be an overlap with the religious fundamentalism and far right MAGA mindset. Aontú paid huge tribute to Charlie Kirk.
She would have got torn apart in the debates with her record on different issues including same sex marriage and abortion... whatever one's opinion both were overwhelming voted in.

Whether you agree or disagree with her points of view, she would have wiped the floor with all of them in a debate

Problem is winning a debate counts for nothing.

Only thing that matters is who has the most votes on voting day.

Aontú very right wing. Plus Tobín gets some amount of airtime.

[Cunny Funt]

Considering Dana got 2% in 2011 it is doubtful there would have given a huge vote for Marie Steen this time. Esposing a similar return to the old Catholic ethos ruling Ireland.
Not a hope would Steen got in. Pity she didn't run wouldn't have to listen to all this girning from Toibín and Aontú folk.

You are probably right. Blocking her left her less open to scrutiny and accountability. She became far bigger than she really was shouting from the gallery and playing the victim.

That said we are in a different Ireland from when Dana ran in 2011.

The reality though is Her and her like are a threat and the momentum is building. So blocking her hides the true disquiet statistically for the moment.

 

Seems to be an overlap with the religious fundamentalism and far right MAGA mindset. Aontú paid huge tribute to Charlie Kirk.
She would have got torn apart in the debates with her record on different issues including same sex marriage and abortion... whatever one's opinion both were overwhelming voted in.

Whether you agree or disagree with her points of view, she would have wiped the floor with all of them in a debate

Problem is winning a debate counts for nothing.

Only thing that matters is who has the most votes on voting day.

Aontú very right wing. Plus Tobín gets some amount of airtime.

Far too much air time and it was him and his party that was pushing the line that "Steen was blocked" when in reality she ran out of time to secure the nominations needed, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a ploy as it got more talking about her than if on the ballot paper.

[weareros]

From Sbp - apologies for formatting.


Red C Poll: Coalition support falls again as Sinn Féin gains
● Disastrous campaign heaps pressure on
FF and FG as Connolly wins in landslide
DANIEL MURRAY
POLICY EDITOR

Fianna Fáil has suffered an-
other blow in the latest Busi-
ness Post/Red C Poll, continu-
ing a downward trend for the
government parties since the
general election which will
heap further pressure on Tao-
iseach Micheál Martin and Tá-
naiste Simon Harris.
It comes as Catherine
Connolly was elected as the
10th president of Ireland in
a landslide win on Saturday,
trouncing Fine Gael's Heather
Humphreys.
Fianna Fáil's support has
fallen to 17 per cent, down 1
percentage point since the last
poll, but down 5 points since
the general election almost a
year ago. Fine Gael's support
has remained static since the
last poll at 19 per cent but is
two percentage points lower
than when the government
was elected.
Sinn Féin, meanwhile, is up
to 23 per cent, rising 2 per-
centage points from the last
poll, but up 4 points from the
election.
The new figures show the
government parties, togeth-
er, have fallen 7 percentage
points since the general
election. Taking Sinn Féin's
rise into account, the gap be-
tween the combined Fianna
Fáil-Fine Gael vote and the
main opposition party has
narrowed by a significant 11
percentage points.
With Martin's stock down
amid rumblings in the party
about a challenge to his lead-
ership before the next elec-
tion, Fianna Fáil's consistent
haemorrhaging of support
will ratchet up the pressure on
the taoiseach after Jim Gavin's
disastrous campaign.
By evening, counts from
around the country had Con-
nolly on 64 per cent of the vote
with Humphreys lagging far
behind on just 28.77 per cent.
"I'm absolutely delighted
with the support and I would
like to thank all of my voters,"
Connolly said from the count
centre in Galway on Saturday.
Humphreys conceded by
2pm, wishing Connolly well
and adding that she had "not
one regret".
Martin said Connolly had
secured a "clear mandate"
and would "no doubt" serve
the country well.
The number of spoiled votes
emerged as a major theme of
the election with tallies of
some ballot boxes showing
the proportion hitting 15 per
cent, highlighting widespread
dissatisfaction with both the
choice of candidates and, in
some instances, the govern-
ment itself. Harris said he
wanted to "get under the bon-
net" of the issues alienating a
sizeable cohort of voters.
He defended Humphreys'
performance, arguing that she
was on course to have won
"way more" than Fine Gael's
share of the vote based on
polling and the last general
election. "Heather attracted
the Fine Gael vote plus some
more votes, but lots of oth-
er people who didn't wish
to vote Fine Gael coalesced
around Catherine Connolly,"
he said at Dublin Castle.
One senior party source
said Fine Gael was the "only
party that ended up contest-
ing this election".
"Ultimately you ended up
in a position where you had
one party contesting an elec-
tion against a candidate that
was backed by five parties.
That was always going to be
a major challenge."
As support for the coalition
partners ebbs away, left-wing
parties have been the main
beneficiaries with the Social
Democrats, which backed
Connolly's campaign from the
outset, gaining 2 percentage
points to reach a record high
of 9 per cent.
Holly Cairns's party has
now gained 4 percentage
points since the general
election. Independents are on
12 per cent (+1), the Labour
Party on 4 per cent (–), Aontú
on 4 per cent (+1), the Green
Party on 3 per cent (–), PBP-
Solidarity on 3 per cent (-1),
and Independent Ireland on 5
per cent (-1). Some 10 per cent
of voters were undecided.
Sinn Féin's support has
grown significantly from its
low point of 17 per cent a year
ago, to 23 per cent.
It remains considerably
below its 36 per cent vote
share in May 2022, however.
Sinn Féin, Social Demo-
crats, Labour, the Green Party
and PBP-Solidarity account
for a combined 42 per cent
share of the vote – ahead of
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil's
combined 36 per cent.

