The Many Faces of US Politics...

[heganboy]

it does?
what are the implications?

[seafoid]

it does?
what are the implications?

It means the economy is not going to recover. People are not going to get pay rises. Pension funds, banks and insurers will collapse. Income Inequality will widen

Trump rode a wave of blue collar disgust with the system. That will intensify. This election is a contest between an insider funded by the 1% and a  1%er representing blue collar rage. Neither will fix the system

[Eamonnca1]

stew,
with that note, and assuming the same applies to the republicans, is there a party or candidate that you can get behind in US politics?

The democrats are rotten to their core, Saunders was shafted and their leader at the convention got the bullet for her shite, throw in l kilorys email scandals and the dirty Clinton foundation scandal and you have a morally bankrupt party that is the reason the middle East is the way it is.

Who was president when the US invaded Iraq?

[heganboy]

it does?
what are the implications?

It means the economy is not going to recover. People are not going to get pay rises. Pension funds, banks and insurers will collapse. Income Inequality will widen

Only one of those is correct
Hint, its the last one, but not because of interest rates.

The low interest rates should be used to issue long term govvies to reboot the infrastructure and the education system. That would sorry out your pay rise and income gap concerns. Banks pension funds and insurers will be fine. Except the insurers writing flood and fire policies because they say there is no climate change. Those guys are screwed.

[stew]

I expect nothing but corruption from the liberals, speed of the leader,speed of the pack, I despise the Democrat party.

Despise?

You are getting soft!

You'll end up voting for Hillary yet.

Never going to happen, that woman is a hateful turd.

[seafoid]

it does?
what are the implications?

It means the economy is not going to recover. People are not going to get pay rises. Pension funds, banks and insurers will collapse. Income Inequality will widen

Only one of those is correct
Hint, its the last one, but not because of interest rates.

The low interest rates should be used to issue long term govvies to reboot the infrastructure and the education system. That would sorry out your pay rise and income gap concerns. Banks pension funds and insurers will be fine. Except the insurers writing flood and fire policies because they say there is no climate change. Those guys are screwed.

2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130301a.htm
If, as the FOMC anticipates, the economic recovery continues at a moderate pace, with unemployment slowly declining and inflation expectations remaining near 2 percent, then long-term interest rates would be expected to rise gradually toward more normal levels over the next several years. This rise would occur as the market's view of the expected date at which the Federal Reserve will begin the removal of policy accommodation draws nearer and then as accommodation is removed.


2016
https://www.brookings.edu/2016/08/08/the-feds-shifting-perspective-on-the-economy-and-its-implications-for-monetary-policy/
Over the past couple of years, FOMC participants have often signaled that they expected repeated increases in the federal funds rate as the economic recovery continued. In fact, the policy rate has been increased only once, in December 2015, and market participants now appear to expect few if any additional rate rises in coming quarters

Americans are not getting payrises
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/01/15/40-years-of-economic-policy-in-one-chart/

Insurers are in serious trouble

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-12/distressed-assets-pile-up-at-life-insurers-and-more-are-coming

[Declan]

[heganboy]

Seafoid,
First of all opinion pieces, both mine and bernanke's . I happen to agree completely with Mike Whitney on cause. The tax system which rewards capital and screws labor completely promotes inequality growth, and stagnates wages by design. It has accelerated under Obama, but less so than under a Romney or McCain presidency. It will snowball under either presidential candidates regime. Many view Bernie as a socialist and speak to that as a bad thing, sadly many economists (vox pop not credited) actually agree that many of his policies would have addressed employment and inequality in the uS, greatly promoting well being for anyone with a job outside of the one percenters. Utility and rational choice theory for the economists.

Bernanke's  policy assumptions just happen to promote asset growth agrees Whitney. All of his assumptions in his more recent piece about less accommodative policy, less tight labor and inflation pressure are based on his polling of friendly economists within the status quo. His view on the fed rate grossly overstates it's impact on the country (imho) by examining the impact on asset prices.

What percentage of the American population benefit from the growth in asset prices, versus the very well documented multiplier effect of increased employment of government spending on infrastructure especially in a low interest rate environment. That creates pay rises, inflation and interest rate increases which in turn reduces the cost of the initially issues govvies.

