A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

Started by winghalfback, May 27, 2015, 03:16:23 PM

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Snapchap

Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on September 03, 2026, 11:49:55 AM
Quote from: Feckitt on September 02, 2026, 10:29:42 PMWhenever Micheal Martin stands down the Irish Government should go full scale preparation for Unity.  There is a strong possibility after AE2027 that there will be more MLAs in favour of a United Ireland than those opposed to it. If the Irish Government continue to ignore the issue then I would really love to see SF/SDLP/PBP walk out of Stormont and head straight to Dail Eireann and demand action.  That couldn't be ignored! I know the Brits are still in  charge,  but until The Irish government stand up  nothing will ever change.
They aren't ignoring it. They are taking a long view. The Shared Island thing is bubbling away.

MM might have said what he said, but reality is a slow building of the groundwork.

Long view? Micheal a while back refused to even say confirm to a reporter that he is a pursuader in favour of re-unification.


Rossfan

Not a fan of that lad but can't disagree with most of that.
2026 the year of the 9 Cups

Snapchap

Quote from: mouview on September 03, 2026, 02:07:17 PMhttps://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2026/09/02/michael-mcdowell-andy-burnham-is-right-holding-a-poll-to-test-the-waters-on-unity-should-be-off-the-table/

Good article from a man in favour of unity.

Here's an even better one. From a man who's actually done some spadework in promoting reunification:
"https://www.irishnews.com/opinion/brian-feeney-sooner-or-later-the-answer-to-our-problems-has-to-be-a-border-poll-DEMNDE6HQVGF5EPBG577EWGQTE/"


"...In the last decade, southern governments – now it seems the forever government of FFG – increasingly distanced themselves from northern nationalists, epitomised by Micheál Martin's stance.

The louder the clamour for a referendum, the more it drives Martin bananas, he says.

Of course it's nonsense that a reunification referendum is a matter for the proconsul of the day.
It will only be called "if it seems likely" a majority want reunification. That means a prime minister has decided to end the UK, which is a very big deal indeed.

However, there is a danger of conflating demand for a border poll with the need to prepare for one which is going to happen.
No one is arguing or demanding one before the next British and Irish elections, but that's no reason not to prepare for one – primarily the job of the Irish government, and Martin refuses to do it because a successful poll is the end of Fianna Fáil.

In the meantime, no, there's no "route to some sort of progress we can all buy into", because, like Belgium and other divided states, a large proportion of the population doesn't believe in the legitimacy of the state, let alone how to run it.
What makes the prospect of a crisis more acute, is the culpable ignorance of the British prime minister and the taoiseach's refusal to prepare for constitutional change, equally unforgivable."

johnnycool

Quote from: Rossfan on September 03, 2026, 02:14:22 PMNot a fan of that lad but can't disagree with most of that.

But the Belfast Agreement also recites, and the parties to the agreement and the two governments acknowledged, that the majority in 1998 favoured remaining in the United Kingdom. That was the factual position then. Has it changed? Has Brexit and demography and politics changed that pro-union majority into a minority?

The answer to this part is yes, unionists and those who vote for pro union parties are less than 50%.

Does that mean Pro Reunification supporters is a majority, no it doesn't.

There's only one way to find out



JPGJOHNNYG

Quote from: johnnycool on September 03, 2026, 02:50:52 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 03, 2026, 02:14:22 PMNot a fan of that lad but can't disagree with most of that.

But the Belfast Agreement also recites, and the parties to the agreement and the two governments acknowledged, that the majority in 1998 favoured remaining in the United Kingdom. That was the factual position then. Has it changed? Has Brexit and demography and politics changed that pro-union majority into a minority?

The answer to this part is yes, unionists and those who vote for pro union parties are less than 50%.

Does that mean Pro Reunification supporters is a majority, no it doesn't.

There's only one way to find out




Exactly this. Nobody can confidently say how the vote will go. Unionism has lost its majority. The lazy analysis that the middle ground will save the day for unionism is just that. Do I think unity would win a poll tomorrow, no it won't but it sure has hell will be a lot closer than many seem to think and certainly talk of it being off the table is way off the mark

Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: Snapchap on September 03, 2026, 01:48:20 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on September 03, 2026, 11:49:55 AM
Quote from: Feckitt on September 02, 2026, 10:29:42 PMWhenever Micheal Martin stands down the Irish Government should go full scale preparation for Unity.  There is a strong possibility after AE2027 that there will be more MLAs in favour of a United Ireland than those opposed to it. If the Irish Government continue to ignore the issue then I would really love to see SF/SDLP/PBP walk out of Stormont and head straight to Dail Eireann and demand action.  That couldn't be ignored! I know the Brits are still in  charge,  but until The Irish government stand up  nothing will ever change.
They aren't ignoring it. They are taking a long view. The Shared Island thing is bubbling away.

MM might have said what he said, but reality is a slow building of the groundwork.

