The developing UK constitutional crisis and the status of Northern Ireland

[dec]

Starve them from their Brit army handlers and they couldn't fight ( as we saw around gfa time - if they were to ever fight, it would have been then)
Starve them of their money source, civil service jobs, made up committee/jobs , welfare, benefits etc - what could they do?
Agree to join the reunited Ireland or head back to blighty!
Good riddance !

And that attitude explains exactly why Unionists have no interest in a United Ireland.

[armaghniac]

By 2021 there will likely be more Nationalist/Catholic/Irish in the 6 Cos as a whole than Unionist/Protestant/British.
So when the majority of the 6 Co population votes for a UI under the terms of the GFA .......... then what?
Presumably the British/English+ Scottish and Irish Governments will have to get down to working out transitional arrangements and trying to get an ongoing outcome.
In the meantime it would help if the Nationalist ( or allegedly so) parties who represent 80%+ of this island's population would produce their visions of  Constitutional arrangements etc and provisions for the 6 Co British within the new Ireland.
How is a minority Unionist population going to go about Independence/refuse to accept the result/whatever etc...?

You have things in the wrong order there. part b) is needed to secure part a), but most of all part c) the economics planning is needed. Sadly, most Irish parties, but especially NI nationalist parties, are entirely useless at part c) and the biggest one doesn't even acknowledge the requirement for this.

[lynchbhoy]

Starve them from their Brit army handlers and they couldn't fight ( as we saw around gfa time - if they were to ever fight, it would have been then)
Starve them of their money source, civil service jobs, made up committee/jobs , welfare, benefits etc - what could they do?
Agree to join the reunited Ireland or head back to blighty!
Good riddance !

And that attitude explains exactly why Unionists have no interest in a United Ireland.

Tough
They will be treated fairly like any other Irish person

Far from the treatment they presided over when the shoe was on the other foot!

And by the way - it's not just the unionists/loyalists !
The catholic Irish will be in the same boat!

It's tough love - they can't be sustained on a life of indulged benefits and pseudo jobs!

[lynchbhoy]

By 2021 there will likely be more Nationalist/Catholic/Irish in the 6 Cos as a whole than Unionist/Protestant/British.
So when the majority of the 6 Co population votes for a UI under the terms of the GFA .......... then what?
Presumably the British/English+ Scottish and Irish Governments will have to get down to working out transitional arrangements and trying to get an ongoing outcome.
In the meantime it would help if the Nationalist ( or allegedly so) parties who represent 80%+ of this island's population would produce their visions of  Constitutional arrangements etc and provisions for the 6 Co British within the new Ireland.
How is a minority Unionist population going to go about Independence/refuse to accept the result/whatever etc...?

You have things in the wrong order there. part b) is needed to secure part a), but most of all part c) the economics planning is needed. Sadly, most Irish parties, but especially NI nationalist parties, are entirely useless at part c) and the biggest one doesn't even acknowledge the requirement for this.

I would have agreed but I'm expecting this planning ( which is beyond politicians on this island and further afield if I'm honest) won't be necessary.
The British gov will withdraw or dwindle most if not all benefits or introduce paid healthcare etc
So the northerners will accept the better of two evils and jump onto the new reunified Ireland .
Unionists will join up with fg so will have a big enough voice!! 

[armaghniac]

The British gov will withdraw or dwindle most if not all benefits or introduce paid healthcare etc
So the northerners will accept the better of two evils and jump onto the new reunified Ireland .
Unionists will join up with fg so will have a big enough voice!!

You haven't thought it through. The British may well remove the excess expenditure in Northern Ireland and their policy may well not be for buoyant public expenditure. However, while NI remains an economic basket case a UI would be no cure for any discomfort encountered, so unless the British cuts lead to more private sector activity then you have a rather uncomfortable stalemate, a rather unprosperous NI ignored by London, rather envious of a 26 counties that got the show back on the road, but unwilling to take the steps that would lead to it equal success.

