Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[muppet]

Point well made Lar but the new Government will need quite a bit of a majority to face down vested interests like the public service unions, not to mention the banks. If they have a smallish majority Labour won't be able to risk it. A bigger majority would allow vulnerable Government TDs to save face without the risk of bringing down the Government. A 6 TD majority would be way to small for this imho.

However, first things first. Those who got us into such a mess need to be sent a strong message from the electorate. FF, the Greens and the PDs (history always repeats itself so someone will step into Harney's considerable void) need to have an electoral meltdown.

[Croí na hÉireann]

Would any of the 15 votes cast for FF care to explain their reasoning (taking for granted that no one wants to hear from the 16th PSTG)? Beggars belief people are still going to vote for them after what they've done to this country.

Well, I just can't see myself giving the effin' effers any sort of vote this time around but I sincerely hope lots of other aren't feeling as thick as I am and will vote in the country's best interests!
BTW; I am being very, very serious here.
We need a change of government fast; going by the opinion polls, it's fair to say that the vast majority of voters agree.
However, in order to have good governance we need good opposition. It won't serve anybody's interests if we get some sort of alliance, FG/Labour or whatever, that gets in with a massive majority. Now, I don't mind if SF gains more seats than FF or if 10 Jackie Healy-Rae clones make it onto the gravy train- I just want to see an administration with a workable majority, 5 or 6 would be sufficient.

I'd like to see Enda, or whoever becomes Taoiseach, getting a comfortable working majority and no more.
Back in '77, Jack Lynch was returned with a 20 seat majority for FF and he was to say some years later that it was the worst thing that could have happened for himself as Taoiseach and for the country at large. For one thing, there was open warfare in most constituencies between the various FFs who got elected as each one tried to ensure that he copper-fastened his chances of re-election at the next election and spent more time and energy sparring with his colleagues than in looking after his/her duties.
It's looking like FG and Labour will have a massive majority when the dust settles after March 11th but I hope it's nowhere near as large as Jack Lynch got in '77. Jack at least had only one party to contend with but I can see plenty of scope for conflict countrywide as FG and Labour heads start to eyeball each other and start thinking about the pecking order and ignore the affairs of state.

Good post and well made Lar. Personally I'd like to see either Lab or FG squeeze in on their own (with the help of a few independents, 6 should be more than enough). That would leave the other as a sizable minority in the Dáil and hopefully FF will get obliterated. This is a once in a century chance to get rid of the cancer and cronyism that FF represent and send out a message to all parties (current and future) that we won't stand for that shite anymore. Jaysus if it was up to me I'd get rid of FG as well and let the "best" of both parties unite under the one right wing banner instead of being different sides of the same shitty coin. Have had it with Civil War politics...

[Declan]

Any chance we'll see this lad out helping the party??
http://www.broadsheet.ie/2011/01/20/eye-popping-bertie-on-google-street-view/

[AZOffaly]

I foresee the independents doing very well in these elections.

I can only see the disenchanted diehard Fianna Fail voters doing 1 of 3 things ( In general of course, there'll always be exceptions).

1. Stay at home
2. Vote Sinn Fein\Labour
3. Vote Independent

I can't see a large amount of FF voters who do wish to punish the party voting Fine Gael. I just don't see it happening. So I also think only a small number will take the plunge and vote Sinn Fein. I see a larger amount voting Labour, but not a huge amount as Labour's penchant for taxation will turn off traditional FF voters.

So I see independent candidates, especially those from the FF flock that proclaim themselves disappointed with the party, will clean up on local issues and being the safe 'punishment' option.

[AZOffaly]

For what it's worth by the way, I think I would nearly prefer a Fine Gael overall majority. I don't think Fine Gael and Labour will be a marriage that can last beyond 1 term at most, especially when the dust settles on the current political debacle.

