six county elections 05/05/2011

[Evil Genius]

Two things are happening. The assembly was very popular with nationalists and they turned out in numbers in the past to vote for it, a measure of apathy has now set in. There are more centrist votes, this has meant that the nationalist vote tend not to increase and the unionist vote declines. In an election or two it will be equal votes for nationalists and unionists and 10% for the middle.

I would draw a different conclusion. The low turnout shows that apathy has set in across the whole spectrum of voters. Despite 30 years of bloodshed, repression and reprisals, the people of the north are now more indifferent to politics as the vast majority of the Uk, Ireland and Western Europe. Turnout was 15% lower than recent irish and 5% behind the uk elections.

Agree about increasing apathy in NI generally, but there is still a striking difference in the average turnout in Nationalist-dominated constituencies (60.5%) versus Unionist-dominated ones (50.5%).

Therefore if the turnout drops in the former to nearer the level seen in the latter, one might expect the Nationalist share of the overall vote, currently plateaued, actually to start declining.

Also the Alliance electoral gain is increasing steadily, 1.5% in 2007, 2.5% in 2011. They are really the only party who can walk away saying they had a successful election. They so no sign of hitting their ceiling and I think they will have a big part to play in elections of the future

Agree that the AP is doing well, but there is one qualification which needs to be taken into consideration, namely their vote is heavily concentrated in Unionist/middle-class/East of the Bann areas.

Until I got the calculator out, I hadn't realised just how marked this was. In the 7 Nationalist-majority constituencies*, they gained just 1.5% of the vote, whereas in the other 11 Unionist-majority constituencies, their share was 12.5%!

Of course, this means they have greater potential to increase their vote in Nationalist areas, but I suspect they are as unclear how to get Nats to switch to them them as I am!

Unless, of course, the contrasting votes for Hannah Su in F&ST (1.8%) and Anna Lo in S.Belfast (19.8%) means Nationalists are somehow inherently Sinophobic, and this is hurting the Alliance vote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5D_tvtT2Ig



* - F&ST, W.Tyrone, Foyle, Mid-Ulster, Newry & Armagh, S.Down, W.Belfast

[dodgy umpire]

48% might be close to a majority for unionists, but in every other election since 1922 unionist had a majority.

As I've indicated elsewhere, it seems indisputable that the clear majority of the 8.6% who voted Alliance or Green are from the Unionist community. So should it come to the test, I have no doubt these would vote "No" in a UI referendum.

Plus turnout figures clearly indicate that there are more "Garden Centre Prods" than their "Taig" counterparts, whom some or other of the various Unionist parties might hope to attract, should they come up with the right policies.

And in any case, between the DUP, UUP, TUV and Independent Unionist (McClarty), Unionism has scored a clear majority (56) of the 108 Stormont seats.

Whereas SF and the SDLP only managed 43 between them.

Still, you keep polishing that silver lining - I'm sure it must be a great comfort to you as you sit in the shade of that big, white fluffy thing in the sky! 

Or maybe nationalist voters in areas like north Down vote for candidates like Agnew as they see him as the only non unionist candidate with a chance of being elected?

[Gaffer]

The shinners are doing the business ?? 

What have they done for nationalists?

Marty spends his time licking Robinson's hole while Catriona is a total embarrassment.

not like Margarete Richy shes not an embarrassment or colour seargent tom burns out viewing 'our boys' sure they're great reps to have.
or in tomas case have not

Can anybody translate this post from Lawnseed?

[Maguire01]

The shinners are doing the business ?? 

What have they done for nationalists?

Marty spends his time licking Robinson's hole while Catriona is a total embarrassment.

not like Margarete Richy shes not an embarrassment or colour seargent tom burns out viewing 'our boys' sure they're great reps to have.
or in tomas case have not

Can anybody translate this post from Lawnseed?

Is it Ulster Scots?

[ziggysego]

The shinners are doing the business ?? 

What have they done for nationalists?

Marty spends his time licking Robinson's hole while Catriona is a total embarrassment.

not like Margarete Richy shes not an embarrassment or colour seargent tom burns out viewing 'our boys' sure they're great reps to have.
or in tomas case have not

Can anybody translate this post from Lawnseed?

Is it Ulster Scots?

No, Ulster Scot is easier to understand.

[Evil Genius]

48% might be close to a majority for unionists, but in every other election since 1922 unionist had a majority.

As I've indicated elsewhere, it seems indisputable that the clear majority of the 8.6% who voted Alliance or Green are from the Unionist community. So should it come to the test, I have no doubt these would vote "No" in a UI referendum.

Plus turnout figures clearly indicate that there are more "Garden Centre Prods" than their "Taig" counterparts, whom some or other of the various Unionist parties might hope to attract, should they come up with the right policies.

And in any case, between the DUP, UUP, TUV and Independent Unionist (McClarty), Unionism has scored a clear majority (56) of the 108 Stormont seats.

Whereas SF and the SDLP only managed 43 between them.

Still, you keep polishing that silver lining - I'm sure it must be a great comfort to you as you sit in the shade of that big, white fluffy thing in the sky! 

