Westminster General Election 2024

[RedHand88]

Am I the only one who thinks this will be alot closer than what people think?
I'm just thinking of 2019 and the echo chamber on Twitter. There was speculation it could be no overall majority like 2017 (was 9/4 with the bookies) and the Tories ended up with a majority of 80!

[lurganblue]

I've no doubt that the gap will close the closer it gets to the GE. Those usual Tory voters will get itchy feet and the media will find some mud to sling at Labour.

[thewobbler]

Am I the only one who thinks this will be alot closer than what people think?
I'm just thinking of 2019 and the echo chamber on Twitter. There was speculation it could be no overall majority like 2017 (was 9/4 with the bookies) and the Tories ended up with a majority of 80!

I think there's going to be a complete obliteration, and we are unlikely the see the Tories contend for power again until the 2040s.

The parties themselves know it. The MSM know it. Twitter is now just polarised opinions instead of one way opinions, and isn't relevant.

It's a formality.

The key outcome in our futures isn't the result of this election, but when (if) Labour begin to implement socialist policies. I'd prefer they want hard and quick at it, but a slow bleed over the next decade  is the more prudent approach in a country that innately is not socialist.

[NAG1]

Am I the only one who thinks this will be alot closer than what people think?
I'm just thinking of 2019 and the echo chamber on Twitter. There was speculation it could be no overall majority like 2017 (was 9/4 with the bookies) and the Tories ended up with a majority of 80!

I think there's going to be a complete obliteration, and we are unlikely the see the Tories contend for power again until the 2040s.

The parties themselves know it. The MSM know it. Twitter is now just polarised opinions instead of one way opinions, and isn't relevant.

It's a formality.

The key outcome in our futures isn't the result of this election, but when (if) Labour begin to implement socialist policies. I'd prefer they want hard and quick at it, but a slow bleed over the next decade  is the more prudent approach in a country that innately is not socialist.

If you are expecting any socialist policies from Starmer you are going to be waiting a while.

[armaghniac]

Am I the only one who thinks this will be alot closer than what people think?
I'm just thinking of 2019 and the echo chamber on Twitter. There was speculation it could be no overall majority like 2017 (was 9/4 with the bookies) and the Tories ended up with a majority of 80!

I think there's going to be a complete obliteration, and we are unlikely the see the Tories contend for power again until the 2040s.

The parties themselves know it. The MSM know it. Twitter is now just polarised opinions instead of one way opinions, and isn't relevant.

It's a formality.

The key outcome in our futures isn't the result of this election, but when (if) Labour begin to implement socialist policies. I'd prefer they want hard and quick at it, but a slow bleed over the next decade  is the more prudent approach in a country that innately is not socialist.

There isn't much money in the kitty and any plan to borrow excessively will run into the same problems that Truss faced. Rapid change is probably impossible.

If you are expecting any socialist policies from Starmer you are going to be waiting a while.

Adult policies would be good for a start.

[bennydorano]

The gap will narrow as we near polling day, it can't widen. The broadsheets are already wheeling out mildly anti Labour guff daily, its drip feed messaging. I'd love to see the Tories obliterated and with Reform coming from the opposite  end it could happen. I wouldn't be surprised if we ultimately end up in hung parliament territory tbh.

[armaghniac]

The gap will narrow as we near polling day, it can't widen. The broadsheets are already wheeling out mildly anti Labour guff daily, its drip feed messaging. I'd love to see the Tories obliterated and with Reform coming from the opposite  end it could happen. I wouldn't be surprised if we ultimately end up in hung parliament territory tbh.

Given that Labour seem likely to win some Scottish seats then I do not anticipate a hung parliament, although the Labour majority may be reduced.

[smelmoth]

What ever about the local politicians running for Westminster - the only real interest I have in that is the nationalist v unionist count at the end of it. An increase in the number of nationalists might nudge us further towards a border poll.