[muppet]

For what it's worth by the way, I think I would nearly prefer a Fine Gael overall majority. I don't think Fine Gael and Labour will be a marriage that can last beyond 1 term at most, especially when the dust settles on the current political debacle.

At a minimum we really need the next government to be able to last for a full term.

One of the reasons we stayed in the rut in the 1980s was because of the instability caused by too many elections. It started with the fall of Haughey's government. Garrett the Good took over to discover that the Dept of Finance had only 2 weeks wages left for the public sector. That should have condemned Fianna Fail to a decade in the doldrums, but it didn't and they came out of the 1980s still in power.

Will we learn the lesson? Probably not.

[Ulick]

I don't think we should be taking it for granted that there will be a FG/Labour coalition. The way the numbers are stacking up, FG may be able to form a government with the support of independents, or God help us, the Greens. Sure why would they form a coalition with Labour giving away numerous senior ministerial posts in the process for a majority of 25 when 5 would do just as well?

[muppet]

I don't think we should be taking it for granted that there will be a FG/Labour coalition. The way the numbers are stacking up, FG may be able to form a government with the support of independents, or God help us, the Greens. Sure why would they form a coalition with Labour giving away numerous senior ministerial posts in the process for a majority of 25 when 5 would do just as well?

Not having a go at you Ulick, for that is exactly what the priority will be, but surely for once the state of crisis in the State might take precedence?

[brokencrossbar1]

I don't think we should be taking it for granted that there will be a FG/Labour coalition. The way the numbers are stacking up, FG may be able to form a government with the support of independents, or God help us, the Greens. Sure why would they form a coalition with Labour giving away numerous senior ministerial posts in the process for a majority of 25 when 5 would do just as well?

Not having a go at you Ulick, for that is exactly what the priority will be, but surely for once the state of crisis in the State might take precedence?

You are having a laugh muppet, arn't you?  If FG get a clear majority it will be a case of blame FF for the first 6 months until the dust settles and then the reality of Government will hit them smack bang in the middle of the forehead and they will start floundering and in fighting.  Come their first budget they will be getting it consistently from the new FF leader Miceal Martin, that they promised a lot and have offered nothing.  Kenny's leadership will come under more scrutiny and the internal vultures will start circling and as they might just have a slight majority you will see there will be another election in 2 years.  Only guessing here like!

[magpie seanie]

Anybody else sick of the election already?

Not at all, I can't wait to see Dev spinning in his grave with a copy of the Irish Press shoved up his hole

as Charlie runs burning with the fires of Hell through Phoenix Park.

For Fine Gael's sake I really hope you have nothing to do with them especially on the canvassing end of things.

I was just thinking that Seanie. Maybe he's a FF plant, a sort of double agent. Like Ian Paisley being the IRA's best recruiter.

Lads I know ye're coming at this from a different perspective and of course deep seated rage is not an attractive trait that will bring along a lot of support, but surely ye must understand that while people keep it under their hats as best they can, for a lot of people who have seen through FF and their ways for the last five years, of course it's natural to want them to suffer. Just as the parents of a murdered child want the killer to go to jail for the crime, so it is natural that the citizens of Ireland would want to see justice done to those who brutally raped and sodomized our collective society.

A year or so ago I would have taken part in a discussion on this board on the death penalty and I remember opposing it on the grounds that if I wouldn't be willing to be the guy to flick the switch, then I shouldn't support it, but that was at a time when it would be designed for bog standard murderers and abusers. Fianna Fáil have systematically robbed thousands of wealth from everyone in this country for the enrichment of themselves and their friends, they have denied the opportunity to live and work in Ireland to a whole generation, and their administration of everything is geared towards re-election, to the point that if you're part of the clan, you get your debts written off and a cosy job on a state quango somewhere, if you're not, your vital medical treatments go undone. That's a crime, organised, orchestrated and deliberately executed, on a scale way beyond anything else in the history of the state. Ask me would I flick the switch if Bertie was in the chair? I honestly don't know.

