Cavan v Fermanagh, Ulster champ 1st rd

[Caid]

Mark Murphy

[FermGael]

Who to non fermanagh posters is womble?? The name rings a bell but can't think who it is...

Mark Murphy.  Played midfield all of last year.  

[mylestheslasher]

Methodology
- We all know that modern day managers love to pour over statistics to enhance performance and Malachy appears to be the master of identifying other team's strengths and weaknesses and exploiting that knowledge to maximum potential. 
- The analysis below summarises the performance of both teams in this years National League and the conclusions that Malachy is likely to reach following said analysis

Cavan analysis
- 63% of Cavan's scores came from dead balls/frees in the NFL (scored mainly by Johnston (50%), Pierson (24%) and Martin Reilly (21%))
- 56% of all of Cavan's scores came from three players (Johnston (32%), Pierson (12%) and Martin Reilly (12%))
- Seanie Johnston scored 21% of all of the scores Cavan got from open play whilst Larry Reilly got 11%.  In total 19 different players scored in the league
- Cavan averaged 13 points a game whilst Seanie Johnston averaged 4 points a game and Ger Pierson 5.5 points a game in the two games he played (although as noted around half of these were from placed balls)
- Cavan conceded on average 13.4 points a game
- Cavan won two out of their three home games scoring an average of 12 points and conceding an average of 9 points

Fermanagh analysis
- Only 29% of Fermanagh's scores came from frees in the NFL (scored mainly by Daryl and O'Brien)
- Moreover, of the scores scored against Fermanagh only 29% came from placed balls
- Fermanagh's highest scorers from play in the league were Ferris (9), Sherry (6), Wee Man (6) and O'Brien, Carson and Macsy (5) with the scores shared amongst 16 squad members
- Fermanagh scored an average of 12.4 points per game and conceded 15.1 points
- In away games Fermanagh won 1 and drew 1 out of 4 scoring 13.3 points on average and conceding 15.3 points

Summary
- Cavan are heavily reliant on scoring frees to win games
- Fermanagh do not concede many frees (or at least frees in scoreable positions) as evidenced throughout the league and against Down
- The much lauded Seanie Johnston scored the majority of his scores from frees (3 points from play against Louth, two from play in three other games and one from play in three other games).  Shane Goan has done effective man marking jobs on some of the best forwards in Ireland and can hold Johnston to a few scores from play, whilst Niall Bogue could pick up Pierson
- Fermanagh scored seven goals in seven league games whilst Cavan only scored two (both goals in the first six minutes against a Louth team which struggled past Carlow)

Conclusion
- Cavan 0-9 Fermanagh 1-9
- Man of the match: Tommy McElroy
- Fermanagh scorers: Daryl Keenan 1-1, R Carson 0-2, C McElroy 0-1, T McElroy 0-1, J Sherry 0-1, R Keenan 0-1, E Maguire 0-1, S O'Brien 0-1

Key message
- Fermanagh have been much maligned by the media for not having a "seven point a game" forward.  However, whilst having a good freetaker would be beneficial, it is not critical as Fermanagh is no longer reliant on scores from placed balls 
- Having such a good defence (and man markers and the sweeper system) means that we are well placed to play against teams that are overly reliant on one or two key men for scores (e.g. McDonnell/Clarke, Bradley/Bradley, Tommy Freeman) and even more so against teams that rely on handy frees for scores
- To this end the referee selected will also have a key role to play

Oh dear, looks bad for Cavan doesn't it. Based on these statistics I expect that Fermanagh will probably win 1-20 to 0-6, Cavans scorers S Johnstone 0-6 (all frees). Oh well, there is always the back door (hopefully we'll get carlow)

[FermPundit]

Methodology
- We all know that modern day managers love to pour over statistics to enhance performance and Malachy appears to be the master of identifying other team's strengths and weaknesses and exploiting that knowledge to maximum potential. 
- The analysis below summarises the performance of both teams in this years National League and the conclusions that Malachy is likely to reach following said analysis

Cavan analysis
- 63% of Cavan's scores came from dead balls/frees in the NFL (scored mainly by Johnston (50%), Pierson (24%) and Martin Reilly (21%))
- 56% of all of Cavan's scores came from three players (Johnston (32%), Pierson (12%) and Martin Reilly (12%))
- Seanie Johnston scored 21% of all of the scores Cavan got from open play whilst Larry Reilly got 11%.  In total 19 different players scored in the league
- Cavan averaged 13 points a game whilst Seanie Johnston averaged 4 points a game and Ger Pierson 5.5 points a game in the two games he played (although as noted around half of these were from placed balls)
- Cavan conceded on average 13.4 points a game
- Cavan won two out of their three home games scoring an average of 12 points and conceding an average of 9 points

Fermanagh analysis
- Only 29% of Fermanagh's scores came from frees in the NFL (scored mainly by Daryl and O'Brien)
- Moreover, of the scores scored against Fermanagh only 29% came from placed balls
- Fermanagh's highest scorers from play in the league were Ferris (9), Sherry (6), Wee Man (6) and O'Brien, Carson and Macsy (5) with the scores shared amongst 16 squad members
- Fermanagh scored an average of 12.4 points per game and conceded 15.1 points
- In away games Fermanagh won 1 and drew 1 out of 4 scoring 13.3 points on average and conceding 15.3 points

Summary
- Cavan are heavily reliant on scoring frees to win games
- Fermanagh do not concede many frees (or at least frees in scoreable positions) as evidenced throughout the league and against Down
- The much lauded Seanie Johnston scored the majority of his scores from frees (3 points from play against Louth, two from play in three other games and one from play in three other games).  Shane Goan has done effective man marking jobs on some of the best forwards in Ireland and can hold Johnston to a few scores from play, whilst Niall Bogue could pick up Pierson
- Fermanagh scored seven goals in seven league games whilst Cavan only scored two (both goals in the first six minutes against a Louth team which struggled past Carlow)

