Live NI Politics TV Debate

[delboy]

He could do, but i doubt he would retain it in subsequent elections when tactical voting/standing came into play.

Have you considered census data and voting trends for any of the four constituencies you say are unwinnable for SF in five years time? What makes you think tactical voting won't come into play on the nationalist side?

Thats a fair point and actually worth addressing, two out of those four 'unwinnable constituencies' have an SDLP person at the helm with a healthu lead, if anyone needs to step aside in that instance its the SF candidate with the smaller mandate. I fail to see how that helps your case.
The other two seats have a sizeable unionist majority, any electoral pact between the sdlp and SF could be easily countered with a similar unionist pact which would win through. 

[Ulick]

Thats a fair point and actually worth addressing, two out of those four 'unwinnable constituencies' have an SDLP person at the helm with a healthu lead, if anyone needs to step aside in that instance its the SF candidate with the smaller mandate. I fail to see how that helps your case.
The other two seats have a sizeable unionist majority, any electoral pact between the sdlp and SF could be easily countered with a similar unionist pact which would win through.

The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election.

In North Belfast, the nationalist vote has always underperformed given the sectarian balance. The only thing that will keep in DUP hands tomorrow is the pathetic performance of the UUP. Demographic trends will see it come into play for SF at the next election. Most commentators are agreed on this.

As Upper Bann is pretty similar in demographics to North Belfast, only the rebalance is happening much faster. If you don't think it's in play, then why did the TUV not put a candidate up?

[delboy]

Im using the belfast telegraph poll.

For the larger picture what about this from the economic research and social research council.
Health Warning* May cause nightmares for republicans.

long term policy for northern irelandl

Sorry, you are using the Belfast Telegraph poll, which wasn't taken by a registered polling agency, but a public relations company owned by a DUP member, based on out-of-date data and low sample size with an estimated (self-declared) margin of error of at least 7%? Aye we can see you are on steady ground with your predictions.

As for the Life and Times survey - surely the last throw of the dice from the desperate. Widely discredited and bears no relation to how people actually vote.

Whilst the small sample size is not ideal (the error is 3 % with 95 % confidence levels), unfortuantely its the only one available, i can't just pull one out of my arse like you seem to.

I tell you what since you are so confident that the poll is wrong you make your predictions and i'll make mine based largely upon that poll, who ever gets closest to the actual results chooses a charity to which the loser pays £20.

Since the other opinion poll according to you was widlely discredited it shouldn't be any problem for you to provide links to the site of the organisation that discredited it, i'd be interested in reading that 

[delboy]

Thats a fair point and actually worth addressing, two out of those four 'unwinnable constituencies' have an SDLP person at the helm with a healthu lead, if anyone needs to step aside in that instance its the SF candidate with the smaller mandate. I fail to see how that helps your case.
The other two seats have a sizeable unionist majority, any electoral pact between the sdlp and SF could be easily countered with a similar unionist pact which would win through.

The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election.

In North Belfast, the nationalist vote has always underperformed given the sectarian balance. The only thing that will keep in DUP hands tomorrow is the pathetic performance of the UUP. Demographic trends will see it come into play for SF at the next election. Most commentators are agreed on this.

As Upper Bann is pretty similar in demographics to North Belfast, only the rebalance is happening much faster. If you don't think it's in play, then why did the TUV not put a candidate up?

Make your predicitions then 

[Ulick]

Whilst the small sample size is not ideal (the error is 3 % with 95 % confidence levels), unfortuantely its the only one available, i can't just pull one out of my arse like you seem to.

I tell you what since you are so confident that the poll is wrong you make your predictions and i'll make mine based largely upon that poll, who ever gets closest to the actual results chooses a charity to which the loser pays £20.

Since the other opinion poll according to you was widlely discredited it shouldn't be any problem for you to provide links to the site of the organisation that discredited it, i'd be interested in reading that 

http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/03/inform-communication-and-opinion-polling/

[delboy]

Whilst the small sample size is not ideal (the error is 3 % with 95 % confidence levels), unfortuantely its the only one available, i can't just pull one out of my arse like you seem to.

I tell you what since you are so confident that the poll is wrong you make your predictions and i'll make mine based largely upon that poll, who ever gets closest to the actual results chooses a charity to which the loser pays £20.

Since the other opinion poll according to you was widlely discredited it shouldn't be any problem for you to provide links to the site of the organisation that discredited it, i'd be interested in reading that 

http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/03/inform-communication-and-opinion-polling/

And  Any evidence that there is any biasis in it?

Im prepared to put my money were my mouth is, you seem to be an expert of how people vote, should be like taking candy of a baby for you.

What about a link to that site discrediting the opinion poll about the future of northern ireland, im surprised i haven't read about it elsewhere, the discrediting of a survey setup up by the two seats of learning queens and university of ulster would be newsworthy one would have thought.

[delboy]

Thats a fair point and actually worth addressing, two out of those four 'unwinnable constituencies' have an SDLP person at the helm with a healthu lead, if anyone needs to step aside in that instance its the SF candidate with the smaller mandate. I fail to see how that helps your case.
The other two seats have a sizeable unionist majority, any electoral pact between the sdlp and SF could be easily countered with a similar unionist pact which would win through.

The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election.

In North Belfast, the nationalist vote has always underperformed given the sectarian balance. The only thing that will keep in DUP hands tomorrow is the pathetic performance of the UUP. Demographic trends will see it come into play for SF at the next election. Most commentators are agreed on this.

