NFL Div. 4

[Fermanaghandsam]

Higgins is hardly fit to handle a club game in Fermanagh. He's quite young, fit and keen, and that's about it.
Really don't know who makes these decisions. They seem miles out of touch with the game and the circumstances sometimes.

Its a pity that one of Fermanagh's finest referee's, Phillip Owens, did not get this game.
He really is wasted referring at Junior level in Fermanagh

[Onlooker]

Lone Shark, Offaly had to play Antrim and Wicklow away, but ye played Tipperary in Tullamore, while Wicklow and Antrim both have to travel to Tipp.   There could be a twist in this Division yet and I would not agree that Wicklow and Offaly have a play off for the second promotion place just yet.

[AZOffaly]

God LS, I wouldn't be as negative as that in fairness, in relation to the fact that we are just going for second place. I agree that Wicklow is a huge game now, but I'm happy with a draw up there. Are we ahead on points differential? It could come down to how much we beat Kilkenny by.

[irunthev]

Anyone able to fill me in on the details of what went on in Tipp yesterday?

[Lone Shark]

Offaly, I think, are looking at top spot. If they beat Wicklow, they should chalk up a huge score against Kilkenny. I reckon they'll score a fair bit more than Antrim did. Offaly are currently ahead on score difference.

True, but ye'll probably score more than we did against London. Also ye have Waterford at home on the last week while we have a bye - meaning that ye'll have a set target to chase against a team who'll more than likely be playing a dead rubber.

Not that it matters - I can't see any material difference between finishing first and second. Second and third on the other hand are a world away from each other.

[Onlooker]

Anyone able to fill me in on the details of what went on in Tipp yesterday?

I suppose the score line tells it all, but London actually started quite well and scored the first 2 points to lead by that margin after about 12 minutes.  Once Tipp got a couple of scores on the board they settled down and were well on top to half time and led 1-7 to 0-2 after playing against a light breeze.  The goal came from a penalty, but it was a certain goal anyway if the London goalkeeper had not pulled down the forward (yellow card).   Tipp were completely on top in the second half and scored 16 points (13 from play).  The London goalkeeper, Evan Byrne, who is from Tipperary made a number of good saves, but Tipp were getting their points so easily that they did not really press that much for goals in the second half and were content to keep the scoreboard ticking over.   Barry Grogan scored 1-9 for Tipp (a goal from a penalty, 6 points from frees and 3 points from play).

[Lone Shark]

God LS, I wouldn't be as negative as that in fairness, in relation to the fact that we are just going for second place. I agree that Wicklow is a huge game now, but I'm happy with a draw up there. Are we ahead on points differential? It could come down to how much we beat Kilkenny by.

I don't think it's being negative - just for the reasons in the post above, I think our score difference will be eroded and I don't see Antrim dropping any more points.

All this talk of Tipperary is all very well, but their narrow home win over Clare doesn't look like great form now, while beating London and Kilkenny is hardly big news. I think we just made them look better than they were and I expect both Antrim and Wicklow to beat them with a fair bit to spare.

[AZOffaly]

God LS, I wouldn't be as negative as that in fairness, in relation to the fact that we are just going for second place. I agree that Wicklow is a huge game now, but I'm happy with a draw up there. Are we ahead on points differential? It could come down to how much we beat Kilkenny by.

I don't think it's being negative - just for the reasons in the post above, I think our score difference will be eroded and I don't see Antrim dropping any more points.

All this talk of Tipperary is all very well, but their narrow home win over Clare doesn't look like great form now, while beating London and Kilkenny is hardly big news. I think we just made them look better than they were and I expect both Antrim and Wicklow to beat them with a fair bit to spare.

Well you've more or less conceded the top spot to Antrim on the basis of the draw on Sunday night. I'd say Offaly would be happier than Antrim with that result. If we get a win in Aughrim (big If), then I would expect us to be very close to winning the division. Where do Antrim play Tipp and Waterford?

