is the credit crunch just beginning?

[magickingdom]

i think you should buy now and sell monday, deadly serious cause this bail out is going to happen over the w/e and we'll get a nice bounce monday morning before whatever reality sets in on tuesday! i worked for 7 years in investment banking in the late 90's (as an accountant) and even then no one knew what was going on with some of the banks. this is an unmitigated disaster for our economies...

The problem is that everyone else will be having the same idea - safer to keep well clear for a while, it could definitely work, but it'd be as handy to throw a few quid on the 3.30 at Haydock!

The Buffet deal is an unbelievable deal - for him - they're basically throwing him a few billion for virtually no risk, brilliant.

the buffett deal is bank robbery

[Bogball XV]

ISEQ down almost 11%, banks are down between 11% (BOI) and 33%(IL&P) - it's hard to see IL&P survive this.

[Declan]

DOW Ind. Average Down 3% at 10,820

FTSE 100 down 3.46% at 4,912

DAX down 3.3% at 5,863

ISEQ down about just under 12% at 3,341

Unreal day today - financial Armageddon beckons

Think Anglo will go first myself - Strap in and hold on folks it's gonna get bumpy

[orangeman]

DOW Ind. Average Down 3% at 10,820

FTSE 100 down 3.46% at 4,912

DAX down 3.3% at 5,863

ISEQ down about just under 12% at 3,341

Unreal day today - financial Armageddon beckons

Think Anglo will go first myself - Strap in and hold on folks it's gonna get bumpy

What about the Ulster, Northern Bank, Bank of Ireland here in Northern Ireland ? Any danger of one of these going bang ?

[Declan]

What about the Ulster, Northern Bank, Bank of Ireland here in Northern Ireland ? Any danger of one of these going bang ?

Honestly don't know Orangeman but I have family who work in one of the major Irish banks and they are extremely worried.

Got this earlier today and it sums it up for me:
Saw this on a blog

Was chatting to a few Auctioneers this morning .Lots of Development land for sale at peak of the market prices. The Story is that the banks are still rolling the interest on the land loans hoping for an improvement in the economic climate or a deep cut in interest rates. As far as the Banks are concerned the Development Land Banks are good for a roll over of interest even though there is no interest being paid.

This means that the amount being lent on nonperforming loans is increasing while the value is decreasing.

Quite frankly much of the land would not make 1/3 of the sum the banks advanced to buy it a few years ago with some of it being worth as little as a fifth of its peak value. The Banks and the Vendors are not prepared to accept the pain as yet, and will carry on the charade for another year.

The development land that was suited to building cheap starter homes has lost 90% of its value.

This talk of a boom in the bank shares pending adoption of the 700 billion deal in the states is hogwash as far as Irish Bank Shares go. The problem is not exposure to American sub prime but exposure to Developer Sub-prime.

[heganboy]

Hows that bounce going?

Admittedly this is from the guy who bought Northern Rock...

i think you should buy now and sell monday, deadly serious cause this bail out is going to happen over the w/e and we'll get a nice bounce monday morning before whatever reality sets in on tuesday! i worked for 7 years in investment banking in the late 90's (as an accountant) and even then no one knew what was going on with some of the banks. this is an unmitigated disaster for our economies...

[Maroon Heaven]

what is the likely story with Anglo - will it be bought over or could it be taken under the control of teh Government???

[muppet]

What about the Ulster, Northern Bank, Bank of Ireland here in Northern Ireland ? Any danger of one of these going bang ?

Honestly don't know Orangeman but I have family who work in one of the major Irish banks and they are extremely worried.

Got this earlier today and it sums it up for me:
Saw this on a blog

Was chatting to a few Auctioneers this morning .Lots of Development land for sale at peak of the market prices. The Story is that the banks are still rolling the interest on the land loans hoping for an improvement in the economic climate or a deep cut in interest rates. As far as the Banks are concerned the Development Land Banks are good for a roll over of interest even though there is no interest being paid.

This means that the amount being lent on nonperforming loans is increasing while the value is decreasing.

Quite frankly much of the land would not make 1/3 of the sum the banks advanced to buy it a few years ago with some of it being worth as little as a fifth of its peak value. The Banks and the Vendors are not prepared to accept the pain as yet, and will carry on the charade for another year.

The development land that was suited to building cheap starter homes has lost 90% of its value.

This talk of a boom in the bank shares pending adoption of the 700 billion deal in the states is hogwash as far as Irish Bank Shares go. The problem is not exposure to American sub prime but exposure to Developer Sub-prime.

That is really scary. There is a risk that when one of our banks tries to face reality and cut and run it could start a chain reaction and we could have our own Irish disaster within a disaster.

Funny how we have the exact opposite of the American situation. They lent to poor people who couldn't pay and we lent to wealthy (at least they used to be) people who cant pay. Same result probably although we are a few weeks behind the Yanks.

[Bogball XV]

what is the likely story with Anglo - will it be bought over or could it be taken under the control of teh Government???

I don't know that we should really discuss actual banks by name lads.

