The Official 2016 US Presidential election thread

[J70]

A lying poll on politicians lying, nothing to see here.

So the editor of Politifact, a website dedicated to fact checking politicians, and someone who shared a Pulitzer for calling out politicians on their bullshit in the 2008 election, is a liar?

Or is the presence of Trump and Carson at the top of their list your problem?

[whitey]

A lying poll on politicians lying, nothing to see here.

So the editor of Politifact, a website dedicated to fact checking politicians, and someone who shared a Pulitzer for calling out politicians on their bullshit in the 2008 election, is a liar?

Or is the presence of Trump and Carson at the top of their list your problem?

Its a pile of rubbish because it doesnt weight the lies in terms of how serious they are or their potential impact on National Security or the wallet of the American taxpayer.

Eg Donald Trump said there were thousands of Muslims celebrating on 9/11/2001 which was untrue, but there were probably a couple of dozen verifiable reports of Muslims celebrating in the Metro NYC area at that time. 

An exxageration by Trump yes, but thats actually how it was reported at the time.

Compare that with Mr Obamas "if you like your health plan you can keep your health plan....period" line during the last election. If people actually knew that this was a flat out lie and that millions would in fact lose their health coverage, or its cost would skyrocket the election out come may in fact have been much closer

(Not to mention George W Bushs ......WMD bullshit and the hundreds of thousands of lives and the trillions of dollars it cost)

Or Bill Clinton for that matter committing perjury, while being questioned under oath.  Thats HUGE.  Top law enforcement officer in the land lying while giving evicence under oath.

Perjury is taken very seriously over here......just look at David Drumm.....and he wasnt even convicted

[deiseach]

I'm really enjoying it at this stage. President Hillary Clinton is a slam dunk. Of course, people miss slam dunks on occasion. Maybe an axe with Vince Foster's blood on it will be found in her car. Otherwise this is going to be a ten-month procession, with increasingly hysterical pronouncements from those for whom the thought of her in the White House is the harbinger of end of Western civilisation. It's going to be great.

[seafoid]

I'm really enjoying it at this stage. President Hillary Clinton is a slam dunk. Of course, people miss slam dunks on occasion. Maybe an axe with Vince Foster's blood on it will be found in her car. Otherwise this is going to be a ten-month procession, with increasingly hysterical pronouncements from those for whom the thought of her in the White House is the harbinger of end of Western civilisation. It's going to be great.

Rubio, Cruz and Bush can all tune into the Hispanic vote, which they need to do in order to have a chance at winning.  Why the GOP seems to favour Trump, who cannot, is a mystery.
I think the GOP is lost.

[deiseach]

Time to turn the mirth up to 11. Paul Krugman has an entertaining take on the Trump phenomenon that has the bonus of coming from Paul Krugman who always makes certain GOP types go into complete meltdown.

The Donald and the Chump Factor

DECEMBER 15, 2015 4:12 AM December 15, 2015 4:12 am

I suppose there are still some people waiting for Trump's bubble to burst — any day now! But it keeps not happening. And it's becoming increasingly plausible that he will go all the way. Why?

One answer — probably the most important — is what Greg Sargent has been emphasizing: the majority of Republican voters actually support Trump's policy positions. After all, he's just saying outright what mainstream candidates have implied through innuendo; how are voters supposed to know that this isn't what you do?

I would, however, add a casual observation: at this point Trump has been the front-runner for long enough that it's very hard to imagine his supporters suddenly losing faith, because it would be too embarrassing.

Bear in mind that embarrassment, and the desire to avoid it, are enormously important sources of motivation. Consider, as a weird, self-aggrandizing, but I think relevant observation, what has happened to supposedly smart guys who predicted soaring interest rates and runaway inflation 6 or 7 years ago. Almost none of them have conceded that they were wrong, and should have done more homework. Instead, many of them — especially the academics — have become ever more obsessed with claiming that they were somehow right, and/or trying to tear down the reputations of those of us who were in fact right. Nobody likes looking like a chump, and most people will go to great lengths to convince themselves that they weren't.

