The Many Faces of US Politics...

[An Watcher]

Here, he just needs Nevada and Arizona, forget about the rest

[J70]

Bear in mind you're talking about multiple neck and neck two horse races where one horse could win each by a nose. That's what Trump did in 2016.
Biden could do it too, but Trump is the one defending the lead amidst diminishing numbers of votes in GA and PA. If he holds on in those, and then sneaks past in AZ, its done.
Those are crazy odds on Biden given how tight it currently is, although they are obviously following the money.

[J70]

Apparently 25K more votes left in GA, with Trump 18K ahead.

Hard to see Biden getting enough of those to win.

This f**ker's going to come down to PA.

Anyone else getting nervous about Trump eking out another razor-thin series of victories across multiple states like he did four years ago?

NYT tracker I'm looking at right now has Trump less than 20k in the lead with 96% of 4.9m votes counted - so there should be about 200k left? Though I appreciate that might have been as of an hour or two ago.

If the Republican senator there drops beneath 50% of votes (looks possible) then there's a run off in January for his seat (might that be the extra seat the Dems need?).

I'm quoting the 538 tracker, from their post at 7:18am EST.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

[Hound]

Race tightening in Arizona with every batch, state definitely still in play. CNN reports that if the final votes have the same proportion as recent batches then Trump will overtake Biden. But no guarantee of that of course.

I'm still sceptical about Nevada predictions.

I see that if AZ and Nevada turn to Trump and Biden overtakes in Georgia (on course but also far from guaranteed), with everything else staying the same, then it would be 269-269 !

Big If on Trump holding PA. It doesn't look likely he will.

Still too tight to call. Biden's trajectory is good, but nobody knows how many votes are left, so not impossible that he falls short.

Same for Georgia. Will there be enough votes left for him to pass Trump? Trajectory looks great, but just not sure if there's enough uncounted vote out there.

[mouview]

Do think he will take GA and PA. Hope he takes the lot to copperfasten it and give Trump and co. no avenue for appeals.
Are WI and Michigan in the bag for sure?

[gallsman]

Here, he just needs Nevada and Arizona, forget about the rest

Don't, as Trump is making gains in AZ. It's not a given yet.

[five points]

Either way, the thing is likely to drag on for weeks as it did in 2000. It would be torture to have money wagered on that sort of slow bike race.

[Hound]

Bear in mind you're talking about multiple neck and neck two horse races where one horse could win each by a nose. That's what Trump did in 2016.
Biden could do it too, but Trump is the one defending the lead amidst diminishing numbers of votes in GA and PA. If he holds on in those, and then sneaks past in AZ, its done.
Those are crazy odds on Biden given how tight it currently is, although they are obviously following the money.

Absolutely agree.  There's still a pathway for Trump to win. Nobody can call with certainty any of PA, AZ, Nevada, Georgia. The next batch of votes do not have to correlate with the previous batch.
They could all go red, all blue, or a mix.

I think it's right that Biden is favourite, but not by as much. But things can change quickly as the next batches come in!

[An Watcher]

Yeah but as someone said its an uphill struggle to bring it back to him. Trump in Arizona that is.
Any idea if or when that and nevada will be announced. Someone said nevada will be announced at 5 however not sure if that's the final count or just an update. Hard keeping track??

[Main Street]

Is a tie in the senate out of the question?

[Main Street]

Bear in mind you're talking about multiple neck and neck two horse races where one horse could win each by a nose. That's what Trump did in 2016.
Biden could do it too, but Trump is the one defending the lead amidst diminishing numbers of votes in GA and PA. If he holds on in those, and then sneaks past in AZ, its done.
Those are crazy odds on Biden given how tight it currently is, although they are obviously following the money.

Absolutely agree.  There's still a pathway for Trump to win. Nobody can call with certainty any of PA, AZ, Nevada, Georgia. The next batch of votes do not have to correlate with the previous batch.
They could all go red, all blue, or a mix.

I think it's right that Biden is favourite, but not by as much. But things can change quickly as the next batches come in!

Would you give me odds of 4/6?  even 1/2?   My last offer I'll take 1/4?     

[Hound]

Yeah but as someone said its an uphill struggle to bring it back to him. Trump in Arizona that is.
Any idea if or when that and nevada will be announced. Someone said nevada will be announced at 5 however not sure if that's the final count or just an update. Hard keeping track??

Pretty sure that CNN said Nevada aren't going to release any more batches, they're just going to release them all at the same time when counting is done. No idea when that's expected, would guess much later today given their west coast location

[Hound]

Bear in mind you're talking about multiple neck and neck two horse races where one horse could win each by a nose. That's what Trump did in 2016.
Biden could do it too, but Trump is the one defending the lead amidst diminishing numbers of votes in GA and PA. If he holds on in those, and then sneaks past in AZ, its done.
Those are crazy odds on Biden given how tight it currently is, although they are obviously following the money.

Absolutely agree.  There's still a pathway for Trump to win. Nobody can call with certainty any of PA, AZ, Nevada, Georgia. The next batch of votes do not have to correlate with the previous batch.
They could all go red, all blue, or a mix.

I think it's right that Biden is favourite, but not by as much. But things can change quickly as the next batches come in!

Would you give me odds of 4/6?  even 1/2?   My last offer I'll take 1/4?     

🤔
As I said, I think it's right that Biden is favourite, so why would I bet against him if I think I'd lose the bet, regardless of the odds?!
And if I did want to bet on Trump (which I don't) I could find better odds than that.

[shark]

Yeah but as someone said its an uphill struggle to bring it back to him. Trump in Arizona that is.
Any idea if or when that and nevada will be announced. Someone said nevada will be announced at 5 however not sure if that's the final count or just an update. Hard keeping track??

Pretty sure that CNN said Nevada aren't going to release any more batches, they're just going to release them all at the same time when counting is done. No idea when that's expected, would guess much later today given their west coast location

1200hrs ET apparently

[Main Street]

Looks only a matter of  minutes/hours before Biden takes Georgia and the remaining 4 states are all falling his way.