is now a good time to buy shares?

[orangeman]

I'm ready to buy £1000 worth the shares in HBOS but it's the takeover thingie thats scaring me as i'm afraid of my shares being rid. There is no doubt that in 12 - 18 months when the mortages take off again that the HBOS shares will soar again but i wish this takeover shit would be resolved first before i buy...

Hold on then - buy on the up !

[nifan]

There is no doubt

Im afraid thats not true.
If there was no doubt the share price would be rising spectacularly already on the strength of it.
There is a good chance, but nothing is guaranteed in this game.

[Canalman]

Keep your money in your pockets. Cash is God at the moment and if the experiences in Dublin at the moment with jobs being lost hand over fist is indicative of the country as a whole there imo is alot worse to come.

Save your money and imo buy a nice holiday home in Donegal/Kerry etc late next year as they will be the first properties to go on the cheap as people need the CASH.

[gerrykeegan]

 Paddy Power offers odds on banks at 60c

Tuesday, 18th November 2008 02.09pm



Bookmaker Paddy Power is offering odds of 5/6 on that the share price of at least one of Ireland's banks will drop below 60c before the end of the year.

The offer compares after Bank of Ireland shares plummeted to 83 cent yesterday, a level not seen since the early 90s.

And today Anglo Irish Bank's shares dropped this morning to 92c.

The bookie said today that it was offering just 5/6 that any of the four quoted banks (Anglo, BoI, Irish Life and Permanent and AIB) plummet to a new low of below 60c before year end.

Paddy Power said: "Only last week we were betting on which of the top four would fall below 1 euro first - Bank of Ireland were 8/11 favourites - and now the goal posts have moved to below 60c.

"How low they go will surely depend on market confidence and the possibility of Government intervention."

[the Deel Rover]

Paddy Power offers odds on banks at 60c

Tuesday, 18th November 2008 02.09pm



Bookmaker Paddy Power is offering odds of 5/6 on that the share price of at least one of Ireland's banks will drop below 60c before the end of the year.

The offer compares after Bank of Ireland shares plummeted to 83 cent yesterday, a level not seen since the early 90s.

And today Anglo Irish Bank's shares dropped this morning to 92c.

The bookie said today that it was offering just 5/6 that any of the four quoted banks (Anglo, BoI, Irish Life and Permanent and AIB) plummet to a new low of below 60c before year end.

Paddy Power said: "Only last week we were betting on which of the top four would fall below 1 euro first - Bank of Ireland were 8/11 favourites - and now the goal posts have moved to below 60c.

"How low they go will surely depend on market confidence and the possibility of Government intervention."

Looks like paddy will be paying out on that bet anglo shares dropped to .58 cent today

[muppet]

Closed at 48c.

This government should be tarred and feathered.

[Bogball XV]

Closed at 48c.

This government should be tarred and feathered.

Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage?  The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.

[muppet]

Closed at 48c.

This government should be tarred and feathered.

Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage?  The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.

Why? Because the dogs on the street knew months ago that our banks were in serious trouble. Last september, when I suggested that the banking industry in this country would never be the same again, our banks were leveraged 40 times.

Now it is 100 times. The 2 Brians have watched a crisis develop into a catastrophe, and still they do nothing.

[the Deel Rover]

anglo shares down to .32 cents today what price did quinn buy them at ?

[orangeman]

Closed at 48c.

This government should be tarred and feathered.

Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage?  The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.

Why? Because the dogs on the street knew months ago that our banks were in serious trouble. Last september, when I suggested that the banking industry in this country would never be the same again, our banks were leveraged 40 times.

Now it is 100 times. The 2 Brians have watched a crisis develop into a catastrophe, and still they do nothing.

[/b]

Maybe this is a deliberate act on their part ? Maybe they want to force them into the arms of one of the bigger boys ?

What do you think they should have done or should do ?

[muppet]

Closed at 48c.

This government should be tarred and feathered.

Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage?  The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.

Why? Because the dogs on the street knew months ago that our banks were in serious trouble. Last september, when I suggested that the banking industry in this country would never be the same again, our banks were leveraged 40 times.

Now it is 100 times. The 2 Brians have watched a crisis develop into a catastrophe, and still they do nothing.

[/b]

Maybe this is a deliberate act on their part ? Maybe they want to force them into the arms of one of the bigger boys ?

What do you think they should have done or should do ?

The bigger boys are now miniature versions of themselves. If that was the plan it wasn't a very good one.

3 months of in decision have seen the value of the Irish banks wiped out.

AIB    €1,743,708,911
Anglo  €286,501,970
BOI    €883,690,491
IL&P  €420,709,174

Total Value  €3,334,610,546
Total exposure €400,000,000,000

Now leveraged 120 times.

They should have re-capitalised months ago. However there is the small matter of them having to raise the money to do so. Expect a tax hike in Jan/Feb.

