The 2008 US Election thread

[J70]

Sorry, I'm I missing something here, surely Hillary would be the best person to get in?

She's actually been fairly centrist during her term in the Senate, working well with the Republicans on various issues. I think she's running more to the right than Obama and Edwards as well. In that respect, I would have no problem voting for her.

The issue, in a general election, would be the enormous amount of baggage that she brings, both due to her husband's escapades, and her own past, such as the failed attempt at healthcare reform in Clinton's first term, the various allegations that continually circled about shady dealings on her own part (there are those who believe she had Vince Foster murdered!) and the simple fact that she is demonized on the right as an arch feminist/communist who will stop at nothing and let nothing stand in her way!

The fact that all of these allegations are old may be a plus on her part though.

[stephenite]

I'm not sure I understand the question to be honest. Hillary is despised by the right wing and apparently the hatred is such that if she is the candidate than it would motivate more right wingers to vote/campaign against her than would come out against Obama. That's my rather simplistic take it on it anyway.

Personally I wouldn't be comfortbale with the one of the worlds largest democracies voting in Presidents in the order of Bush - Clinton - Bush - Clinton. It's like an alternating Royal family

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

I'm not sure I understand the question to be honest. Hillary is despised by the right wing and apparently the hatred is such that if she is the candidate than it would motivate more right wingers to vote/campaign against her than would come out against Obama. That's my rather simplistic take it on it anyway.

Personally I wouldn't be comfortbale with the one of the worlds largest democracies voting in Presidents in the order of Bush - Clinton - Bush - Clinton. It's like an alternating Royal family

Gotta say Hillary isn't Bill, were as GW was his daddy, I hope she gets in, although the US of f**king A will still be despised by the rest of the world for a long time!

[David McKeown]

Interesting but not overally surprising results tonight.  Dont think Huckabee can sustain the momentum from tonight though he doesnt have enough support in the centre nor does he have support from big business, as a result, ironically whether or not he can may well come down to how well Obama and Edwards continue to do on the democratic side.  Despite both pushing Clinton into third both will still trail because of the number of super delegates she already has sown up (and the fact that at the minute Florida and Michigan will have only super delegates)  If Obama and Edwards fail to continue the momentum or worse still become embroiled in a bitter im the better candidate not called Clinton then the independents in the states that allow it may flock to McCain which will kill Huckabee through Super Duper Tuesday.  This will pave the way for a McCain v Clinton election.  Of course this could allow Bloomberg to enter as that rare animal in American politics a realistic alternative which would spice things up.  However if Obama and or Edwards can keep this momentum going then Huckabee and Guilani could benefit  In summation we are no closer tonight to knowing who the election is going to be between.  The other useful thing to note is that Obama will always do better in in caucuses than primaries at least until Bill Richardson drops out as there are two stages of voting there and he will pick up richardsons voters in the second round. One thing though is I am certain that the 5er I put on Al Gore to win this time last year will not be returning money for me.

[Zapatista]

All the news reports today are about how Clinton lost. There is very little mention of anyone else. Even Obama is getting less coverage than Clinton. Are we being told about whom we want to hear about rather than who we should be hearing about? I think the Irish are living in hope of Clinton being a realistic chance and not really listening to what Americans are saying. Many Irish will be disappointed if Clinton doesn't get the nomination and blame the Americans for being stupid and not selecting Clinton when the truth is we really know very little about the other candidates.

[thejuice]

Obama is about the only candidate I like. Hilary's not bad either. Havent much time for the Republicans. Havent read so much into it as I'd like, but i guess ill hear plaenty about it.

[Lecale2]

Here's the latest odds on the next President from Paddy Power;

Hillary Clinton  11 - 8   
Barack Obama  2 - 1   
Rudolph Giuliani  6 - 1 
John McCain  13 - 2
Mitt Romney  10 - 1
Mike Huckabee  11 - 1   
John Edwards  20 - 1   
Ron Paul  25 - 1 
Al Gore  33 - 1 
Fred Thompson  40 - 1
Evan Bayh  125 - 1   
Bill Richardson  125 - 1   
Tom Daschle  125 - 1   

Hell will freeze over before the USA elects a black President. They may well elect a woman sooner but it vwon't be Hillary Clinton - too much baggage and unable to appeal to the centre ground. 

