Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[Declan]

Voters set to endorse EU-IMF deal in election

Election to show that Irish people are scared of any great change to society – despite what we might tell Joe Duffy, writes FINTAN O'TOOLE

WHATEVER SCEPTICS may think, the election will make at least one huge difference.

Up until February 25th, there will have been no popular mandate for turning bank debt into public debt and imposing another four years of austerity. After Friday, unless all the polls are completely askew, there will be a popular mandate for the bank bailout, the EU-IMF deal and the cuts. Behind all the excitement of a historic changing of the guard, this is the real big event.

Come Saturday morning, like every morning after every election in the history of the State, right-of-centre establishment politics will be triumphant. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will have well over half the vote between them, 53 per cent according to yesterday's Irish Times poll. More strikingly, it is precisely the same as the 53 per cent that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil between them got in the European elections in June 2009.

Everything that has happened since then – the revelation of the abysmal depths of the banking crisis, the loss of economic sovereignty in the EU-IMF deal – has resulted in little more than a shift in support between the two right-of-centre parties that have dominated Irish politics since the foundation of the State. Leave aside the "vingince, by Jaysus!" factor in relation to Fianna Fáil, and there is nothing to trouble the seismologist. To adapt the fictitious Times (of London) headline invented by Claud Cockburn: Small Earthquake in Ireland, Not Many Dead.

This outcome will be greeted with relief by the European Central Bank and the fiscal hawks within the EU.

It will mean that all the rage and disgust, all the cursing and fist-shaking, will have amounted to nothing very much. Internally, of course, Fianna Fáil's worst result to date (even the defeated and disarrayed republicans in 1923 got 27 per cent of the vote with many of their candidates in jail) will be a big deal. But externally, where the real power now lies, it will seem that nothing of great significance has happened.

The Irish will have a new government, surely more competent and energetic than the exhausted and demoralised one that rolled over when the IMF and the ECB came to town. The new boys will be rewarded with some promises of adjustments to interest rates that will allow them to claim victory. And they will get on with the job of nationalising private debt while attempting to bring the public deficit to below 3 per cent of GDP by 2014.

From the point of view of the ECB, the Irish will be even more onside than they are now. There was always a worry that Fianna Fáil and the Greens did not have public consent for the four-year plan they signed up to. These parties, after all, took just a quarter of the vote between them in 2009. That consent is now in the process of being secured. A few small concessions may be necessary but, after Friday, it will be essentially in the bag.

This is, surely, a remarkable state of affairs. Is there any other democracy where 55 per cent of the electorate would freely vote for a €15 billion austerity programme combined with a €100 billion transfer of wealth from citizens to banks? And let's be clear – this vote is free. For all the limitations to Irish democracy, and all the unhappiness that people may feel about the alternatives, there is nothing to stop people using their votes to send a very different kind of message. Most people will freely choose not to do so.

That's their right, but it is tough on those who don't have a choice at all, particularly the hidden people in this election – children. I've written before about the Irish capacity for "unknown knowns", things we know to be the case but choose not to be aware of. One of those big unknown knowns is that children will pay a heavily disproportionate price for our collective consent to the current policy.

Children in the poorest families are the most dependent on public services. The inevitable rise in poverty and the cutting of those services will hit them hard, at enormous long-term human and economic cost.

But that cost is tacitly written in to the deal. It is not even up for discussion in any substantial way. Fianna Fáil's manifesto says nothing at all about poverty or children.

Fine Gael's has 860 words on the burning issue of defence policy and 360 words on children, all of them decent but most of them vague.

Labour has good intentions about eliminating poverty but the main specific proposal for breaking the cycle of child poverty is the rolling out of an area-based strategy in "up to 10 of Ireland's most disadvantaged communities, at a cost of up to €15 million" – very nice, very fuzzy and very, very modest.

The three biggest parties clearly decided that, whatever we tell Joe Duffy, we are actually a timid people, willing to put up with what's happened to us and scared of any great change in the way our society works. The evidence is that they were right.

[Poc me]

Fintan O'Toole is absolutely SPOT ON. A few Greek people in Ireland observed a few weeks ago that they were confused that there were few street protests and riots given the history of Ireland. Ireland is a conservative country, past rebellions have nearly exclusively been against the oppressor from another country. The people will not vote for the left wing parties even though the FG/FF parties are endorsing the situation we are in.