The question to ask is how important is the Fed rate outside of your mortgage payment? Federal policy is significantly more impactful. And I mean that on macro level. Tax policy and investment policy, bond issuance policy. All big factors. Why is the focus on national debt?

Everyone and their mother says balance the books, if you were a household Obama you'd have to balance your budget, blah blah.  The United started is an appreciating asset. Invest in it.

Rant posted from phone apologies for typos etc.

By the way the insurers capital asset allocation policy and dumb investment decisions will be bailed by lobbying of dumb politicians, or by donations to those in tight races.

[foxcommander]

Criminals committing a crime... What exactly is your point??

He's basically saying "here is a black person committing a crime, because that's what black people do."

Hey Eamon - still nothing from you about Milwaukee? I thought you'd be outraged at a police shooting. No condemnation of the officer involved? I'm shocked!

I wonder why isn't BLM making a bigger deal out of it like they have previously?

[stew]

Criminals committing a crime... What exactly is your point??

He's basically saying "here is a black person committing a crime, because that's what black people do."

Hey Eamon - still nothing from you about Milwaukee? I thought you'd be outraged at a police shooting. No condemnation of the officer involved? I'm shocked!

I wonder why isn't BLM making a bigger deal out of it like they have previously?

Did you expect anything else?


Blm has been hijacked by racist ignorant scum whose whole agenda is anarchy and the democrats are one hundred percent behind them, scumbags.


The

[seafoid]

Seafoid,
First of all opinion pieces, both mine and bernanke's . I happen to agree completely with Mike Whitney on cause. The tax system which rewards capital and screws labor completely promotes inequality growth, and stagnates wages by design. It has accelerated under Obama, but less so than under a Romney or McCain presidency. It will snowball under either presidential candidates regime. Many view Bernie as a socialist and speak to that as a bad thing, sadly many economists (vox pop not credited) actually agree that many of his policies would have addressed employment and inequality in the uS, greatly promoting well being for anyone with a job outside of the one percenters. Utility and rational choice theory for the economists.

Bernanke's  policy assumptions just happen to promote asset growth agrees Whitney. All of his assumptions in his more recent piece about less accommodative policy, less tight labor and inflation pressure are based on his polling of friendly economists within the status quo. His view on the fed rate grossly overstates it's impact on the country (imho) by examining the impact on asset prices.

What percentage of the American population benefit from the growth in asset prices, versus the very well documented multiplier effect of increased employment of government spending on infrastructure especially in a low interest rate environment. That creates pay rises, inflation and interest rate increases which in turn reduces the cost of the initially issues govvies.

The question to ask is how important is the Fed rate outside of your mortgage payment? Federal policy is significantly more impactful. And I mean that on macro level. Tax policy and investment policy, bond issuance policy. All big factors. Why is the focus on national debt?

Everyone and their mother says balance the books, if you were a household Obama you'd have to balance your budget, blah blah.  The United started is an appreciating asset. Invest in it.

Rant posted from phone apologies for typos etc.

By the way the insurers capital asset allocation policy and dumb investment decisions will be bailed by lobbying of dumb politicians, or by donations to those in tight races.

The Fed has pandered to the 1% since Greenssan.  Low rates mean deflation. It is ultra dangerous. The 1% prefer deflation because it increases their wealth . The US is looking at a rerun of the 30s . For infrastructure inv to happen the 1% have to be defeated. Is Hillary going to do it?

[heganboy]

The Fed has pandered to the 1% since Greenssan.  Low rates mean deflation. It is ultra dangerous. The 1% prefer deflation because it increases their wealth . The US is looking at a rerun of the 30s . For infrastructure inv to happen the 1% have to be defeated. Is Hillary going to do it?

agreed on the fed and the tax code.
No shot on Clinton spending on infrastructure, unless there's an angle in it.
I would disagree somewhat on deflation, but again thats an opinion.

[heganboy]

so how about this theory:

Friends,

Donald Trump never actually wanted to be president of the United States. I know this for a fact. I'm not going to say how I know it. I'm not saying that Trump and I shared the same agent or lawyer or stylist or, if we did, that that would have anything to do with anything. And I'm certainly not saying that I ever overheard anything at those agencies or in the hallways of NBC or anywhere else. But there are certain people reading this right now, they know who they are, and they know that every word in the following paragraphs actually happened.

