Long Kesh Park takes another step forward

[Evil Genius]

Just thought I'd let you know,Professor Mike Smyth is a former Armagh Hurler. He of all people should know the dangers to Gaels of siting a stadium anywhere in Belfast outwith the nationalist West.

He wasn't asked where in Belfast a stadium for Gaelic fans should be sited, even though there already is a stadium in the obvious location.

Rather, he was asked where a multi-sport stadium for NI should be sited, and his opinion is that if it is at the Maze, it will be another Millennium Dome (i.e. fiasco).

Not only that, but he and his fellow authors estoimate that a "lost-opportunity" cost of £500 million (i.e. for redevelopment for much-needed housing) should be added to the actual construction and infrastructure costs of the stadium.

At this rate, the whole bloody thing is going to end up costing all of us more than the new Wembley! 

[GweylTah]

Time for this nonsense to stop and for Poots to be removed from this issue - if he doesn't see sense, there WILL be a legal challenge over his conflict of interest.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/article2682612.ece

£550m stadium gamble
Maze blueprint 'flawed' according to new report
Wednesday, June 20, 2007

By David Gordon

Controversial plans for a new sports stadium at the former Maze Prison site will involve the Government handing over land worth up to £547.5m to a private developer, a group of academics claimed today.


The figure is quoted in a University of Ulster study - commissioned by Belfast City Council - that brands the Maze blueprint "flawed" and argues for a Belfast location for a stadium.

The authors also stated that up to 1,000 new homes could be permitted within the 365-acre ex-prison site, making it a much more lucrative deal for a developer.

Belfast Council is at the forefront of the anti-Maze lobby and is hoping an eleventh hour rethink by the Government will lead to alternative locations within the city being re-examined.

As expected, the university study published today has come down in favour of an "in-town" location for a new stadium, claiming this would secure significantly greater economic benefits in terms of tourism, investment and regeneration.

It backed a 20,000-30,000 seater development within Belfast that would be " built to be filled and used frequently".

The newly-published UU report also stated that the blueprint for the Maze area would involve the entire 365 acres being handed over to a private developer.

It said this land is worth an estimated £365m but zoning for new homes within the site could be increased from its present level of 200 to 1,000, potentially pushing the value up to £547.5m.

The UU report claimed it was "open to question" whether "such a potentially large contribution from the public purse" could be justified "at a time of mounting public expenditure constraint".

Commenting on the £547.5m handover figure, co-author and well-known economist Mike Smyth said: "You have to start with the question why would a developer be so bullish and so willing to undertake a fairly substantial commercial risk with this.

"The answer is that he or she is expects a pay back on their initial outlay.

"It has to be something of that order to make the investment and the risk pay back."

He also said: "We are going into a period when we don't have as much money and if we are contemplating free care for the elderly, if we are contemplating following Scotland in reducing university fees for Northern Ireland students where will that money come from and between a third and half a billion pounds would be very useful."

Belfast City Council has been pushing Ormeau Park as an alternative location.

Council leisure committee chairman Bob Stoker said: "Belfast was never properly considered the first time round and the report provides irrefutable independent evidence of the need to go back to the drawing board."

The Stormont executive is expected to take a final decision on the stadium in the autumn. Sports Minister Edwin Poots has given no indication that he intends to overturn the direct rule decision in favour of the Maze.

Mr Poots, whose constituency includes the ex-prison site, yesterday accused Belfast Council of "bombast and bluster" on the issue and said it has until the end of this month to table a detailed city centre stadium plan.

The Minister also said: "A multi-sports stadium must be delivered to meet the 2012 Olympics timetable, it must be supported by the governing bodies of the relevant sports, be economically viable and be consistent with government's wider objectives of a shared future."

Government sources were today describing the findings of the University report as predictable.

It was also being stated that a developer of an Ormeau Park stadium would require the high-value Maysfield Leisure Centre site as part of the deal.

[T Fearon]

End the debate. The GAA, Ulster Rugby and even the monocultural IFA have agreed unanimously in principle on the Long Kesh site. End of story, let the bulldozers bulldoze anon. Do not spoil this unprecedented agreement and let those in OWC who wish to live in the past stay there

[Evil Genius]

Surely the cost of land on Ormeau would be more than the cost of land at Maze?

Not so, in fact nothing like it. Land only has value if you can do something with it. There is no reason why (much needed) housing can't be built at the Maze, giving a development value estimated in this Report of £500 million. Otherwise, when HMG "gifted" this site to NI, that is how much we all forego if they don't build houses on it. And that is before we pick up the tab for building a £100 m+ stadium, instead.

