The developing UK constitutional crisis and the status of Northern Ireland

[seafoid]

I think both Governments would prefer the status quo to continue but you can't guarantee anything these days.
And neither government is ready for change.

I wonder how the loyal orders in NI would react if people in England decided that the term "British" was no longer relevant.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/df8e3328-34df-11e4-ba5d-00144feabdc0.html

  If a 300-year-old union is on the edge of oblivion, this cannot be explained by "messaging" and "tone". It is one of the vanities of the political class to overrate the importance of campaigns.
Electoral outcomes are driven by fundamentals, and the cold truth about the union is that the fundamentals binding it were weakening before Mr Alexander was born 46 years ago. The British empire, existential threats from the continent, Protestantism, the armed forces – the first two of these great adhesives have gone, the last two are not quite what they were. The substance of the union has been thinning out since 1945.
The UK is not an immutable fact of nature; it is a human design that can be undesigned when the circumstances that gave rise to it no longer obtain. The break-up of the union would be sad and a practical ordeal that would suck up years of work in both Westminster and Holyrood. But it would not be an aberration. Historical forces make it explicable.

The coward's way out is to avoid dwelling on the underlying trends that have chipped away at the union for half a century, and to blame a few campaign chiefs instead. This is a lousy way of understanding what is happening in Scotland, and an even worse way of preparing for political movements to come.
Trends point to the rise of English nationalism – already here in the disguised form of the UK Independence party – and demands by London for more autonomy. Our obsession with the particular and the personal will blind us to these forces until they strike us in the face.

[T Fearon]

Lynchbhoy assuming the free state government wanted to take on the six counties ,all its economic ills,and sort out parades , the past etc (a snowball's chance in hell) do you think that the garden centre prods would calmly assent never mind the fleg protestors,loyal orders etc? They see themselves as British as Finchley.

Never going to happen, there was no debate about it even during the most attractive boom period in Irish history a mere ten years ago.

In fact unionists wouldn't accept a yes vote for reunification in a Northern referendum if it happened tomorrow and would violently demand re partition involving two or three counties.

[lynchbhoy]

Lynchbhoy assuming the free state government wanted to take on the six counties ,all its economic ills,and sort out parades , the past etc (a snowball's chance in hell) do you think that the garden centre prods would calmly assent never mind the fleg protestors,loyal orders etc? They see themselves as British as Finchley.

Never going to happen, there was no debate about it even during the most attractive boom period in Irish history a mere ten years ago.

In fact unionists wouldn't accept a yes vote for reunification in a Northern referendum if it happened tomorrow and would violently demand re partition involving two or three counties.

Such debate never takes place in financial good times

What will be the catalyst, is that economic situation severely tightens in the north due to the Brit gov having to pull back on excessive funding for mini quangos , daft welfare payments etc

When people are staring at financial ruin and hard times, it's surprising how quickly principles go out the window.
A vote then for reunification powered by the currently non plussed catholic/Irish AND lukewarm unionist/loyalists ( prob about 30-40% of them are).
The remainder will whinge but accept the change as it guarantees better financial times for them.
The most staunch will either leave for Scotland or England or the last dregs will protest.
But they wouldn't have the ability, knowledge , know how or backing to put up a militant campaign.
A lesser threat than the current dissidents ( remember them) are currently.
Prob way lesser threat than the existing Dublin crime scene!

The question then is will the south vote to accept.
That financial equation would have to be proven to the masses.
Most northern people are seen to be loud violent mouthy pain in the ass skangers by people down here.
We have enough of them existing here ( there are a couple on this board it would seem) already without adding to it !
So northern folk have a bit of a pr job to do aa well as the economic outcome in order to convince the southern voters.

Money Tony, and human necessity, overcome silly principles .

The scots referendum may have set this in motion as the money wasted in the north is needed to be re-deployed in Scotland and prob England ( plus wales) too!
You lads better stop winding people up ( it's bad manners) and start being nice!

[larryin89]

Unification will never happen, the GFA  has done a lot for Ireland and the o6c has become a more normal place. The normalisation of the o6c is also though a defeat for Irish republicanism , nobody is ever going to rock that now  by seriously suggesting unification , there will be soundbites from the beard and co but they have known for a while the game is up as regards a 32 county (socialist, Lol) republic .

The first referendum in the six for a united Ireland could be in 2016,it will fail by about 10-12 % , PSF will say it is a stepping stone ( we've heard that before) and will say to the nationalists of the six  , we will win the next one in seven years time , 2023 . But the secretary of state wont give them one in 2023 and this will see the realisation come to the fore that republicans got fook all from the GFA . Yes it proved a brilliant agreement in terms of putting the gun away and SF becoming a decent party in the 26 similar to the rise of ff back in history but it was a defeat for republican objectives . Time will prove my point.

[seafoid]

Lynchbhoy assuming the free state government wanted to take on the six counties ,all its economic ills,and sort out parades , the past etc (a snowball's chance in hell) do you think that the garden centre prods would calmly assent never mind the fleg protestors,loyal orders etc? They see themselves as British as Finchley.

Never going to happen, there was no debate about it even during the most attractive boom period in Irish history a mere ten years ago.