Or maybe nationalist voters in areas like north Down vote for candidates like Agnew as they see him as the only non unionist candidate with a chance of being elected?

This is possibly a factor, but it surely cannot account solely for Alliance receiving eight times the vote in Unionist-majority constituencies that it receives in Nationalist-majority ones.

And in any case, North Down is traditionally the most idiosyncratic/individualistic constituency in the whole of NI. With the likes of Kilfedder, McCartney and Hermon as MP, Unionists there have a long tradition of voting for individuals from outwith the mainstream Unionist parties. I suspect that Agnew has benefitted from this independent thinking.

And besides, the likes of Gerry Kelly/Alban McGuinness, Oliver McMullan, Daithi McKay, Cathal O hOisin and Mitchell McLaughlin demonstrate that SF (esp) and SDLP are still pretty effective at mustering the Nationalist vote in Unionist-majority areas.

[Ulick]

Trying to claim Alliance voters as unionist is grand except for a few points:

1. They themselves claim they are not unionist
2. A disproportionate amount of their transfers go to nationalist candidates
3. They are more likely to get elected in unionist areas as they will also have the support of nationalists who are in a minority and don't have a chance of having 'one of their own' elected e.g. East Belfast, Strangford, Lagan Valley, North Down.

[Evil Genius]

Trying to claim Alliance voters as unionist is grand except for a few points:

I don't think I did claim that AP voters were "Unionists", as such. Rather my point is that they must predomninantly come from a Unionist background. Which, combined with the fact that they are more middle-class and well-educated etc (i.e. more to lose in the "unknown"), means that in a UI referendum, I'm sure they would be more likely to vote "No" than "Yes". In that sense, they predominantly are "Unionists" (imo).

1. They themselves claim they are not unionist

Ah, the classic "Have Cake and Eat it" approach to politics. That is, the AP don't claim to be "Unionist", so as not to alienate Nationalists, just as they don't claim to be "Nationalist" in order not to alienate Unionists. Which is fair enough as the 'Party Line', except that I was referring to the people who vote  AP, not the party itself.
Anyhow, politicians and voters can claim whatever they like, can't they? For example, Gerry Adams tells us he was never in the IRA. Or you have, I think, denied being officially connected to SF, yet your "hilarious" anecdote about the Teacher and his quip about Ruane and Ritchie etc at the Polling Station the other day clearly implies that you were there on behalf of Sinn Fein.
"Tell me it ain't so, Donagh Ulick"

2. A disproportionate amount of their transfers go to nationalist candidates

I would be genuinely interested in the figures for that one. And when you say "Nationalists", do you mean both main Nationalist parties, of just one? For it is possible that moderate unionists (small "u") who already vote AP as first preference in overwhelmingly Unionist areas, don't see the point in transferring to DUP or UUP shoo-ins and so transfer to the SDLP?
After all, there is anecdotal evidence of Unionists in strong Nationalist areas being prepared to vote SDLP (Fitt, Hendron, Mallon, Ritchie etc) in order to keep out SF.

3. They are more likely to get elected in unionist areas as they will also have the support of nationalists who are in a minority and don't have a chance of having 'one of their own' elected e.g. East Belfast, Strangford, Lagan Valley, North Down.

There may be an element of that, but you're not trying to tell me that that accounts for the AP doing over 8 times better in Unionist-majority constituencies (i.e. 12.5% of the vote) than in Nationalist-majority constituencies (i.e. 1.5% of the vote)?

Surely a simpler answer is that Unionist-minded voters feel safer entrusting their vote to the AP, than do their Nationalist-minded counterparts, on the basis that the AP somehow feels  if not "British/Ulster/Staunch" etc, at least vaguely "Norn Iron"?

[Minder]

Padraic McCotter polled 1400 first preference votes for Eirigi in Upper Falls, that is a pretty strong showing I would have thought.

[Norf Tyrone]

Not a big political follower by have had a bit more interest in this election.

Early indications are that SDLP will have no seats in Strabane DC!

[Maguire01]

Not a big political follower by have had a bit more interest in this election.

Early indications are that SDLP will have no seats in Strabane DC!

Early indications wrong accoring to Twitter:
SDLP defeat IRSP for the final seat on #SDC11 by less than 1 vote #le11 #lg11

[ONeill]

Mary Kate didn't get in.

Politics is dead (ugly)

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

Not a big political follower by have had a bit more interest in this election.

Early indications are that SDLP will have no seats in Strabane DC!

Early indications wrong accoring to Twitter:
SDLP defeat IRSP for the final seat on #SDC11 by less than 1 vote #le11 #lg11

Yep, Paul Gallagher failed by half a vote apparently.

[The Worker]

lads whats the best twitter page to keep up to date with local election results?

[Minder]

Not a big political follower by have had a bit more interest in this election.

Early indications are that SDLP will have no seats in Strabane DC!

Early indications wrong accoring to Twitter:
SDLP defeat IRSP for the final seat on #SDC11 by less than 1 vote #le11 #lg11

Yep, Paul Gallagher failed by half a vote apparently.

Do small people only get half a vote, or how does it work?