I reckon the next election will be between Rudolph Giuliani and John Edwards. If it is Edwards will win. If the Democrats select Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama I guess Giuliani
will win.

20-1 Edwards looks like a nice punt.   

[CiKe]

is he a better bet this time than last time? this time his democratic opponents are both charismatic which certainly wasn't the case last time around and he still lost.

Is Bloomberg entering the race a serious possibility? I don't know a lot about him or what he stands for but from some articles I have read he seems to be a serious politician and would almost be favoured to beat any of the listed candidates - being a cynic and knowing he has a news empire well, I can't help wonder if there is a bit of front running and bias in those articles

[J70]

I can't see Edwards winning at all. He put a huge amount of effort into Iowa and still finished second. Obama or Clinton will get the Democratic nomination.

[Rav67]

When are the next primaries and how long before they are all finished?

I haven't read that much about all the candidates, I suppose I'd like to see Obama get in because of his ethnicity and McCain on the Republican side as I recall he was proposing some sort of amnesty for the undocumented Irish community.

[Gabriel_Hurl]

New Hampshire is up next I believe

[David McKeown]

For the Democrats the following dates are noteworthy

January 3, 2008    Iowa    caucus    
January 8, 2008    New Hampshire    primary         
January 15, 2008    Michigan    primary              
January 19, 2008    Nevada    caucus          
January 26, 2008    South Carolina    primary         
January 29, 2008    Florida             primary

Whats particularly noteworthy is that at the minute the primaries in Michigan and Florida do not count for the nomination and infact democrats are banned from campaigning in Florida

Then we role into super duper tuesday with the following primaries and caucuses on february 5th

Alabama    primary
Alaska    caucus    
Arizona    primary
Arkansas    primary
California    primary    
Colorado    caucus
Connecticut    primary
Delaware    primary    
Georgia    primary    
Idaho    caucus    
Illinois    primary
Kansas    caucus
Massachusetts    primary
Minnesota    caucus    
Missouri    primary
New Jersey    primary
New Mexico    caucus    
New York    primary    
North Dakota    caucus    
Oklahoma    primary
Tennessee    primary
Utah    primary

If the nomination isn't sown up by then we have the final primaries in february and March, with the non states votes in March and finish in South Dakota on I believe June 3rd


Republicans have a slightly different order but I dont have it to hand

[Lecale2]

I can't see Edwards winning at all. He put a huge amount of effort into Iowa and still finished second. Obama or Clinton will get the Democratic nomination.

Clinton put a huge effort in and finished 3rd.

I really believe that the USA will not vote for a black person or a woman. If either of these 2 are nominated the Republicans will win. In the past Democrats have needed states in the South to win the Presidency. No state in the south will vote for Obama or Clinton. They can't get the numbers.

http://www.270towin.com/

Here's a link to the results. The electoral college is one of the checks and balances built into the constitution and without winning a significant number of votes in the South a Democrat has never won.

Carter swept the South in 1976 to win. Clinton won 7 states in 92 and the same again in 96. Kerry & Gore won nothing in that region in 2000 & 2004 and lost (Florida is another discussion).

[David McKeown]

I can't see Edwards winning at all. He put a huge amount of effort into Iowa and still finished second. Obama or Clinton will get the Democratic nomination.

Clinton put a huge effort in and finished 3rd.

Although Clinton cam 3rd in terms of the vote and precients she won she actually game 2nd where it counts most in terms of delegate votes for the nominating convention.  Given that she also has a superdelegate from Iowa on board she has at the minute the same number of delegates from Iowa as Obama 2 ahead of Edwards

[ziggysego]

American Politics confuses me. What are caucus and primarys?