The Six counties European Election Thread/Poll

[delboy]

I see the beeb are reporting anecdotal evidence of greater voter apathy in unionist and working class areas.

[Donagh]

Rumours are the DUP are getting trounced by Jim Alistair. SDLP seem to have a respectable showing (leading south Belfast). What odds on the DUP and TUV cancelling each other out to let the SDLP and UUP in? Now that would be funny.

[armaghniac]

It depends on whether unionists have this no transfer nonsense. The SDLP guy is not going to get many transfers from either Allister or Dodds, but if either of these is eliminated then the other should get a fair few, unless they are plumpers.  McGuiness will pick up some transfers the elimination of Parsley and Nicholson will benefit from this too.

[tyrone86]

Getting way, way, way ahead of things here, but on the off chance that Maginness does get the 3rd seat, how will that effect the dynamic in North Belfast in the General Election? Surely Gerry Kelly will never have a better chance, and if the TUV get involved...

[Maguire01]

Rumours are the DUP are getting trounced by Jim Alistair. SDLP seem to have a respectable showing (leading south Belfast).

What are you talking about? Vote counting doesn't take place until Monday.

[Donagh]

What are you talking about? Vote counting doesn't take place until Monday.

The verifications are happening at the minute. All political parties have representatives there and with the low turnout it's easy enough to see who's coming in ahead of who on first preferences.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Rumours are the DUP are getting trounced by Jim Alistair. SDLP seem to have a respectable showing (leading south Belfast).

What are you talking about? Vote counting doesn't take place until Monday.

The political parties have their people in the Kings Hall and they will all be hovering over the tables doing tick counts on the ballots as there being verified.

[Maguire01]

Fair enough - am not familiar with the ins and outs of this process.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Fair enough - am not familiar with the ins and outs of this process.

Its a fairly rough yardstick normally, but with the low turnout in some areas they can sometimes get good enough figures.

[Donagh]

Fair enough - am not familiar with the ins and outs of this process.

In fairness on the SF returns I saw last night, it doesn't look like there is a second nationalist seat but am now hearing turnout in nationalist areas is significantly better. South Armagh, West Belfast and Mid Ulster having the best turnout so far, so still all to play for on Monday.

[Maguire01]

Fair enough - am not familiar with the ins and outs of this process.

In fairness on the SF returns I saw last night, it doesn't look like there is a second nationalist seat but am now hearing turnout in nationalist areas is significantly better. South Armagh, West Belfast and Mid Ulster having the best turnout so far, so still all to play for on Monday.

Do you mean the SF vote wasn't transferring?

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Fair enough - am not familiar with the ins and outs of this process.

In fairness on the SF returns I saw last night, it doesn't look like there is a second nationalist seat but am now hearing turnout in nationalist areas is significantly better. South Armagh, West Belfast and Mid Ulster having the best turnout so far, so still all to play for on Monday.

Do you mean the SF vote wasn't transferring?

I did. 

Just on the radio news there now from Kings Hall - early indications that Allister is going to seriously "shock" the DUP, Babs looking good to top the poll.

[Donagh]

Do you mean the SF vote wasn't transferring?

No just in relation to the turnout in nationalist areas as a percentage of the overall electorate. On the face of it last night, it was looking like there wasn't enough people voting to take a second seat but now it's looking like the the quota will be significantly lower because unionist turnout is also way down then. The way I see it Maginness is still in with a fighting chance depending on how transfers split.

[Donagh]

Early figures confirm low turnout in North

05/06/2009 - 13:32:18
Early figures for voter turnout for the European Parliament election have confirmed fears of a huge drop in the numbers voting.

The initial tallies point to a major drop in turnout on the last Euro poll of 51.72%, with today's figures as low as 38.9% in some areas.

Figures are emerging from the King's Hall count centre in Belfast as the votes are verified ahead of the counting process which is to begin on Monday.

As the first sets of ballot boxes were opened today, the turnout for six constituencies were confirmed as:

:: Belfast South: 42.1%

:: Belfast West: 46.6%

:: Lagan Valley: 38.86%

:: South Down: 44.97%

:: Mid Ulster: 52.83%

:: North Antrim 43.7%

http://breaking.tcm.ie/ireland/early-figures-confirm-low-turnout-in-north-413647.html#ixzz0HYqK8wEC&D

[Lecale2]

It could get interesting but I'll stand by my earlier prediction.