Westminster General Election 2024

[Armagh18]

2 days out and the only leaflet I've got is from the Shinners themselves, havent had the usual avalanche of leaflets the post man brings every election time, is it as quiet elsewhere?

Same here and that was hand delivered.

[Hereiam]

Have had one leaflet from SF through the post but have not heard tell of anyone at the door, and just to add it has been a fair few years since any of them were at the door

[lurganblue]

The skit by Jonathan Pie as a summary of the consecutive Conservative governments is a thing of beauty. It's hilarious, but also infuriating.

[tiempo]

Voting Tory is worse than voting DUP

[Pub Bore]

It's been a low key campaign (at least where I live).  Ones to watch

North Down - Farry v Easton v Collins.  Easton and Collins both have had gaffes in their campaigns.  Farry just to hold on

FST - It's always going to be close - A couple of hundred votes could swing it either way.  Too close to call.

South Down - SF defending a majority of just 1,600.  SDLP running Colin McGrath, high profile and a decent media performer.  Hazzard used to have a profile but not so much since he went to Westminster.  I'm sticking my neck out here and going for the SDLP to nick this.

Foyle - Eastwood will not be beaten but it's a matter of how much SF reduce his 17,000 majority by.

South Antrim - Wee Robin Swann v the DUP.  Swann to win by a small margin.

East Belfast - Robinson to hold on.  Just my gut.

Lagan Valley - Buckley to spring a surprise and hold off Alliance.

As you were for the rest.

[Mourne Red]

It's been a low key campaign (at least where I live).  Ones to watch

North Down - Farry v Easton v Collins.  Easton and Collins both have had gaffes in their campaigns.  Farry just to hold on

FST - It's always going to be close - A couple of hundred votes could swing it either way.  Too close to call.

South Down - SF defending a majority of just 1,600.  SDLP running Colin McGrath, high profile and a decent media performer.  Hazzard used to have a profile but not so much since he went to Westminster.  I'm sticking my neck out here and going for the SDLP to nick this.

Foyle - Eastwood will not be beaten but it's a matter of how much SF reduce his 17,000 majority by.

South Antrim - Wee Robin Swann v the DUP.  Swann to win by a small margin.

East Belfast - Robinson to hold on.  Just my gut.

Lagan Valley - Buckley to spring a surprise and hold off Alliance.

As you were for the rest.

SF got 24k First preference Votes in South Down in Stormont elections where SDLP got 9k I don't think SDLP have a hope of winning South Down.

[NAG1]

Will take a massive DUP turn out in the East I would think to get Robinson in.
Ever changing demographic on that side of the city.

[johnnycool]

It's been a low key campaign (at least where I live).  Ones to watch

North Down - Farry v Easton v Collins.  Easton and Collins both have had gaffes in their campaigns.  Farry just to hold on

FST - It's always going to be close - A couple of hundred votes could swing it either way.  Too close to call.

South Down - SF defending a majority of just 1,600.  SDLP running Colin McGrath, high profile and a decent media performer.  Hazzard used to have a profile but not so much since he went to Westminster.  I'm sticking my neck out here and going for the SDLP to nick this.

Foyle - Eastwood will not be beaten but it's a matter of how much SF reduce his 17,000 majority by.

South Antrim - Wee Robin Swann v the DUP.  Swann to win by a small margin.

East Belfast - Robinson to hold on.  Just my gut.

Lagan Valley - Buckley to spring a surprise and hold off Alliance.

As you were for the rest.

If Alliance had of put up someone of substance in Strangford they were in with a shout of unseating that moron Jim Shannon due to the boundary changes.

I might still have to vote for her whoever she is just in the hope that she does do it.

FPTP is feckin depressing when you're surrounded by band loving, bone fire building retrobates.

If Labour do get this big majority I really hope they do bring in PR to really f**k the Tories over once and for all.

[Rossfan]

They won't because it would hurt them in the future.
On my recent trip to Omagh I was surprised to see so few posters, 4 I think, along the way.

[johnnycool]

They won't because it would hurt them in the future.
On my recent trip to Omagh I was surprised to see so few posters, 4 I think, along the way.

How would it?

This "super" majority that's meant to be happening tomorrow is as much about how shíte the Tory's are as much as how good Labour may be.

Over the timeline of British democracy the Labour party has not been in power very much, PR could well change that for the longer term.

[burdizzo]

They won't because it would hurt them in the future.
On my recent trip to Omagh I was surprised to see so few posters, 4 I think, along the way.

How would it?

This "super" majority that's meant to be happening tomorrow is as much about how shíte the Tory's are as much as how good Labour may be.

