A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[Snapchap]

So
We don't know what we want but Micheál Martin must deliver it.

By the way won't Harris be taking over as Taoiseach soon?

I see we're back to the straw men. You can never help yourself can you 😂 Where did I say we don't know what we want Micheal to deliver? Have I not said it repeatedly today?

I mean, I even said in my very last post what I want? Once more, just for you:

I would like Micheal Martin (he's the taoiseach as we speak, isn't he?) to commit the government to producing a plan for reunification in order to kick start a wider debate/process, as a plan produced by an Irish government is the only one that will carry ANY clout/weight/significance in terms of building momentum.

[MrsBinfield]

1 No clamour from the electorate. It's not a huge deal to the majority of people.

Whether it's a huge deal  or not in the south isn't really the point. Demographics in the north will dictate that a referendum is coming down the tracks. All responsible governments are supposed to plan decades in ahead. To refuse to plan ahead for what is an inevitable referendum, with an inevitable outcome, is negligence.

2 It's really difficult to navigate. This is like taking the eggs out of the omelette.

So would scottish independence have been. So was german reunification. So are lots of things. It's not really a good reason not to do it though.

3 When people get engaged in the details of this they realise that a 32 county republic really isn't in the cards and they don't want to be the politicians that break that news to the die hards.

'cept, it is on the cards. The north was a state designed along sectarian lines to ensure a permanent protestant majority. That majority no longer even exists. Reunification is just a matter of time. The unionist population is both older and declining, while the nationalist one is younger and growing, and the pace of both trajectories is increasing.

Some sympathy for your response to point 1.

Your response to point 2 could be valid if directed at everyone I.e. what has nobody done the ground work on what a United Ireland would look like?

But I think you are way off on point 3. I refer back to a post from yesterday but in summary its delusional to think that GFA was founded on power-sharing only when nationalism was in a minority and falls away completely when nationalism is in a minority. UK government control when a northern referendum is called. They and the co-signatories and guarantors will want to see how power is to be shared before starting the ball rolling. A 32 county unitary republic won't cut it. The work you are calling for now (and I don't think you are wrong to call for it) is to flesh out out this trick situation is unpicked. But if not unpicked then there is no referendum. No referendum means no "new Ireland" and telling people (especially the die hards) the truth about this isn't going to be popular.

Arguably your ire should be directed at the political leaders who are pretending that the path forward and the destination are the sunlit uplands.

None of this a defence of the Taoiseach.

[Rossfan]

The dual nationality provision in the GFA will remain for 6 Cos (born?) people.
So some kind of local body or autonomy will be required for that area.

What powers it might have....
Independent like Channel islands?
Lot of local powers like Scotland?
Very few powers other than education, car registration plates, Housing Executive, Planning Acts...

Most likely option 3.

Will the new Ireland be a Federal or Confederate State with 2 sub regions?
Will the new Ireland have an executive or figurehead President?
Will there be a joint Presidency, 1 elected separately in the 2 areas?

First ALL the pro UI parties
should be setting out their visions of the new Ireland.
Then convene some forum (like the New Ireland Forum 1980s) to tease out the practilities and see can a concensus be arrived at.
 

[Baile Brigín 2]

I think ultimately it will be 26 onto 6. There might be a devolved assembly, but it's a disaster so would it be a huge sticking point to bin it? The dual citizenship bit would be 99% in place already.

Reality is the 'pitch' would be the 6c experiment has failed, so why would you retain the fail? Migrate as much as possible to Dublin and protect minority rights. I can't see flags and anthems changing.

[Armagh18]

I think ultimately it will be 26 onto 6. There might be a devolved assembly, but it's a disaster so would it be a huge sticking point to bin it? The dual citizenship bit would be 99% in place already.

Reality is the 'pitch' would be the 6c experiment has failed, so why would you retain the fail? Migrate as much as possible to Dublin and protect minority rights. I can't see flags and anthems changing.

maybe be 2 flags and 2 anthems? Assembly surely not be that big a deal to anyone? It's not worth a shite.

[MrsBinfield]

I think ultimately it will be 26 onto 6. There might be a devolved assembly, but it's a disaster so would it be a huge sticking point to bin it? The dual citizenship bit would be 99% in place already.