[seafoid]

From Sbp - apologies for formatting.


Red C Poll: Coalition support falls again as Sinn Féin gains
● Disastrous campaign heaps pressure on
FF and FG as Connolly wins in landslide
DANIEL MURRAY
POLICY EDITOR

Fianna Fáil has suffered an-
other blow in the latest Busi-
ness Post/Red C Poll, continu-
ing a downward trend for the
government parties since the
general election which will
heap further pressure on Tao-
iseach Micheál Martin and Tá-
naiste Simon Harris.
It comes as Catherine
Connolly was elected as the
10th president of Ireland in
a landslide win on Saturday,
trouncing Fine Gael's Heather
Humphreys.
Fianna Fáil's support has
fallen to 17 per cent, down 1
percentage point since the last
poll, but down 5 points since
the general election almost a
year ago. Fine Gael's support
has remained static since the
last poll at 19 per cent but is
two percentage points lower
than when the government
was elected.
Sinn Féin, meanwhile, is up
to 23 per cent, rising 2 per-
centage points from the last
poll, but up 4 points from the
election.
The new figures show the
government parties, togeth-
er, have fallen 7 percentage
points since the general
election. Taking Sinn Féin's
rise into account, the gap be-
tween the combined Fianna
Fáil-Fine Gael vote and the
main opposition party has
narrowed by a significant 11
percentage points.
With Martin's stock down
amid rumblings in the party
about a challenge to his lead-
ership before the next elec-
tion, Fianna Fáil's consistent
haemorrhaging of support
will ratchet up the pressure on
the taoiseach after Jim Gavin's
disastrous campaign.
By evening, counts from
around the country had Con-
nolly on 64 per cent of the vote
with Humphreys lagging far
behind on just 28.77 per cent.
"I'm absolutely delighted
with the support and I would
like to thank all of my voters,"
Connolly said from the count
centre in Galway on Saturday.
Humphreys conceded by
2pm, wishing Connolly well
and adding that she had "not
one regret".
Martin said Connolly had
secured a "clear mandate"
and would "no doubt" serve
the country well.
The number of spoiled votes
emerged as a major theme of
the election with tallies of
some ballot boxes showing
the proportion hitting 15 per
cent, highlighting widespread
dissatisfaction with both the
choice of candidates and, in
some instances, the govern-
ment itself. Harris said he
wanted to "get under the bon-
net" of the issues alienating a
sizeable cohort of voters.
He defended Humphreys'
performance, arguing that she
was on course to have won
"way more" than Fine Gael's
share of the vote based on
polling and the last general
election. "Heather attracted
the Fine Gael vote plus some
more votes, but lots of oth-
er people who didn't wish
to vote Fine Gael coalesced
around Catherine Connolly,"
he said at Dublin Castle.
One senior party source
said Fine Gael was the "only
party that ended up contest-
ing this election".
"Ultimately you ended up
in a position where you had
one party contesting an elec-
tion against a candidate that
was backed by five parties.
That was always going to be
a major challenge."
As support for the coalition
partners ebbs away, left-wing
parties have been the main
beneficiaries with the Social
Democrats, which backed
Connolly's campaign from the
outset, gaining 2 percentage
points to reach a record high
of 9 per cent.
Holly Cairns's party has
now gained 4 percentage
points since the general
election. Independents are on
12 per cent (+1), the Labour
Party on 4 per cent (–), Aontú
on 4 per cent (+1), the Green
Party on 3 per cent (–), PBP-
Solidarity on 3 per cent (-1),
and Independent Ireland on 5
per cent (-1). Some 10 per cent
of voters were undecided.
Sinn Féin's support has
grown significantly from its
low point of 17 per cent a year
ago, to 23 per cent.
It remains considerably
below its 36 per cent vote
share in May 2022, however.
Sinn Féin, Social Demo-
crats, Labour, the Green Party
and PBP-Solidarity account
for a combined 42 per cent
share of the vote – ahead of
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil's
combined 36 per cent.