It feels inevitable that the Tories are going to lose in a landslide Labour victory and as much as I want to see that, I can't help but feel Starmer is not going to change much. I'm not a fan of his. It's such a pity Labour aren't going in with a Corbyn-esque leader who I think would do some real good. I know he wasn't everyone's cup of tea, but I think he was honest and had the good of all people at heart.

Starmer is the continuity candidate.

Starmer is basically a tory

That really is lazy analysis.

What has defined the 14 years of the Tories in government? How much of that overlaps with Starmer.

The Tories took us out of Europe. Would Starmer have done that?

The Tories have fixated on immigration. Has Starmer?
The Tories have dreamed up bullshit, red meat policies like Rwanda. Has Starmer? Will he back out of the Tory mess?
The Tories are obsessed with Culture Wars and "anti-woke". Has Starmer stoked those issues?
The Tories brought us austerity. As tight as the fiscal situation is, there is no prospect of Osborne era austerity.
The Tories have cosied up to Meloni, Orban etc. No indication or even prospect of Starmer doing likewise.
The big issue of our time is what the Tories are describing as "the green crap". Starmer is miles ahead of the Tories on this.

I don't think anyone even believes that there is a significant overlap between Labour and the Tories on these issues.

Is the Starmer-is-a-Tory trope really just a dissatisfaction with his stance on Gaza? Or is it the failure to recognise that whilst in "ming vase" mode Labour are highlighting the economic shitshow they will inherit and dampening down expectations of what they can achieve, and more importantly, how quickly?

Maybe it's easier not to think about these things and roll out the lazy analysis?

[Deerstalker]

It's usually from Corbyn supporters, but as you say not grounded in any reality

[Brendan]

The Tories have moved so far to the right to combat UKIP and now Reform growthbin popularity, Labour are following them in the drift right instead of sticking to what should be their principles

[tonto1888]

What ever about the local politicians running for Westminster - the only real interest I have in that is the nationalist v unionist count at the end of it. An increase in the number of nationalists might nudge us further towards a border poll.

It feels inevitable that the Tories are going to lose in a landslide Labour victory and as much as I want to see that, I can't help but feel Starmer is not going to change much. I'm not a fan of his. It's such a pity Labour aren't going in with a Corbyn-esque leader who I think would do some real good. I know he wasn't everyone's cup of tea, but I think he was honest and had the good of all people at heart.

Starmer is the continuity candidate.

Starmer is basically a tory

That really is lazy analysis.

What has defined the 14 years of the Tories in government? How much of that overlaps with Starmer.

The Tories took us out of Europe. Would Starmer have done that?

The Tories have fixated on immigration. Has Starmer?
The Tories have dreamed up bullshit, red meat policies like Rwanda. Has Starmer? Will he back out of the Tory mess?
The Tories are obsessed with Culture Wars and "anti-woke". Has Starmer stoked those issues?
The Tories brought us austerity. As tight as the fiscal situation is, there is no prospect of Osborne era austerity.
The Tories have cosied up to Meloni, Orban etc. No indication or even prospect of Starmer doing likewise.
The big issue of our time is what the Tories are describing as "the green crap". Starmer is miles ahead of the Tories on this.

I don't think anyone even believes that there is a significant overlap between Labour and the Tories on these issues.

Is the Starmer-is-a-Tory trope really just a dissatisfaction with his stance on Gaza? Or is it the failure to recognise that whilst in "ming vase" mode Labour are highlighting the economic shitshow they will inherit and dampening down expectations of what they can achieve, and more importantly, how quickly?

Maybe it's easier not to think about these things and roll out the lazy analysis?

https://www.ft.com/content/f7394525-76a1-462c-a6e5-fe8273df4f7f

he is a tory

Nothing to do with his stance on Palestine - which I am not a fan of.

The IMA isnt the worst piece of legislation/policy. Starmer has highlighted immigration as a matter of serious concern also.

It may not be the most insightful piece of political analysis to be honest but it's how I feel about him.