Now think about someone who has been supporting Trump since the summer. For the Trump bubble to burst, many people like that would have to slap their foreheads and say, "Wow, he's not a serious person! What was I thinking?"

And very few people ever do that sort of thing. Someone who has spent months supporting Trump despite establishment denunciations — which means something like a third of Republicans — will go to great lengths to avoid conceding that he has been foolish. At this point such people will insist that any negative reports about Trump are the product of hostile mainstream media; Trump's very durability so far is likely to make him highly resilient looking forward.

To make another analogy, it's a "When Prophecy Fails" sort of situation.

And this also suggests that even if Trump does finally decline, his support is likely to flow not to an establishment candidate but to another outsider figure. Everyone who knows Ted Cruz well hates him; in this environment that probably enhances his appeal.

The general election will, of course, be quite different. But it's getting really hard to see how the GOP establishment reasserts control.

[seafoid]

Time to turn the mirth up to 11. Paul Krugman has an entertaining take on the Trump phenomenon that has the bonus of coming from Paul Krugman who always makes certain GOP types go into complete meltdown.

The Donald and the Chump Factor

DECEMBER 15, 2015 4:12 AM December 15, 2015 4:12 am

I suppose there are still some people waiting for Trump's bubble to burst — any day now! But it keeps not happening. And it's becoming increasingly plausible that he will go all the way. Why?

One answer — probably the most important — is what Greg Sargent has been emphasizing: the majority of Republican voters actually support Trump's policy positions. After all, he's just saying outright what mainstream candidates have implied through innuendo; how are voters supposed to know that this isn't what you do?

I would, however, add a casual observation: at this point Trump has been the front-runner for long enough that it's very hard to imagine his supporters suddenly losing faith, because it would be too embarrassing.

Bear in mind that embarrassment, and the desire to avoid it, are enormously important sources of motivation. Consider, as a weird, self-aggrandizing, but I think relevant observation, what has happened to supposedly smart guys who predicted soaring interest rates and runaway inflation 6 or 7 years ago. Almost none of them have conceded that they were wrong, and should have done more homework. Instead, many of them — especially the academics — have become ever more obsessed with claiming that they were somehow right, and/or trying to tear down the reputations of those of us who were in fact right. Nobody likes looking like a chump, and most people will go to great lengths to convince themselves that they weren't.

Now think about someone who has been supporting Trump since the summer. For the Trump bubble to burst, many people like that would have to slap their foreheads and say, "Wow, he's not a serious person! What was I thinking?"

And very few people ever do that sort of thing. Someone who has spent months supporting Trump despite establishment denunciations — which means something like a third of Republicans — will go to great lengths to avoid conceding that he has been foolish. At this point such people will insist that any negative reports about Trump are the product of hostile mainstream media; Trump's very durability so far is likely to make him highly resilient looking forward.

To make another analogy, it's a "When Prophecy Fails" sort of situation.

And this also suggests that even if Trump does finally decline, his support is likely to flow not to an establishment candidate but to another outsider figure. Everyone who knows Ted Cruz well hates him; in this environment that probably enhances his appeal.

The general election will, of course, be quite different. But it's getting really hard to see how the GOP establishment reasserts control.

"its getting really hard to see how the GOP establishment reasserts control". That is the big kahuna. The GOP is in chaos.
Oh happy days.
They need to move away from NRA style positioning and move back towards the centre , where the voters are. Moderate Republicans are almost extinct.

[J70]

A lying poll on politicians lying, nothing to see here.

So the editor of Politifact, a website dedicated to fact checking politicians, and someone who shared a Pulitzer for calling out politicians on their bullshit in the 2008 election, is a liar?

Or is the presence of Trump and Carson at the top of their list your problem?

Its a pile of rubbish because it doesnt weight the lies in terms of how serious they are or their potential impact on National Security or the wallet of the American taxpayer.

Eg Donald Trump said there were thousands of Muslims celebrating on 9/11/2001 which was untrue, but there were probably a couple of dozen verifiable reports of Muslims celebrating in the Metro NYC area at that time. 

An exxageration by Trump yes, but thats actually how it was reported at the time.