In fact unionists wouldn't accept a yes vote for reunification in a Northern referendum if it happened tomorrow and would violently demand re partition involving two or three counties.

They are not as English as Finchley.
Who are they actually ?
There are English , Scots, Welsh and ?? in the UK.
Londoners would say "Irish". Innit.

Is you from noven or soven island ?
I bet you like Ginniss

[T Fearon]

Lynchbhoy the economic argument won't get an airing I'm afraid.I'm not even sure it's valid when up North we have a free NHS,no water charges etc.More likely the usual argument of augmenting the peace will be put forward to London who will happily exchange more money than it should for a relatively quiet life and minimal international damage to its reputation.

Even if unionists were to concede by some miracle the changes demanded of the Dublin Government in terms of British culture adoption would simply be too great a price for it to consider

[T Fearon]

I'm afraid Lynchbhoy and others do not know unionism in general, you only get that awareness if like me you were born and reared in Portadown or another staunch unionist area.

Look at the fuss being made currently about the Dublin Government 's (passive) role in the current talks process!

[lynchbhoy]

Tony, next time you are in Dublin give me a shout and we can meet to discuss!
We met before a soccer match and had a good sports chat so I've no prob having a chat over politics and don't want to air too much on here!

I know enough about unionism to know that they are all mouth and no action.
They needed the British army and mi5/mi6 do train, supply, plan and lead all the unionist/loyalist violence.
It was noticeable when the gfa was being negotiated that unionists/loyalists were going mad but without the Brit forces to lead them - they were toothless and inactive.

Hard times will be forced upon the north by Brit gov.
There will be no place to turn to but rejoin us or feck off back to Scotland or England

There has to be something big in it for the 26 counties to take back the 6.
This will be financial gain through annual cash subsidy, investment and financial gain.

This will be foisted upon the folks of the six counties. You won't have much of a choice.
As seen with Celtic tiger years - unionist/loyalist principles soon go out the window when money is at stake. Also right now nationalists are happy for the status quo as it's financially better for them right now.
This change will screw you all into the ground and have to jump into the real works.
However sf will gain most here and could be the biggest political party in the country.

Unless Britain gets rich soon somehow - I can't see another more likely scenario!

Plus the English want rid of all us troublesome irish !!

[T Fearon]

I dont doubt that Britain wants out,but I cant see Unionists acquiescing.The option of financially squeezing NI has always been open to Britain,  but has never been used.

[seafoid]

I dont doubt that Britain wants out,but I cant see Unionists acquiescing.The option of financially squeezing NI has always been open to Britain,  but has never been used.

NI can't exist independently and as long as the UK existed there was always enough money to indulge the unionists.
But what if the UK breaks up, Tony ?

[Mike Sheehy]

Do you have a preferred vision for the future of NI yourself Seafoid ?

[lynchbhoy]

I dont doubt that Britain wants out,but I cant see Unionists acquiescing.The option of financially squeezing NI has always been open to Britain,  but has never been used.

NI can't exist independently and as long as the UK existed there was always enough money to indulge the unionists.
But what if the UK breaks up, Tony ?

Plus the block unionist vote often assisted a gov to get bills passed and to remain in power

[T Fearon]

I seriously think unionism would attempt to declare NI an independent state, rather than go into a United Ireland.Remember Stormont and NI itself was set up 102 years ago as a temporary measure,in the hope that unionists would see their future is served better in a united Ireland.Their resistance is as strong as ever,I cannot foresee any circumstances in which unionists will agree,in any critical mass,to a united Ireland.

[lynchbhoy]

I seriously think unionism would attempt to declare NI an independent state, rather than go into a United Ireland.Remember Stormont and NI itself was set up 102 years ago as a temporary measure,in the hope that unionists would see their future is served better in a united Ireland.Their resistance is as strong as ever,I cannot foresee any circumstances in which unionists will agree,in any critical mass,to a united Ireland.

I'm sure you can't.
I'd agree they would want to declare an independent state.
How would they run fund and finance this!

Starve them from their Brit army handlers and they couldn't fight ( as we saw around gfa time - if they were to ever fight, it would have been then)
Starve them of their money source, civil service jobs, made up committee/jobs , welfare, benefits etc - what could they do?
Agree to join the reunited Ireland or head back to blighty!
Good riddance !

Meanwhile unionists , nationalists etc will be welcomed in a reunified Ireland.
Prefer if good manners were observed though ! ( and observance of the speed limits! )

[Rossfan]

By 2021 there will likely be more Nationalist/Catholic/Irish in the 6 Cos as a whole than Unionist/Protestant/British.
So when the majority of the 6 Co population votes for a UI under the terms of the GFA .......... then what?
Presumably the British/English+ Scottish and Irish Governments will have to get down to working out transitional arrangements and trying to get an ongoing outcome.
In the meantime it would help if the Nationalist ( or allegedly so) parties who represent 80%+ of this island's population would produce their visions of  Constitutional arrangements etc and provisions for the 6 Co British within the new Ireland.
How is a minority Unionist population going to go about Independence/refuse to accept the result/whatever etc...?