Reality is the 'pitch' would be the 6c experiment has failed, so why would you retain the fail? Migrate as much as possible to Dublin and protect minority rights. I can't see flags and anthems changing.

Stormont is not performing but binning power sharing would be major issue. Put simply it won't happen. The referendum would never take place. There would be no new Ireland to bin it.

Put it another way. There is a referendum in the north and it votes 50.1% in favour of remaining in UK. If unionists tried to use that as a means of getting rid of powers sharing (for either simple majority rule or direct rule from Westminster) then the lawyers, signatories and guarantors would intervene and remind them of the GFA. If the vote went 50.1% the other way, all the same logic, and legal/constitutional clauses would still apply. The new Ireland will have to accommodate this. It's doable. A 32 county unitary republic is not. Real political leadership will be honest about this. Populists will tell people what they want to hear. Surely we are wise to the Trump and Farage ploys by now?

[Armagh18]

I think ultimately it will be 26 onto 6. There might be a devolved assembly, but it's a disaster so would it be a huge sticking point to bin it? The dual citizenship bit would be 99% in place already.

Reality is the 'pitch' would be the 6c experiment has failed, so why would you retain the fail? Migrate as much as possible to Dublin and protect minority rights. I can't see flags and anthems changing.

Stormont is not performing but binning power sharing would be major issue. Put simply it won't happen. The referendum would never take place. There would be no new Ireland to bin it.

Put it another way. There is a referendum in the north and it votes 50.1% in favour of remaining in UK. If unionists tried to use that as a means of getting rid of powers sharing (for either simple majority rule or direct rule from Westminster) then the lawyers, signatories and guarantors would intervene and remind them of the GFA. If the vote went 50.1% the other way, all the same logic, and legal/constitutional clauses would still apply. The new Ireland will have to accommodate this. It's doable. A 32 county unitary republic is not. Real political leadership will be honest about this. Populists will tell people what they want to hear. Surely we are wise to the Trump and Farage ploys by now?

Why bother with a border poll at all then

[MrsBinfield]

To determine whether NI (and its devolved power sharing assembly and its Executive) sit within Uk (or its successor) or A New Ireland.

Recent pages seem to about calling for the Taoiseach to put some flesh on the bones of both the path to get there and more importantly what the end product will look like/operate.

There is probably a misunderstanding by some that either the GFA doesn't exist, has an expiry date/event or can just be ignored. When we get around to putting the flesh on the bones, some will be disabused of these misunderstandings. That could turn ugly.

[Rossfan]

It won't be a case of incorporating the 6 into the 26.
It also won't be an extension of South Armagh across the other 31 and a half Counties.

[Baile Brigín 2]

I think ultimately it will be 26 onto 6. There might be a devolved assembly, but it's a disaster so would it be a huge sticking point to bin it? The dual citizenship bit would be 99% in place already.

Reality is the 'pitch' would be the 6c experiment has failed, so why would you retain the fail? Migrate as much as possible to Dublin and protect minority rights. I can't see flags and anthems changing.

Stormont is not performing but binning power sharing would be major issue. Put simply it won't happen. The referendum would never take place. There would be no new Ireland to bin it.

Put it another way. There is a referendum in the north and it votes 50.1% in favour of remaining in UK. If unionists tried to use that as a means of getting rid of powers sharing (for either simple majority rule or direct rule from Westminster) then the lawyers, signatories and guarantors would intervene and remind them of the GFA. If the vote went 50.1% the other way, all the same logic, and legal/constitutional clauses would still apply. The new Ireland will have to accommodate this. It's doable. A 32 county unitary republic is not. Real political leadership will be honest about this. Populists will tell people what they want to hear. Surely we are wise to the Trump and Farage ploys by now?

A vote on favour of the status quo retains the status quo. Stormont remains.

A vote for reunification doesn't necessarily keep stormont.

[Baile Brigín 2]

I think ultimately it will be 26 onto 6. There might be a devolved assembly, but it's a disaster so would it be a huge sticking point to bin it? The dual citizenship bit would be 99% in place already.

