Sam Maguire 2024 Group 1 - Galway, Armagh, Derry, Westmeath

[tonto1888]

Armagh's post-match celebrations reminded me of the time Rangers won the Scottish League after the 3-3 draw with Celtic back in April.

How dare they celebrate winning the group. Terrible

[David McKeown]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

[tonto1888]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

I think we left a few points behind in the first half. Snatched at shots we would t normally do. Some bad misses. They go over and we probably go in level or 1/2 ahead at the break. Does that change the narrative?

[Manning18]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

I think we left a few points behind in the first half. Snatched at shots we would t normally do. Some bad misses. They go over and we probably go in level or 1/2 ahead at the break. Does that change the narrative?

Probably but then you'd have to factor in all Galway's misses in the second half, simple fisted points and easy ones dropped short missed

I thought the fare was even enough in the first half and that Galway were dominant enough to put two games away for the first 15-20 mins of the second but didn't and can only blame themselves.

Ultimately the game swung on the two kickouts. That narrative is simplistic but doesn't make it any less correct. It was the difference between a draw and a Galway victory

[armaghniac]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

I think we left a few points behind in the first half. Snatched at shots we would t normally do. Some bad misses. They go over and we probably go in level or 1/2 ahead at the break. Does that change the narrative?

The difference in shooting quality yesterday compared to the Ulster final was notable. Yes, Armagh were against a well organised team yesterday but so too were they in Clones.

[David McKeown]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

I think we left a few points behind in the first half. Snatched at shots we would t normally do. Some bad misses. They go over and we probably go in level or 1/2 ahead at the break. Does that change the narrative?

Probably but then you'd have to factor in all Galway's misses in the second half, simple fisted points and easy ones dropped short missed

I thought the fare was even enough in the first half and that Galway were dominant enough to put two games away for the first 15-20 mins of the second but didn't and can only blame themselves.

Ultimately the game swung on the two kickouts. That narrative is simplistic but doesn't make it any less correct. It was the difference between a draw and a Galway victory

I definitely didn't think Galway were dominant in the second half at all just shows how different people interpret the game.  As for the game turning on a kick out I am not sure that was any more impactful on the result than the referee of Armagh's poor shooting or the referees decision making. 

Galway turned over an Armagh free kick in a very similar way and ended up with a point off it in the first half albeit after much ball retention.

I think it was a strange game all round and could have gone anyway

[Armamike]

Maybe an oversimplification, but for me Galway were very good at keeping the ball which meant Armagh didn't get their hands on it enough.  For Armagh to get more into the game they needed to be a bit bolder and more intense in closing Galway down and try to win more turnovers. Let a good side like Galway dictate possession and they'll keep the scoreboard ticking over.  Each phase of possession normally ended in a score for Galway.  I hate us playing Galway because I know they're going to be hard to break down and hard to get the ball off.  Not easy to play against at all.

[Manning18]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

I think we left a few points behind in the first half. Snatched at shots we would t normally do. Some bad misses. They go over and we probably go in level or 1/2 ahead at the break. Does that change the narrative?

Probably but then you'd have to factor in all Galway's misses in the second half, simple fisted points and easy ones dropped short missed

I thought the fare was even enough in the first half and that Galway were dominant enough to put two games away for the first 15-20 mins of the second but didn't and can only blame themselves.

Ultimately the game swung on the two kickouts. That narrative is simplistic but doesn't make it any less correct. It was the difference between a draw and a Galway victory

I definitely didn't think Galway were dominant in the second half at all just shows how different people interpret the game.  As for the game turning on a kick out I am not sure that was any more impactful on the result than the referee of Armagh's poor shooting or the referees decision making. 

Galway turned over an Armagh free kick in a very similar way and ended up with a point off it in the first half albeit after much ball retention.

I think it was a strange game all round and could have gone anyway

If not me so then maybe a fully neutral voice and somewhat qualified (past backroom analysis man for multiple high level teams)

https://x.com/somearagaa/status/1802350857981231219?t=loSHH52xcFLYcXz7QiwL1A&s=19

Videos can get a bit convoluted but still well worth a watch

It's all a moot point in anycase. Armagh got the draw they needed and probably won't even have to improve on that somewhat down performance to beat the likely opposition they'll face in a QF. A semi with Dub or Kerry will obviously be a different story

[David McKeown]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

I think we left a few points behind in the first half. Snatched at shots we would t normally do. Some bad misses. They go over and we probably go in level or 1/2 ahead at the break. Does that change the narrative?