Having said that, I accept that there's shag all difference between first and second, and the game in Aughrim will probably determine the team to go up with Antrim, in whatever order, notwithstanding Tipp's impressive enough start.

Current Table
Offaly   Played 4, Diff + 46, Points 7
Antrim  Played 4, Diff + 43, Points 7
Tipperary Played 4 Diff +45, Points 6
Wicklow Played 3 Diff + 36 Points 4
Waterford Played 3 Diff + 7 Points 4
Carlow Played 3 Diff -8 Points 4
Clare Played 4 Diff -27 Points 0
London Played 3 Diff -51 Points 0
Kilkenny Played 4 Diff -91 Points 0


These are the fixtures left. (Offaly have 3 points better than Antrim, 1 point better than Tipp, and 10 points better than Wicklow). For the gas, I've put in my predictions to see what the table will be like at the end, with the help of God

15th/16th March
Antrim v Carlow (Antrim +10)
Kilkenny v Clare (Clare +15)
Wicklow v Offaly (Offaly + 4) (Touch wood)
Waterford v London (Waterford + 10)
Tipperary Bye.

That would leave it
Antrim  Played 5, Diff + 53, Points 9
Offaly   Played 5, Diff + 50, Points 9
Tipperary Played 4 Diff +45, Points 6
Waterford Played 4 Diff + 17 Points 6
Wicklow Played 4 Diff + 32 Points 4
Carlow Played 4 Diff -18 Points 4
Clare Played 5 Diff -12 Points 2
London Played 4 Diff -61 Points 0
Kilkenny Played 5 Diff -106 Points 0


29th/30th March
Carlow v Tipperary (Tipp + 5)
Offaly v Waterford (Offaly + 10)
London v Antrim (Antrim + 15)
Clare v Wicklow (Wicklow + 8 )
Kilkenny Bye

That would leave it
Antrim  Played 6, Diff + 68, Points 11
Offaly   Played 6, Diff + 60, Points 11
Tipperary Played 5 Diff +50, Points 8
Wicklow Played 5 Diff + 40 Points 6
Waterford Played 5 Diff + 7 Points 6
Carlow Played 5 Diff -23 Points 4
Clare Played 6 Diff -20 Points 2
London Played 5 Diff -76 Points 0
Kilkenny Played 5 Diff -106 Points 0


6th April
Tipperary v Antrim (Antrim +3)
Carlow v Waterford (Carlow +2)
Offaly v Kilkenny (Offaly + 25)
London v Wicklow (Wicklow +10)
Clare Bye

That would leave it
Offaly   Played 7, Diff + 85, Points 13
Antrim  Played 7, Diff + 71, Points 13
Wicklow Played 6 Diff + 50 Points 8
Tipperary Played 6, Diff +47, Points 8
Waterford Played 6 Diff + 5 Points 6
Carlow Played 6 Diff -21 Points 6
Clare Played 6 Diff -20 Points 2
London Played 6 Diff -86 Points 0
Kilkenny Played 6 Diff -131 Points 0

13th April
Waterford v Tipperary (tipperary + 7)
Kilkenny v London (London + 6)
Wicklow v Carlow (Wicklow + 5)
Clare v Offaly (Offaly + 9)
Antrim Bye

That makes it
Offaly   Played 8, Diff + 94, Points 15
Antrim  Played 7, Diff + 71, Points 13
Wicklow Played 7 Diff + 55 Points 10
Tipperary Played 7, Diff +54, Points 10
Waterford Played 7 Diff  -2 Points 6
Carlow Played 7 Diff -26 Points 6
Clare Played 7 Diff -29 Points 2
London Played 7 Diff -80 Points 2
Kilkenny Played 7 Diff -137 Points 0

Then the last week
Tipperary v Wicklow (Wicklow +2)
Carlow v Kilkenny (Carlow + 10)
Antrim v Waterford (Antrim + 12)
London v Clare (Clare +4)
Offaly Bye.

