The developing UK constitutional crisis and the status of Northern Ireland

[seafoid]

IMO the Southern media are a lot more partitionist than online media (such as this website).
RTE could change their tune if they had to. 

[Bensars]

If assuming it was 50/50 theres no chance a Yes vote would go through. The same issues that occurred in Scottish referendum will surface. Older people dont like change, the effect on their pensions, uncertainty on exchange rates etc etc.

If the north went 55%/45% i still couldnt see it going through.  You would see moderate nationalists opting for the status quo.

A lot is based on a straight Green vs Orange simplistic vote. With each passing year these colours are fading. Each group will have their stanch support but there is a growing apathy ( from what i have seen particularly from young working parents), whereby the colour Orange or Green has little to no effect on their life or circumstances

With all these opinion polls/ predictions on population numbers, theres no mention of the middle ground ? what about the foreign nationals who now reside here. A lot of the speculation is on getting a 100% turnout to justify the population advantage.

Its a long way away. I doubt i will ever see it

[Tony Baloney]

When is the 26 counties going to get the show back on the road then? 

That would be around now, considering that the economy is growing at 5%.

In your second paragraph you talk about economic unionism.  Economic unionism has always related to the economic strength gained from the maintenance of the union with Britain.  I'm no expert on economic history, but save for the unsustainable boom time during the Celtic Tiger, has the Republic's economy had any other prolonged periods of prosperity? This is the main reason why Unionists, as well as many Nationalists, would vote against a Yes vote in a UI referendum.  Although the circumstances were different around the time of the creation of NI, economic reasons were still to the fore then when there were worries about the North's then industrial strength if Home Rule was granted.

When NI was formed people believed that trade for the shipyard etc would benefit from a link with Britain. Nowadays they value the link because of the handouts it can provide. Not quite the same thing. As for the Republic it grew faster than the UK in the 60s, the 70s, the 80s, the 90s, the 00s and will in the 10s, hardly a transient record.

I still cannot perceive any circumstances where unionists will consent to a united Ireland,or where a United Ireland is affordable anytime soon.

There is work to be done, anytime soon is not the timescale involved. There are unionists as you describe, but these are declining in number, this decline is masked as extremists have control of the parties and as the more moderate types don't vote. There is a growing middle block who would be influenced by the economic stuff.

And Lynchboy, my point is that if there is an enormous gap between NI income and expenditure than the rest of Ireland cannot staunch it. Britain will remove the excess expenditure, but will not reduce expenditure below UK levels generally, I don't buy your concept of penal policies to force NI out. In the absence of credible devolved government, those policies followed by London will not do much for the NI economy, so the public expenditure gap will remain.  A modest gap can be bridged in the deal, but not an enormous one.

They may not vote in council and government elections due to apathy but I would say in the likelihood of a critical one-off vote, as seen in Scotland, people are more likely to get off their arses.

There will be elements who will be swayed by the economic arguments but I think at present the comfortable middle classes would vote for the status quo and as the less well off are likely to be the loyalist working classes they would see it as selling out and are highly unlikely to vote for anything other than the status quo. Until there is a significant majority of nationalists that negates the unionist vote entirely, I don't think anyone should be counting on unionists to do nationalism any favours.

[Applesisapples]

There is a correlation in the Unionist Community to those Catholics who do not see unity as a priority. They in fact are the majority of unionists with a small u. They have more in common with fellow Catholics/nationalists on both sides of the border than they do with what is termed the PUL. That is not to say that they would vote for a UI, they wouldn't. How ever in terms of their economic survival they would be every bit as pragmatic as the rest of their fellow irish men with a small I.
If the nationalist parties on both sides of the border, (assuming there are some left in the south), could agree an acceptable, probably federal basis for a UI it wouldn't be a hard sell in the right circumstances.
The big unknown and looming problem for all of us in the north is the rise of UKIP and little Englander conservatives. They are not going to keep bankrolling the North, especially if (as seems increasingly likely) Scotland secedes within the next ten years taking all that oil and gas with it.
The other thing that remains unclear though is this supposedly £10B deficit here. SF haven't explained it away, but I remain unconvinced by the economic equation that puts it there in the first place.
Whatever way it goes we are entering interesting times. I was struck by Peter Taylors comment at the end of Who Won The War after he concluded that the British and Unionists had won, that things could change through time.

[Mike Sheehy]

IMO the Southern media are a lot more partitionist than online media (such as this website).
RTE could change their tune if they had to.

Once again you critique what others are thinking/doing without offering any alternative.

You are the worst kind of moral and intellectual coward.

You started this thread so why don't you tell everybody exactly what is your vision for the future of NI in light of the UK constitutional crisis.

[Farrandeelin]

IMO the Southern media are a lot more partitionist than online media (such as this website).
RTE could change their tune if they had to.

Once again you critique what others are thinking/doing without offering any alternative.

You are the worst kind of moral and intellectual coward.

You started this thread so why don't you tell everybody exactly what is your vision for the future of NI in light of the UK constitutional crisis.

Reading between the lines, I'm getting the feeling that seafoid wants a UI.

[Mike Sheehy]

IMO the Southern media are a lot more partitionist than online media (such as this website).
RTE could change their tune if they had to.

Once again you critique what others are thinking/doing without offering any alternative.

You are the worst kind of moral and intellectual coward.

You started this thread so why don't you tell everybody exactly what is your vision for the future of NI in light of the UK constitutional crisis.

Reading between the lines, I'm getting the feeling that seafoid wants a UI.