Reality is the 'pitch' would be the 6c experiment has failed, so why would you retain the fail? Migrate as much as possible to Dublin and protect minority rights. I can't see flags and anthems changing.

maybe be 2 flags and 2 anthems? Assembly surely not be that big a deal to anyone? It's not worth a shite.

2 anthems and flags? How does that work? Why would Dublin concede that?

[MrsBinfield]

I think ultimately it will be 26 onto 6. There might be a devolved assembly, but it's a disaster so would it be a huge sticking point to bin it? The dual citizenship bit would be 99% in place already.

Reality is the 'pitch' would be the 6c experiment has failed, so why would you retain the fail? Migrate as much as possible to Dublin and protect minority rights. I can't see flags and anthems changing.

maybe be 2 flags and 2 anthems? Assembly surely not be that big a deal to anyone? It's not worth a shite.

2 anthems and flags? How does that work? Why would Dublin concede that?

Who knows? I wouldn't prejudge what is going to be on offer. All we know at this stage is that whatever is on offer will have to pass 2 synchronous referenda and be consistent with the GFA. Snapchat's argument is that it is the role of the Taoiseach to set this out.

[MrsBinfield]

I think ultimately it will be 26 onto 6. There might be a devolved assembly, but it's a disaster so would it be a huge sticking point to bin it? The dual citizenship bit would be 99% in place already.

Reality is the 'pitch' would be the 6c experiment has failed, so why would you retain the fail? Migrate as much as possible to Dublin and protect minority rights. I can't see flags and anthems changing.

Stormont is not performing but binning power sharing would be major issue. Put simply it won't happen. The referendum would never take place. There would be no new Ireland to bin it.

Put it another way. There is a referendum in the north and it votes 50.1% in favour of remaining in UK. If unionists tried to use that as a means of getting rid of powers sharing (for either simple majority rule or direct rule from Westminster) then the lawyers, signatories and guarantors would intervene and remind them of the GFA. If the vote went 50.1% the other way, all the same logic, and legal/constitutional clauses would still apply. The new Ireland will have to accommodate this. It's doable. A 32 county unitary republic is not. Real political leadership will be honest about this. Populists will tell people what they want to hear. Surely we are wise to the Trump and Farage ploys by now?

A vote on favour of the status quo retains the status quo. Stormont remains.

A vote for reunification doesn't necessarily keep stormont.

I beg to differ. The GFA will have to be complied with. Not least because it is the means of getting the referendum in the first place.

I reiterate that this is possible to achieve and can be made to work. But powersharing in NI is an essential feature.

[Armagh18]

I think ultimately it will be 26 onto 6. There might be a devolved assembly, but it's a disaster so would it be a huge sticking point to bin it? The dual citizenship bit would be 99% in place already.

Reality is the 'pitch' would be the 6c experiment has failed, so why would you retain the fail? Migrate as much as possible to Dublin and protect minority rights. I can't see flags and anthems changing.

Stormont is not performing but binning power sharing would be major issue. Put simply it won't happen. The referendum would never take place. There would be no new Ireland to bin it.

Put it another way. There is a referendum in the north and it votes 50.1% in favour of remaining in UK. If unionists tried to use that as a means of getting rid of powers sharing (for either simple majority rule or direct rule from Westminster) then the lawyers, signatories and guarantors would intervene and remind them of the GFA. If the vote went 50.1% the other way, all the same logic, and legal/constitutional clauses would still apply. The new Ireland will have to accommodate this. It's doable. A 32 county unitary republic is not. Real political leadership will be honest about this. Populists will tell people what they want to hear. Surely we are wise to the Trump and Farage ploys by now?

A vote on favour of the status quo retains the status quo. Stormont remains.

A vote for reunification doesn't necessarily keep stormont.

I beg to differ. The GFA will have to be complied with. Not least because it is the means of getting the referendum in the first place.

I reiterate that this is possible to achieve and can be made to work. But powersharing in NI is an essential feature.

I don't think any nationalist will look twice at Stormont by then and it'll be largely irrelevant

[Rossfan]

And power sharing at National, or Federal or Confederate level?