BTW I reckon the UK policy of tax cuts is to protect the currency, not the economy. UK taxpayers will suffer in the long run, we will get the pain in the shorter term.

Those bankers have a lot to answer for and as Bogball says should fall on their swords.

While I'm on about uber-capitalists greedy deeds:

I can't believe the Government is considering selling Aer Lingus to O'Leary.
Cash in bank    €1.3Billion
Heathrow slots  €500 Million
42 Aircraft min   €400 Million
Debt                   €0

Total break up value €2.2 Billion

Our Government are considering selling 25% for €145 Million.

Tarred and feathered.

[muppet]

Time running out for refinancing of banks

Time running out for refinancing of banks
By Brian O'Mahony

IT looks increasingly likely that a resolution of the banking crisis will drag on into the new year.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan cannot have been too impressed when Irish Life & Permanent (IL&P) boss Denis Casey and the bank's chairwoman, Gillian Bowler, arrived with a top lawyer in tow last Friday week for his second round of talks with the banks.

It was reported that Mr Casey said the bank would sue if Mr Lenihan tried to force it into a merger.

That wasn't quite the case, but IL&P made the point that it, and not the country's finance minister, will be the architect its own destiny, in what most expect will still result in some restructuring.

How that process will pan out is anyone's guess but it looks likely that the days of Anglo Irish Bank are numbered.

It is clear from the continuing erosion of its share price since it published results last week that investors and analysts have lost confidence in the bank.

In Dublin yesterday AIB, the bank thought likeliest to survive on its own after the banks have been reconfigured, saw its share value dip below €2 for the first time since this crisis took hold.

It is yet another reminder that investors remain deeply concerned about the future status of the Irish banking sector.

The most immediate issue facing the banks sector is refinancing.

As the process drags on, fears are growing that some of the private equity houses like JC Flowers could walk if the talks stall.

It left Northern Rock in the lurch in Britain and the various investors could do the same here.

These guys don't hang around said one observer.

They know that JC Flowers and others walked away from the British market leaving Northern Rock stranded as it dallied over what re-funding option to take.

Uncertainty still persists about how the refunding of the banks will pan out.

One report this week says the State will cozy up to the private equity firms and that a deal will be done that could see a 50% dilution in Bank of Ireland and Anglo shares, if the latter survives as a separate entity.

It is generally agreed the State will become a holder of shares in the banks if this deal is to go ahead, the only question now is how much funding they will have to commit and for how long.

Most of the private equity people tend to stick around for three to four years, before cashing in holdings, based on their previous track records.

Even with the funding issue stalled the banks are still under pressure.

If they are to borrow money over three to five years, that takes them beyond the state guarantee, which runs to end September 2010.

The banks will have little choice but to square up to this problem pretty soon if they are to avoid doing long-term damage to the Irish financial system and to the economy in general.

In an analysis this week, McEvoy & Associates raised the spectre of the overseas equity groups getting frustrated with the lack of progress with the capital refinancing of the banks.

They could leave the Irish banks, whose values have been utterly decimated by the collapse in the economy and the crippling impact of the global credit crunch, to struggle on without the badly needed capital.

In that case the pressure on the Government and the Irish-owned funds, represented by IAIM, interested in supporting the system could be enormous.

Concerns are growing that some of the top private equity houses will not hang around indefinitely, if the ongoing talks fail to produce some investment formula.

The danger exists that the Government's options on the banking crisis "are closing down fast", McAvoy said.

The big worry is if any of the Irish banks fail, the level of Government borrowing could soar.

This has not been lost on the global sovereign debt markets and the potential threat to the cost of funding going forward is another emerging threat.

In essence McAvoy fears the re-capitalisation dilemma is moving in such a way that it has the potential to do damage to the national finances as well as the economy at this stage.

I cant believe the arrogance of IL&P. Lenihan should pull the Government guarantee and see how they get on.

[Niall Quinn]

seriously as someone who spent 10 years in investment banking there is great upside in bank of ire and aib at the minute. they may not have bottomed out yet but this time next year i'll eat my hat if there not up 25% from now. there trading at 7-8 times earnings which is nuts. if ye have spare cash have a look..

Did you ever eat that hat magickingdom?!

[the Deel Rover]

Was reading yesterday that sean quinns €1 billion investment in Anglo now worth only €40 million  thats some loss in just over 1 year

[the Deel Rover]

Company Price Change Company Price Change

ALLIED IRISH BKS 1.65  -0.11 (-6.25%) 
ANGLO IRISH BANK 0.28  -0.04 (-12.50%)
BANK OF IRELAND  0.67  -0.10 (-12.50%) 
IRISH LIFE & PER 1.50  0.03 (1.97%)


Bank of ireland taking a hammering as well