Re. Ormeau, obviously being in Belfast, the land would have greater value, but ONLY if it was possible to develop it commercially, which it is NOT, since BCC would NEVER get planning permission to do so.

However, PP is likely to be more forthcoming if they can demonstrate a switch of use from one Leisure purpose (parkland), to another leisure purpose (multi-sports stadium), especially if the social necessity of a sewage upgrade along the site were not affected.

[Evil Genius]

End the debate.

That's right, end the debate before everybody realises what a bad idea it is to give away a site with a development value of £547 million for the building of 1,000 houses, in order to  build a sports stadium instead, which an independent Report tells us is will be another Millennium Dome unless built in an in-town location.

And that's before the Government spunks another £100m+ up the wall in actually building the bloody thing, plus associated motorway upgrades! 

Tell me, what have you got against selling the Maze site for development, using £400 million for schools, housing and hospitals etc and dividing the remaining £100 million amongst the three sports, for them to do with what they wish?

That way, with its share the GAA could e.g. improve/enlarge Casement or other NI venues, whilst continuing to play their big Ulster games VAT-free at Clones or Croke, all without having to pay a penny rent to the Government for the Maze.

That would also leave enough for soccer to buy themselves out of their Lease with Linfield and either purchase and redevelop Windsor or move into Ormeau Park.

And I don't see Ulster rugby being too unhappy at receiving an extra few million quid of a windfall, either, seeing as they have never shown any enthusiasm for the Maze and will not play more than one or two matches (max) there, should it ever be built.

[snatter]

UUJ report just published online:

http://www.publicaffairs.ulster.ac.uk/podcasts/STADIUMBCC.pdf

I think its a good idea if everybody gets stuck into it to establish what weighting has been given to GAA, ie by far the most attended spectator sport in NI.


To repeat, here are some initial questions:

Point 1:

Any mention in this report of the value of land at Ormeau Park proposed to be given to a different private developer for a soccer only facility?

Point 2:

I must admit to be suprised at the suggested 30k cap on capacity.
Did Mike Smith look at GAA attendance figures like those posted earlier in the thread for 2005?
Surely they justify a greater capacity than 30k.
The GAA top brass have conssitently said we need a 40k caacity.
This has been independently verified as sensible by the department of economics at Uninversity College Cork. Link to their full analysis to follow.
Surely the GAA must reply to this report asap to assert that we need a 40k + capacity.
Can UCC economists stan up to the UUJ economist? Who's rioght in the battle of ecademics?

Point 3:

Did the report study the geographic origin of fans travelling to any proposed stadium?
Again looking at 2005 attendance figues, it's clear that the vast majority of fans would come from the south and west of Ulster to watch gaelic football.
For this vast majority, travelling to the maze is more convenient and offers less congestion for both the M1 and Belfast on match days.

Point 4:

The OWC crowd here reckon that their natural support base is about 25k (latest estimate from SammyG).
A 30k stadium would leave only a 5k capacity for away fans, as oppsed to 10k under the current Maze plan.
Surely halving the number of away fans totally wipes out half the benefit of the much hyped tourist benefit to the local economy.
Would NI PLC not be better off with 10k international visitors to the Maze than 5k to some Belfast stadium?


Feel free to add more.

[T Fearon]

Complete rubbish by economists who (like all economists) like in a virtual world far divorced from reality.

The North of Ireland soccer team's support varies between 5,000 and 15,000 (ie it will be heading in the 5000 direction once again after the forthcoming defeats by Iceland, Spain and Sweden).

Anyone knows that a stadium at the Maze is the answer, with convenient access to mhe motorway and rail links and a 42,000 capacity could attract Irish Rugby internationals as well as GAA AI Quarter Finals etc, not to mention rock concerts, Papal Visits, Special Olympics and the like

[his holiness nb]

Papal visits? Jaysus Tony dont get them riled!!!

they will of course say they have no problem with this 

[snatter]

UUJ report just published online:

http://www.publicaffairs.ulster.ac.uk/podcasts/STADIUMBCC.pdf

I think its a good idea if everybody gets stuck into it to establish what weighting has been given to GAA, ie by far the most attended spectator sport in NI.


To repeat, here are some initial questions:

Point 1:

Any mention in this report of the value of land at Ormeau Park proposed to be given to a different private developer for a soccer only facility?

