Westminster General Election 2024

[Duine Inteacht Eile]

So Benn adamant that there's only one criteria for a border poll and SOS has to feel a majority would vote for a UI. So perhaps the likes of Joe Brolly should leave Carla Hunter alone and ask why Sinn Fein are stepping aside for Alliance. Those votes do not contribute to the overall nationalist vote and will only hold back that decision.

It's a brilliant criteria to be fair.

[Brendan]

How many are going to call it East LondonDerry on here, hear enough of that shite from the West Brits at matches

[imtommygunn]

I think there is a problem in nationalism though. The sdlp are falling away which gives no viable alternative to sf. Your problem there becomes that there will be people, and I suspect a reasonable few, who would be uncomfortable voting for sf. If their votes go to alliance then they don't go to nationalism.  The whys and wherefores of why people would do that is irrelevant. Unionism is fractured but they do have multiple parties to vote for so you would find a home. The sdlp are falling away and nationalism doesn't really have a viable alternative if that downward spiral continues.

Also it's Cara...

[Duine Inteacht Eile]

I think there is a problem in nationalism though. The sdlp are falling away which gives no viable alternative to sf. Your problem there becomes that there will be people, and I suspect a reasonable few, who would be uncomfortable voting for sf. If their votes go to alliance then they don't go to nationalism.  The whys and wherefores of why people would do that is irrelevant. Unionism is fractured but they do have multiple parties to vote for so you would find a home. The sdlp are falling away and nationalism doesn't really have a viable alternative if that downward spiral continues.

Also it's Cara...

Aontu, PBP (might not be nationalist on paper but....)
I think the SDLP are dying a natural death. And I mean it in the most literal sense.
But yeah, moderates on both sides will go to Alliance. It's what they are there for I suppose.

[imtommygunn]

Why do you think the sdlp are dying a natural death? I do wonder about whether Eastwood is the right man to lead them though maybe no alternative.

[Duine Inteacht Eile]

The age profile of the SDLP voter. They are literally dying.

Also, in many ways, have they not run out of road? Honestly, what would attract a new voter to them?

[Armagh18]

Not sure why you would vote for the sdlp at all tbh unless its them or a dup'er

[Milltown Row2]

Not sure why you would vote for the sdlp at all tbh unless its them or a dup'er

People will vote for personalities, if someone comes across as genuine has good core values and you believe in what they say then you'll vote for that person, the party is immaterial.

For some SF still have some baggage, it'll take time yet for the older voters to be not around anymore, the young nationalists coming through will be voting SF,I think alliance will also get stronger over the next 20 years as they'll be a better choice to sensible younger voters who'd traditionally voted unionist

[imtommygunn]

The age profile of the SDLP voter. They are literally dying.

Also, in many ways, have they not run out of road? Honestly, what would attract a new voter to them?

Currently not much I guess...

[marty34]

This is my final point on this issue. I see Eastwood and Hanna are giving out, complaining about the recent election and what people are saying about them standing/not standing in certain areas. 

Now the key thing is that Eastwood wanted to stand everywhere to add to their percentage vote - as he knows that he's failing badly as their leader. People will say well, that's his job, isn't it? But he's not a team player - other parties stood aside in certain areas to aid progressive candidates. They didn't, regardless of who they put up. That's the difference.

Now SDLP and Hanna got a free run in south Belfast and MD but they didn't recipocrate anywhere.  A few people on here are complaining saying, as above, why should they but they did it in north Belfast at the last WM election.  That's my point.  Why do it the last time but not this time? It suited them the last time - as I say, not a team player.   

Isn't it ironic that any questioning/debate on this is labelled sectarian and trolling etc. by the SDLP whereas in the weeks before the election, they were joining in on the unionist/Nolan pile on on Pat Cullen in FST? The SDLP are spoofing about nationalist parties working together while a few days ago they put up pictures of a candiate V an empty chair (i.e. not taking seats in London). Their candidate in Newry area alledgely talking about putting stickers on a donkey.  How ironic? Ah well, at least it wasn't a crocodile!


Anybody with any savvy can see what this is all about.  This is a deflection from the SDLP's, and by extension, Eastwood's poor leadership. This is what this is all about - deflection by Eastwood and Hanna. But they'll be grand on the green benches. 

 

[marty34]

I wonder will Benn and Labour cough up any more money re: Casement Park?

Does anybody know the date when UEFA hav their deadline? It couldn't be very far away now.

[red hander]

This is my final point on this issue. I see Eastwood and Hanna are giving out, complaining about the recent election and what people are saying about them standing/not standing in certain areas. 

Now the key thing is that Eastwood wanted to stand everywhere to add to their percentage vote - as he knows that he's failing badly as their leader. People will say well, that's his job, isn't it? But he's not a team player - other parties stood aside in certain areas to aid progressive candidates. They didn't, regardless of who they put up. That's the difference.