Don't presume that because there are people out their who feel that they should all burn in hell, that they are a plant. I find it a quite natural feeling right now.

I also understand that I'm probably helping their cause by getting the backs up of traditional FF voters who are just looking for an excuse to return home to the party with their vote on March 11th, but I can't help it. These people are going to find some excuse to do so anyway,they're conditioned to do so.

No Lone Shark, in this case I'd strongly disagree with you. Its not about perspective. The comments were way over the top, completely unnecessary and unhelpful and that's from someone who is raging with FF myself.

[muppet]

I don't think we should be taking it for granted that there will be a FG/Labour coalition. The way the numbers are stacking up, FG may be able to form a government with the support of independents, or God help us, the Greens. Sure why would they form a coalition with Labour giving away numerous senior ministerial posts in the process for a majority of 25 when 5 would do just as well?

Not having a go at you Ulick, for that is exactly what the priority will be, but surely for once the state of crisis in the State might take precedence?

You are having a laugh muppet, arn't you?  If FG get a clear majority it will be a case of blame FF for the first 6 months until the dust settles and then the reality of Government will hit them smack bang in the middle of the forehead and they will start floundering and in fighting.  Come their first budget they will be getting it consistently from the new FF leader Miceal Martin, that they promised a lot and have offered nothing.  Kenny's leadership will come under more scrutiny and the internal vultures will start circling and as they might just have a slight majority you will see there will be another election in 2 years.  Only guessing here like!

And Wham another lost decade like the 1980s will slide by.

As I said, we never learn.

[liihb]

I have an interesting quandary - do I vote for:
Jim Higgins - space cadet
Brian Lenihan - party to the madness
Joan Burtan - melted welly head
Leo Varadkar - self congratulatory lilttle f***
Some random sc**bag that Sinn Fein Give us in West Dublin. (and they do before all you Sinners get excited)

I always vote, but this time I'm not so sure.

[brokencrossbar1]

I don't think we should be taking it for granted that there will be a FG/Labour coalition. The way the numbers are stacking up, FG may be able to form a government with the support of independents, or God help us, the Greens. Sure why would they form a coalition with Labour giving away numerous senior ministerial posts in the process for a majority of 25 when 5 would do just as well?

Not having a go at you Ulick, for that is exactly what the priority will be, but surely for once the state of crisis in the State might take precedence?

You are having a laugh muppet, arn't you?  If FG get a clear majority it will be a case of blame FF for the first 6 months until the dust settles and then the reality of Government will hit them smack bang in the middle of the forehead and they will start floundering and in fighting.  Come their first budget they will be getting it consistently from the new FF leader Miceal Martin, that they promised a lot and have offered nothing.  Kenny's leadership will come under more scrutiny and the internal vultures will start circling and as they might just have a slight majority you will see there will be another election in 2 years.  Only guessing here like!

And Wham another lost decade like the 1980s will slide by.

As I said, we never learn.

Call it good, call it bad, call it anything you want to baby but that is what I see happening and I don't see a real alternative from FG.  A friend of mine, who's son in law is French told me an interesting story his morning.  This man is very learned and he said he was speaking to his son in law about the situation here and the son in law, who has studied French history, said that they have had 5 "revolutions" until they got the right Republic.  Now France is not ideal but it raises the interesting point, is now the right time for the next "revolution" to create the next phase of democratic evolution in Ireland.  the civil war politics have gone, the country is in a financial mess and there seems no real future.  Time to have a clean slate and build again.  The people are resourceful and can adapt maybe it is a time to run the Monty Brewster campaign and see how the politicians react???

[Ulick]

surely for once the state of crisis in the State might take precedence?

Not a chance, especially not with FG who have been waiting 15 years to get back on the gravy-train. Bunch of self-serving gombeens every bit as bad as FF.

[tommysmith]

That Poll is a waste of time with all the nordies voting SF.