Live NI Politics TV Debate

[delboy]

Any word on your predictions? Be sure and post that other link when you get a chance 

Ah go on then, I'm not normally a betting man but as it's for charity, I'll  give it a go. What way do you want to do it? Predict each constituency winner, the margins in each constituency, or a selection of constituencies?

Let me know what time suits you to post a list of predictions up (we should do it at the same time).

[Ulick]

Sorry Delboy, had to work late there. Here's my predictions:

East Antrim: Wilson (the only DUP shoe-in)
East Belfast: Robinson (losing about 3k votes to Ringland and Long)
East Derry: Campbell (even  though we'd all love to see Grumpy Gregory taken out by the prodiban insurgency of Willie Ross - yes I thought he was dead as well - maybe he is)
Fermanagh & S Tyrone: Gildernew (going with the gut on this one and a sense that the people of FST will do the just thing)    
Lagan Valley: Donaldson (even though the gay porno stories have got out, such things shouldn't matter in a constituency that returned bachelor boy Jim Molyneux for so many years)
Foyle: Durkan (the bourgeois Catholics should see him safely into his retirement package, but McCann will be the difference as Anderson should get within a few thousand)
Mid Ulster: McGuinness (the most respected politician in the north will be rewarded for his leadership - could even increase his lead to 50% of the vote)
Newry and Armagh: Murphy (probably increasing his majority close to 10k)
North Belfast: Deputy Dodds to hold for the last time (Old hawk eyes Kelly coming within a few hundred)
North Down: Hermon (with Parsley getting spanked for his trouble)
West Belfast: Adams (a shoe-in though he'll do well to maintain his 70% share of the vote)
West Tyrone: Doherty (a true gentleman, the old soldier has organised too many elections to let this slip even without Deeny standing)
South Belfast: McDonnell (Spratt will run him close though but he should still get about half of the Maskey vote to see him over the line)
North Antrim: Paisley (17k majority to too much to fcuk up even for Ian Og)
South Antrim: Reg Empey (SDLP tactical voters getting him over the line)
South Down: Ritche (served McGrady well but his share will probably slip from 44% to about 32% under her even with all of the UUP tactical votes. John McCallister to get embarrassed)
Strangford: Shannon ('Swish Family Robinson' and Fred Frazer backlash will be felt here but they locals should see through Nesbitt)
Upper Bann: Simpson to hold (with The Chef about 1.5k behind as the locals still don't realise it's winnable - they will next time)


So I have: 8 DUP, 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UUUCNF', 1 Ind

Obviously I still hold out hope for Kelly & O'Dowd who could cause a major upset if a perfect storm of conditions go their way.

[ziggysego]

My gut feeling tells me Ulick, O'Dowd is going to take Upper Bann. The voters believe it's possible from what I hear and he'll be getting the X next to his name.

[Ulick]

My gut feeling tells me Ulick, O'Dowd is going to take Upper Bann. The voters believe it's possible from what I hear and he'll be getting the X next to his name.

Well if it looks likely Ziggy, you'll hear it here first 

[RealSpiritof98]

Hard to predict most of the seats, but if Michelle can hold and O'Dowd sneaks upper bann, it could be some night for the shinners.

Really hope the tory's vote collapses tomorrow, that p***k Cameron will mix the shit up over here.

[delboy]

Sorry Delboy, had to work late there. Here's my predictions:

East Antrim: Wilson (the only DUP shoe-in)
East Belfast: Robinson (losing about 3k votes to Ringland and Long)
East Derry: Campbell (even  though we'd all love to see Grumpy Gregory taken out by the prodiban insurgency of Willie Ross - yes I thought he was dead as well - maybe he is)
Fermanagh & S Tyrone: Gildernew (going with the gut on this one and a sense that the people of FST will do the just thing)    
Lagan Valley: Donaldson (even though the gay porno stories have got out, such things shouldn't matter in a constituency that returned bachelor boy Jim Molyneux for so many years)
Foyle: Durkan (the bourgeois Catholics should see him safely into his retirement package, but McCann will be the difference as Anderson should get within a few thousand)
Mid Ulster: McGuinness (the most respected politician in the north will be rewarded for his leadership - could even increase his lead to 50% of the vote)
Newry and Armagh: Murphy (probably increasing his majority close to 10k)
North Belfast: Deputy Dodds to hold for the last time (Old hawk eyes Kelly coming within a few hundred)
North Down: Hermon (with Parsley getting spanked for his trouble)
West Belfast: Adams (a shoe-in though he'll do well to maintain his 70% share of the vote)
West Tyrone: Doherty (a true gentleman, the old soldier has organised too many elections to let this slip even without Deeny standing)
South Belfast: McDonnell (Spratt will run him close though but he should still get about half of the Maskey vote to see him over the line)
North Antrim: Paisley (17k majority to too much to fcuk up even for Ian Og)
South Antrim: Reg Empey (SDLP tactical voters getting him over the line)
South Down: Ritche (served McGrady well but his share will probably slip from 44% to about 32% under her even with all of the UUP tactical votes. John McCallister to get embarrassed)
Strangford: Shannon ('Swish Family Robinson' and Fred Frazer backlash will be felt here but they locals should see through Nesbitt)
Upper Bann: Simpson to hold (with The Chef about 1.5k behind as the locals still don't realise it's winnable - they will next time)


