Live NI Politics TV Debate

[Maguire01]

One other point on the abstentionist thing, IMO the more abstentionist MPs we have the more focus is brought to bear on the illegitimacy of the British presence. The next election could see at least half of the norths 18 MPs in SF (abstentionist) hands which will correctly blow open the constitutional debate here. Up until now we have been denied that debate due to unionist denials reunification will ever happen and the southern establishments unwillingness to debate it in the open for fear it somehow bolsters the SF position. That debate is sorely needed.

You'd swear the Good Friday Agreement had never happened!
The debate will happen, but it won't be on the back of a Westminster poll.

[Bensars]

it was in reference to the first question   

"Also, how do you figure that the British parliament has more effect on the lives of the people of the north? "


But thanks for pointing that out

[Ulick]

You'd swear the Good Friday Agreement had never happened!
The debate will happen, but it won't be on the back of a Westminster poll.

Why not? What else will instigate the debate?

[delboy]

Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder 

Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).

delboy, if you read my post instead of trying hard to be witty with your puerile use of smilies, I said next election not this one. The seats in play for SF next time out are:

North Belfast
West Belfast
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
South Down
Upper Bann
West Tyrone

Now you tell me which of these are unrealistic targets?

Pretty fond of that word peurile, was it word of the day in dictionary corner or something, if you think smilies are peurile i suggest you take it up with the site admin. 

I did read it, so the next election isn't the next one, its actually the one after  whatever.

Don't know why im wasting my time but here goes anyway.

North Belfast: Dodds who is probably the most able of the DUP candidates is polling 7 % more than Kelly, overall 43 % nationalist/unionist 49 % a no win for SF.

West Belfast: a SF win

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: could go either way this one, but i suspect in the any subsequent elections when tactics come into play it will be a SF win.

Foyle: Mark Durkan is probably the most able SDLP candidate and recent polling gives him an 11 % lead in that seat, SF might make inroads into that but won't be taking that seat in this or the next election, tactical voting by unionists to stop SF will also help hold up his vote. No SF win. 

Mid Ulster: SF win

Newry and Armagh: SF win

South Down: latest poll gives Ritchie a 17 % lead against ruination,  won't be taking it this or the following election,  again tactical voting by unionists will shore up the SDLP in the event of SF making major inroads. No SF win

Upper Bann: O'dowd is polling at about 30 % (4 % behind DUP) but the total nationalist vote is 42 % compared to the total unionist vote of 55 %, if the SDLP moves on mass to SF, a unionist pact will see a unionist candidate returned easily. No SF win.

West Tyrone: SF win

[Ulick]

Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder 

Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).

delboy, if you read my post instead of trying hard to be witty with your puerile use of smilies, I said next election not this one. The seats in play for SF next time out are:

North Belfast
West Belfast
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
South Down
Upper Bann
West Tyrone

Now you tell me which of these are unrealistic targets?

Pretty fond of that word peurile, was it word of the day in dictionary corner or something, if you think smilies are peurile i suggest you take it up with the site admin. 
I did read it, so the next election isn't the next one, its actually the one after, whatever.

Don't know why im wasting my time but here goes anyway.
North Belfast: Dodds who is probably the most able of the DUP candidates is polling 7 % more than Kelly, overall 43 % nationalist/unionist 49 % a no win for SF.
West Belfast: a SF win
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: could go either way this one, but i suspect in the any subsequent elections when tactics come into play it will be a SF win.
Foyle: Mark Durkan is probably the most able SDLP candidate and recent polling gives him an 11 % lead in that seat, SF might make inroads into that but won't be taking that seat in this or the next election, tactical voting by unionists to stop SF will also help hold up his vote.
Mid Ulster: SF win
Newry and Armagh: SF win
South Down: latest poll gives Ritchie a 17 % lead against ruination,  won't be taking it this or the following election,  again tactical voting by unionists will shore up the SDLP in the event of SF making major inroads. No SF win
Upper Bann: O'dowd is polling at about 30 % (4 % behind DUP) but the total nationalist vote is 42 % compared to the total unionist vote of 55 %, if the SDLP moves on mass to SF, a unionist pact will see a unionist candidate returned easily. No SF win.
West Tyrone: SF win

You do understand that when I say next election I mean in five years time? If so why are you basing your opinion on current polls, however flawed, without taking into consideration the voting trend in each of the constituencies?

[delboy]

Ok just for you i'll invent a time machine so i can look at the opinion polls in 5 years time  Actually i won't, i'll go with nearly all  people/political commentators do in this instance and use the very latest opionion polls and then project those into the future to make an educated guess.

Or i could do what you seem to and base projected seats on hopes and aspirations rather than on polls.

[Maguire01]

You'd swear the Good Friday Agreement had never happened!
The debate will happen, but it won't be on the back of a Westminster poll.

Why not? What else will instigate the debate?

I'd assume a majority nationalist vote in an election (for SF and SDLP combined),  rather than one party having 50% of seats in an 18 seat first past the post contest.

[ziggysego]

Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder 

Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).

delboy, if you read my post instead of trying hard to be witty with your puerile use of smilies, I said next election not this one. The seats in play for SF next time out are:

North Belfast
West Belfast
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
South Down
Upper Bann
West Tyrone

Now you tell me which of these are unrealistic targets?

Pretty fond of that word peurile, was it word of the day in dictionary corner or something, if you think smilies are peurile i suggest you take it up with the site admin. 
I did read it, so the next election isn't the next one, its actually the one after, whatever.

