Aintree Grand National - Sat 4th April 2009

[Homer]

I think Nails's tip "Black Apalachi" will have a very good chance...

He would have an excellent chance if only it would rain (very heavily) but that's just not going to happen and I'd imagine if the ground continues to get much firmer he may not run at all.

[Our Nail Loney]

I think Nails's tip "Black Apalachi" will have a very good chance...

He would have an excellent chance if only it would rain (very heavily) but that's just not going to happen and I'd imagine if the ground continues to get much firmer he may not run at all.

That is the worry Homer... though this below is taken from the RP...

WITH Merseyside expected to enjoy an early taste of summer for the John Smith's Grand National meeting, a course watering programme began on Monday and is likely to continue for much of the week.

A Met Office spokesman told racingpost.com on Monday that there was no rain included in the forecast this week, and by Friday temperatures may climb to between 15c-16c. The average for the area in the first weekof April was 11c.

Aintree clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch and his team gave the entire Mildmay course between 4mm-6mm on Monday, and the ground there is  good.

The Grand National course, which is good, good to soft in places, will be watered on Tuesday, with amounts varying between 3mm-6mm.

Tulloch said: "The National course is generally good ground, with just the odd spot of good to soft. We will water to maintain safe conditions, and if necessary that may include watering after racing on Thursday and Friday."

He added: "The various forecasters agree that it will be quite warm by Friday, and one has suggested temperatures may be up to 18c."

So lets all start our rain dances, if only for Sideline, illdecide and Youngfella to get drenched!! 

[illdecide]

Thats cruel Nail...When me and sideline are running around half lamped chatting to the lovely females and punting away I'll remember your stuck in that pokey office watching them losers gambling on two fly's on the screen or any other thing that moves...lol

Just you get the tips to us so we can accumulate enough for a high class escort that will show us the sights around Liverpool

[full back]

Just you get the tips to us so we can accumulate enough for a high class escort that will show us the sights around Liverpool

You wont need that much money for any class of escort to show you around Liverpool

[rossie mad]

I fancy parsons legacy or rambling minister.both like the good ground which it most certainly will be plus have form at longer distances.the weights are winnng weights plus parsons legacy was well respected last year before he got injured before the race and many thought he would do it.my will is 7/1 now very short ante post for a national.bookies will make a killiing on him as most people just back cause of the ruby factor personally cant see him do it.

Il probably regret saying that

[illdecide]

Its naps for Friday i need!!! let me know lads if you fancy anything on Friday

[Declan]

Got this mail this morning

Age:
•In the last 68 years no horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National
•In the last 85 years no horse older than 12 has won the Grand National, and no 13 year old has made the frame since 1969.
•It's 95 years since a six year old was last victorious.
•No runner aged 6, 7, 13 or 14 has won or been placed in the Grand National since WW2.
•9-11 year olds have best records because of experience and peak physical condition.
•The peak for a staying chaser is thought to be around 9 - 10 years old. Grand National trends back this up with 10 of the last thirteen winners being aged nine or ten.
•Runners aged between ten and twelve have won 12 of the last 19 renewals
•34 9-year-olds have won the Grand National since 1900. Eleven-year-olds also have a good record in the Grand National.
•Horses aged in double figures have won 12 of the last 18 renewals with 9 year olds also fairing well (5 wins in the last 12 years).
•Eleven out of the last 17 winners were aged ten or above but nine is the new ten and horses are so well trained now that nine year olds are very much in favour.
•The 2008 winner Comply or Die was aged 9 and four of the first five home were 9 or 10.
                                                                                                         
Weight:   
•Since the war only five Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11 st 5 lbs and two of those were by the incredible Red Rum! Only one horse in the last 51 years (Red Rum) has won the race carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs.
•Only 2 horses carrying 11st 5lbs or more completed the race last year (neither finished in the first 10 home), with one completing the race the previous year.
• Only one horse in the last 25 years has carried more than 11 stone to victory.
• 23 out of the last 26 winners of the Aintree Grand National were carrying less than 11 stone.
•Only eleven participants in the last 22 years have even been placed carrying more than 11 stone.   
                                                                                                      
Stamina:   
• Since 1970 every winner had previously won over 3 miles or more.
• The 2008 winner Comply or Die had confirmed his stamina by previously winning chases over three miles or further, including the four mile + totesport idor chase at Newbury.
• Not all horses entered will actually have won in previous races over long distances but try to pick one that has at least finished and placed in one.
                                                                                                         
