The Many Faces of US Politics...

Started by Tyrones own, March 20, 2009, 09:29:14 PM

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J70

Quote from: whitey on March 10, 2017, 12:53:11 PM
Quote from: J70 on March 10, 2017, 11:28:52 AM
Quote from: whitey on March 10, 2017, 10:44:48 AM
Quote from: omochain on March 10, 2017, 02:28:31 AM
Never let data get in the way of your gut feeling.

I can't remember the technical term, but when dealing with statistics sample sizes need to be somewhat similar in order for comparisons to be meaningful......4M versus 300M???

I doubt that 4+ million people could ever be considered an inadequate or too asymmetric a sample size. You're not talking comparing 5 people with 5000. Random bias is not going to be an issue when you're in the millions. And it also depends on what statistics and methods you're using. In some methods, lopsided samples can cause the result to lean too heavily on the larger one, but that's why software allows you to randomly pull a certain number of cases from the hat to make your sample. I'm sure the statisticians who generate these figures are well aware of these issues.


https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/whom-are-they-kiddingHi

Who rankings are subjective and not solely statistically based

Perhaps, but that is a different argument.

Will take a look at that later - I'm assuming Cato want no government involvement in ANYTHING to do with healthcare?

screenexile

It's a pity Trump doesn't recognise the employment and wage figures otherwise he could paint them as a massive win for his first few months of Presidency, even though the figures are clearly an Obama legacy . . .

I wonder what he will do?!

whitey

Quote from: J70 on March 10, 2017, 01:54:30 PM
Quote from: whitey on March 10, 2017, 12:53:11 PM
Quote from: J70 on March 10, 2017, 11:28:52 AM
Quote from: whitey on March 10, 2017, 10:44:48 AM
Quote from: omochain on March 10, 2017, 02:28:31 AM
Never let data get in the way of your gut feeling.

I can't remember the technical term, but when dealing with statistics sample sizes need to be somewhat similar in order for comparisons to be meaningful......4M versus 300M???

I doubt that 4+ million people could ever be considered an inadequate or too asymmetric a sample size. You're not talking comparing 5 people with 5000. Random bias is not going to be an issue when you're in the millions. And it also depends on what statistics and methods you're using. In some methods, lopsided samples can cause the result to lean too heavily on the larger one, but that's why software allows you to randomly pull a certain number of cases from the hat to make your sample. I'm sure the statisticians who generate these figures are well aware of these issues.


https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/whom-are-they-kiddingHi

Who rankings are subjective and not solely statistically based

Perhaps, but that is a different argument.

Will take a look at that later - I'm assuming Cato want no government involvement in ANYTHING to do with healthcare?

If you think somewhere like Morocco, Greece, Chile or Columbia has better healthcare than the US then knock yourself out

seafoid

Whitey, Cuba is far poorer than the US and has better health outcomes. It is not a plutocracy.

J70

Quote from: whitey on March 10, 2017, 02:03:48 PM
Quote from: J70 on March 10, 2017, 01:54:30 PM
Quote from: whitey on March 10, 2017, 12:53:11 PM
Quote from: J70 on March 10, 2017, 11:28:52 AM
Quote from: whitey on March 10, 2017, 10:44:48 AM
Quote from: omochain on March 10, 2017, 02:28:31 AM
Never let data get in the way of your gut feeling.

I can't remember the technical term, but when dealing with statistics sample sizes need to be somewhat similar in order for comparisons to be meaningful......4M versus 300M???

I doubt that 4+ million people could ever be considered an inadequate or too asymmetric a sample size. You're not talking comparing 5 people with 5000. Random bias is not going to be an issue when you're in the millions. And it also depends on what statistics and methods you're using. In some methods, lopsided samples can cause the result to lean too heavily on the larger one, but that's why software allows you to randomly pull a certain number of cases from the hat to make your sample. I'm sure the statisticians who generate these figures are well aware of these issues.


https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/whom-are-they-kiddingHi

Who rankings are subjective and not solely statistically based

Perhaps, but that is a different argument.

Will take a look at that later - I'm assuming Cato want no government involvement in ANYTHING to do with healthcare?

If you think somewhere like Morocco, Greece, Chile or Columbia has better healthcare than the US then knock yourself out

I don't know if they do.

You seem sure that they don't.