Probably but then you'd have to factor in all Galway's misses in the second half, simple fisted points and easy ones dropped short missed

I thought the fare was even enough in the first half and that Galway were dominant enough to put two games away for the first 15-20 mins of the second but didn't and can only blame themselves.

Ultimately the game swung on the two kickouts. That narrative is simplistic but doesn't make it any less correct. It was the difference between a draw and a Galway victory

I definitely didn't think Galway were dominant in the second half at all just shows how different people interpret the game.  As for the game turning on a kick out I am not sure that was any more impactful on the result than the referee of Armagh's poor shooting or the referees decision making. 

Galway turned over an Armagh free kick in a very similar way and ended up with a point off it in the first half albeit after much ball retention.

I think it was a strange game all round and could have gone anyway

If not me so then maybe a fully neutral voice and somewhat qualified (past backroom analysis man for multiple high level teams)

https://x.com/somearagaa/status/1802350857981231219?t=loSHH52xcFLYcXz7QiwL1A&s=19

Videos can get a bit convoluted but still well worth a watch

It's all a moot point in anycase. Armagh got the draw they needed and probably won't even have to improve on that somewhat down performance to beat the likely opposition they'll face in a QF. A semi with Dub or Kerry will obviously be a different story

Very interesting thanks. I do something similar to this as part of my coaching in intermediate soccer so I find this fascinating.

It's only useful to a degree mind because of the impact subjective refereeing decisions can have on the objective assessments. E.G a 50/50 call on a penalty can result in an increase or decrease of almost 20% on expected scores. The video seems to suggest that it's a case of post hoc ergo proctor hoc and seems to ignore the impact of these extraneous factors.

I found it interesting too that they suggested Galway were committing footballing suicide when they played and scored through the Dee whilst RTE actually praised Galway for their ability to do that.

[Never beat the deeler]

If not me so then maybe a fully neutral voice and somewhat qualified (past backroom analysis man for multiple high level teams)

https://x.com/somearagaa/status/1802350857981231219?t=loSHH52xcFLYcXz7QiwL1A&s=19

Videos can get a bit convoluted but still well worth a watch

It's all a moot point in anycase. Armagh got the draw they needed and probably won't even have to improve on that somewhat down performance to beat the likely opposition they'll face in a QF. A semi with Dub or Kerry will obviously be a different story

That is interesting, and maybe someone with a better knowledge of xscores can tell me.
The stats show that Armagh and Galway each had an identical conversion rate of 54%, but Galway's expected score was 15.7 versus Armagh's 15.0. As far as I can tell, that is because the expected score per shot for Galway was lower at 54% than Armagh's 62% (so Galway did better relative to their expected conversion rate)

Is this because of position the Galway players were shooting from was slightly poorer than the position of the Armagh chances? Or is this stat a historic shot conversion rate for each team? I think the former, but not 100% sure

[Mario]

If not me so then maybe a fully neutral voice and somewhat qualified (past backroom analysis man for multiple high level teams)

https://x.com/somearagaa/status/1802350857981231219?t=loSHH52xcFLYcXz7QiwL1A&s=19

Videos can get a bit convoluted but still well worth a watch

It's all a moot point in anycase. Armagh got the draw they needed and probably won't even have to improve on that somewhat down performance to beat the likely opposition they'll face in a QF. A semi with Dub or Kerry will obviously be a different story

That is interesting, and maybe someone with a better knowledge of xscores can tell me.
The stats show that Armagh and Galway each had an identical conversion rate of 54%, but Galway's expected score was 15.7 versus Armagh's 15.0. As far as I can tell, that is because the expected score per shot for Galway was lower at 54% than Armagh's 62% (so Galway did better relative to their expected conversion rate)

Is this because of position the Galway players were shooting from was slightly poorer than the position of the Armagh chances? Or is this stat a historic shot conversion rate for each team? I think the former, but not 100% sure

Yes the former.

