Crime Stats - Is society actually getting safer?

[AZOffaly]

I thought I'd take this to a new thread, as I didn't want to sidetrack a thread about a video in a church or something like that. Anyway, Hardy made a point about the fact that a more secular society is not more dangerous or immoral than a religiously controlled society. Obviously it would take a lot of analysis to make that sort of cause and effect judgment, but it did spark a question about crime rates in recent times. The news and the newspapers seem to tell us we are on the verge of Armageddon, but are we? To try and baseline the discussion, I've gone to the CSO, and pulled some of their quick tables on reported crime for the last 10 years. It was some interesting reading. I was particularly interested in the Public Order offences. From the table below, which is  the one in the link, it appears as if we had a steady growth in this sort of offence until 2009ish, and has been a more or less steady fall since then. To me, I'm wondering has that anything to do with people not having money to spend on alcohol and drugs, as much as some sort of collective 'seeing of the light'. But I'd be interested what other people think. Is crime reporting largely a sensationalist exercise designed to make people buy papers and be scandalised, or is there something really bad going on? Or are our Gardai getting on top of things? Or are people just too broke to get drunk and fight now? Apologies for the formatting.

Public order and other social code offences

http://www.cso.ie/Quicktables/GetQuickTables.aspx?FileName=cja01c18.asp&TableName=Public+order+and+other+social+code+offences&StatisticalProduct=DB_CJ

                                                                           2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013
13 Public order and other social code offences   47789   55482   56616   60583   61820   57351   54941   49060   43862   36379
131 Disorderly conduct                                         38231   42433   47236   51197   53419   49469   47346   42137   37359   30789
132 Trespass offences                                            1565     1842   2355   3002   3675   3793   3786   3580   3335   2947
133 Liquor licensing offences                                    6687     9684   5708   5036   3844   3285   2826   2341   1919   1364
134 Prostitution offences                                              219        84   107             109   136               93   205             228   148           120
135 Regulated betting/money,                                   317      373   417             538   415             452   429             299   294           325
136 Social code offences (n.e.c.)                              770    1066   793             701   331             259   349             475   807           834

[armaghniac]

I thought I'd take this to a new thread, as I didn't want to sidetrack a thread about a video in a church or something like that.

A noble attitude to non side tracking.

I was chatting with some Gardai who work with these stats, there view was that high boom time alcohol consumption fuelled a whole series of anti social behaviour, from the relatively trivial to the serious and the decline in this drinking has led to a consequent reduction in recent years.

[AZOffaly]

Some other interesting stats

Homicide related - Murder seems steady enough, but I'd imagine largely related to the drug trade. We have on average about a murder a week. We seem to have made inroads in Dangerous Driving fatalities compared to the early noughties.

http://www.cso.ie/Quicktables/GetQuickTables.aspx?FileName=cja01c1.asp&TableName=Homicide+Offences&StatisticalProduct=DB_CJ

Burglary seems to be steady and we've actually seen a slight rise since 2004, although a fall from levels in 2011 and 2012. Also the vast majority are not aggravated burglaries.

http://www.cso.ie/Quicktables/GetQuickTables.aspx?FileName=cja01c12.asp&TableName=Burglary+and+related+offences&StatisticalProduct=DB_CJ

Assaults and attempted murder is a mixed bag. We're (relatively speaking) way up in threats of murder, but maybe that's more people reporting it. Also up in harrassment. Seem to be down on Assaults causing bodily harm (what used to be called GBH I presume), but in other assaults we are higher than 2004, but a good bit lower than every year since 2006.

http://www.cso.ie/Quicktables/GetQuickTables.aspx?FileName=cja01c13.asp&TableName=Attempts+/+threats+to+murder+,+assaults+,+harassments+and+related+offences&StatisticalProduct=DB_CJ

Robbery is actually slightly up
http://www.cso.ie/Quicktables/GetQuickTables.aspx?FileName=cja01c15.asp&TableName=Robbery+,+extortion+and+hijacking+offences&StatisticalProduct=DB_CJ

Theft is up quite a bit actually, especially shoplifting.
http://www.cso.ie/Quicktables/GetQuickTables.aspx?FileName=cja01c16.asp&TableName=Theft+and+related+offences&StatisticalProduct=DB_CJ

Drugs offences also up
http://www.cso.ie/Quicktables/GetQuickTables.aspx?FileName=cja01c17.asp&TableName=Controlled+drug+offences&StatisticalProduct=DB_CJ


The trend on most of these, for some reason, appears to be that the crime stats were at their peak around 2009-2012, and are in a bit of a fall at the moment.

[Rossie11]

Would be interesting to see if the ratio of public order offences to the number of males between 18-35 in the country between 2007-2008 is the same as now.
ie less of that age bracket in the country = less public order offences but the same ratio overall
This age bracket has been hit the most by both emigration whilst it would be the highest for this type of offence

I am unsure if people are drinking less individually just maybe less people of "drinking age" around especially in rural areas

[All of a Sludden]

Making robberies into larcenies. Making rapes disappear. You juke the stats, and majors become colonels.

[haranguerer]

Dont forget stats can be manipulated, while this is hard to do for murder (which its no coincidence I'm sure, has stayed largely steady), its easier to do for vandalism, assault, etc. These (or types of these) can all be reclassified to portray a different picture to suit purposes.

(edit - as Sludden has just said)

[smort]

Making robberies into larcenies. Making rapes disappear. You juke the stats, and majors become colonels.

good oul Prez

[The Iceman]

I wonder what the crime stats are in Oz? I'd say a lot of those declining numbers AZ are as a result of the mass exodus to Australia? (no pun intended - that's another thread)
Good to see the road fatality numbers down - I think the DoE especially in the North have a great advertising campaign and strict policies and it has to be helping.

I'd say the price of drink has helped- people can't afford to be out as much possibly leads to less assaults, less fights, less rapes? Who knows.

I know i don't feel any safer out on the town that I did 15-20 years ago. Do you?