Why?

Gmac

Quote from: screenexile on March 10, 2017, 01:59:13 PM
It's a pity Trump doesn't recognise the employment and wage figures otherwise he could paint them as a massive win for his first few months of Presidency, even though the figures are clearly an Obama legacy . . .

I wonder what he will do?!
if the employment numbers were down 300k what would u be saying ?


screenexile

Quote from: Gmac on March 10, 2017, 03:30:19 PM
Quote from: screenexile on March 10, 2017, 01:59:13 PM
It's a pity Trump doesn't recognise the employment and wage figures otherwise he could paint them as a massive win for his first few months of Presidency, even though the figures are clearly an Obama legacy . . .

I wonder what he will do?!
if the employment numbers were down 300k what would u be saying ?

What I say isn't really important I'm not the President!!

J70

Quote from: Gmac on March 10, 2017, 03:30:19 PM
Quote from: screenexile on March 10, 2017, 01:59:13 PM
It's a pity Trump doesn't recognise the employment and wage figures otherwise he could paint them as a massive win for his first few months of Presidency, even though the figures are clearly an Obama legacy . . .

I wonder what he will do?!
if the employment numbers were down 300k what would u be saying ?

Is his point not that Trump and many other Republicans have been calling the jobs numbers bullshit for years? Including saying that the Dept. of Labor was making them up?

Now that the Obama trend is continuing under Trump, suddenly Spicer and the rest are lauding the decent figures coming out of the "deep state".

seafoid

Quote from: J70 on March 10, 2017, 06:51:37 PM
Quote from: Gmac on March 10, 2017, 03:30:19 PM
Quote from: screenexile on March 10, 2017, 01:59:13 PM
It's a pity Trump doesn't recognise the employment and wage figures otherwise he could paint them as a massive win for his first few months of Presidency, even though the figures are clearly an Obama legacy . . .

I wonder what he will do?!
if the employment numbers were down 300k what would u be saying ?

Is his point not that Trump and many other Republicans have been calling the jobs numbers bullshit for years? Including saying that the Dept. of Labor was making them up?

Now that the Obama trend is continuing under Trump, suddenly Spicer and the rest are lauding the decent figures coming out of the "deep state".
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/840277753777680384

Eamonnca1

Quote from: seafoid on March 10, 2017, 10:17:48 PM
Quote from: J70 on March 10, 2017, 06:51:37 PM
Quote from: Gmac on March 10, 2017, 03:30:19 PM
Quote from: screenexile on March 10, 2017, 01:59:13 PM
It's a pity Trump doesn't recognise the employment and wage figures otherwise he could paint them as a massive win for his first few months of Presidency, even though the figures are clearly an Obama legacy . . .

I wonder what he will do?!
if the employment numbers were down 300k what would u be saying ?

Is his point not that Trump and many other Republicans have been calling the jobs numbers bullshit for years? Including saying that the Dept. of Labor was making them up?

Now that the Obama trend is continuing under Trump, suddenly Spicer and the rest are lauding the decent figures coming out of the "deep state".
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/840277753777680384


"President Trump on the job report, per Sean Spicer: "They may have been phony in the past, but it's very real now.""

*headdesk*

DrinkingHarp

GOP and Conservative Supporters, do you agree with this?

Seems like Big Government taking over sponsored by the GOP.

And before the "Fake News" spigot turns on, I watched this on FOX News.


Bill would let employers penalize workers who say no to genetic testing:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-genetic-testing-20170313-story.html

Gaaboard Predict The World Cup Champion 2014

J70

So is it time to throw away our microwave ovens, given Kelly Anne's concerns that they could be used for spying and snooping?

Is there any depth of idiocy and bullshit to which these morons will NOT descend? Are they deliberately testing to see how dumb their supporters are?

seafoid

Lots of poorer GOP voters like the idea of Government supported health insurance....

https://twitter.com/reihan/status/841455872119361538/photo/1

Declan

Trump's cronies selling thinly-veiled  protection from his Twitter rath. This is the business model of a mob racket.


Want to Keep the President at Bay? Two Consultants Have an Inside Track

By ELIZABETH WILLIAMSON MARCH 13, 2017

For a fee, Corey Lewandowski, President Trump's pugilistic former campaign manager, and Barry Bennett, a former Trump senior adviser, will protect you from "tweet risk" — what happens to the stock price and reputation of your company when the president tells his 26 million Twitter followers that you're killing factory jobs or refusing to sell Ivanka Trump handbags.