Class:   
• Only one horse with a rating of over 154 has won the Grand National and only two have been placed in the last 19 years.
• In the last 22 years every winner ran off an offical rating of between 136 and 157 with only 2 horses winning from ""out of the handicap"". In 2008 the winner Comply or Die was rated 139, with Silver Birch rated 138 in 2007.
• Consider horses rated between 136 and 145 as this group has provided every single winner for the past decade.
                                                                                                         
Performance:   
• Each of the last 12 winners had proven ability in a top race and had won a race worth at least £17,000.
• Last years winner had proven himself in good class races including winning the £30,000 Totesport Eidor
                                                                                                         
Jumping:   
• All of the last 12 winners had run at least ten times over fences before big day at Aintree.
• Horses to have run over hurdles that season (or be lighlty raced over fences) may indicate that the trainer may have been protecting
the horse chase handicap mark for the Grand National.
• 5 OF THE LAST 6 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE YEAR THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL
• Try to avoid horses who have fallen more than twice in their careers. Novices should also be avoided.
                                                                                                         
Sex/Colour:   
• Only 13 mares have won the Aintree Grand National.
• The last mare to win the Grand National was in 1951.
• Only two greys have won the Grand National in the history of the event.
                                                                                                         
Fitness:   
• The Grand National is run around four weeks after the Cheltenham Festival and many horses will have been trained so that they peak in time for Cheltenham, not Aintree.
• In recent years only Silver Birch (second the Cross Country) and Bindaree (sixth in the William Hill Chase) have gone on to win the Grand National after racing at Cheltenham. Many others have tried and failed.
• 2008 winner Comply or Die did not run at Cheltenham. His last race before the Grand National was the Totesport Eider on 23 February giving him over 40 days break before the Grand national.
• Golden Miller remains the only horse to have won the Grand National and the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the same year.
• Every winner in the past 10 years had had at least four runs prior, in preparation for the big race.
• Each of the past 10 winners had previously run in the past two months.
• Between 1995 and 2004 the National winners ran between 16 and 42 days previously. Lord Gylenne ran second in the Midlands National.
                                                                                                         
National Form:   
• Since 1998 only one horse that has been placed or indeed won in the previous years national has gone onto win the following year.
• Since 1998 3 horses have won the national after failing to finish the reace the previous year.
• Only three horses in the history of the National have won the race in consecutive years. Red Rum the most recent (1973-4).
• Since 1990 13 horses have gone for the double but the results speak for themselves (PPPPP00464026).
• Since 1990 four winners failed to complete the Grand National course the year before.
• In the last 22 years, 20 of the horses finishing in the first four ran in the previous year's race. Of those, 9 had won or been placed before, seven had failed to complete the course and five completed but were out of the frame
• Six of the last seven winners had run over the national fences before.
• Only four horses have won back-to-back Grand Nationals.
                                                                                                      
Betting:   
• Only 4 Grand National favorites have won in the last 26 years. Comply Or Die was the latest in 2008
• Only 3 Grand National winners from the last 13 have been bigger than 16/1 at the start of the race. Silver Birch was the latest in 2007.
• Middle of the Grand National betting market seems to be key as 11/1 shot Numbersixvalverde proved on 2007.
• 14 of the last 17 winners were in the top 8 in the betting
• The race is rarely won by a horse with odds of less than 10/1 (only five since 1978).
                                                                                                         
Country Bred:   
• There have been 6 Irish winners in the last 10 renewals. In 2008, 4 of the first 5 home were Irish trained.
• French bred runners have a poor record, mostly  due to the fact that ivery few races n France are run beyond three miles, so breederes have no need to install strong stamina genes into there stock. They are also trained harder at a younger age so once they get to eight or nine they are ususally past there best.
                                                                                                         
Jumping:   
• 5 OF THE LAST 6 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE YEAR THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL   
                                                                                                      
Jockey/Trainer   
• Some trainers have a better history of training staying chasers and particularly Grand National winners than others. In recent years Nigel Twiston Davies has trained two runners to victory, whilst Ginger McCain won his fourth Grand National with Amberleigh House.
• Grand National trends - pay attention to runners from stables with a history of training good staying chasers and Grand National winners but don't place too much emphasis on this.
• A P McCoy is one of the greatest ever jump jockeys yet he has never won a Grand National!