Leaving the final table
Offaly   Played 8, Diff + 94, Points 15
Antrim  Played 8, Diff + 83, Points 15
Wicklow Played 8 Diff + 57 Points 12
Tipperary Played 8, Diff +52, Points 10
Waterford Played 8 Diff  -14 Points 6
Carlow Played 8 Diff -16 Points 8
Clare Played 8 Diff -25 Points 4
London Played 8 Diff -84 Points 2
Kilkenny Played 8 Diff -147 Points 0

Come on Offaly

[irunthev]

Thanks Onlooker

[Lone Shark]

Well you've more or less conceded the top spot to Antrim on the basis of the draw on Sunday night. I'd say Offaly would be happier than Antrim with that result. If we get a win in Aughrim (big If), then I would expect us to be very close to winning the division. Where do Antrim play Tipp and Waterford?

I haven't conceded it, but I think that their win in Aughrim is huge, and even if we do match that, for the reasons I laid out above ( how the fixtures fall) I full expect Antrim to be able to rack up the points they need. Iif we go into the Kilkenny match needing a win of any sort to guarantee promotion, but needing to win by 40 to top the division, as is very possibly going to be the case, I'd like to think that we wouldn't go out of our way to humiliate them by as much as possible. I abhor this system that encourages teams to pummel London and Kilkenny by as much as possible, and since promotion is what matters rather than winning the group, if we just need a win of any kind I'd definitely field a much weakened side against the Cats.

Antrim are away to Tipp and at home to Waterford. Funnily enough I still think that there is feck all between those two teams and Waterford could yet be just as much of a fly in the ointment as Tipperary are.

[AZOffaly]

Check my calculations above. Which ones do you think I am way out in?

[Lone Shark]

I made one mistake, I though our last game was Kilkenny, so I can see why we might have to hammer them after all - which is a pity.

It's basically down to the game in Aughrim really - there's no way I'd have us winning by four though - we'll scrape home if anything at all I'd say.

[AZOffaly]

4 is scrapey enough What majorly worries me is that at the start of the league I'd have said there is no way we would win all 4 games in Ennis, Carlow, Belfast and Aughrim. I thought 6 points from 8 would be a good haul. Now that we've dropped a point in Casement, can we finish with 7 out of 8, which would be above my expectations, or 5, which would probably see us staying in Division 4 next year?

Gulp.

[Lone Shark]

4 is scrapey enough What majorly worries me is that at the start of the league I'd have said there is no way we would win all 4 games in Ennis, Carlow, Belfast and Aughrim. I thought 6 points from 8 would be a good haul. Now that we've dropped a point in Casement, can we finish with 7 out of 8, which would be above my expectations, or 5, which would probably see us staying in Division 4 next year?

Gulp.

I think the problem is that some teams were a lot weaker than we expected, which means that even though we got a good win down in Carlow, it's now looking very much like none of the top three teams in the division will drop any points to anyone except each other. Of course the problem then is that you must win at least one game in the "mini" league between those three - Antim have, and neither us nor wicklow have, so it's down to the game between OY and WW. At the start of the year you would have presumed that Clare, Carlow and maybe even Tipp would have taken some points off the other teams - now it looks like that won't happen, thus eliminating the margin for error.

[AZOffaly]

4 is scrapey enough What majorly worries me is that at the start of the league I'd have said there is no way we would win all 4 games in Ennis, Carlow, Belfast and Aughrim. I thought 6 points from 8 would be a good haul. Now that we've dropped a point in Casement, can we finish with 7 out of 8, which would be above my expectations, or 5, which would probably see us staying in Division 4 next year?

Gulp.

I think the problem is that some teams were a lot weaker than we expected, which means that even though we got a good win down in Carlow, it's now looking very much like none of the top three teams in the division will drop any points to anyone except each other. Of course the problem then is that you must win at least one game in the "mini" league between those three - Antim have, and neither us nor wicklow have, so it's down to the game between OY and WW. At the start of the year you would have presumed that Clare, Carlow and maybe even Tipp would have taken some points off the other teams - now it looks like that won't happen, thus eliminating the margin for error.

Hence the Gulp.