Cheltenham

[kumquat]

ONL, what do you think of denmans chances against kauto? I know he has had problems but at 6/1 he is a great price.

[Our Nail Loney]

ONL, what do you think of denmans chances against kauto? I know he has had problems but at 6/1 he is a great price.

Its very very hard to know, he looked a shadow of his former self on his last run at Kempton in February... I know he had a long lay off before this, and it was on a track that didnt suit his jumping but it was still very sad to see a former champ like that... I read somewhere that the burn out rate for 3mile chasers is higher than ever these days, so if Denman were to win tomorrow it would be extraordinary...

Here is some quotes after that race:

At this moment he's still in the Gold Cup as there is nothing else for him but I fear he is going to have to improve on what he showed there. It was not a washout but it was not great either. - Harry Findlay

I would lying if I told you I wasn't disappointed. I thought it was only a matter of turning up today and he'd do what he does, but he didn't. He missed the first and it took me a bit to get him going, get him on an even keel, but when I got him in first time down the back he was good and travelled great by here until Tom Scu moved it up a gear. He had me struggling by the time he jumped the ditch past here. He was fairly tired but the race was over turning in when you start to nurse him home and consolidate your position without riding him into the ground. - Ruby Walsh

He wasn't at his brilliant best today obviously and he needs to improve. He obviously will improve after this sharpening up and going the other way round on a galloping track, but he needs to, there is no point saying otherwise. Kauto Star must be the one they have to beat. You can't say anythingdifferent. He won a King George, he's come back to form. I was hoping Denman would whizz around here today and go and win nicely. He didn't, so he's got to improve and as we all stand here, you'd all have to agree with me. As they get older they do improve for a run but tobe back to his very, very best he's got to improve. He might, but it's quite possible he might not.- Paul Nicholls

Then there is this quote this week from Nicholls: "Denman won't mind decent ground, but I honestly don't know how he will run. There's no reason not to run him, but if he tanks off like last year, he won't get home. Sam (Thomas) will have to ride him as he finds him.

f you get a chance get the Racing Post tomorrow and give Paul Nicholls column a read, he is often very frank and honest and should give you his chances...

But going by this seasons run he on't be able to keep up with Kauto, though the run may have took him on leaps and bounds... I think the value could be Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges, though I am going to be looking into the race further...

[kumquat]

Ok nail, racing post it is. Cheers

[leenie]

and it being the recession.... i'm having the worst year so far...

going to go all out tomorrow my weekend and paddy's sessions relies on this....

good times or bad times

i'm  resorted to tips nows 

[The Corporal]

ONL, what chances would you give Barber Shop in the gold cup?

[illdecide]

If our Nail gives me 7/2 or even 3/1 for Katuo i'll be in at lunch time to pay him another visit with the coupons...At least you know backing him will give you a sweat and in with a very good chance at the line

[Our Nail Loney]

Nicholls column in the Racing Post today here is the gist of what eh says about the main three for the GC

Kauto Star: 'The one most likely to deliver. Kauto is fresh, hes well, drying ground will be perfect and ehs got a massive chance. Hes had a great prep this year, as he has got older I have learnt he needs more time between races and give him plenty of time to get fit at home. Everything at home has gone to plan. His final piece of work with Master Minded last Saturday was the best I have seen from him in a long time.'

Denman: 'I have been a lot happier with what I have seen the last couple of weeks. He has been reunited with work rider Jess Allen and has helped him, he seems to be improving on a daily basis. When he tanked along the gallop on Monday he was so full of himself I thought he wasn't going to pull up. However whether we run out of time to get him back to the sort of form he was in last year, only the race will tell us. If he finishes in the first four this time I'll be delighted and it will reflect well on the whole team, who have worked hard to get him back'

Neptune Collonges: 'He won his Grade 1 nicely last time, and although it came close to Cheltenham he recovered quickly from the trip. Hes a year younger then Denman and Kauto so I hope hes still improving, I expect him to make them all go. Hes a true galloper who stays well, so Christian will have to make plenty of use of him'

[Our Nail Loney]

If our Nail gives me 7/2 or even 3/1 for Katuo i'll be in at lunch time to pay him another visit with the coupons...At least you know backing him will give you a sweat and in with a very good chance at the line

7/2  You are having a Steffi!! Special price expired last night, too much money took on him. I am encouraged by what Nicholls has to say about Kauto.

Chief Racing Correspondent James Willoughby also says Kauto is the one for the race but he thinks Neptune offers the value...

I think Exotic Dancer and Barbers Shop will be in the mix come the end, I don't rate Madison De Berlais as high as some ppl do...

[Our Nail Loney]

ONL, what chances would you give Barber Shop in the gold cup?

Will have to run out of his skin to be up there with Kauto, Neptune and Exotic...

[Our Nail Loney]

Before the festival I got a word from a fella that plays golf with Andy Stewart ( I know I know but the fella is normally reliable enough with info) and he said that Nicholls had told Stewart that his best chance of a winner at the Festival was Poquelin... Runs in the Grand Annual, last race today, was about 8/1 at the time now around 6/1...

This is Stewart who won yesterday with Big Bucks, and also has the Champ Hurdle runner Celestial Halo

Worth pointing out that Daves Dream today is going for the £75,000 double in the Vincent O' Brien Hurdle, the 2.05 after winning the Imperial Cup on Saturday...

[ulster-boy]

and it being the recession.... i'm having the worst year so far...

going to go all out tomorrow my weekend and paddy's sessions relies on this....

good times or bad times

i'm  resorted to tips nows 

try tharawaat each way in the triumph, overpriced at 40/1....

it might make ur paddy's day session that bit better 

[illdecide]

If our Nail gives me 7/2 or even 3/1 for Katuo i'll be in at lunch time to pay him another visit with the coupons...At least you know backing him will give you a sweat and in with a very good chance at the line

7/2  You are having a Steffi!! Special price expired last night, too much money took on him. I am encouraged by what Nicholls has to say about Kauto.

Chief Racing Correspondent James Willoughby also says Kauto is the one for the race but he thinks Neptune offers the value...

I think Exotic Dancer and Barbers Shop will be in the mix come the end, I don't rate Madison De Berlais as high as some ppl do...

So what price is he Nail?

[kumquat]

Sam Thomas "my expectations are the same as last year. We know the horse has the ability; its just a question of whether he is 100% ready, which all the signs leading in are that he could well be"

[Maroon Heaven]

What was the horse O'Hehir tipped up on radio 1 this morning folks? I forget it now

[Our Nail Loney]

If our Nail gives me 7/2 or even 3/1 for Katuo i'll be in at lunch time to pay him another visit with the coupons...At least you know backing him will give you a sweat and in with a very good chance at the line

7/2  You are having a Steffi!! Special price expired last night, too much money took on him. I am encouraged by what Nicholls has to say about Kauto.

Chief Racing Correspondent James Willoughby also says Kauto is the one for the race but he thinks Neptune offers the value...

I think Exotic Dancer and Barbers Shop will be in the mix come the end, I don't rate Madison De Berlais as high as some ppl do...

So what price is he Nail?

2/1 at the minute...