"If he's gonna come after you, there's nothing we can do to stop it," Mr. Bennett said of Avenue Strategies, the firm he and Mr. Lewandowski opened in offices overlooking Mr. Trump's White House bedroom window. "But if you want to figure out how to win in this environment, we can help you.

"We're your sherpa through turbulent times."

Mr. Trump has promised "to grow the economy 4 percent per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief and lifting the restrictions on American energy."

So far, the administration "hasn't done much beyond "a few executive orders," Mr. Bennett says. So he and Mr. Lewandowski are pressing American companies to "call Jared Kushner and tell him you're gonna build a new factory," or invite Mr. Trump to "fly somewhere, cut a ribbon, and high-five 200 employees."
Continue reading the main story 

That "drives optimism, and it drives his power," Mr. Bennett said last week over breakfast at the Hay-Adams Hotel, where he is most mornings, pitching his new business. "There are few things a president can do to build power faster than to lead a great economic comeback."

Or to give voters the impression that he is leading such a comeback.

Avenue Strategies opened on Dec. 21, the day after Kellyanne Conway, Mr. Trump's senior counselor, said, "Draining the swamp is not just about lobbying and politicians. It's also about consultants." Since then, Trump-related advisers, lawyers, or former campaign hands have opened or joined a host of lobbying and consulting businesses.

The two men say they're not swamp creatures, because they are not just helping their clients; they are helping Mr. Trump. The firm even operates a fledgling super PAC to help Mr. Trump win re-election. Fired from the campaign and denied a plum job in the administration, Mr. Lewandowski still reveres Mr. Trump and glides past his rival Reince Priebus, the White House chief of staff, to visit Mr. Trump in the Oval Office. Mr. Lewandowski, who declined to be interviewed, has called any suggestion that he's cashing in "absolutely disgusting."

Mr. Bennett says the two men advised Lockheed Martin, not a current client, on how to recover from a "horrible" meeting with Mr. Trump after he tweeted, "Based on the tremendous cost and cost overruns of the Lockheed Martin F-35, I have asked Boeing to price-out a comparable F-18 Super Hornet!" Mr. Bennett said Marillyn Hewson, Lockheed's chief executive, led a "boring" presentation about stuff like "procurement reform," for a president who asked why the United States can't lease fighter planes. Mr. Trump wanted a win, and the advisers told Lockheed how to give him one.

Two weeks later, Mr. Trump was on TV saying, "I was able to get $600 million approximately off those planes." In fact, the savings were years in the making and had nothing to do with Mr. Trump, but Lockheed didn't point that out.

Mr. Trump has taken credit for jobs announcements by ExxonMobil, Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Walmart, Sprint, Intel, SoftBank and Alibaba. All of these were in the works before Mr. Trump won the presidency, and many may never come to pass. Yet the companies involved play along, rather than risk his wrath. It's like paying a squeegee-wielding panhandler not to touch your car.

The Avenue Strategies partners met two decades ago in Ohio: Mr. Lewandowski worked for Representative Bob Ney, and Mr. Bennett for Representative Frank Cremeans. (Mr. Ney was jailed in 2007 on federal corruption charges for his role in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal.) Avenue Strategies' clients often insist on nondisclosure agreements, but Mr. Bennett says most are "Fortune 100 companies." Two that he can name are both from Ohio: Scott's Miracle Gro and Community Choice Financial, a payday lender. Their firm is also finalizing a deal to represent the governor of debt-plagued Puerto Rico in talks with its Wall Street creditors.

They don't have any major foreign clients yet, but Mr. Bennett wishes they were advising Mexico. He said they'd tell President Enrique Peña Nieto to "make it look like they're paying for the wall," or risk Mr. Trump "poaching every factory across the border with an American name on it."

Mr. Bennett complains that businesses always want a meeting with the president, to talk about taxes or regulations, the real ingredients to job creation, even though Mr. Trump doesn't know or care about such minutiae.

If all a company wants is to keep Mr. Trump off their backs, Mr. Bennett said they should hire American workers, not "play public relations tricks."

To the president, though, there appears to be little difference.