As Upper Bann is pretty similar in demographics to North Belfast, only the rebalance is happening much faster. If you don't think it's in play, then why did the TUV not put a candidate up?

Can't say i agree with you, for one the latest changes to the boundaries has cemented the unionist/nationalist makeup of the seats, almost without exception the nationalist seats have become more nationalist and the unionist has become more unionist with the transfer of nationalist and unionist wards into the new boundaries respectively.
North belfast for instance has expanded to include wards from both south and east antrim (newtownabbey) where the catholic population is less than 20 %, this will of course increase the unionist majority making it unwinnable for kelly.
SF will have know all this but them seem to have been happy with the carve up which will also see nationalist seats essentially remain in their hands for perpetuity.

[Ulick]

Whilst the small sample size is not ideal (the error is 3 % with 95 % confidence levels), unfortuantely its the only one available, i can't just pull one out of my arse like you seem to.

I tell you what since you are so confident that the poll is wrong you make your predictions and i'll make mine based largely upon that poll, who ever gets closest to the actual results chooses a charity to which the loser pays £20.

Since the other opinion poll according to you was widlely discredited it shouldn't be any problem for you to provide links to the site of the organisation that discredited it, i'd be interested in reading that 

http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/03/inform-communication-and-opinion-polling/

And  Any evidence that there is any biasis in it?

Im prepared to put my money were my mouth is, you seem to be an expert of how people vote, should be like taking candy of a baby for you.

What about a link to that site discrediting the opinion poll about the future of northern ireland, im surprised i haven't read about it elsewhere, the discrediting of a survey setup up by the two seats of learning queens and university of ulster would be newsworthy one would have thought.

There were more after the poll came out, just too busy at the moment to hunt them down.

[Ulick]

Can't say i agree with you, for one the latest changes to the boundaries has cemented the unionist/nationalist makeup of the seats, almost without exception the nationalist seats have become more nationalist and the unionist has become more unionist with the transfer of nationalist and unionist wards into the new boundaries respectively.
North belfast for instance has expanded to include wards from both south and east antrim (newtownabbey) where the catholic population is less than 20 %, this will of course increase the unionist majority making it unwinnable for kelly.
SF will have know all this but them seem to have been happy with the carve up which will also see nationalist seats essentially remain in their hands for perpetuity.

Actually the wards that have been pulled into North Belfast make it more Catholic (Cloughfern from East Antrim and five wards in Glengormley).

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/election/constituency-profile-north-belfast-14790126.html

[delboy]

Can't say i agree with you, for one the latest changes to the boundaries has cemented the unionist/nationalist makeup of the seats, almost without exception the nationalist seats have become more nationalist and the unionist has become more unionist with the transfer of nationalist and unionist wards into the new boundaries respectively.
North belfast for instance has expanded to include wards from both south and east antrim (newtownabbey) where the catholic population is less than 20 %, this will of course increase the unionist majority making it unwinnable for kelly.
SF will have know all this but them seem to have been happy with the carve up which will also see nationalist seats essentially remain in their hands for perpetuity.

Actually the wards that have been pulled into North Belfast make it more Catholic (Cloughfern from East Antrim and five wards in Glengormley).

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/election/constituency-profile-north-belfast-14790126.html

I stand corrected, the beeb had it as newtownabbey not glengormley, on closer inspection it would make the seat 0.2 % more catholic than it was at the previous election. So not the best example of what i was driving at but the cementing of orange and green seats is evident through much of the boundary changes.

Any word on your predictions? Be sure and post that other link when you get a chance 

[Ulick]

Any word on your predictions? Be sure and post that other link when you get a chance 

Ah go on then, I'm not normally a betting man but as it's for charity, I'll  give it a go. What way do you want to do it? Predict each constituency winner, the margins in each constituency, or a selection of constituencies?

[delboy]

Any word on your predictions? Be sure and post that other link when you get a chance 

Ah go on then, I'm not normally a betting man but as it's for charity, I'll  give it a go. What way do you want to do it? Predict each constituency winner, the margins in each constituency, or a selection of constituencies?

I think a prediction of all constituency winners, im sure we'll differ enough to get a winner.

[Maguire01]

The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election

You're working on the assumption that the SDLP vote will continue to drop at each election. At some stage their vote will level out. It's not clear when that will be, but the SDLP will always have a core vote and there are many nationalists who will never vote SF.

[The Worker]

The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election

You're working on the assumption that the SDLP vote will continue to drop at each election. At some stage their vote will level out. It's not clear when that will be, but the SDLP will always have a core vote and there are many nationalists who will never vote SF.

Yes, I would agree, however I would suggest alot of these people would abstain from voting rather than ticking the stoops box.

[Maguire01]

Dirty tricks?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/northern_ireland/8661181.stm

Gerry Adams was the only politician to use a visual aid, waving around part of former SDLP MP Eddie McGrady's expenses bill as the leaders discussed the Westminster expenses scandal.

The SDLP leader retorted with reference to Sinn Fein's inflated rentals for London properties.

The SDLP later said in a statement that contrary to Mr Adams' claims, Mr McGrady had never claimed for the cutting of grass or hedges as part of his Westminster allowance.
The claim referred to by Mr Adams related to the repair and maintenance of his constituency office and compliance with health and safety regulations.