Trump was unhappy with his deal as host and star of his hit NBC show, "The Apprentice" (and "The Celebrity Apprentice"). Simply put, he wanted more money. He had floated the idea before of possibly running for president in the hopes that the attention from that would make his negotiating position stronger. But he knew, as the self-proclaimed king of the dealmakers, that saying you're going to do something is bupkus — DOING it is what makes the bastards sit up and pay attention.

Trump had begun talking to other networks about moving his show. This was another way to get leverage — the fear of losing him to someone else — and when he "quietly" met with the head of one of those networks, and word got around, his hand was strengthened. He knew then that it was time to play his Big Card.

He decided to run for president.

Of course he wouldn't really have to RUN for president — just make the announcement, hold a few mega-rallies that would be packed with tens of thousands of fans, and wait for the first opinion polls to come in showing him — what else! — in first place! And then he would get whatever deal he wanted, worth millions more than what he was currently being paid.

So, on June 16 of last year, he rode down his golden escalator and opened his mouth. With no campaign staff, no 50-state campaign infrastructure — neither of which he needed because, remember, this wasn't going to be a real campaign — and with no prepared script, he went off the rails at his kick-off press conference, calling Mexicans "rapists" and "drug dealers" and pledging to build a wall to keep them all out. Jaws in the room were agape. His comments were so offensive, NBC, far from offering him a bigger paycheck, immediately fired him with this terse statement: "Due to the recent derogatory statements by Donald Trump regarding immigrants, NBCUniversal is ending its business relationship with Mr. Trump." NBC said it was also canceling the beauty pageants owned by Trump: Miss USA and Miss Universe. BOOM.

Trump was stunned. So much for the art of the deal. He never expected this, but he stuck to his plan anyway to increase his "value" in the eyes of the other networks by showing them how many millions of Americans wanted Him to be their Leader. He knew, of course (and the people he trusted also told him) that there was no way he was actually going to win many (if any) of the primaries, and he certainly would not become the Republican nominee, and NEVER would he EVER be the President of the United States. Of course not! Nor would he want to be! The job of being President is WORK and BORING and you have to live in the GHETTO of Washington, DC, in a SMALL 200-year old house that's damp and dreary and has only TWO floors! A "second floor" is not a penthouse! But none of this was a worry, as "Trump for President" was only a ruse that was going to last a few months.

And then something happened. And to be honest, if it happened to you, you might have reacted the same way. Trump, to his own surprise, ignited the country, especially among people who were the opposite of billionaires. He went straight to #1 in the polls of Republican voters. Up to 30,000 boisterous supporters started showing up to his rallies. TV ate it up. He became the first American celebrity to be able to book himself on any show he wanted to be on — and then NOT show up to the studio! From "Face the Nation" to "The Today Show" to Anderson Cooper, he was able to simply phone in and they'd put him on the air live. He could've been sitting on his golden toilet in Trump Tower for all we knew — and the media had no problem with any of that. In fact, CBS head Les Moonves famously admitted that Trump was very good for TV ratings and selling ads — music to the ears the NBC-spurned narcissist.

Trump fell in love with himself all over again, and he soon forgot his mission to get a good deal for a TV show. A TV show? Are you kldding — that's for losers like Chris Harrison, whoever that is (host of "The Bachelorette"). He was no longer king of the dealmakers — he was King of the World! His tiniest musings would be discussed and dissected everywhere by everybody for days, weeks, months! THAT never happened on "The Apprentice"! Host a TV show? He was the star of EVERY TV SHOW — and, soon, winning nearly every primary!

And then... you can see the moment it finally dawned on him... that "Oh shit!" revelation: "I'm actually going to be the Republican nominee — and my rich beautiful life is f#*@ing over!" It was the night he won the New Jersey primary. The headline on TIME.com was, "Donald Trump's Subdued Victory Speech After Winning New Jersey." Instead of it being one of his loud, brash speeches, it was downright depressing. No energy, no happiness, just the realization that now he was going to have to go through with this stunt that he started. It was no longer going to be performance art. He was going to have to go to work.

Soon, though, his karma caught up with him. Calling Mexicans "rapists" should have disqualified him on Day One (or for saying Obama wasn't born here, as he did in 2011). No, it took 13 months of racist, sexist, stupid comments before he finally undid himself with the trifecta of attacking the family of a slain soldier, ridiculing the Purple Heart and suggesting that the pro-gun crowd assassinate Hillary Clinton. By this past weekend, the look on his face said it all — "I hate this! I want my show back!" But it was too late. He was damaged goods, his brand beyond repair, a worldwide laughing stock — and worse, a soon-to-be loser.