Conclusion
- Cavan 0-9 Fermanagh 1-9
- Man of the match: Tommy McElroy
- Fermanagh scorers: Daryl Keenan 1-1, R Carson 0-2, C McElroy 0-1, T McElroy 0-1, J Sherry 0-1, R Keenan 0-1, E Maguire 0-1, S O'Brien 0-1

Key message
- Fermanagh have been much maligned by the media for not having a "seven point a game" forward.  However, whilst having a good freetaker would be beneficial, it is not critical as Fermanagh is no longer reliant on scores from placed balls 
- Having such a good defence (and man markers and the sweeper system) means that we are well placed to play against teams that are overly reliant on one or two key men for scores (e.g. McDonnell/Clarke, Bradley/Bradley, Tommy Freeman) and even more so against teams that rely on handy frees for scores
- To this end the referee selected will also have a key role to play

Oh dear, looks bad for Cavan doesn't it. Based on these statistics I expect that Fermanagh will probably win 1-20 to 0-6, Cavans scorers S Johnstone 0-6 (all frees). Oh well, there is always the back door (hopefully we'll get carlow)

Is there any point in playing the match at all? 

[boojangles]

Brilliant bit of stats there alright.Everything broken down briliantly.The conclusion however is a bit of a waste of time,but anyway,worth a guess I suppose.Everything points to a Fermanagh win but if other players can step up to it,apart from Jelly and lesser extent Pierson we mite have a chance.
Our home record in Ulster is patchy,defeats by Armagh(08),Donegal (02) and Derry (00) in the last decade.

[cavanmaniac]

Very intersting breakdown alright, but everything is predicated on the assumption that one sort of intercounty football (league) is the same as the other (championship).

As we know they're very different animals altogether, in terms of pace, team motivation, fitness etc. You can't really take too much from the stats, interesting and good reading though they are Caid.

As the season progresses, doing similar analyses using championship games only would give a great snapshot of a team though.

[armaghniac]

As the season progresses, doing similar analyses using championship games only would give a great snapshot of a team though.

It would, but some teams won't be in the championship long enough to get a statistically useful sample, whereas everyone plays 7 games in the League.

[mylestheslasher]

Who to non fermanagh posters is womble?? The name rings a bell but can't think who it is...

Mark Murphy.  Played midfield all of last year.  

Wombles are a bit small to play midfield if memory serves me correctly.

[cavanmaniac]

They're excellent at working off scraps though Myles.






I'll get me coat....

[mylestheslasher]

Fermanagh by 5.

Perhaps, but it would be more likely to be Derry by 5 next weekend

Possibly, although i wouldn't say more likely. But there's another thread for that game.

You were right, ye only lost by 3.

Are Fermanagh playing any challenge games these weeks. Cavan seem to be playing one every weekend.

[To whom it may concern]

As a Fermanagh man, i am worried about this game

whilst we beat down, i feel teams will begin to suss out our style and cavan are waiting in the long grass and keeping a low profile-tommy carr will be a shrewd game and breffni park is no easy venue

i am also concerned at our bench, have we an "X" factor that could change the game? someone to come on and kick a score?

looking at derry yesterday, i think we would have struggled

any word on owens/murphy?

[FermGael]

Johnston injured in training.   

Somehow i think he might make it

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/northern_ireland/the_championship/8075309.stm

Cavan forward Seanie Johnston is rated as extremely doubtful for the Ulster SFC quarter-final against Fermanagh after pulling a hamstring in training.

With Michael Lyng already ruled out of the Breffni Park tie by injury, the loss of Johnston would be a massive blow to Cavan's attacking options.

Fermanagh go into Saturday evening's game on a high, following their preliminary round win over Down.

The winners will face Donegal or Antrim at the semi-final stage.

[ExiledGael]

This is just a ploy from managers to divert attention and pressure.

Were all the county lads banned from the club league games today?

[FermGael]

This is just a ploy from managers to divert attention and pressure.

Were all the county lads banned from the club league games today?

Yes.

[wanderer]

As a Fermanagh man, i am worried about this game

whilst we beat down, i feel teams will begin to suss out our style and cavan are waiting in the long grass and keeping a low profile-tommy carr will be a shrewd game and breffni park is no easy venue

i am also concerned at our bench, have we an "X" factor that could change the game? someone to come on and kick a score?

looking at derry yesterday, i think we would have struggled

any word on owens/murphy?

I would be of the same opinion that this could be a banana skin for Fermanagh, but I would be quietly confident of getting the right result.

As for the "X factor", I would say that we are stronger again from last year when you look at the starting 15 from the Down match and the lads that we potentially have coming back into contention over the next while i.e. Owens, Goan, Kelly, Sherry, Foy, Murphy, O'Brien, O'Reilly even Cadden & Ferris if they had a wee bit more experience and confidence boost, could be used in a range of ways to change the way the team are/could play.

Again with regards Derry and teams sussing out how we play, I think is being a bit negative for no real reason. I would fancy Fermanagh against any team in Ulster bar Tyrone, and they are the yardstick for the whole country. Its all well and good knowing how Fermanagh's system works and then stopping it. To be fair to Malachy, the system they played against Down will be different from the one used against Cavan. Each game will see players doing a diferent job based on what he thinks the opponents strength/weaknesses are. For example if Fermanagh missed some of the scores that were missed yesterday, they would have been ripped apart by the media; or if they set up like Armagh did, we would be listening about how Fermanagh are the most negative team in the world and potentially the cause of the credit crunch