"Sinn Féin, Social Demo-
crats, Labour, the Green Party
and PBP-Solidarity account
for a combined 42 per cent
share of the vote – ahead of
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil's
combined 36 per cent."

These numbers will be worth following

[From the Bunker]

Exit Polls have been proven to be rubbish over the last decade or so.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/26/ff-needs-to-reinvent-itself-after-campaign-shambles-party-td-says/

Fianna Fáil's presidential election campaign was a "shambles" and the party needs to "reinvent itself for the future", including a change of leader "in due course", according to one of its TDs.

Fianna Fáil Carlow-Kilkenny TD John McGuinness – who has been a long-time critic of party leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin – also confirmed on Sunday that he voted for Catherine Connolly, the left-wing Independent TD who won the presidential election.

[From the Bunker]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/26/ff-needs-to-reinvent-itself-after-campaign-shambles-party-td-says/

Fianna Fáil's presidential election campaign was a "shambles" and the party needs to "reinvent itself for the future", including a change of leader "in due course", according to one of its TDs.

Fianna Fáil Carlow-Kilkenny TD John McGuinness – who has been a long-time critic of party leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin – also confirmed on Sunday that he voted for Catherine Connolly, the left-wing Independent TD who won the presidential election.

But sure he said after JG pulled out that he was voting HH?

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/11/micheal-martin-will-vote-for-heather-humphreys-but-wont-tell-party-to-back-fg-contender/

[Tubberman]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/26/ff-needs-to-reinvent-itself-after-campaign-shambles-party-td-says/

Fianna Fáil's presidential election campaign was a "shambles" and the party needs to "reinvent itself for the future", including a change of leader "in due course", according to one of its TDs.

Fianna Fáil Carlow-Kilkenny TD John McGuinness – who has been a long-time critic of party leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin – also confirmed on Sunday that he voted for Catherine Connolly, the left-wing Independent TD who won the presidential election.

But sure he said after JG pulled out that he was voting HH?

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/11/micheal-martin-will-vote-for-heather-humphreys-but-wont-tell-party-to-back-fg-contender/

That piece is saying that McGuinness (who has been a critic of Míchéal Martin) voted for CC.

[From the Bunker]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/26/ff-needs-to-reinvent-itself-after-campaign-shambles-party-td-says/

Fianna Fáil's presidential election campaign was a "shambles" and the party needs to "reinvent itself for the future", including a change of leader "in due course", according to one of its TDs.

Fianna Fáil Carlow-Kilkenny TD John McGuinness – who has been a long-time critic of party leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin – also confirmed on Sunday that he voted for Catherine Connolly, the left-wing Independent TD who won the presidential election.

But sure he said after JG pulled out that he was voting HH?

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/11/micheal-martin-will-vote-for-heather-humphreys-but-wont-tell-party-to-back-fg-contender/

That piece is saying that McGuinness (who has been a critic of Míchéal Martin) voted for CC.

Strange headline then.