Point 2:

I must admit to be suprised at the suggested 30k cap on capacity.
Did Mike Smith look at GAA attendance figures like those posted earlier in the thread for 2005?
Surely they justify a greater capacity than 30k.
The GAA top brass have conssitently said we need a 40k caacity.
This has been independently verified as sensible by the department of economics at Uninversity College Cork. Link to their full analysis to follow.
Surely the GAA must reply to this report asap to assert that we need a 40k + capacity.
Can UCC economists stan up to the UUJ economist? Who's rioght in the battle of ecademics?

Point 3:

Did the report study the geographic origin of fans travelling to any proposed stadium?
Again looking at 2005 attendance figues, it's clear that the vast majority of fans would come from the south and west of Ulster to watch gaelic football.
For this vast majority, travelling to the maze is more convenient and offers less congestion for both the M1 and Belfast on match days.

Point 4:

The OWC crowd here reckon that their natural support base is about 25k (latest estimate from SammyG).
A 30k stadium would leave only a 5k capacity for away fans, as oppsed to 10k under the current Maze plan.
Surely halving the number of away fans totally wipes out half the benefit of the much hyped tourist benefit to the local economy.
Would NI PLC not be better off with 10k international visitors to the Maze than 5k to some Belfast stadium?


Feel free to add more.

All,

this report is nothing more than appallingly unbalanced pro Belfast proaganda.
Don't give it any credence whatsoever.

It practically ignores the issues of Northern Ireland's political geography and instead says (section 7.4) that NI should just do what is done elsewhere.
It admits that all three sports can't co-exist in Belfast (section 7.4) , then recommends that the stadium be put there anyway.
Ie, a de facto exclusion of the GAA.


It conveniently ignores real actual GAA attendance figures whilst hypothesing on what crowds might attend a match at a stadium.
Looking at international figures and NI's population, it calulates 30k.
Sorry, but international figures don't to take into account the incredibly high per capita turnout of GAA fans.
It ignores real attendace figures at GAA matches regulary topping 30k by some margin. See earlier posts in this thread for 2005 GAA figures.

It states boldly (section 6.2) that the GAA has no need for a new stadium , despite the GAA Strategic Review identifying exactly the opposite.
The Srategic Review was published 2 years ago and the projected 40k Ulster stadium was endorsed by UCC economists.
Two years is surely enough time for them to have read the SR report and UCC analysis.

The spatial analysis (section 5, 5.3 theme 3) focuses in on public transport, emphasising the better public transport facilities of Belfast.
Amazingly, it makes no attempt at looking at the mode of travel that spectators would actually use in getting to the stadium.
Again looking at the 2005 Attendance figures I posted earlier in teh thread, it doesn't take a phd to work out that most users of the stadium would be GAA fans, and by virtue of having no alternative, will travel by car. Tubes , trains, trams and river boat are of no use if you're coming from Lisbellaw, Derrytrasna, Strabane, Kilkeel, wherever.

I hope some of the Irish News journos  / contributors get stuck into it straight away.
It's really lazy and onesided. A case of telling their customer (BCC) what it wants to hear.

[GweylTah]

Panic is spreading .... people are onto this Millennium-Dome-In-Waiting.

Where's the Northern Mary Harney to knock sense into people like Poots and his dim-witted, subservient, good-at-spending-taxpayers-money civil servant allies, and scrap this spend-thrifters jamboree?

[snatter]

Panic is spreading .... people are onto this Millennium-Dome-In-Waiting.

Where's the Northern Mary Harney to knock sense into people like Poots and his dim-witted, subservient, good-at-spending-taxpayers-money civil servant allies, and scrap this spend-thrifters jamboree?

No panic here. Just analysis of the facts.

You could do worse than try to read the report yourself, or even reply to some of the actual points being made in this thread.

[Evil Genius]

UUJ report just published online:

http://www.publicaffairs.ulster.ac.uk/podcasts/STADIUMBCC.pdf

I think its a good idea if everybody gets stuck into it to establish what weighting has been given to GAA, ie by far the most attended spectator sport in NI.


To repeat, here are some initial questions:

Point 1:

Any mention in this report of the value of land at Ormeau Park proposed to be given to a different private developer for a soccer only facility?

Point 2:

I must admit to be suprised at the suggested 30k cap on capacity.
Did Mike Smith look at GAA attendance figures like those posted earlier in the thread for 2005?
Surely they justify a greater capacity than 30k.
The GAA top brass have conssitently said we need a 40k caacity.
This has been independently verified as sensible by the department of economics at Uninversity College Cork. Link to their full analysis to follow.
Surely the GAA must reply to this report asap to assert that we need a 40k + capacity.
Can UCC economists stan up to the UUJ economist? Who's rioght in the battle of ecademics?

