The Many Faces of US Politics...

[J70]

In all my years I never saw a 4/1 chance fluctuate to 1/5 so quickly in whats basically a two horse race. It looks like the so called experts havent a clue whats going on in that crazy mixed up place...where the acting president publicly wants to flout the key principle of democracy....and yet still manages to get circa 49% of the country voting for him.

For that alone this cowboy deserves to be in the WTF thread on this discussion board.

Where is your evidence for this?

Seriously?

He's very publicly railing against the counting of votes!

Something he's been threatening for months.

[HiMucker]

How big has the turnout been. Any figures for total votes counted so far? And how that compares to total votes from 2016?

[J70]

The betting on this is truly extraordinary. Biden now 1/5 with Paddy Power!

How can they get it so wrong? With predictive models based on decent sample sizes, focussing on swing states. I just dont get it. Experts getting it wrong again. Fair play to the fella that managed to get Biden at 4/1. Gaaboard analysts seem to know more than the experts.

They didn't understand the significance of the mail in ballots and the timing of how they were counted in the different states in this extraordinary, unique election. That's it in a nutshell.

Who are we talking about?

The bookies?

Or the pollsters?

If the latter, I'd give things a bit of time so the counts can be completed.

If the former, well they have to respond to their market or they'll get wiped out.

[five points]

In all my years I never saw a 4/1 chance fluctuate to 1/5 so quickly in whats basically a two horse race. It looks like the so called experts havent a clue whats going on in that crazy mixed up place...where the acting president publicly wants to flout the key principle of democracy....and yet still manages to get circa 49% of the country voting for him.

For that alone this cowboy deserves to be in the WTF thread on this discussion board.

Where is your evidence for this?

Seriously?

He's very publicly railing against the counting of votes!

Something he's been threatening for months.

Again where did he say this? Not in his press conference speech this morning when he called for no voting after the polls had closed.

He didn't say no counting, which would have been nonsensical as votes have to be counted sometime after polls close.

[gallsman]

The bookies. Yes, they follow the money but in hindsight, having Joe at 4/1 shows they didn't understand the data either.

[Gabriel_Hurl]

How big has the turnout been. Any figures for total votes counted so far? And how that compares to total votes from 2016?

67% turnout. It was 55.7% in 2016. It's the highest turnout since 1900.

[J70]

In all my years I never saw a 4/1 chance fluctuate to 1/5 so quickly in whats basically a two horse race. It looks like the so called experts havent a clue whats going on in that crazy mixed up place...where the acting president publicly wants to flout the key principle of democracy....and yet still manages to get circa 49% of the country voting for him.

For that alone this cowboy deserves to be in the WTF thread on this discussion board.

Where is your evidence for this?

Seriously?

He's very publicly railing against the counting of votes!

Something he's been threatening for months.

Again where did he say this? Not in his press conference speech this morning when he called for no voting after the polls had closed.

He didn't say no counting, which would have been nonsensical as votes have to be counted sometime after polls close.

Fair enough.

He did however say that the election was being stolen. Given that no voting was taking place after the "poles" had closed, and no one had or has presented anything remotely resembling evidence that it was, what else could his implication have been?

Do you think it was a responsible bit of rhetoric for a president or presidential candidate to put out, especially with the country on a knife-age bracing for trouble?

[gallsman]

The Donald speaks:

Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the "pollsters" got it completely & historically wrong!

[J70]

The Donald speaks:

Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the "pollsters" got it completely & historically wrong!

Evidently the existence of the mail-in ballots he's been crying about for the past six months is a surprise to him.

Evidently he has also forgotten the mid-term elections of 2018 and the so-called "blue shift" in the days following election day when after his initial triumpalism about the on-the-night-reported results, he got stuck with a large changeover of the House once everything was counted.

[LCohen]

In all my years I never saw a 4/1 chance fluctuate to 1/5 so quickly in whats basically a two horse race. It looks like the so called experts havent a clue whats going on in that crazy mixed up place...where the acting president publicly wants to flout the key principle of democracy....and yet still manages to get circa 49% of the country voting for him.

For that alone this cowboy deserves to be in the WTF thread on this discussion board.

Where is your evidence for this?

Seriously?

He's very publicly railing against the counting of votes!

Something he's been threatening for months.

Again where did he say this? Not in his press conference speech this morning when he called for no voting after the polls had closed.

He didn't say no counting, which would have been nonsensical as votes have to be counted sometime after polls close.

He did say voting rather than counting.

Most commentators are treating it as an error and he meant counting.

I agree with them. Why? Because he has been going on about this for a year. And also he said he has already decided to take this to the Supreme Court. If he meant voting then he surely would have called out the places where voting was ongoing or had went on beyond the rules in the relevant state. Surely?

I think it would be helpful if all elected representatives and candidates and the party machines could make a clear statement that they are committed to democracy and all votes being counted unless there is specific evidence of fraud.

[LCohen]

The Donald speaks:

Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the "pollsters" got it completely & historically wrong!

Evidently the existence of the mail-in ballots he's been crying about for the past six months is a surprise to him.

I think it's time for Trump to spell out what fraud has occurred, where and to what extent and the supporting evidence

[LeoMc]

Looking at this now it is Biden 224, Trump 213.

Trump likely to get NC(15) GE(16) and AK(3) = 247

Biden likely to get MI(16), WI(10), AZ(11) and ME(4) = 265.

That leaves NV(6) & PA(20). Trump needs both. Biden needs either.

[armaghniac]

The bookies. Yes, they follow the money but in hindsight, having Joe at 4/1 shows they didn't understand the data either.

50 election races, with local issues and present and absent ballots, it is a bit tricky.

[CK_Redhand]

A lot of people not understanding how bookkeepers odds work.

Bookies change their odds automatically as bets are placed. There is always a spread so they are always guaranteed to make money. It's called abitrage. Nobody sat down with a calculator and came up with 4/1 or whatever, this is all done in real time as bets come in.

[HiMucker]

How big has the turnout been. Any figures for total votes counted so far? And how that compares to total votes from 2016?

67% turnout. It was 55.7% in 2016. It's the highest turnout since 1900.

Thanks Gab. I see a figure of approx 160mil have voted in this election compared to 129mil in 2016. Incredible