[smelmoth]

The Tories have moved so far to the right to combat UKIP and now Reform growthbin popularity, Labour are following them in the drift right instead of sticking to what should be their principles

In what way? Economics? Social Policy?

The only I can think off is the 2 child cap. Something I think Labour will address but not straight away and possibly not quick enough.

I'm fairly confident that Labour just want to get over the line and get into office and then get on with fixing things. I'm braced for the frustration at how long it will take to fix everything. But better that, than another campaign where the right wing press just lampoon Labour and we end up with a Tory-led government that not only don't fix things but are happy to let them deteriorate???

[smelmoth]

What ever about the local politicians running for Westminster - the only real interest I have in that is the nationalist v unionist count at the end of it. An increase in the number of nationalists might nudge us further towards a border poll.

It feels inevitable that the Tories are going to lose in a landslide Labour victory and as much as I want to see that, I can't help but feel Starmer is not going to change much. I'm not a fan of his. It's such a pity Labour aren't going in with a Corbyn-esque leader who I think would do some real good. I know he wasn't everyone's cup of tea, but I think he was honest and had the good of all people at heart.

Starmer is the continuity candidate.

Starmer is basically a tory

That really is lazy analysis.

What has defined the 14 years of the Tories in government? How much of that overlaps with Starmer.

The Tories took us out of Europe. Would Starmer have done that?

The Tories have fixated on immigration. Has Starmer?
The Tories have dreamed up bullshit, red meat policies like Rwanda. Has Starmer? Will he back out of the Tory mess?
The Tories are obsessed with Culture Wars and "anti-woke". Has Starmer stoked those issues?
The Tories brought us austerity. As tight as the fiscal situation is, there is no prospect of Osborne era austerity.
The Tories have cosied up to Meloni, Orban etc. No indication or even prospect of Starmer doing likewise.
The big issue of our time is what the Tories are describing as "the green crap". Starmer is miles ahead of the Tories on this.

I don't think anyone even believes that there is a significant overlap between Labour and the Tories on these issues.

Is the Starmer-is-a-Tory trope really just a dissatisfaction with his stance on Gaza? Or is it the failure to recognise that whilst in "ming vase" mode Labour are highlighting the economic shitshow they will inherit and dampening down expectations of what they can achieve, and more importantly, how quickly?

Maybe it's easier not to think about these things and roll out the lazy analysis?

https://www.ft.com/content/f7394525-76a1-462c-a6e5-fe8273df4f7f

he is a tory

Nothing to do with his stance on Palestine - which I am not a fan of.

The IMA isnt the worst piece of legislation/policy. Starmer has highlighted immigration as a matter of serious concern also.

It may not be the most insightful piece of political analysis to be honest but it's how I feel about him.

Tony Benn used to praise Thathcher for being a sign post rather than a weather vane ie she stuck to her guns. He wasn't praising the policy. Benn wasn't a Tory. Most have the wit to work that out.


Starmer once says Thatcher has the mission and the plan to get things done ie the same argument that Benn made hundreds of times over 20+ years and that makes him a Tory. That would fly in the face of all logic.

[tonto1888]

What ever about the local politicians running for Westminster - the only real interest I have in that is the nationalist v unionist count at the end of it. An increase in the number of nationalists might nudge us further towards a border poll.

It feels inevitable that the Tories are going to lose in a landslide Labour victory and as much as I want to see that, I can't help but feel Starmer is not going to change much. I'm not a fan of his. It's such a pity Labour aren't going in with a Corbyn-esque leader who I think would do some real good. I know he wasn't everyone's cup of tea, but I think he was honest and had the good of all people at heart.

Starmer is the continuity candidate.

Starmer is basically a tory

That really is lazy analysis.

What has defined the 14 years of the Tories in government? How much of that overlaps with Starmer.

The Tories took us out of Europe. Would Starmer have done that?

