Aintree Grand National - Sat 4th April 2009

[the Deel Rover]

Fair play Hardy and tonights lotto numbers if you get a chance

[ulster-boy]

Aintree 15.45 BACKSTAGE

[T O Hare]

Whats your views on Denman today.. personally i am swaying towards exotic dancer

[T O Hare]

Big bucks wins the first

[youbetterbelieveit]

Any tips for next race T O' Hare

[illdecide]

Just done Lough dearg each way there and i might as well off got my £10 and threw it at the cops

[rossie mad]

lovely ride by ruby

couldnt give lough derg away in the betting
Had a small sentimental bet on him all the same but alas the auld fella finished last
still ran his race the way he always does.

migthy man hit the last hard and made a mistake and might have made it harder for big bucks on the run in.

Fancy walk on in the next.

[T O Hare]

Any tips for next race T O' Hare

i cant pick my nose right, cant choose between starluck and walkon

[T O Hare]

Thankfully picked the right one walkon wins easily

[illdecide]

Something similar that was posted the other day but he tips a few himself...

> The Best Financial Advice of 2008 Returns... Neil's Grand National Tips
> for 2009.
>
> Share
>
> Yesterday at 21:58
>
> Hello friends and welcome to what has become my annual dice with utter
> humiliation, published for the very first time on Facebook.
>
> For the uninitiated / confused, allow me to explain. Nowadays I work for
> totesport - one of the UK's biggest bookies - and for the last 3 years
> I've tried to pass on some insider knowledge on the big race with some
> degree of success.
>
> Helped by a trusted colleagues' analysis of National runners, we have to
> date delivered a shortlist that's always included the eventual winner.
> Then I whittle down the remainder using my own skill and judgment, and
> some (I hope!) will remember we came up trumps last year with my winning
> tip - Comply or Die.
>
> So in the expectation that lightening ultimately never strikes twice it's
> time to apply the winning formula once again...
>
> As I say every year, the Grand National is anything but the lottery many
> think it is and over the last 20 years the winning horses tick all or
> nearly all of the following boxes:
>
> * No horse has carried more than 11 stone 1lb to victory since 1983. Given
> the quality of horses this year I've increased the maximum weight criteria
> to 11st 3lbs for purposes of the shortlist.
> * It will have already won a race of 3 miles or more.
> * It will have won a race contested by 13 or more runners.
> * It will have an Official Rating of between 136 and 154.
> * It will be aged 8-12, and probably at least 2 seasons of chase racing
> experience.
> * It won't have been bred in France.
> * It will have some form this season, probably a minimum of one top 3
> finish to its' name
>
> If you ignore all other stats, remember to always pick a "stayer" i.e. a
> horse that based on past performances has the stamina to run competitively
> at 4 miles+. Also factor in the weight it has to lug around. Theoretically
> the better the horse the more weight it carries, so try to pick one that
> has had a good result after the weights are announced in February which
> indicate the handicapper may have under rated it.
>
> Applying the above logic we can reduce the starting field of 40 to the
> following shortlist of 10 potential winners (best available bookmaker
> prices in brackets)...
>
> Brooklyn Brownie (33/1), Butlers Cabin (10/1), Cornish Sett (33/1),
> Darkness (22/1), Himalayan Trail (33/1), Kilbeggan Blade (22/1), Parsons
> Legacy (16/1), Rambling Minster (11/1), Southern Vic (28/1) and State of
> Play (14/1)
>
> And now for those dreaded tips...
>
> With 75% of the field jettisoned, including last years winner Comply or
> Die and current favourite My Will (both carrying too much weight,
> questionable form) allow me to eliminate the final 10 in an X-Factor type
> way.
>
> First to go are Cornish Sett, Himalyan Trail and Brooklyn Brownie, none of
> whom have enough class to challenge in my view, and Southern Vic who won't
> like the firmer ground expected (never know with the weather up here
> though!?).
>
> Next to go is Butlers Cabin. You may recall I tipped this one as an each
> way choice last year (he was going well until falling on the second
> circuit) but subsequent form hasn't been great, and the fact that champion
> jockey Tony McCoy hasn't confirmed he'll be riding it at the time of
> writing suggests he's not convinced either.
>
> Parsons Legacy's odds have tumbled this week after being recommended by a
> tipping site. He'll go well on good ground and I wouldn't say much to put
> you off a bet on him to be honest other than he hasn't raced in 2009 so is
> a bit of an unknown quantity.
>
> However, for my first bet this year I'll be taking a plunge into DARKNESS
> (good pun Neil pat on the back). Apparently this horse isn't a fan of big
> crowded fields which let's be honest doesn't bode well but if his jockey
> keeps him out of trouble he has the class to go very close.
>
> STATE OF PLAY is a tip given to me by our chief racing trader so I
> wouldn't advise against an each-way bet on this one either.
>
> My final each-way tip is RAMBLING MINSTER. He ticks all the past trend
> boxes better than most, is in cracking form and would get my 5* selection
> but for one nagging doubt. His last defeat back in December was to a horse
> also running in the National who will benefit from a 6lb comparative
> advantage in the handicap to that day and is double the price!
>
> That horse (as luck would have it) is the only one remaining on the
> shortlist, and is my 5* tip for this year - KILBEGGAN BLADE. This one
> seems to have improved a lot this year judging by his form and is really
> well handicapped carrying just 10st 7lbs. Given his place in the betting
> market this one would put last year's tip firmly in the shade if he comes
> in, and I'd advise getting on quick as his price is shortening by the day.
>
>
> So there you have it - reputation on the line once again. Good luck if you
> decide to have a go regardless of whether you take my advice and remember
> the more you bet the more you win!
>
> Neil's £50 investment plan
>
> £10 to win on Kilbeggan Blade
> £5 each-way on Kilbeggan Blade (cover bet), State of Play, Darkness,
> Rambling Minster
>

[rossie mad]

have a small each way bet on madison de berlais in the next.
Had a score on walk on in the last so up for a while.

missed the race though some plonker came into the office looking for directions 

[rossie mad]

madison du berlais wins with a great ride by scudamore.

denman unlucky to fall near the end but i thought thomas gave him a shocking ride.

10 ew on madison so definitly up for the day now unless i go mental

ive agus a vic done in the next

[T O Hare]

Exotic dancer suffered a heart attack and had to be put down, always liked this horse, always gave everything and was usually in the money!!!!!

[SidelineKick]

Aintree fund helped out by Sunnyhillboy 

[stiffler]

RIP exotic dancer


Anyone fancy L'ami for the national?