Galway -v- Leitrim 15th June - A few quid for you, if you want

[Solo Run]

Haven't checked the other sites but Betfair has Galway 1/9 Leitrim 11/1; 18.5/1 the draw. Now I haven't checked the other bookies but you can assume something similar.

I bet quite a bit in all sports and do a lot of in-running, GAA, Soccer, Cricket, US Football, in general a nice way to make a few bob if you are happy with steady returns and try not to go for the kill, be happy with 25-40% of your stake. Now I'll be at this match and I won't be able to bet in-running (not inclined to hand over my account to anyone).

Anyway I guarantee Leitrim even if they lose this match will not remain at 11/1, at some stage they will hit 5 or 6/1 even if they are losing. Lay-off in proportion so you can sit back and give yourself a nice little 20% return for your stake on Galway, and enough to give yourself a nice little earner if Leitrim pull through or get the draw.


Lesser odds I presume with Paddy Power, but no liquidity limitations as per Betfair (other than your own funds, of course)

You can thank me later!

[SLIGONIAN]

Haven't checked the other sites but Betfair has Galway 1/9 Leitrim 11/1; 18.5/1 the draw. Now I haven't checked the other bookies but you can assume something similar.

I bet quite a bit in all sports and do a lot of in-running, GAA, Soccer, Cricket, US Football, in general a nice way to make a few bob if you are happy with steady returns and try not to go for the kill, be happy with 25-40% of your stake. Now I'll be at this match and I won't be able to bet in-running (not inclined to hand over my account to anyone).

Anyway I guarantee Leitrim even if they lose this match will not remain at 11/1, at some stage they will hit 5 or 6/1 even if they are losing. Lay-off in proportion so you can sit back and give yourself a nice little 20% return for your stake on Galway, and enough to give yourself a nice little earner if Leitrim pull through or get the draw.


Lesser odds I presume with Paddy Power, but no liquidity limitations as per Betfair (other than your own funds, of course)

You can thank me later!

Crazy odds and insulting to leitirim. Far better chance than that IMO.

[GaillimhIarthair]

Well Sligonian, this is your opportunity! You have been in bullish form these past few months so I guess you will be putting a few quid on a Leitrim / Sligo double 

[kevmy]

In fairness to Leitrim over the past few years they have always put up a fight and have a few handy footballers considering their size. They would beat everyone in Munster bar Cork and Kerry and would give a good few in Leinster a game. I'd see them being relatively close at some stage towards the end of the first half. And 11/1 odds in a two horse race is pretty ridiculous. 

[bombidal]

Anyway I guarantee Leitrim even if they lose this match will not remain at 11/1, at some stage they will hit 5 or 6/1 even if they are losing.

Guarantee !

Will you refund our money if we do this and your theory fails to materialise ?

[Solo Run]

The thing is Sligonian I don't find it insulting at all - when it comes to hard cash then its 'strictly' business. I personally rate Leitrim's chances of winning or getting a draw at about 5 or 6 /1, so if someone offers me 11/1 then I'm more than happy. You might lose most of these bets but one or two wins and you'd be well-up overall. For example, i backed both Sligo and Leitrim last year to win Connacht, only needed one to get to the final to be well-up. Which i was thanks to Sligo. Same again this year, might lose, but its still great great value, year on year (if Sligo and/or Leitrim have reasonable teams).

As I said its more about trading 'in-play'. I wouldn't back them at 6/1 because its about right and I don't believe I'd have an edge (I'd only back them for 'fun', kind of emotional gamble). However if I was sitting at home I'd have that laptop right beside me. By the way Paddy Power has Galway 1/14, Draw 14/1, Leitrim 8/1.

Well Bombidal, I have to retract, I can't of course guarantee, but I'll give you 5/1 that Leitrim hit 6/1 or below during that game. My fifty to a tenner of yours? Don't know where you live but anywhere between a line from Dublin to Manorhamilton and from Manorhamilton to Galway, I'll leave my 50 if you can name a place (bar, shop) and put in your tenner? Can't say fairer than that. Not a guarantee as I originally said, I accept that, but I'm more than willing.

[bombidal]

ok, I'll take that bet, how will we know if leitrim hit 6/1 in running. that can be manipulated on BF by both of us although I would keep laying leitrim and bigger odds to win a tenner !.

I suppose there are a few souls here that can keep and eye on both the BF odds and match and it should be fairly clear cut if leitrim hit 6/1 ( i.e if they are leading at half time or or leading by a couple of pts at any stage.

[Solo Run]

Ok, let me think about it. True about manipulating betfair, I could arrange to put a few quid on Leitrim and have them at 1.02 or something immediatley at the off. The fairest way would be by Paddy Power or an agreed set of criteria.

I'll come back to you, on this.

[SLIGONIAN]

The thing is Sligonian I don't find it insulting at all - when it comes to hard cash then its 'strictly' business. I personally rate Leitrim's chances of winning or getting a draw at about 5 or 6 /1, so if someone offers me 11/1 then I'm more than happy. You might lose most of these bets but one or two wins and you'd be well-up overall. For example, i backed both Sligo and Leitrim last year to win Connacht, only needed one to get to the final to be well-up. Which i was thanks to Sligo. Same again this year, might lose, but its still great great value, year on year (if Sligo and/or Leitrim have reasonable teams).

As I said its more about trading 'in-play'. I wouldn't back them at 6/1 because its about right and I don't believe I'd have an edge (I'd only back them for 'fun', kind of emotional gamble). However if I was sitting at home I'd have that laptop right beside me. By the way Paddy Power has Galway 1/14, Draw 14/1, Leitrim 8/1.