It doesn't have to be so bad, there may be more interest in economic matters as the easy money dries up, the unionists will be in an obvious minority and you'll have an economic unionism without any support for coat trailing of flags, poppies, etc, and as the dinosaurs of the 70s retire a new nationalist leader with some sort of leadership capacity and vision might emerge (although I cannot imagine who)

[michaelg]

The British gov will withdraw or dwindle most if not all benefits or introduce paid healthcare etc
So the northerners will accept the better of two evils and jump onto the new reunified Ireland .
Unionists will join up with fg so will have a big enough voice!!

You haven't thought it through. The British may well remove the excess expenditure in Northern Ireland and their policy may well not be for buoyant public expenditure. However, while NI remains an economic basket case a UI would be no cure for any discomfort encountered, so unless the British cuts lead to more private sector activity then you have a rather uncomfortable stalemate, a rather unprosperous NI ignored by London, rather envious of a 26 counties that got the show back on the road, but unwilling to take the steps that would lead to it equal success.

It doesn't have to be so bad, there may be more interest in economic matters as the easy money dries up, the unionists will be in an obvious minority and you'll have an economic unionism without any support for coat trailing of flags, poppies, etc, and as the dinosaurs of the 70s retire a new nationalist leader with some sort of leadership capacity and vision might emerge (although I cannot imagine who)

When is the 26 counties going to get the show back on the road then?  In your second paragraph you talk about economic unionism.  Economic unionism has always related to the economic strength gained from the maintenance of the union with Britain.  I'm no expert on economic history, but save for the unsustainable boom time during the Celtic Tiger, has the Republic's economy had any other prolonged periods of prosperity? This is the main reason why Unionists, as well as many Nationalists, would vote against a Yes vote in a UI referendum.  Although the circumstances were different around the time of the creation of NI, economic reasons were still to the fore then when there were worries about the North's then industrial strength if Home Rule was granted.

[lynchbhoy]

The British gov will withdraw or dwindle most if not all benefits or introduce paid healthcare etc
So the northerners will accept the better of two evils and jump onto the new reunified Ireland .
Unionists will join up with fg so will have a big enough voice!!

You haven't thought it through. The British may well remove the excess expenditure in Northern Ireland and their policy may well not be for buoyant public expenditure. However, while NI remains an economic basket case a UI would be no cure for any discomfort encountered, so unless the British cuts lead to more private sector activity then you have a rather uncomfortable stalemate, a rather unprosperous NI ignored by London, rather envious of a 26 counties that got the show back on the road, but unwilling to take the steps that would lead to it equal success.

It doesn't have to be so bad, there may be more interest in economic matters as the easy money dries up, the unionists will be in an obvious minority and you'll have an economic unionism without any support for coat trailing of flags, poppies, etc, and as the dinosaurs of the 70s retire a new nationalist leader with some sort of leadership capacity and vision might emerge (although I cannot imagine who)

Apologies - I don't see your question in that!

You say I haven't thought it through?

I expect the British gov to economically blackmail the people in the six counties to accept the better conditions of the reunified country.
The British gov will have to subsidize this venture to the tune of billions annually  ( it would still be billions less than they currently fork out each year).
The Irish gov if the actually do a goo job ( which I doubt) will get a long term payoff, plus subsidies from at least the EU - and bonus territory if they can get the yanks to put their money where their mouth has been interfering for years in our political business.

There has to be incentives for the south as well as the north to do this, patriotism alone won't suffice unfortunately. How could it.

Our economy right now is doing rather well again- indeed many sectors never went down.
Many are still on the breadline but there are jobs aplenty and local economy doing well and exports booming! Celtic Phoenix I hear them calling it.

British gov will be the catalyst in the clock ticking for reunification down to their need to find money from somewhere ( they can't afford to pay their taxes to the eu currently!)
Like the German reunification - when it starts, it will happen quickly!
Our politicians won't have their homework done do we will not get the best deal possible!

[T Fearon]

I don't think any of you are getting the point.Unionists will not be swayed by economic arguments and meekly accept a UI.They don't see themselves as Irish and see two nations on this Island,if any vote approved a UI tomorrow it would be met,as in 1912,with covenants,violent resistance or the threat thereof,and at the very least some sort it repartitioning would ensue.