So I have: 8 DUP, 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UUUCNF', 1 Ind

Obviously I still hold out hope for Kelly & O'Dowd who could cause a major upset if a perfect storm of conditions go their way.

Right here is mine, actually not terribly different at first glance, although our interpretations of how close votes will be should differ.

East Antrim: DUP win, easy for Sammy.
East Belfast: DUP easy win despite reason scandals.
Londonderry East: Comfortable DUP win for Gregory
Fermanagh & S Tyrone: Connor win, not sure about this but i think the number of SDLP votes needed to shift to SF will be too many this time round, i expect a core SDLP vote will not vote SF. I also expect the turn out of the unionist bloc to be v. high since they have a chance of a win, hard to see how SF can mobilise the vote any more than they already do.    
Lagan Valley: DUP win for Donaldson.
Foyle: SDLP win with the most able SDLP candidate Durkan returned.
Mid Ulster: Easy SF win for the ex chuckle brother Marty.
Newry and Armagh: SF win
North Belfast: The most able member of the DUP ranks returned to parliament, the gap will remain in the thousands (not hundreds is my prediction).
North Down: Easy win for lady Hermon who is popular with the bangor people.
West Belfast: Another thumping win for SF and Gerry, despite his own scandals.
West Tyrone: SF win.
South Belfast: SDLP win, can't see spratt running him that close with a split in the unionist vote.
North Antrim: Paisley win for DUP, but TUV will put the wind up them and will eat into the large majority left to him by his dad.
South Antrim: Unsure of this but im going with a Reg Empty head win, the TUV may just split the traditional DUP vote to let the UCUNF UCUNF get a much needed MP, if they don't it could be bad news for republicans/nationalists as it could spell the end of the party and we could well see the the emergence of a unified unionist party.
South Down: Ritche win for SDLP against the terrible ruane, the SF tacticians would do well to remove here at the earliest opportunity.
Strangford: Despite virus doing her best ruin it for her own party, DUP should hold off nesbitt comfortably.
Upper Bann: DUP to hold despite the rumblings and rumours on here about an upset.

I have: 8 DUP, 4 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UCUNF', 2 Ind (Hermon and Connor).

[lynchbhoy]

I also dont think that SF will hold onto Fermanagh /south tyrone this time...

[Rois]

Well my (useless) vote has been cast, and despite SF being the only party with a representative at the polling station, I can't see them getting too many at that particular location.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Well my (useless) vote has been cast, and despite SF being the only party with a representative at the polling station, I can't see them getting too many at that particular location.

Rois, which polling station do you have?

[Rois]

Little Presbyterian Hall just between Fortwilliam Park and the Fortwilliam shops.

Round the corner from Alban's house and in the middle of Nursing Home Central.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Little Presbyterian Hall just between Fortwilliam Park and the Fortwilliam shops.

Round the corner from Alban's house and in the middle of Nursing Home Central.

Aye there's a few "departure" lounges round there alright!

[Ulick]

My gut feeling tells me Ulick, O'Dowd is going to take Upper Bann. The voters believe it's possible from what I hear and he'll be getting the X next to his name.

Not going to happen for Big John, Ziggy. Boxes from nationalist areas in Upper Bann are averaging 50%. Local SF had calculated the needed 60% to get him in.

[delboy]

"East Belfast: DUP easy win despite reason scandals."

Quote from myself   , shows you what i know, that said im c**k a hoop    im neither dup or uup(or whatever bollocks they call themselves), alliance from the day and hour (sorry to disappoint anybody that thought i was dyed in the wool unionist), never thought i'd see a result like that 

[Ulick]

"East Belfast: DUP easy win despite reason scandals."

Quote from myself   , shows you what i know, that said im c**k a hoop    im neither dup or uup(or whatever bollocks they call themselves), alliance from the day and hour (sorry to disappoint anybody that thought i was dyed in the wool unionist), never thought i'd see a result like that 

Fairplay Delboy you got me bang to rights. Hope you're not going to make me give the £20 to the OWC Away Trip Volcanic Ash Fund or something 

[Ulick]

Oh right, sorry, I thought I said that! Heheh... Looks like we are both numpties...