But, let me throw out another theory, one that assumes that Trump isn't as dumb or crazy as he looks. Maybe the meltdown of the past three weeks was no accident. Maybe it's all part of his new strategy to get the hell out of a race he never intended to see through to its end anyway. Because, unless he is just "crazy," the only explanation for the unusual ramping up, day after day, of one disgustingly reckless statement after another is that he's doing it consciously (or subconsciously) so that he'll have to bow out or blame "others" for forcing him out. Many now are sensing the end game here because they know Trump seriously doesn't want to do the actual job — and, most importantly, he cannot and WILL NOT suffer through being officially and legally declared a loser — LOSER! — on the night of November 8th.

Trust me, I've met the guy. Spent an afternoon with him. He would rather invite the Clintons AND the Obamas to his next wedding than have that scarlet letter ("L") branded on his forehead seconds after the last polls have closed on that night, the evening of the final episode of the permanently cancelled Donald Trump Shit-Show.

Postscript:
Don, if you're reading this, do it soon. Give your pathetic party a chance to pick up the pieces and nominate Ryan or Romney so they can be the ones to lose the White House, the Senate, the House and yes, praise Jesus and the Notorious RBG, the Supreme Court. Don't be too hard on yourself. You're only the logical conclusion to a party that has lived off the currency of racism and bigotry and fellating the 1 percent for decades, and now their Trump has come home to roost.

From Mike Moore in the Huff post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-moore/trump-self-sabotage_b_11545026.html

[The Iceman]

it could very well be true.  I've also read he purposely ran to break up the party and pave the way for hilary to win.  he definitely is not a conservative...or a republican
it's all a sham  - Hilary has it in the bag and the country is couped....

[Jell 0 Biafra]

so how about this theory:

Friends,

Donald Trump never actually wanted to be president of the United States. I know this for a fact. I'm not going to say how I know it. I'm not saying that Trump and I shared the same agent or lawyer or stylist or, if we did, that that would have anything to do with anything. And I'm certainly not saying that I ever overheard anything at those agencies or in the hallways of NBC or anywhere else. But there are certain people reading this right now, they know who they are, and they know that every word in the following paragraphs actually happened.

Trump was unhappy with his deal as host and star of his hit NBC show, "The Apprentice" (and "The Celebrity Apprentice"). Simply put, he wanted more money. He had floated the idea before of possibly running for president in the hopes that the attention from that would make his negotiating position stronger. But he knew, as the self-proclaimed king of the dealmakers, that saying you're going to do something is bupkus — DOING it is what makes the b**tards sit up and pay attention.

Trump had begun talking to other networks about moving his show. This was another way to get leverage — the fear of losing him to someone else — and when he "quietly" met with the head of one of those networks, and word got around, his hand was strengthened. He knew then that it was time to play his Big Card.

He decided to run for president.

Of course he wouldn't really have to RUN for president — just make the announcement, hold a few mega-rallies that would be packed with tens of thousands of fans, and wait for the first opinion polls to come in showing him — what else! — in first place! And then he would get whatever deal he wanted, worth millions more than what he was currently being paid.

So, on June 16 of last year, he rode down his golden escalator and opened his mouth. With no campaign staff, no 50-state campaign infrastructure — neither of which he needed because, remember, this wasn't going to be a real campaign — and with no prepared script, he went off the rails at his kick-off press conference, calling Mexicans "rapists" and "drug dealers" and pledging to build a wall to keep them all out. Jaws in the room were agape. His comments were so offensive, NBC, far from offering him a bigger paycheck, immediately fired him with this terse statement: "Due to the recent derogatory statements by Donald Trump regarding immigrants, NBCUniversal is ending its business relationship with Mr. Trump." NBC said it was also canceling the beauty pageants owned by Trump: Miss USA and Miss Universe. BOOM.

