Westminster General Election 2024

[Feckitt]

There are none so blind as those that cannot see!  The evidence of demographic change is overwhelming.  It is clear to see in every facet of life here, not least in the election results if people can read them properly and stop swallowing the rhetoric of the loyal media.

Example 1.  Lagan Valley.  According to the 2021 Census, this constituency is 24% catholic.  A minority, but a big enough minority to get behind a good Alliance candidate and help her win.  Alliance got 38%, SDLP 2%, SF, PBP and Aontú did not stand.  Therefore the line from Befast Telegraph/BBC/Fine Gael is that only 2% of the voters here support Irish Unity.  Of course this is nonsense.

Example 2.  Seats.  It has been reported and requoted above on this page that the Nationalist vote is broadly the same as 1997!.  In 1997 Unionists won West Tyrone, Fermanagh South Tyrone, North Belfast, South Belfast and Lagan Valley.  The first four of those will never be won by a unionist again as long as the state exists.

Example 3.  Belfast.  The capital of Northern Ireland has an increasingly dwindling Unionist population.  3 of the 4 Westminster seats are held by Nationalists.  In last years Belfast City Council elections, only 29% voted for Unionist parties.

[Milltown Row2]

So with all those facts, why hasn't taken place and when do you think it will?

Will there still be a need for so of themuns to vote for a UI or will there be enough of ussuns to get it over the line?

[Feckitt]

The game changer will be when the Irish Government decides this needs to happen.  The SF setback in the South this year is a major blow in this regard.  FF/FG can just continue to ignore it all, especially if they win the upcoming election and there are no more Northern elections until 2027.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

So with all those facts, why hasn't taken place and when do you think it will?

Will there still be a need for so of themuns to vote for a UI or will there be enough of ussuns to get it over the line?

Quite clearly the middle ground vote has been getting greener and greener. The nationalist vote has stagnated or even gone backwards from it's high point of 45% in the 99 euro election, however the middle ground is very different today. The greens were probably always looked on as a bit taigy but the Alliance party very much was a Unionist party all be it with a small u. Fast forward 25 yrs and a recent survey shows more alliance party members in favour of Unity, their voters transfer to nationalist over unionist at a rate of 3-1. Even the likes of former leader John Alderdice know which way things are going it's just the current leadership still seems a bit too hesitant and don't want to rock the boat. Let's not forget the PBP are also others yet are probably more keen on a UI than SF.

I wouldn't trust polling they are usually flawed especially the University of Liverpool junk. It should be a case of if there are more nationalist MLA's than unionist mla's in 2 or 3 assembly elections in a row then that should be time. If that doesn't happen I would full expect a Joe Bloggs (with SF and SDLP pulling the strings) to take the SoS to court.

[weareros]

There are none so blind as those that cannot see!  The evidence of demographic change is overwhelming.  It is clear to see in every facet of life here, not least in the election results if people can read them properly and stop swallowing the rhetoric of the loyal media.

Example 1.  Lagan Valley.  According to the 2021 Census, this constituency is 24% catholic.  A minority, but a big enough minority to get behind a good Alliance candidate and help her win.  Alliance got 38%, SDLP 2%, SF, PBP and Aontú did not stand.  Therefore the line from Befast Telegraph/BBC/Fine Gael is that only 2% of the voters here support Irish Unity.  Of course this is nonsense.

What's the point of that. It only feeds the Ben Lowry nonsense. Sorcha Eastwood is from an Irish Catholic background that will take an oath of allegiance and support British rule. She's the type that sees Northern Ireland as its own nationality. Everyone knows there's nationalist votes in East Belfast and Lagan Valley but some think it's better to have a Moderate Unionist MP than demonstrate the strength of the Irish unity vote. Alliance don't step aside to help nationalists win in marginal like North Belfast and target South Belfast. Based on second preferences, they've taken a lot of what would be nationalist votes which now get interpreted as votes to maintain  the status quo. It's of no value to nationalism in the long run. 

[JPGJOHNNYG]

There are none so blind as those that cannot see!  The evidence of demographic change is overwhelming.  It is clear to see in every facet of life here, not least in the election results if people can read them properly and stop swallowing the rhetoric of the loyal media.