On a general note, no one is going to take over any irish bank without a govt guarantee that any losses on the loan book will be made good.  For that reason it would probably be a better deal for the taxpayer if any banks at risk were to be nationalised.  
As Declan points out, the main problem here is the value of loans to developers, although there will also be significant defaults on the home loan front too as the recession gathers pace (although that seems to have been ignored for the time being).

[Donagh]

I don't know that we should really discuss actual banks by name lads.

Why?

[Bogball XV]

I don't know that we should really discuss actual banks by name lads.

Why?

it appears that many other boards ban it for legal reasons - i'm sure we're safe enough as the movers and shakers in the iseq will hardly be checking out too many gaa boards, but might be better to be safe than sorry.  The thinking is that commentary on individual shares can be contribute to movements in price or in the case of banks, maybe spread panic and start the dreaded RUN.

[Maroon Heaven]

while we are talking about Scare Mongering - this was been reeled out last week - which I found amusing.

According to two sources of mine from the Dept. of Defense, this $700 bill proposal from the Sec. of the Treasury Henry Paulson is an attempt to tie up an enormous portion of the US future budgets.

Supposedly, Paulson doesn't plan on bailing out the many failing banks because the loans are going to be falling through the floor. The loss would be too great to the US government.

Pres. George Bush, Fed Chairman Bernanke, Sec. Paulson and Wall Street are going to tie up most of this money so that when (potentionally) Obama takes the White House, he will not be able to enact any of the Social Policies and or tie his hands to change the direction of the wars in the middle-east without financial support from Wall Street.

The media throughout the world needs to take this very seriously... the neo-conservitives of this country are playing dirty tricks at the expense of markets throughout the world. Action on this blockage must come immediately!

[Declan]

These are frightening figures

Bank shares plummet after bail-outs
watch listen Monday, 29 September 2008 16:03

Shares in Irish banks have gone into freefall in Dublin this afternoon as the world financial crisis spread to European banks.

Dublin's ISEQ index was down almost 12% at 3,344 in mid-afternoon trading, with shares in Anglo Irish Bank down almost 40% at €2.63 and Irish Life & Permanent losing 27% to €4.20. AIB and Bank of Ireland were down around 20%.

The falls came amid steep losses in European markets following news of a government bail-out of financial giant Fortis by the Belgian, Dutch and Luxembourg governments. The UK authorities also announced that they were nationalising troubled buy-to-let lender Bradford and Bingley, while German bank Hypo Real Estate was granted a multi-billion euro credit line from a consortium of German banks.
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US stocks also fell as investors remained tense amid a deepening of bank problems in Europe and a takeover of Wachovia's banking operations by Citigroup. The Dow Jones slid 2% to 10,897 and the Nasdaq slumped 3.8% to 2,101.

London's FTSE lost 4.5% to stand at 4,861. The Paris CAC was also down 4% to 3,992 while the Frankfurt DAX slumped 3.6% to 5,841.

In Asia earlier this morning, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index closed over 1% lower at 11,744.

Meanwhile, the world's central banks have again joined forces to provide funds to financial markets.

The Federal Reserve said it was increasing its swap lines with other central banks - including the European Central Bank and Bank of England - by a total of $330 billion dollars to bring the amount available to $620 billion.

The move came as part of a coordinated effort by global finance authorities to make credit available in dollars and ease strains i

[gerrykeegan]

Speculation regulator might suspend ISEQ

Monday, 29th September 2008 04.24pm



There was growing speculation that the financial services watchdog, the Financial Regulator, could suspend trading in Irish banking stocks for a period as the market went in to free-fall today.

By 16:00 this afternoon, the ISEQ was down 11.61pc or 439.31 points to 3,345.46 with baning shares down massively.

Irish Life and Permanent was down 31.30pc, Bank of Ireland was down 15.85pc, AIB had fallen 17.5pc and Anglo Irish plunged by a massive 39pc.

Speculation among market traders today was that there is some chance that the regulator could intervene - having already stopped short selling of financial stocks - and suspend all trading in Irish banking stocks for a certain period.

A spokeswoman for the Financial Regulator said the office never commented on individual shares or sectors and would not comment on whether such a move was being considered.

[heganboy]

while we are talking about Scare Mongering - this was been reeled out last week - which I found amusing.

According to two sources of mine from the Dept. of Defense, this $700 bill proposal from the Sec. of the Treasury Henry Paulson is an attempt to tie up an enormous portion of the US future budgets.

Supposedly, Paulson doesn't plan on bailing out the many failing banks because the loans are going to be falling through the floor. The loss would be too great to the US government.

Pres. George Bush, Fed Chairman Bernanke, Sec. Paulson and Wall Street are going to tie up most of this money so that when (potentionally) Obama takes the White House, he will not be able to enact any of the Social Policies and or tie his hands to change the direction of the wars in the middle-east without financial support from Wall Street.

The media throughout the world needs to take this very seriously... the neo-conservitives of this country are playing dirty tricks at the expense of markets throughout the world. Action on this blockage must come immediately!

Bullshit