If not me so then maybe a fully neutral voice and somewhat qualified (past backroom analysis man for multiple high level teams)

https://x.com/somearagaa/status/1802350857981231219?t=loSHH52xcFLYcXz7QiwL1A&s=19

Videos can get a bit convoluted but still well worth a watch

It's all a moot point in anycase. Armagh got the draw they needed and probably won't even have to improve on that somewhat down performance to beat the likely opposition they'll face in a QF. A semi with Dub or Kerry will obviously be a different story

That is interesting, and maybe someone with a better knowledge of xscores can tell me.
The stats show that Armagh and Galway each had an identical conversion rate of 54%, but Galway's expected score was 15.7 versus Armagh's 15.0. As far as I can tell, that is because the expected score per shot for Galway was lower at 54% than Armagh's 62% (so Galway did better relative to their expected conversion rate)

Is this because of position the Galway players were shooting from was slightly poorer than the position of the Armagh chances? Or is this stat a historic shot conversion rate for each team? I think the former, but not 100% sure

The former. He explains it a bit here https://x.com/TsuDhoNim/status/1792473306957812003?t=zI6IwurCxLclh3gbTA3-0g&s=19

[tonto1888]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

I think we left a few points behind in the first half. Snatched at shots we would t normally do. Some bad misses. They go over and we probably go in level or 1/2 ahead at the break. Does that change the narrative?

Probably but then you'd have to factor in all Galway's misses in the second half, simple fisted points and easy ones dropped short missed

I thought the fare was even enough in the first half and that Galway were dominant enough to put two games away for the first 15-20 mins of the second but didn't and can only blame themselves.

Ultimately the game swung on the two kickouts. That narrative is simplistic but doesn't make it any less correct. It was the difference between a draw and a Galway victory

Fully agree. Galway dropped a shocking amount short also but I'm thinking from an Armagh perspective and the first half only given the narrative is we were brutal. Which I don't necessarily disagree with to be honest. However, we did leave a few behind us

[Armagh18]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

I think we left a few points behind in the first half. Snatched at shots we would t normally do. Some bad misses. They go over and we probably go in level or 1/2 ahead at the break. Does that change the narrative?

Absolutely and I can remember thinking at the time we'd regret those poor wides when we had the wind, McElroys in particular was a handy chance enough and there were definitely more. I felt at the time we sat off Galway too much who to credit them are very good at keeping the ball and creating those shooting opportunities, they were almost always able to get a shot off or draw a free in the first half. Maybe if we'd pushed out too much we'd have been open for goal chances, who knows 

[statto]

I dont know what to think about yesterdays games I think I have seen the whole range of interpretations.

Some feel Galway dominated, were brilliant and should have won by 5 or 6

Some feel Armagh were poor but were always competitive (level after 30 minutes) got screwed over by the referee etc

Some thought the system let Armagh down badly whilst others felt it allowed them not to panic, trust the system and claw back into the game.

Some thought Soupy was poor whilst I thought he was excellent.

Obviously all the contradictory opinions cant be correct.

For what its worth I thought Armagh were listless and possibly over trained in the first half but were much improved second half.  I thought Galway were ok but lacked a real cutting edge probably due to injuries.  I thought Hurson was very poor and thought the result was a fair enough one.  I thought at times they were to systemic to their own detriment (the minutes before the Galway 12 went off bring a prime example)

I think both teams have lots of room to improve and will cause trouble for other teams but wont win Sam.  Hope I am wrong

I think we left a few points behind in the first half. Snatched at shots we would t normally do. Some bad misses. They go over and we probably go in level or 1/2 ahead at the break. Does that change the narrative?

Absolutely and I can remember thinking at the time we'd regret those poor wides when we had the wind, McElroys in particular was a handy chance enough and there were definitely more. I felt at the time we sat off Galway too much who to credit them are very good at keeping the ball and creating those shooting opportunities, they were almost always able to get a shot off or draw a free in the first half. Maybe if we'd pushed out too much we'd have been open for goal chances, who knows 

Crealey and Kelly also had wides that you would expect them to get.  Armagh were not as aggressive on the kickouts in first half with the wind advantage and this allowed Galway to play the game on their terms.  When they went aggressively after Gleeson in second half they got their rewards. 

I thought Armagh were defensively poor in the tackle in the first half and giving away frees not defending the dee well gave Galway a foothold in the game. 

I would like to see Oisin O'Neill get more than 7 minutes the next day really tried to control the game when came on and nine times out of ten makes the right decision on the ball. 

[Applesisapples]

I couldn't help but notice the difference between the two refs on Sunday. Hudson penalised Armagh in particular for crowding out defenders whilst McNally I think it was allowed both Dublin and Mayo away with it.