Any leftist rising tends to be washed away like the socialist fervour represented in Soviet na hÉireann that was shown on TG4, a recommended programme!! The right wing elements of the country did everything in their power to crush them. Then we look at the SPanish CIvil War...little over 100 Irish men going to fight fascism while over 1000 go to fight for fascism simply because they have the same religion...

[Declan]

The people will not vote for the left wing parties even though the FG/FF parties are endorsing the situation we are in.

Heard it described well on radio the other morning.
Irish people are left wing in their hearts but right wing in their wallets

[AZOffaly]

The people will not vote for the left wing parties even though the FG/FF parties are endorsing the situation we are in.

Heard it described well on radio the other morning.
Irish people are left wing in their hearts but right wing in their wallets

I think that's it in one.

[Croí na hÉireann]

sorry lads, back again after a weekend of drunkeness in Nottingham.

Did ye manage to kit him out or is it a case of what goes on tour stays on tour?

On a different issue, I know there's a ban on GAA property being used for party political purposes but does anyone know if there any rule on GAA crests being used on political leaflets, etc? Reason I ask is Robert Troy of Fianna Fáil was handing out "No.1" leaflets outside Cusack Park yesterday with the Westmeath GAA crest and the fixtures for the year. I presume he had the permission for that from the county board (at a price I hope) but if there's a rule on property it should also extend to digital & print media.

You think it's ok for the GAA to allow such use of its assets for a price?

Absolutely not, was disgusted to see the Westmeath crest on a Fianna Fail leaflet. However if the Westmeath County Board were stupid enough to allow their property to be used I hope they at least got something for the privilege. Least it only had the fixtures on it and not the teams. Lone Shark's post reminds me of heading in to O'Connor Park when the Lisbon treaty was on, the no side were handing out leaflets with the teams on them that day as well, another hit for the GAA I'd say 

[armaghniac]

Irish people are left wing in their hearts but right wing in their wallets

Well you know what they say.
If you are not socialist at 20, you are heartless.
If you are still socialist at 40, you are brainless.

Mind you we have a young population. But the socialists aren't very impressive.

[Lone Shark]

The people will not vote for the left wing parties even though the FG/FF parties are endorsing the situation we are in.

Heard it described well on radio the other morning.
Irish people are left wing in their hearts but right wing in their wallets

I think that's it in one.

Is that not every society, everywhere though? The idea of social support, public infrastructure, universal healthcare and all these things sound like good ideas until it comes to paying for them.

We're just clueless enough as a society that we think we can have the best of both worlds.

[Declan]

Is that not every society, everywhere though

Well there is an argument that the Social Democrat models of Europe are closer to agreeing that healthcare education etc are worth paying for.

Also people in Ireland seem willing enough to pay for private education and healthcare themselves and some would argue that this is because they want to preserve the inequalities in our society by ensuring their children get every advantage they can rather than giving everyone equal access to them

[Bogball XV]

On a different issue, I know there's a ban on GAA property being used for party political purposes but does anyone know if there any rule on GAA crests being used on political leaflets, etc? Reason I ask is Robert Troy of Fianna Fáil was handing out "No.1" leaflets outside Cusack Park yesterday with the Westmeath GAA crest and the fixtures for the year. I presume he had the permission for that from the county board (at a price I hope) but if there's a rule on property it should also extend to digital & print media.

Just something to bear in mind on this issue also as an aside. One political party in the run up to the council elections held most recently handed out pamphlets outside O'Connor Park with the teams listed on them. Absolutely crucified programme sales on the day and by a conservative estimate, cost the Offaly county board thousands. And this would be a party who would consider themselves "friends" of the GAA. Funny way of showing it, I don't like to rob my friends.

In this instance one man's cost is another man's saving LS

[muppet]

The people will not vote for the left wing parties even though the FG/FF parties are endorsing the situation we are in.

Heard it described well on radio the other morning.
Irish people are left wing in their hearts but right wing in their wallets

I think that's it in one.

Is that not every society, everywhere though? The idea of social support, public infrastructure, universal healthcare and all these things sound like good ideas until it comes to paying for them.

We're just clueless enough as a society that we think we can have the best of both worlds.

Healthcare and infrastructure are one thing, but socialising private banks' gambling losses is an entirely different form of socialism. SF calling the crisis a right wing one is half right as in it was created by unrestrained  capitalists, but it became our problem because it was nationalised.