Long view? Micheal a while back refused to even say confirm to a reporter that he is a pursuader in favour of re-unification.
He is an eejit, but the government are working in the background. Him getting tripped up by a journo doesn't change that

Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: Snapchap on September 03, 2026, 02:27:20 PM
Quote from: mouview on September 03, 2026, 02:07:17 PMhttps://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2026/09/02/michael-mcdowell-andy-burnham-is-right-holding-a-poll-to-test-the-waters-on-unity-should-be-off-the-table/

Good article from a man in favour of unity.

Here's an even better one. From a man who's actually done some spadework in promoting reunification:
"https://www.irishnews.com/opinion/brian-feeney-sooner-or-later-the-answer-to-our-problems-has-to-be-a-border-poll-DEMNDE6HQVGF5EPBG577EWGQTE/"


"...In the last decade, southern governments – now it seems the forever government of FFG – increasingly distanced themselves from northern nationalists, epitomised by Micheál Martin's stance.

The louder the clamour for a referendum, the more it drives Martin bananas, he says.

Of course it's nonsense that a reunification referendum is a matter for the proconsul of the day.
It will only be called "if it seems likely" a majority want reunification. That means a prime minister has decided to end the UK, which is a very big deal indeed.

However, there is a danger of conflating demand for a border poll with the need to prepare for one which is going to happen.
No one is arguing or demanding one before the next British and Irish elections, but that's no reason not to prepare for one – primarily the job of the Irish government, and Martin refuses to do it because a successful poll is the end of Fianna Fáil.

In the meantime, no, there's no "route to some sort of progress we can all buy into", because, like Belgium and other divided states, a large proportion of the population doesn't believe in the legitimacy of the state, let alone how to run it.
What makes the prospect of a crisis more acute, is the culpable ignorance of the British prime minister and the taoiseach's refusal to prepare for constitutional change, equally unforgivable."

Martin isn't refusing to prepare for reunification.

There is a sovereign fund with over 12bn and growing explicitly for the reunification tab. The most senior civil servant is working on the Shared Ireland initiative full time.

MM is a wet fart, but Feeny is wrong here

weareros

While i enjoy reading Brianeen, he seems in his own world at times. Preparation is happening all the time. There's a Future Ireland sovereign fund. The EU red tape is already resolved. North has been kept in EU sungle market for goods. They've been excluded from services (Irish gov is rightly not giving up that gravy train to UK). Irishgov funding rail, roads, education across the border. All Ireland electricity grid, agricultural policy. Research is already under way for all-Ireland health so losing NHS (not what it was anyway) is not an abrupt change. Even FG will have their plan out soon.

What is not happening yet is consistent opinion polls favouring unity or nationalist parties putting some air between themselves and Unionist vote. After the Lord Ashdown poll after Brexit it looked like we'd be seeing that but so far has not happened. I don't like a lot of the polling. I'd question the panels they use. And as i said, stop lending votes to Sorcha so nationalist percentage increases. She must be getting worried the bonfire selfie backfired. Her latest London selfie has her sporting a GAA geansai.

RadioGAAGAA

We're not near ready for a border poll.

Forcing one now would only give unionists something to point at in the future as a reason to avoid a later one that might succeed.

... and it would likely result in loads of clowns hitting the streets to burn out buses, houses, etc etc
i usse an speelchekor

johnnycool

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on September 03, 2026, 04:45:50 PMWe're not near ready for a border poll.

Forcing one now would only give unionists something to point at in the future as a reason to avoid a later one that might succeed.

... and it would likely result in loads of clowns hitting the streets to burn out buses, houses, etc etc

When will we be?

OakLeaf

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on September 03, 2026, 04:45:50 PMWe're not near ready for a border poll.

Forcing one now would only give unionists something to point at in the future as a reason to avoid a later one that might succeed.

... and it would likely result in loads of clowns hitting the streets to burn out buses, houses, etc etc

I don't think its about forcing a border poll now. Its about doing the groundwork on proposals, on what a United Ireland would look like. Very little of that work has been done so far.

Rossfan

Had any pro re unification groups, parties etc (apart from me) actually laid out what they see a new re unified Ireland looking like?
2026 the year of the 9 Cups

JollyGreenGiant

Quote from: Rossfan on September 03, 2026, 05:42:12 PMHad any pro re unification groups, parties etc (apart from me) actually laid out what they see a new re unified Ireland looking like?

The post Unification Ireland is actually a very exciting prospect. But that means people will need to understand that it will involve a lot of change in terms of the Constitution, the law, the symbolism even the international organisations we join.

Snapchap

Quote from: Rossfan on September 03, 2026, 05:42:12 PMHad any pro re unification groups, parties etc (apart from me) actually laid out what they see a new re unified Ireland looking like?

The only one that would carry any sort of weight would be proposals from the Irish Government. Problem is, its led by someone who isn't even a persuarder in favour of reunification.