Example 1.  Lagan Valley.  According to the 2021 Census, this constituency is 24% catholic.  A minority, but a big enough minority to get behind a good Alliance candidate and help her win.  Alliance got 38%, SDLP 2%, SF, PBP and Aontú did not stand.  Therefore the line from Befast Telegraph/BBC/Fine Gael is that only 2% of the voters here support Irish Unity.  Of course this is nonsense.

What's the point of that. It only feeds the Ben Lowry nonsense. Sorcha Eastwood is from an Irish Catholic background that will take an oath of allegiance and support British rule. She's the type that sees Northern Ireland as its own nationality. Everyone knows there's nationalist votes in East Belfast and Lagan Valley but some think it's better to have a Moderate Unionist MP than demonstrate the strength of the Irish unity vote. Alliance don't step aside to help nationalists win in marginal like North Belfast and target South Belfast. Based on second preferences, they've taken a lot of what would be nationalist votes which now get interpreted as votes to maintain  the status quo. It's of no value to nationalism in the long run. 

I would still prefer an alliance MP than a full on Unionist but Alliance will have to come off that fence sooner or later the closer we get to to a border poll, they can't just keep spoofing on the subject. If they keep saying they are neither then as I noted earlier they should be discarded then on the numbers game hence more nationalist MLA's than unionist mla's as the indicator

[Father Murphy]

How long before Joe is spotted naked in the street shouting at cars?

https://x.com/joebrolly1993/status/1810434521549910272?s=46

[Sportacus]

So with all those facts, why hasn't taken place and when do you think it will?

Will there still be a need for so of themuns to vote for a UI or will there be enough of ussuns to get it over the line?

Hard to tell. Turnout this time was a feeble 58%.  Would we assume turnout for a Border Poll would be much higher, in which case there are a hell of a lot of votes to play for and which are not understood.
Serious work is now needed to present the case economically, culturally and socially. 
Saw three boneheads hanging Union Jacks last night in a very mixed area, and went home half in bad form and half thinking their days are numbered.

[tiempo]

If political Unionism had any wherewithal they would have had the border poll in the early 2000s after the GFA

With a multitude of other factors their death grip with be part of their undoing, as the old brigade die off that bit more over the next 5-10 years the arse will fall out of their numbers altogether

[Milltown Row2]

So with all those facts, why hasn't taken place and when do you think it will?

Will there still be a need for so of themuns to vote for a UI or will there be enough of ussuns to get it over the line?

Hard to tell. Turnout this time was a feeble 58%.  Would we assume turnout for a Border Poll would be much higher, in which case there are a hell of a lot of votes to play for and which are not understood.
Serious work is now needed to present the case economically, culturally and socially. 
Saw three boneheads hanging Union Jacks last night in a very mixed area, and went home half in bad form and half thinking their days are numbered.

Yeah, the fleg hanging in mixed areas is a pain in the hole, little or no respect for their neighbours, though I live in a mix'ish area, once I leave that I'm into the fleg waving Newtownabbey and it's a bit like tinnitus its annoying but you just live with it and before long its not noticeable! (as much)

[imtommygunn]

The flags in mixed areas would annoy me I have to say - just like the paras flags. Very antagonistic. I drive through areas covered in union jacks all the time and couldn't give a shite but the likes of that mixed estate etc recently - it's just neanderthal knuckle dragging. It comes to a point from staunch areas being "gentrified" I think too which causes more insecurity on top of border poll talk etc.

[Kidder81]

It's the UVF flags down along Boucher I have a real issue with that are allowed to fly

[Brendan]

There's a roundabout just outside Limavady that has been painted Red White and Blue for about 10 years now, they even have the audacity to freshen it up now and again without any hassle from the police. Limavady town itself wouldn't be far from 50/50 these days if not already a slight nationalist majority

[tiempo]

There's a roundabout just outside Limavady that has been painted Red White and Blue for about 10 years now, they even have the audacity to freshen it up now and again without any hassle from the police. Limavady town itself wouldn't be far from 50/50 these days if not already a slight nationalist majority

Billybinghamvalley and Cookstownsizzleglen, gets me every time

[imtommygunn]

It's the UVF flags down along Boucher I have a real issue with that are allowed to fly

They're all legit and commemorating the old UVF 

Ai dead on...