In Ireland we have a bitteen right wing in FG and a bitteen left in Labour. If they were further from the centre they would never get on but (Gilmore's recent blundering apart) they always do.

We had further right in the PDs and we didn't like that and now some are going to look further left with SF.

Somewhere earlier on I criticised all parties for saying jobs were the issue and for seemingly ignoring the financial crisis. Thinking about it more job creation, in the private sector, is the only way out of this crisis. Ideally the rate of job creation would at least match the inevitable job losses to come in the public service and in the banking sector.

For those in Mayo you could do worse than vote for independent candidate Dermot McDonnell who has helped  set up a co-op in Belacorrick to build wind farms. He proposes to have wind powered generation on a vast scale away from populated areas. His proposal includes manufacturing as much of the hardware as possible locally. He wants local jobs producing cheap power, not handouts. He has been working on this for years and has received nothing but obstacles from the Minister Ryan and his Department and of course the inevitable vested interests. The Department won't even release their own data on research into wind power generation.

I like this idea of local projects providing jobs, ultimately paying their own way and producing energy cheaply. Anyone can sign up. Why does it always have to be the usual vested interests?

[Maguire01]

On a different issue, I know there's a ban on GAA property being used for party political purposes but does anyone know if there any rule on GAA crests being used on political leaflets, etc? Reason I ask is Robert Troy of Fianna Fáil was handing out "No.1" leaflets outside Cusack Park yesterday with the Westmeath GAA crest and the fixtures for the year. I presume he had the permission for that from the county board (at a price I hope) but if there's a rule on property it should also extend to digital & print media.

Just something to bear in mind on this issue also as an aside. One political party in the run up to the council elections held most recently handed out pamphlets outside O'Connor Park with the teams listed on them. Absolutely crucified programme sales on the day and by a conservative estimate, cost the Offaly county board thousands. And this would be a party who would consider themselves "friends" of the GAA. Funny way of showing it, I don't like to rob my friends.

Who? Name and shame!

[muppet]

Irish Independent MillwardBrownLansdowne poll: FF 14 -2 FG 38 +1 Lab 20= GP 1= SF 11 -1 Ind 16 +2

[AZOffaly]

On a different issue, I know there's a ban on GAA property being used for party political purposes but does anyone know if there any rule on GAA crests being used on political leaflets, etc? Reason I ask is Robert Troy of Fianna Fáil was handing out "No.1" leaflets outside Cusack Park yesterday with the Westmeath GAA crest and the fixtures for the year. I presume he had the permission for that from the county board (at a price I hope) but if there's a rule on property it should also extend to digital & print media.

Just something to bear in mind on this issue also as an aside. One political party in the run up to the council elections held most recently handed out pamphlets outside O'Connor Park with the teams listed on them. Absolutely crucified programme sales on the day and by a conservative estimate, cost the Offaly county board thousands. And this would be a party who would consider themselves "friends" of the GAA. Funny way of showing it, I don't like to rob my friends.

Who? Name and shame!

When  LS is giving out about them, who do you think they were?

[Maguire01]

On a different issue, I know there's a ban on GAA property being used for party political purposes but does anyone know if there any rule on GAA crests being used on political leaflets, etc? Reason I ask is Robert Troy of Fianna Fáil was handing out "No.1" leaflets outside Cusack Park yesterday with the Westmeath GAA crest and the fixtures for the year. I presume he had the permission for that from the county board (at a price I hope) but if there's a rule on property it should also extend to digital & print media.

Just something to bear in mind on this issue also as an aside. One political party in the run up to the council elections held most recently handed out pamphlets outside O'Connor Park with the teams listed on them. Absolutely crucified programme sales on the day and by a conservative estimate, cost the Offaly county board thousands. And this would be a party who would consider themselves "friends" of the GAA. Funny way of showing it, I don't like to rob my friends.

Who? Name and shame!

When  LS is giving out about them, who do you think they were?

Haven't noticed.

[Bogball XV]

I'm trying to watch this debate and pretend I've an interest, but this is really the most boring election I can ever remember - maybe it's just that I'm getting older and even more cynical, maybe it's because those elected will have all the power of a county councillor, but I am struggling to care about this at all.  More likely it's that the only person I would vote for is running in another constituency and I have no wish to endorse any other party.