Don't know why im wasting my time but here goes anyway.
North Belfast: Dodds who is probably the most able of the DUP candidates is polling 7 % more than Kelly, overall 43 % nationalist/unionist 49 % a no win for SF.
West Belfast: a SF win
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: could go either way this one, but i suspect in the any subsequent elections when tactics come into play it will be a SF win.
Foyle: Mark Durkan is probably the most able SDLP candidate and recent polling gives him an 11 % lead in that seat, SF might make inroads into that but won't be taking that seat in this or the next election, tactical voting by unionists to stop SF will also help hold up his vote.
Mid Ulster: SF win
Newry and Armagh: SF win
South Down: latest poll gives Ritchie a 17 % lead against ruination,  won't be taking it this or the following election,  again tactical voting by unionists will shore up the SDLP in the event of SF making major inroads. No SF win
Upper Bann: O'dowd is polling at about 30 % (4 % behind DUP) but the total nationalist vote is 42 % compared to the total unionist vote of 55 %, if the SDLP moves on mass to SF, a unionist pact will see a unionist candidate returned easily. No SF win.
West Tyrone: SF win

You do understand that when I say next election I mean in five years time? If so why are you basing your opinion on current polls, however flawed, without taking into consideration the voting trend in each of the constituencies?

I'm hearing that O'Dowd could pull of a surprise and take the Upper Bann seat.

[Ulick]

Ok just for you i'll invent a time machine so i can look at the opinion polls in 5 years time  Actually i won't, i'll go with what all people do in this instance and use the very latest opionion polls and then project those into the future to make an educated guess.

What polls are you using and why aren't you considering the most reliable voting trends and census data?

[delboy]

Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder 

Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).

delboy, if you read my post instead of trying hard to be witty with your puerile use of smilies, I said next election not this one. The seats in play for SF next time out are:

North Belfast
West Belfast
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
South Down
Upper Bann
West Tyrone

Now you tell me which of these are unrealistic targets?

Pretty fond of that word peurile, was it word of the day in dictionary corner or something, if you think smilies are peurile i suggest you take it up with the site admin. 
I did read it, so the next election isn't the next one, its actually the one after, whatever.

Don't know why im wasting my time but here goes anyway.
North Belfast: Dodds who is probably the most able of the DUP candidates is polling 7 % more than Kelly, overall 43 % nationalist/unionist 49 % a no win for SF.
West Belfast: a SF win
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: could go either way this one, but i suspect in the any subsequent elections when tactics come into play it will be a SF win.
Foyle: Mark Durkan is probably the most able SDLP candidate and recent polling gives him an 11 % lead in that seat, SF might make inroads into that but won't be taking that seat in this or the next election, tactical voting by unionists to stop SF will also help hold up his vote.
Mid Ulster: SF win
Newry and Armagh: SF win
South Down: latest poll gives Ritchie a 17 % lead against ruination,  won't be taking it this or the following election,  again tactical voting by unionists will shore up the SDLP in the event of SF making major inroads. No SF win
Upper Bann: O'dowd is polling at about 30 % (4 % behind DUP) but the total nationalist vote is 42 % compared to the total unionist vote of 55 %, if the SDLP moves on mass to SF, a unionist pact will see a unionist candidate returned easily. No SF win.
West Tyrone: SF win

You do understand that when I say next election I mean in five years time? If so why are you basing your opinion on current polls, however flawed, without taking into consideration the voting trend in each of the constituencies?

I'm hearing that O'Dowd could pull of a surprise and take the Upper Bann seat.

He could do, but i doubt he would retain it in subsequent elections when tactical voting/standing came into play.

[Ulick]

You'd swear the Good Friday Agreement had never happened!
The debate will happen, but it won't be on the back of a Westminster poll.

Why not? What else will instigate the debate?

I'd assume a majority nationalist vote in an election (for SF and SDLP combined),  rather than one party having 50% of seats in an 18 seat first past the post contest.

You're splitting hairs now Maguire.

[Ulick]

He could do, but i doubt he would retain it in subsequent elections when tactical voting/standing came into play.

Have you considered census data and voting trends for any of the four constituencies you say are unwinnable for SF in five years time? What makes you think tactical voting won't come into play on the nationalist side?

[delboy]

Ok just for you i'll invent a time machine so i can look at the opinion polls in 5 years time  Actually i won't, i'll go with what all people do in this instance and use the very latest opionion polls and then project those into the future to make an educated guess.

What polls are you using and why aren't you considering the most reliable voting trends and census data?

Im using the belfast telegraph poll.

For the larger picture what about this from the economic research and social research council.
Health Warning* May cause nightmares for republicans.

long term policy for northern irelandl

[winsamsoon]

He could do, but i doubt he would retain it in subsequent elections when tactical voting/standing came into play.

Have you considered census data and voting trends for any of the four constituencies you say are unwinnable for SF in five years time? What makes you think tactical voting won't come into play on the nationalist side?

I would think the SDLP would rather give a vote to the Unionist side rather than side with SF, Whilst the are supposed to be singing from a similiar Hymn sheet i really do wonder at times the extent to which they would go to put one over on SF.

[Ulick]

Im using the belfast telegraph poll.

For the larger picture what about this from the economic research and social research council.
Health Warning* May cause nightmares for republicans.

long term policy for northern irelandl

Sorry, you are using the Belfast Telegraph poll, which wasn't taken by a registered polling agency, but a public relations company owned by a DUP member, based on out-of-date data and low sample size with an estimated (self-declared) margin of error of at least 7%? Aye we can see you are on steady ground with your predictions.

As for the Life and Times survey - surely the last throw of the dice from the desperate. Widely discredited and bears no relation to how people actually vote.