If you think I'm wrong look at the ructions brought about by a democratic vote to remove the flag from Belfast City Hall! I cannot believe anyone thinks a united Ireland will ensue regardless of structural change within the UK

[lynchbhoy]

I don't think any of you are getting the point.Unionists will not be swayed by economic arguments and meekly accept a UI.They don't see themselves as Irish and see two nations on this Island,if any vote approved a UI tomorrow it would be met,as in 1912,with covenants,violent resistance or the threat thereof,and at the very least some sort it repartitioning would ensue.

If you think I'm wrong look at the ructions brought about by a democratic vote to remove the flag from Belfast City Hall! I cannot believe anyone thinks a united Ireland will ensue regardless of structural change within the UK

Ructions Tony?
A few hundred rabble?

You also don't recall how easily they changed their long held principles of 'never cross the border' once there was jobs with good money in Dublin!
Sure we were all friends them!!

There will have to be a voting majority to reunify. But with the shoe on the other foot - they won't have a choice.
Funnily enough they would be better off in a united ireland - maybe not in the first generation ( as their own prejudice would stop them) but subsequent generations would flourish - as self acknowledged Irishmen !

Referendum and majority mandate tony!
There is no argument with that !

[T Fearon]

I still cannot perceive any circumstances where unionists will consent to a united Ireland,or where a United Ireland is affordable anytime soon.

[lynchbhoy]

I still cannot perceive any circumstances where unionists will consent to a united Ireland,or where a United Ireland is affordable anytime soon.

The precedent of them abandoning there principles is there!

But whether they want to or not, if the majority vote for it - there is nothing they can do!!

They don't have the means to react militarily , that can leave - but would be foolish to do so as the reunified Ireland would benefit them! They would be made very welcome!

[armaghniac]

When is the 26 counties going to get the show back on the road then? 

That would be around now, considering that the economy is growing at 5%.

In your second paragraph you talk about economic unionism.  Economic unionism has always related to the economic strength gained from the maintenance of the union with Britain.  I'm no expert on economic history, but save for the unsustainable boom time during the Celtic Tiger, has the Republic's economy had any other prolonged periods of prosperity? This is the main reason why Unionists, as well as many Nationalists, would vote against a Yes vote in a UI referendum.  Although the circumstances were different around the time of the creation of NI, economic reasons were still to the fore then when there were worries about the North's then industrial strength if Home Rule was granted.

When NI was formed people believed that trade for the shipyard etc would benefit from a link with Britain. Nowadays they value the link because of the handouts it can provide. Not quite the same thing. As for the Republic it grew faster than the UK in the 60s, the 70s, the 80s, the 90s, the 00s and will in the 10s, hardly a transient record.

I still cannot perceive any circumstances where unionists will consent to a united Ireland,or where a United Ireland is affordable anytime soon.

There is work to be done, anytime soon is not the timescale involved. There are unionists as you describe, but these are declining in number, this decline is masked as extremists have control of the parties and as the more moderate types don't vote. There is a growing middle block who would be influenced by the economic stuff.

And Lynchboy, my point is that if there is an enormous gap between NI income and expenditure than the rest of Ireland cannot staunch it. Britain will remove the excess expenditure, but will not reduce expenditure below UK levels generally, I don't buy your concept of penal policies to force NI out. In the absence of credible devolved government, those policies followed by London will not do much for the NI economy, so the public expenditure gap will remain.  A modest gap can be bridged in the deal, but not an enormous one.

[Farrandeelin]

If Rossfan's maths are correct, then when would the British Sec of State allow a vote? What if the Sec of State didn't hold a referendum? Could that happen?

[Jell 0 Biafra]

Would also require a vote in the Republic, to agree to take on the 6 counties, wouldn't it?   Not sure I see that happening.

[Rossfan]

I still cannot perceive any circumstances where unionists will consent to a united Ireland,

They're BRITISH Unionists. They'll never willingly consent but if they're outvoted in accordance wioth the terms of the GFA then they'll have to look for the best deal possible. As I keep saying the Nationalist Parties would help soften the process for them by having a blueprint of some sort esp on Automony/citizenship/dual Nationality for the 6 Co area.
I expect a Tory S of S will have to be forced to hold a Referendum by the Courts when the time comes that Nationalist parties get more votes than Unionist ones while a Labour or LibDem one will hold the referendum willingly when that happens.