[Rossfan]

Martin's days as leader coming to an end as a few TDs are publicly calling on him to go.

[Truthsayer]

Considering Dana got 2% in 2011 it is doubtful there would have given a huge vote for Marie Steen this time. Esposing a similar return to the old Catholic ethos ruling Ireland.
Not a hope would Steen got in. Pity she didn't run wouldn't have to listen to all this girning from Toibín and Aontú folk.

You are probably right. Blocking her left her less open to scrutiny and accountability. She became far bigger than she really was shouting from the gallery and playing the victim.

That said we are in a different Ireland from when Dana ran in 2011.

The reality though is Her and her like are a threat and the momentum is building. So blocking her hides the true disquiet statistically for the moment.

 

Seems to be an overlap with the religious fundamentalism and far right MAGA mindset. Aontú paid huge tribute to Charlie Kirk.
She would have got torn apart in the debates with her record on different issues including same sex marriage and abortion... whatever one's opinion both were overwhelming voted in.

Whether you agree or disagree with her points of view, she would have wiped the floor with all of them in a debate

the Ireland you and Marie yearn for is gone Whitey. Those same sex marriage and abortion votes showed that as did Dana's effort to be President. It's 2025 not 1970.. thank God whoever your god maybe 🙏 

[seafoid]

https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/1026/1540698-fianna-fail-politics/

Members of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party are actively talking about Taoiseach Micheál Martin's leadership, a senior TD has said.

In a potentially significant intervention, John Lahart told RTÉ News that he agreed with his colleague John McGuinness that there must be a discussion about the leadership.

Mr McGuinness said that the party needs a new leader in the not too distant future.

"It is a conversation that the party needs to have. The events of the last few weeks, the result yesterday, and the outcome of the result have brought that conversation forward," Mr Lahart said.




He said there was a huge amount of respect for Mr Martin and what he has achieved as leader over 14 years, but the Presidential election result reflected an error of judgement that will have consequences.





Mr Lahart said the centre has not held politically and a left-right divide has been created in Irish politics for the first time.

"I don't think Fianna Fáil can just sit back and observe that," he said.

[gallsman]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/26/ff-needs-to-reinvent-itself-after-campaign-shambles-party-td-says/

Fianna Fáil's presidential election campaign was a "shambles" and the party needs to "reinvent itself for the future", including a change of leader "in due course", according to one of its TDs.

Fianna Fáil Ca

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/26/ff-needs-to-reinvent-itself-after-campaign-shambles-party-td-says/

Fianna Fáil's presidential election campaign was a "shambles" and the party needs to "reinvent itself for the future", including a change of leader "in due course", according to one of its TDs.

Fianna Fáil Carlow-Kilkenny TD John McGuinness – who has been a long-time critic of party leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin – also confirmed on Sunday that he voted for Catherine Connolly, the left-wing Independent TD who won the presidential election.

But sure he said after JG pulled out that he was voting HH?

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/11/micheal-martin-will-vote-for-heather-humphreys-but-wont-tell-party-to-back-fg-contender/

That piece is saying that McGuinness (who has been a critic of Míchéal Martin) voted for CC.

Strange headline then.

rlow-Kilkenny TD John McGuinness – who has been a long-time critic of party leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin – also confirmed on Sunday that he voted for Catherine Connolly, the left-wing Independent TD who won the presidential election.

But sure he said after JG pulled out that he was voting HH?

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/11/micheal-martin-will-vote-for-heather-humphreys-but-wont-tell-party-to-back-fg-contender/

That piece is saying that McGuinness (who has been a critic of Míchéal Martin) voted for CC.

Strange headline then.

No it's not. The headline of the original article talks about John McGuinness saying that he voted for Connolly. You then misread the extract from the article and posted another article talking about Martin saying he would vote for Humphreys.

[Rossfan]

A acary dangerous bunch of Trumplites....

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2025/1025/1540566-who-was-behind-the-spoil-the-vote-campaign/

[From the Bunker]

A acary dangerous bunch of Trumplites....

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2025/1025/1540566-who-was-behind-the-spoil-the-vote-campaign/

A group of powerless people voicing an opinion with little or no mainstream attention. They're not scary!

I'd be looking elsewhere for the Scary people. The ones without a face but are pulling the strings.