Now SDLP and Hanna got a free run in south Belfast and MD but they didn't recipocrate anywhere.  A few people on here are complaining saying, as above, why should they but they did it in north Belfast at the last WM election.  That's my point.  Why do it the last time but not this time? It suited them the last time - as I say, not a team player.   

Isn't it ironic that any questioning/debate on this is labelled sectarian and trolling etc. by the SDLP whereas in the weeks before the election, they were joining in on the unionist/Nolan pile on on Pat Cullen in FST? The SDLP are spoofing about nationalist parties working together while a few days ago they put up pictures of a candiate V an empty chair (i.e. not taking seats in London). Their candidate in Newry area alledgely talking about putting stickers on a donkey.  How ironic? Ah well, at least it wasn't a crocodile!


Anybody with any savvy can see what this is all about.  This is a deflection from the SDLP's, and by extension, Eastwood's poor leadership. This is what this is all about - deflection by Eastwood and Hanna. But they'll be grand on the green benches. 

 

Aye, and when they are finally fucked out on their ears no doubt they'll join Baroness Ritchie of West Britainshire on the red benches.

[93-DY-SAM]

Aye, and when they are finally fucked out on their ears no doubt they'll join Baroness Ritchie of West Britainshire on the red benches.

That was a disgraceful position for any so-called nationalist to take up. Not sure how Colm squares that in his quest for unity.

[weareros]

So Benn adamant that there's only one criteria for a border poll and SOS has to feel a majority would vote for a UI. So perhaps the likes of Joe Brolly should leave Carla Hunter alone and ask why Sinn Fein are stepping aside for Alliance. Those votes do not contribute to the overall nationalist vote and will only hold back that decision.

It's a brilliant criteria to be fair.

It may be but it's a jam tomorrow never today criteria. What does a SOS look at to decide a majority would vote for a UI.

He can look at Census but only 29% see themselves as Irish. He's not going to take those who see themselves as Northern Irish first, not should he. If you want a UI, you'd imagine their nationality is Irish and not the made up our wee country statelet, even if a lot from Catholic gene pool are now picking "Northern Ireland" as their nationality.

He can look at opinion polls and the problem is those given most credence (eg Arins which has a lot of prominent academics involved) has it still at 30%. LucidTalk has it higher at 41%. But all the others are low too so in a combination of polls there's a long way to go. Of course it's asked in a way that keeps it low too.

Then there's the nationalist vote in general elections. It was 40% in 1997 and it's 40% now, which is why I said it's stupid conceding percentages to Alliance - who are still a status quo and therefore Unionist party. Yes Sorcha we saw your Union Jack dress. It was 44% in locals, so it's clearly a bit higher if nationalists maximized votes. Number of MPs at Westminster clearly mean nothing to SOS as there's already a nationalist majority.

Benn or Starmer have not a notion of granting a border poll. They will always be looking for a certain jam tomorrow never today majority before a date is even picked. If that number has to be comfortably over 50%, then that won't be happening any day soon. 

[Milltown Row2]

So Benn adamant that there's only one criteria for a border poll and SOS has to feel a majority would vote for a UI. So perhaps the likes of Joe Brolly should leave Carla Hunter alone and ask why Sinn Fein are stepping aside for Alliance. Those votes do not contribute to the overall nationalist vote and will only hold back that decision.

It's a brilliant criteria to be fair.

It may be but it's a jam tomorrow never today criteria. What does a SOS look at to decide a majority would vote for a UI.

He can look at Census but only 29% see themselves as Irish. He's not going to take those who see themselves as Northern Irish first, not should he. If you want a UI, you'd imagine their nationality is Irish and not the made up our wee country statelet, even if a lot from Catholic gene pool are now picking "Northern Ireland" as their nationality.

He can look at opinion polls and the problem is those given most credence (eg Arins which has a lot of prominent academics involved) has it still at 30%. LucidTalk has it higher at 41%. But all the others are low too so in a combination of polls there's a long way to go. Of course it's asked in a way that keeps it low too.

Then there's the nationalist vote in general elections. It was 40% in 1997 and it's 40% now, which is why I said it's stupid conceding percentages to Alliance - who are still a status quo and therefore Unionist party. Yes Sorcha we saw your Union Jack dress. It was 44% in locals, so it's clearly a bit higher if nationalists maximized votes. Number of MPs at Westminster clearly mean nothing to SOS as there's already a nationalist majority.

Benn or Starmer have not a notion of granting a border poll. They will always be looking for a certain jam tomorrow never today majority before a date is even picked. If that number has to be comfortably over 50%, then that won't be happening any day soon. 

What would be the birth rates nowadays in comparison to 20 plus years ago? I'd say on both sides its similar and with education on the nationalist side generating degrees, then the young ones here wouldn't all be staying home, living abroad seeking their fortune elsewhere seems to be popular on tiktok 

Border poll might not be held in the next ten years, just don't think the numbers are there yet, hopefully in my lifetime but, its been 100 years plus now, god knows what's ahead of us during that period, globally