                                                                                                         
Headgear:   
• Horses wearing headgear of any sort managed just one Grand National victory since 1975 from 138 starters.
                                                                                                         
Cheltenham:   
• Only one horse has followed up a Cheltenham win with a win in the Grand National in the same year since 1961.
• The Gold Cup has produced 3 winners and 9 placed horses since 1987. 10 of those 12 finished second, third, fourth or fifth.
                                                                                                         
Hennessy Gold Cup:   
• In the last 20 years this race has produced 7 winners, along with 11 placed horses. Of those 18, 13 finished in the first five in this race.   
                                                                                                      
Irish National:   
• Provided 5 winners and 1 placed horse in the last 20 years, with 4 of those winners all coming in the last eight renewals.
• Two horses have actually managed the big race double.
                                                                                                         
Welsh National:   
• The Welsh National has thrown up 10 win & placed horses in the last 20 years – although only one horse has done the double in this time.                                                                                                         


If ye managed to analyse that then so far a shortlist of 9 horses (subject to change). At 100-1 I fancy Reveillez to maybe run into a place for Jonjo O'Neill and the other ones i really fancy are, Darkness, Rambling Minster Kilbeggan Blade and State of Play. At the current odds it might be worth while backing all of them EW.

STATE OF PLAY       Evan Williams
SILVER BIRCH (CD)   G Elliott
BUTLER'S CABIN    Jonjo O'Neill
PARSONS LEGACY   P J Hobbs
REVEILLEZ       Jonjo O'Neill
CORNISH SETT      P F Nicholls
DARKNESS      C R Egerton
RAMBLING MINSTER   K G Reveley
KILBEGGAN BLADE   T R George

[rossie mad]

State of plays odds has shortened well the last few days if i remember correctly.

illdecide when i am in the bookies friday i will be backing these horses in aintree
Michael flips
Scotsirish
kayf aramis
kerada.

These are my fancies and i repeat NOT TIPS.
I accept no responsibility for any money lost on these horses or injuries incurred from losing money on these horses

p.s if lough derg is runnung friday have a small each way bet on it as this is the william wallace of horse racing.
a legend of a horse and will always try.

[girt_giggler]

State of plays odds has shortened well the last few days if i remember correctly.

illdecide when i am in the bookies friday i will be backing these horses in aintree
Michael flips
Scotsirish
kayf aramis
kerada.

These are my fancies and i repeat NOT TIPS.
I accept no responsibility for any money lost on these horses or injuries incurred from losing money on these horses

p.s if lough derg is runnung friday have a small each way bet on it as this is the william wallace of horse racing.
a legend of a horse and will always try.

In the first race tomorrow

[magpie seanie]

If ye managed to analyse that then so far a shortlist of 9 horses (subject to change). At 100-1 I fancy Reveillez to maybe run into a place for Jonjo O'Neill and the other ones i really fancy are, Darkness, Rambling Minster Kilbeggan Blade and State of Play. At the current odds it might be worth while backing all of them EW.

STATE OF PLAY       Evan Williams
SILVER BIRCH (CD)   G Elliott
BUTLER'S CABIN    Jonjo O'Neill
PARSONS LEGACY    P J Hobbs
REVEILLEZ       Jonjo O'Neill
CORNISH SETT      P F Nicholls
DARKNESS      C R Egerton
RAMBLING MINSTER   K G Reveley
KILBEGGAN BLADE   T R George

Has Sligonian seen this? With the weekend that's in it....

[rossie mad]

Ironic isnt the word

[illdecide]

Aye i like that old war horse "Lough Derg". Bar his last run in Cheltenham you are usually guaranteed a good run from him and a run for your money. Do you know what price he is tomorrow?

[rossie mad]

im only guessing here but you are looking at between 10/1 and 16/1 id say.
He has form here but is likely to be high in the weights.
Still his big hearted efforts usually counter act this disadvantage.

[the Deel Rover]

hardy where are your tips this year ?

[Hardy]

Have to sit down and finish the stats. The ones I use were originally compiled by neigh.co.uk, though I interpret them a little differently, plus a few more I dug out. Most of them would be in Declan's post above.

The main ones - weight, age, current season record, record in big fields, jumping record, etc. are well known at this stage.  On a first look it seems as if that fact is having an effect. It looks as though a lot of horses meet all the main criteria this year and that may be because connections know the required profile and are entering fewer no-hopers. The upshot is that it doesn't look as if it will come down, like other years, to 3, 4 or 5 contenders (based on the stats) so that you could back them all and hope to be in profit. We'll see.