Trump was stunned. So much for the art of the deal. He never expected this, but he stuck to his plan anyway to increase his "value" in the eyes of the other networks by showing them how many millions of Americans wanted Him to be their Leader. He knew, of course (and the people he trusted also told him) that there was no way he was actually going to win many (if any) of the primaries, and he certainly would not become the Republican nominee, and NEVER would he EVER be the President of the United States. Of course not! Nor would he want to be! The job of being President is WORK and BORING and you have to live in the GHETTO of Washington, DC, in a SMALL 200-year old house that's damp and dreary and has only TWO floors! A "second floor" is not a penthouse! But none of this was a worry, as "Trump for President" was only a ruse that was going to last a few months.

And then something happened. And to be honest, if it happened to you, you might have reacted the same way. Trump, to his own surprise, ignited the country, especially among people who were the opposite of billionaires. He went straight to #1 in the polls of Republican voters. Up to 30,000 boisterous supporters started showing up to his rallies. TV ate it up. He became the first American celebrity to be able to book himself on any show he wanted to be on — and then NOT show up to the studio! From "Face the Nation" to "The Today Show" to Anderson Cooper, he was able to simply phone in and they'd put him on the air live. He could've been sitting on his golden toilet in Trump Tower for all we knew — and the media had no problem with any of that. In fact, CBS head Les Moonves famously admitted that Trump was very good for TV ratings and selling ads — music to the ears the NBC-spurned narcissist.

Trump fell in love with himself all over again, and he soon forgot his mission to get a good deal for a TV show. A TV show? Are you kldding — that's for losers like Chris Harrison, whoever that is (host of "The Bachelorette"). He was no longer king of the dealmakers — he was King of the World! His tiniest musings would be discussed and dissected everywhere by everybody for days, weeks, months! THAT never happened on "The Apprentice"! Host a TV show? He was the star of EVERY TV SHOW — and, soon, winning nearly every primary!

And then... you can see the moment it finally dawned on him... that "Oh shit!" revelation: "I'm actually going to be the Republican nominee — and my rich beautiful life is f#*@ing over!" It was the night he won the New Jersey primary. The headline on TIME.com was, "Donald Trump's Subdued Victory Speech After Winning New Jersey." Instead of it being one of his loud, brash speeches, it was downright depressing. No energy, no happiness, just the realization that now he was going to have to go through with this stunt that he started. It was no longer going to be performance art. He was going to have to go to work.

Soon, though, his karma caught up with him. Calling Mexicans "rapists" should have disqualified him on Day One (or for saying Obama wasn't born here, as he did in 2011). No, it took 13 months of racist, sexist, stupid comments before he finally undid himself with the trifecta of attacking the family of a slain soldier, ridiculing the Purple Heart and suggesting that the pro-gun crowd assassinate Hillary Clinton. By this past weekend, the look on his face said it all — "I hate this! I want my show back!" But it was too late. He was damaged goods, his brand beyond repair, a worldwide laughing stock — and worse, a soon-to-be loser.

But, let me throw out another theory, one that assumes that Trump isn't as dumb or crazy as he looks. Maybe the meltdown of the past three weeks was no accident. Maybe it's all part of his new strategy to get the hell out of a race he never intended to see through to its end anyway. Because, unless he is just "crazy," the only explanation for the unusual ramping up, day after day, of one disgustingly reckless statement after another is that he's doing it consciously (or subconsciously) so that he'll have to bow out or blame "others" for forcing him out. Many now are sensing the end game here because they know Trump seriously doesn't want to do the actual job — and, most importantly, he cannot and WILL NOT suffer through being officially and legally declared a loser — LOSER! — on the night of November 8th.

Trust me, I've met the guy. Spent an afternoon with him. He would rather invite the Clintons AND the Obamas to his next wedding than have that scarlet letter ("L") branded on his forehead seconds after the last polls have closed on that night, the evening of the final episode of the permanently cancelled Donald Trump Shit-Show.

Postscript:
Don, if you're reading this, do it soon. Give your pathetic party a chance to pick up the pieces and nominate Ryan or Romney so they can be the ones to lose the White House, the Senate, the House and yes, praise Jesus and the Notorious RBG, the Supreme Court. Don't be too hard on yourself. You're only the logical conclusion to a party that has lived off the currency of racism and bigotry and fellating the 1 percent for decades, and now their Trump has come home to roost.

From Mike Moore in the Huff post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-moore/trump-self-sabotage_b_11545026.html

What is it, 3 weeks since Moore wrote an article saying we'd better get used to saying President Trump, because he was sure to win?