Point 3:

Did the report study the geographic origin of fans travelling to any proposed stadium?
Again looking at 2005 attendance figues, it's clear that the vast majority of fans would come from the south and west of Ulster to watch gaelic football.
For this vast majority, travelling to the maze is more convenient and offers less congestion for both the M1 and Belfast on match days.

Point 4:

The OWC crowd here reckon that their natural support base is about 25k (latest estimate from SammyG).
A 30k stadium would leave only a 5k capacity for away fans, as oppsed to 10k under the current Maze plan.
Surely halving the number of away fans totally wipes out half the benefit of the much hyped tourist benefit to the local economy.
Would NI PLC not be better off with 10k international visitors to the Maze than 5k to some Belfast stadium?


Feel free to add more.

To take your points in order.

The land at Ormeau has little or no intrinsic economic value, since BCC would never get Planning Permission (nor should it, imo) to redevelop a scarce inner-city public, leisure amenity for industrial/retail/housing purposes etc.
However, it has a reasonable/good chance of obtaining PP for a change of use from one leisure purpose to another.
Further, under the proposed scheme, BCC will NOT be "handing over" the site to a private developer. Rather, Durnien is saying that if he is allowed to build a stadium on the site, he hopes to get his investment plus profit, from operating the stadium (i.e. renting it out ot tenants, users, concerts etc). BCC will still own the land, Durnien will build a stadium for the city, and it needn't cost the Ratepayers anything.
Compare that with the Maze, where the Government is proposing spending £100m+ of taxpayers money on a stadium, thereby preventing it achieving half a billion pounds for development and the building of 1,000 much-needed homes.


Second, the Authors will have looked at a whole variety of factors when determining the optimum capacity and electing for 30,000. I don't know whether they considered GAA, but you might consider this. The GAA has said it doesn't wish to play in the city - that is their choice. But if they should change their mind, and the extra pitch size/footprint required doesn't scupper the economics of the deal, then it is open to them to move in as a tenant, and sell Casement. After all, Casement only has a capacity of 32,000, but is much less modern than Ormeau would be. And if the GAA in Ulster needs a larger capacity, they can continue to do what they do at present in the absence of the Maze i.e. play thier bigger games VAT-free in Clones or Croke.

As regards congestion for GAA fans travelling to Ormeau. I fail to see how approaching Belfast, the transport hub of the whole of the North East of the island, via a number of access routes in any direction, including rail and bus as well as private, is going to be harder than getting to the Maze, which has no public transport and only one dual carriageway to accommodate up to 20,000 cars all arriving and depating at the same time, along an (as yet to be built) spur road in and out of the stadium. If either the spur or the motorway itself should be blocked by, say an accident, there will be total gridlock - as already happens today, from time to time, with much less convergence.

As for soccer supporters, for international matches, the home team only has to allocate 10% of places to away fans i.e. 3k (some teams don't take that many to Belfast, btw). The Maze proposal envisages 35k seats total for soccer, so the away allocation will be only 500 more! However, there is a serious problem for away fans travelling to the Maze, namely, there isn't a hotel within 5 miles of the stadium, so they will have to stay in Belfast, come what may. And considering none of these will have a car (obviously), they will be relying on buses to take them out to the Maze. That's right, up to 3,500 thousand of them queuing at the Ulsterbus depot in Great Victoria Street at the same time! f**k me, it doesn't bear thinking about...
By contrast, if built in Belfast, they can fly into George Best Airport, take a 10 minute cab into the city centre, check into their hotel, nip out onto the Golden Mile for a drink, then walk to Ormeau Park via a footbridge built through the old Gasworks.

Feel free to add more of your "points" - knocking them down is as easy as shooting fish in a barrell!  

[his holiness nb]

Would you not think that if a stadium was built someone might think of building hotels, pubs restaurants nearby?
Not that much of a stretch of the imagination.
As they say, if you build it, they will come 

[Evil Genius]

this report is nothing more than appallingly unbalanced pro Belfast proaganda.
Don't give it any credence whatsoever.

It must be the influence of that well-known anti-GAA, pro-Belfast propagandist, Prof. Mike Smyth.

I wonder is he any relation to the Prof. Mike Smyth whom Fearon tells us is a former Armagh hurler?  

[SammyG]

Would you not think that if a stadium was built someone might think of building hotels, pubs restaurants nearby?
Not that much of a stretch of the imagination.
As they say, if you build it, they will come 

Who is going to build a pub or hotel that will only be used for a couple of hours, 6 or 8 times a year?

Getting back to the topic, great to see that the independent report confirms what everybody already knew. I now await Poots and co's publication of their business case, with interest.