The Many Faces of US Politics...

[shark]

Michigan going to have a huge say in thus outcome. Biden narrowly in front. If it stays that way Biden will go 1/8 and the game will almost be up for Bluffer Don.

There are 400,000-ish votes still to be counted in Wayne County, which has been 66% Biden so far. He could win MI quite comfortably in the end.

[armaghniac]

Michigan going blue

Biden ahead and still a quarter of Wayne county (Detroit) votes to count, other areas with votes left to count are all fairly balanced.

[Tatler Jack]

Is Nevada safe for Biden? Narrow lead and quite a few votes to be counted?

Could Biden still take Georgia or is margin too great?

[Itchy]

The betting on this is truly extraordinary. Biden now 1/5 with Paddy Power!

[Rudi]

The betting on this is truly extraordinary. Biden now 1/5 with Paddy Power!

How can they get it so wrong? With predictive models based on decent sample sizes, focussing on swing states. I just dont get it. Experts getting it wrong again. Fair play to the fella that managed to get Biden at 4/1. Gaaboard analysts seem to know more than the experts.

[sid waddell]

Is Nevada safe for Biden? Narrow lead and quite a few votes to be counted?

Could Biden still take Georgia or is margin too great?

Biden has a clear path

I find it very hard to see how he could lose any of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin or Michigan now

What remains everywhere is mail ballots and largely urban

[Tatler Jack]

Is Nevada safe for Biden? Narrow lead and quite a few votes to be counted?

Could Biden still take Georgia or is margin too great?

Biden has a clear path

I find it very hard to see how he could lose any of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin or Michigan now

What remains everywhere is mail ballots and largely urban

Thank you.

[mouview]

The betting on this is truly extraordinary. Biden now 1/5 with Paddy Power!

How can they get it so wrong? With predictive models based on decent sample sizes, focussing on swing states. I just dont get it. Experts getting it wrong again. Fair play to the fella that managed to get Biden at 4/1. Gaaboard analysts seem to know more than the experts.

Biden 1/6 now. PPs only reflecting the money staked with it, rather than trying to predict the market.

[Rudi]

The betting on this is truly extraordinary. Biden now 1/5 with Paddy Power!

How can they get it so wrong? With predictive models based on decent sample sizes, focussing on swing states. I just dont get it. Experts getting it wrong again. Fair play to the fella that managed to get Biden at 4/1. Gaaboard analysts seem to know more than the experts.

Biden 1/6 now. PPs only reflecting the money staked with it, rather than trying to predict the market.

The money staked generally reflects the market.

[macdanger2]

The betting on this is truly extraordinary. Biden now 1/5 with Paddy Power!

How can they get it so wrong? With predictive models based on decent sample sizes, focussing on swing states. I just dont get it. Experts getting it wrong again. Fair play to the fella that managed to get Biden at 4/1. Gaaboard analysts seem to know more than the experts.

It's explained I think by the order in which mail-in votes were counted; in FL, they were counted first giving Biden an early lead that Trump clawed back. If that pattern were replicated in other swing states, Trump would be home and hosed which drove the odds down on him winning. In these northern states, the reverse is true however, postal votes are being counted last so Biden is clawing back on Trump's lead

[bannside]

In all my years I never saw a 4/1 chance fluctuate to 1/5 so quickly in whats basically a two horse race. It looks like the so called experts havent a clue whats going on in that crazy mixed up place...where the acting president publicly wants to flout the key principle of democracy....and yet still manages to get circa 49% of the country voting for him.

For that alone this cowboy deserves to be in the WTF thread on this discussion board.

[whitey]

The betting on this is truly extraordinary. Biden now 1/5 with Paddy Power!

How can they get it so wrong? With predictive models based on decent sample sizes, focussing on swing states. I just dont get it. Experts getting it wrong again. Fair play to the fella that managed to get Biden at 4/1. Gaaboard analysts seem to know more than the experts.

Ed Rendell-former Democratic Giv of PA said every Poll he'd seen undercounted Trump support by between 2-3%

Add in the fact that Trump supporters also lie to the pollsters (anecdotal, I know)

And how good is a model when you have no way of predicting massive turnout

[five points]

In all my years I never saw a 4/1 chance fluctuate to 1/5 so quickly in whats basically a two horse race. It looks like the so called experts havent a clue whats going on in that crazy mixed up place...where the acting president publicly wants to flout the key principle of democracy....and yet still manages to get circa 49% of the country voting for him.

For that alone this cowboy deserves to be in the WTF thread on this discussion board.

Where is your evidence for this?

[armaghniac]

The betting on this is truly extraordinary. Biden now 1/5 with Paddy Power!

The odds are up and down twisting and turning like a Monaghan road.
A lot of people have made money already.

[gallsman]

The betting on this is truly extraordinary. Biden now 1/5 with Paddy Power!

How can they get it so wrong? With predictive models based on decent sample sizes, focussing on swing states. I just dont get it. Experts getting it wrong again. Fair play to the fella that managed to get Biden at 4/1. Gaaboard analysts seem to know more than the experts.

They didn't understand the significance of the mail in ballots and the timing of how they were counted in the different states in this extraordinary, unique election. That's it in a nutshell.