Well Bombidal, I have to retract, I can't of course guarantee, but I'll give you 5/1 that Leitrim hit 6/1 or below during that game. My fifty to a tenner of yours? Don't know where you live but anywhere between a line from Dublin to Manorhamilton and from Manorhamilton to Galway, I'll leave my 50 if you can name a place (bar, shop) and put in your tenner? Can't say fairer than that. Not a guarantee as I originally said, I accept that, but I'm more than willing.

I was talking strictly football, but your right its only business, made a few bob last yr myself from odds given on Sligo. Dont really bet much or understand how it works to be honest but would be tempted by leitrims odds. I see them running Galway fierce close.

[Rossfan]

Very little comment on this clash I notice. Is it because it's a foregone conclusion in everyone's opinion?
Dessie Dolan is issuing confident soundbites and talking about the Leitrim supporters being worth 4 or 5 points.
The ones up around Manorhamilton and Kinlough will want to be on the road mighty early to get through Claregalway and out to that bloody Salthill in time.
As for the game I can see Laythrum making a game of it for about 50 minutes but Galway should then pull away and probably win out by 5 or 6.

[Solo Run]

Very little comment on this clash I notice. Is it because it's a foregone conclusion in everyone's opinion?
Dessie Dolan is issuing confident soundbites and talking about the Leitrim supporters being worth 4 or 5 points.
The ones up around Manorhamilton and Kinlough will want to be on the road mighty early to get through Claregalway and out to that bloody Salthill in time.
As for the game I can see Laythrum making a game of it for about 50 minutes but Galway should then pull away and probably win out by 5 or 6.

Definitely not a foregone conclusion. 3-4 points between these teams in their meetings in 2005 and 2007. I believe Leitrim have strenghtened since then, have Galway?

Also, this Leitrim team are going for a Connacht title and fear no-one in Connacht, of course that doesn't mean they will win but it does mean that its game on from the start and not a case of 'we'll hang in there, and maybe, you never know of the day....'.

Its well documented that Leitrim have a good defence and will win plenty of ball around the park but the forwards and scoring is the problem. Well this year there are options with the arrival of Emlyn Mulligan on the scene. I'm not that sure about his free-taking ability as others are, however if he reduces the 3-4 easy frees Leitrim miss every game to 1-2, I'll be happy. That should put Leitrim's traditional 1-11 or 1-12 score up to 1-13 or 1-14 for a start . People give out about the over-reliance on Maxwell up-front and that when he's there we keep pumping balls into him often with little return (and we win when he's not playing!). Well, I wouldn't abandon this at all, I'd have him right up there and pump plenty into him and see can Galway cope (vary it with fast low ball into Brennan). If Galway can't handle this then we are seriously in business (we would have beaten Mayo in 2006 had we Maxwell on longer, they couldn't cope with him for the 15 mins he came on). If it doesn't work then bring him out for a Mulligan - Maxwell - O'Connor half-forward line and run at them.  I think what Im saying is that there is a big game in these forwards and let's hope its Sunday.

A word on Brennan. Drives Leitrim fans potty. Good when he gets it into his hands but thats the problem, has practically turned and made his run before the ball even arrives . Now if he can wait a slpit second and secure the ball first he will be dangerous and surely he might put away one of the couple of goal chances he creates every game. I think he might we are now up to 2-14 , of course if Galway don't handle Maxwell its 3-14 .

So in summary, and to answer the question its not a forgone a conclusion at all, I'd give Galway a chance if they
1) play to their potential,
2) get maybe 50+ supporters into the ground
3) Leitrim have an off-day.

[Smokin Joe]

The fairest way would be by Paddy Power or an agreed set of criteria.

Solo Run, Bombidal is Paddy Power.

[pairc sean]

pretty decent analysis of our chances Solo Run; I'm not sure enough of our supporters "get" Fred Brennan - his best asset is the runs he makes that create space all round him and the fact that invariably he will win first phase possession (managers see these things; supporters tend to miss them).

Rumours around the county that DD will go for a Maxwell/DOC 2 man full forward line; I hope not as O Connor needs to be played deeper; personally I'd take a chance on James Glancy and put him in a ffull forward line with Maxwell and Brennan with O'Connor,  Mulligan and Foley (him for variation and workrate as much as anything else). Alternatively, if we are worried about that Galway half forward line, there is a case for considering Barry Prior being named nominally at wing forward but playing as a sweeper behind a half back line of Reynolds, Mc Weeney and Shane Foley.

Ultimately though, I think his starting 15 will be the same as in New York

[Solo Run]

pretty decent analysis of our chances Solo Run; I'm not sure enough of our supporters "get" Fred Brennan - his best asset is the runs he makes that create space all round him and the fact that invariably he will win first phase possession (managers see these things; supporters tend to miss them).

Rumours around the county that DD will go for a Maxwell/DOC 2 man full forward line; I hope not as O Connor needs to be played deeper; personally I'd take a chance on James Glancy and put him in a ffull forward line with Maxwell and Brennan with O'Connor,  Mulligan and Foley (him for variation and workrate as much as anything else). Alternatively, if we are worried about that Galway half forward line, there is a case for considering Barry Prior being named nominally at wing forward but playing as a sweeper behind a half back line of Reynolds, Mc Weeney and Shane Foley.

Ultimately though, I think his starting 15 will be the same as in New York

I agree with O'Connor, Mulligan and Foley (for work-rate) HF line, Brennan and Maxwell FF line definitely, but I'd be inclined to give Fintan McBrien the start ahead of Glancy or Ciaran Duignan, but at least we've options this time.

Good point about Prior sweeping, good solution if things are going wrong and gets McWeeney on the pitch; but I'd like to see Galway making switches to cope with us first of all.

really hope we don't go 2-man FF line.

[the Deel Rover]

did you make money solo run ?