Over the timeline of British democracy the Labour party has not been in power very much, PR could well change that for the longer term.

First past the post suits the big parties. Didn't Labour oppose the change to P.R. in the referendum they had a few years ago? I see no reason for them to hand over the advantage they'll get with a huge majority. It's also the reason the likes of Reform, Greens, even Lib Dems, don't generally win that many seats.

[johnnycool]

They won't because it would hurt them in the future.
On my recent trip to Omagh I was surprised to see so few posters, 4 I think, along the way.

How would it?

This "super" majority that's meant to be happening tomorrow is as much about how shíte the Tory's are as much as how good Labour may be.

Over the timeline of British democracy the Labour party has not been in power very much, PR could well change that for the longer term.

First past the post suits the big parties. Didn't Labour oppose the change to P.R. in the referendum they had a few years ago? I see no reason for them to hand over the advantage they'll get with a huge majority. It's also the reason the likes of Reform, Greens, even Lib Dems, don't generally win that many seats.

That was some hybrid PR shít that the Tory's concocted with the Lib Dems and was never going to pass but was enough for the Lib dems to tick a box in their manifesto under the Cameron/Clegg Government.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

It's been a low key campaign (at least where I live).  Ones to watch

North Down - Farry v Easton v Collins.  Easton and Collins both have had gaffes in their campaigns.  Farry just to hold on

FST - It's always going to be close - A couple of hundred votes could swing it either way.  Too close to call.

South Down - SF defending a majority of just 1,600.  SDLP running Colin McGrath, high profile and a decent media performer.  Hazzard used to have a profile but not so much since he went to Westminster.  I'm sticking my neck out here and going for the SDLP to nick this.

Foyle - Eastwood will not be beaten but it's a matter of how much SF reduce his 17,000 majority by.

South Antrim - Wee Robin Swann v the DUP.  Swann to win by a small margin.

East Belfast - Robinson to hold on.  Just my gut.

Lagan Valley - Buckley to spring a surprise and hold off Alliance.

As you were for the rest.

If Alliance had of put up someone of substance in Strangford they were in with a shout of unseating that moron Jim Shannon due to the boundary changes.

I might still have to vote for her whoever she is just in the hope that she does do it.

FPTP is feckin depressing when you're surrounded by band loving, bone fire building retrobates.

If Labour do get this big majority I really hope they do bring in PR to really f**k the Tories over once and for all.

East Antrim too. A chance to scare that twit Sammy. Alliance don't seem to have the resources to go for it in multiple constituencies. SF seem anonymous, I know they reckon they will hold their 7 seats without too much drama but their vote share will be well down. A real chance to kick the DUP and all the parties seem to be letting it pass

[Pub Bore]

It's been a low key campaign (at least where I live).  Ones to watch

North Down - Farry v Easton v Collins.  Easton and Collins both have had gaffes in their campaigns.  Farry just to hold on

FST - It's always going to be close - A couple of hundred votes could swing it either way.  Too close to call.

South Down - SF defending a majority of just 1,600.  SDLP running Colin McGrath, high profile and a decent media performer.  Hazzard used to have a profile but not so much since he went to Westminster.  I'm sticking my neck out here and going for the SDLP to nick this.

Foyle - Eastwood will not be beaten but it's a matter of how much SF reduce his 17,000 majority by.

South Antrim - Wee Robin Swann v the DUP.  Swann to win by a small margin.

East Belfast - Robinson to hold on.  Just my gut.

Lagan Valley - Buckley to spring a surprise and hold off Alliance.

As you were for the rest.

If Alliance had of put up someone of substance in Strangford they were in with a shout of unseating that moron Jim Shannon due to the boundary changes.

I might still have to vote for her whoever she is just in the hope that she does do it.

FPTP is feckin depressing when you're surrounded by band loving, bone fire building retrobates.

If Labour do get this big majority I really hope they do bring in PR to really f**k the Tories over once and for all.

East Antrim too. A chance to scare that twit Sammy. Alliance don't seem to have the resources to go for it in multiple constituencies. SF seem anonymous, I know they reckon they will hold their 7 seats without too much drama but their vote share will be well down. A real chance to kick the DUP and all the parties seem to be letting it pass

SF's vote share in 2019 was 22.8% - the polls have them on course for something similar.  They're not standing in every constituency so the share won't be as big as Assembly or Council elections.  Anyway in FPTP vote share isn't as important as the number of seats you win.  In 2017 SF's vote share was 29.4% and they got 7 seats, same as 2019.

[Pub Bore]

Voted on my way into work this morning.  Very quiet at about 8:15am.