Strange isn't it...?.... how people have to read between the lines with Seafoid
Lets see him articulate that vision.

[seafoid]

IMO the Southern media are a lot more partitionist than online media (such as this website).
RTE could change their tune if they had to.

Once again you critique what others are thinking/doing without offering any alternative.

You are the worst kind of moral and intellectual coward.

You started this thread so why don't you tell everybody exactly what is your vision for the future of NI in light of the UK constitutional crisis.

Reading between the lines, I'm getting the feeling that seafoid wants a UI.

If the people wanted it, fair enough.

I think that London will ask for more money and that it'll be hard to keep the status quo going.
If you go up north a lot of the few functioning businesses there are  have no problem dealing with the South.
NI is too small to be economically viable on its own

[T Fearon]

They will not accept the results of a referendum,no more than they failed to accept the verdict of All Ireland in 1912, at the very best it would lead to a repartition,at worst it could lead to civil war.

[Mike Sheehy]

IMO the Southern media are a lot more partitionist than online media (such as this website).
RTE could change their tune if they had to.

Once again you critique what others are thinking/doing without offering any alternative.

You are the worst kind of moral and intellectual coward.

You started this thread so why don't you tell everybody exactly what is your vision for the future of NI in light of the UK constitutional crisis.

Reading between the lines, I'm getting the feeling that seafoid wants a UI.

If the people wanted it, fair enough.

I think that London will ask for more money and that it'll be hard to keep the status quo going.
If you go up north a lot of the few functioning businesses there are  have no problem dealing with the South.
NI is too small to be economically viable on its own

But if the UK stops funding it and it cant fund itself who is going to fund it ?

[lynchbhoy]

They will not accept the results of a referendum,no more than they failed to accept the verdict of All Ireland in 1912, at the very best it would lead to a repartition,at worst it could lead to civil war.

Whatever about not liking a reunification tony , they haven't a snowballs hope in hell of raising any capable sustained militant force

Sure they blew up themselves with pipe bombs after the gfa when the Brit army lads who used to make the bombs no longer could offer their services!

Sorry tony - couldn't disagree with you any more stringently here. I can't see how you can even offer up such an idea! They might not like it but they are incapable!

The existing status quo wouldn't entice people to vote for reunification - but the British gov would have to bring in measures to enforce people to accept this or face financial ruin!
Brit gov would never do that? No they were never ones for 'dirty tricks ' !!


IMO

[lynchbhoy]

IMO the Southern media are a lot more partitionist than online media (such as this website).
RTE could change their tune if they had to.

Once again you critique what others are thinking/doing without offering any alternative.

You are the worst kind of moral and intellectual coward.

You started this thread so why don't you tell everybody exactly what is your vision for the future of NI in light of the UK constitutional crisis.

Reading between the lines, I'm getting the feeling that seafoid wants a UI.

If the people wanted it, fair enough.

I think that London will ask for more money and that it'll be hard to keep the status quo going.
If you go up north a lot of the few functioning businesses there are  have no problem dealing with the South.
NI is too small to be economically viable on its own

But if the UK stops funding it and it cant fund itself who is going to fund it ?

Brit gov will halve their bill on the six counties and give a lot of it to is to take the six counties back.

This precedent is common - eg Germany and Japan after ww2 both received huge funding from USA , Brits and allies

[armaghniac]

They will not accept the results of a referendum,no more than they failed to accept the verdict of All Ireland in 1912, at the very best it would lead to a repartition,at worst it could lead to civil war.

There are a variety of differences with 1912
- in 1912 they have real privilege to lose, no quality then
- business interests were supporting them
- Britain has an undiminished Empire, unlike now when they are happy to see them go
- there wasn't a real model for what would happen, now it can be well worked out.
- they were much more numerous
- repartition isn't straightforward, but you could have reservation from Rathcoole to Larne if you want.

[Mike Sheehy]

Brit gov will halve their bill on the six counties and give a lot of it to is to take the six counties back.

This precedent is common - eg Germany and Japan after ww2 both received huge funding from USA , Brits and allies

Germany and japan were major economic powers before the war so there was a vested interest in
all parties in seeing them get back on their feet.

NI is not a defeated world power.

Personally I think a united Ireland is inevitable. It is only a matter of time...but I see it in the same way
as moss growing over a fallen tree, the timeframes are very long. Multiple generations at least.
True patriots are patient.

One thing that will not help is unionist baiting which is something I see a lot these days (Seafoid is a **** for this).

I take the colours of our flag at their word.

[lynchbhoy]

Brit gov will halve their bill on the six counties and give a lot of it to is to take the six counties back.

This precedent is common - eg Germany and Japan after ww2 both received huge funding from USA , Brits and allies

Germany and japan were major economic powers before the war so there was a vested interest in
all parties in seeing them get back on their feet.

NI is not a defeated world power.

Personally I think a united Ireland is inevitable. It is only a matter of time...but I see it in the same way
as moss growing over a fallen tree, the timeframes are very long. Multiple generations at least.
True patriots are patient.

One thing that will not help is unionist baiting which is something I see a lot these days (Seafoid is a **** for this).

I take the colours of our flag at their word.

... The six counties are the opposite of an economic super power- they are an economic super drain!
The point is that other countries will pay to have us take the six counties back - Brits and possibly the eu and USA - depending on how broke they are!

The six counties will be foisted back onto us whenever the British gov needs to get rid of them- it won't be decades!
We have to ensure we get the best economic deal for is to take them.
Better getting Michael oleary to do the negotiations not inda kinny !!