The Tories have fixated on immigration. Has Starmer?
The Tories have dreamed up bullshit, red meat policies like Rwanda. Has Starmer? Will he back out of the Tory mess?
The Tories are obsessed with Culture Wars and "anti-woke". Has Starmer stoked those issues?
The Tories brought us austerity. As tight as the fiscal situation is, there is no prospect of Osborne era austerity.
The Tories have cosied up to Meloni, Orban etc. No indication or even prospect of Starmer doing likewise.
The big issue of our time is what the Tories are describing as "the green crap". Starmer is miles ahead of the Tories on this.

I don't think anyone even believes that there is a significant overlap between Labour and the Tories on these issues.

Is the Starmer-is-a-Tory trope really just a dissatisfaction with his stance on Gaza? Or is it the failure to recognise that whilst in "ming vase" mode Labour are highlighting the economic shitshow they will inherit and dampening down expectations of what they can achieve, and more importantly, how quickly?

Maybe it's easier not to think about these things and roll out the lazy analysis?

https://www.ft.com/content/f7394525-76a1-462c-a6e5-fe8273df4f7f

he is a tory

Nothing to do with his stance on Palestine - which I am not a fan of.

The IMA isnt the worst piece of legislation/policy. Starmer has highlighted immigration as a matter of serious concern also.

It may not be the most insightful piece of political analysis to be honest but it's how I feel about him.

Tony Benn used to praise Thathcher for being a sign post rather than a weather vane ie she stuck to her guns. He wasn't praising the policy. Benn wasn't a Tory. Most have the wit to work that out.


Starmer once says Thatcher has the mission and the plan to get things done ie the same argument that Benn made hundreds of times over 20+ years and that makes him a Tory. That would fly in the face of all logic.

I appreciate the lesson and the much more in depth analysis. Suffice to say I just dont like him. I dont like how he back stabbed Corbyn. I dont like how he seems to be eroding the left wing nature of the LP and how he looks to be pandering to Tory voters in order to win.
If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck and all that

[Franko]

What ever about the local politicians running for Westminster - the only real interest I have in that is the nationalist v unionist count at the end of it. An increase in the number of nationalists might nudge us further towards a border poll.

It feels inevitable that the Tories are going to lose in a landslide Labour victory and as much as I want to see that, I can't help but feel Starmer is not going to change much. I'm not a fan of his. It's such a pity Labour aren't going in with a Corbyn-esque leader who I think would do some real good. I know he wasn't everyone's cup of tea, but I think he was honest and had the good of all people at heart.

Starmer is the continuity candidate.

Starmer is basically a tory

That really is lazy analysis.

What has defined the 14 years of the Tories in government? How much of that overlaps with Starmer.

The Tories took us out of Europe. Would Starmer have done that?

The Tories have fixated on immigration. Has Starmer?
The Tories have dreamed up bullshit, red meat policies like Rwanda. Has Starmer? Will he back out of the Tory mess?
The Tories are obsessed with Culture Wars and "anti-woke". Has Starmer stoked those issues?
The Tories brought us austerity. As tight as the fiscal situation is, there is no prospect of Osborne era austerity.
The Tories have cosied up to Meloni, Orban etc. No indication or even prospect of Starmer doing likewise.
The big issue of our time is what the Tories are describing as "the green crap". Starmer is miles ahead of the Tories on this.

I don't think anyone even believes that there is a significant overlap between Labour and the Tories on these issues.

Is the Starmer-is-a-Tory trope really just a dissatisfaction with his stance on Gaza? Or is it the failure to recognise that whilst in "ming vase" mode Labour are highlighting the economic shitshow they will inherit and dampening down expectations of what they can achieve, and more importantly, how quickly?

Maybe it's easier not to think about these things and roll out the lazy analysis?

This post is incredibly illustrative of the shift in the overton window that's occurred in British politics.

IMO Starmer is further to the right on most issues than Blair, which would put him very close to 'normal' Tory territory

This breed of Tories are so far to the right that they make every previous Tory leader (apart from Thatcher) looks like a bleeding heart leftie