Compare that with Mr Obamas "if you like your health plan you can keep your health plan....period" line during the last election. If people actually knew that this was a flat out lie and that millions would in fact lose their health coverage, or its cost would skyrocket the election out come may in fact have been much closer

(Not to mention George W Bushs ......WMD bullshit and the hundreds of thousands of lives and the trillions of dollars it cost)

Or Bill Clinton for that matter committing perjury, while being questioned under oath.  Thats HUGE.  Top law enforcement officer in the land lying while giving evicence under oath.

Perjury is taken very seriously over here......just look at David Drumm.....and he wasnt even convicted

How the f**k can it "weigh" a lie in terms of impact down the road?
And if Trump lies 75% or whatever of the time, then does that not make it MORE likely that his bullshit might have long term implciations?

And where are these "dozens of verifiable" reports of muslims in NYC area celebrating 9/11?

And its convenient how you omit the many more millions who GAINED healthcare coverage - they'd have NO impact on the election, right?

[J70]

Time to turn the mirth up to 11. Paul Krugman has an entertaining take on the Trump phenomenon that has the bonus of coming from Paul Krugman who always makes certain GOP types go into complete meltdown.

The Donald and the Chump Factor

DECEMBER 15, 2015 4:12 AM December 15, 2015 4:12 am

I suppose there are still some people waiting for Trump's bubble to burst — any day now! But it keeps not happening. And it's becoming increasingly plausible that he will go all the way. Why?

One answer — probably the most important — is what Greg Sargent has been emphasizing: the majority of Republican voters actually support Trump's policy positions. After all, he's just saying outright what mainstream candidates have implied through innuendo; how are voters supposed to know that this isn't what you do?

I would, however, add a casual observation: at this point Trump has been the front-runner for long enough that it's very hard to imagine his supporters suddenly losing faith, because it would be too embarrassing.

Bear in mind that embarrassment, and the desire to avoid it, are enormously important sources of motivation. Consider, as a weird, self-aggrandizing, but I think relevant observation, what has happened to supposedly smart guys who predicted soaring interest rates and runaway inflation 6 or 7 years ago. Almost none of them have conceded that they were wrong, and should have done more homework. Instead, many of them — especially the academics — have become ever more obsessed with claiming that they were somehow right, and/or trying to tear down the reputations of those of us who were in fact right. Nobody likes looking like a chump, and most people will go to great lengths to convince themselves that they weren't.

Now think about someone who has been supporting Trump since the summer. For the Trump bubble to burst, many people like that would have to slap their foreheads and say, "Wow, he's not a serious person! What was I thinking?"

And very few people ever do that sort of thing. Someone who has spent months supporting Trump despite establishment denunciations — which means something like a third of Republicans — will go to great lengths to avoid conceding that he has been foolish. At this point such people will insist that any negative reports about Trump are the product of hostile mainstream media; Trump's very durability so far is likely to make him highly resilient looking forward.

To make another analogy, it's a "When Prophecy Fails" sort of situation.

And this also suggests that even if Trump does finally decline, his support is likely to flow not to an establishment candidate but to another outsider figure. Everyone who knows Ted Cruz well hates him; in this environment that probably enhances his appeal.

The general election will, of course, be quite different. But it's getting really hard to see how the GOP establishment reasserts control.

"its getting really hard to see how the GOP establishment reasserts control". That is the big kahuna. The GOP is in chaos.
Oh happy days.
They need to move away from NRA style positioning and move back towards the centre , where the voters are. Moderate Republicans are almost extinct.

But the GOP voters, at least the hardcore who listen to Fox News and Limbaugh and vote in primaries are nowhere NEAR the centre. And it works for the GOP in everything except presidential elections due to gerrymandering.  Keep them riled up and scared with immigrants and gays and guns and black "thugs" and Kenyan muslims in the White House, and they'll keep turning out when no one else does. And then the seasonal fear mongering - terrorism, ebola, war on christmas/christians etc.

[foxcommander]

.... and Kenyan muslims in the White House

Finally....glad you've seen the light.

[Jell 0 Biafra]

Time to turn the mirth up to 11. Paul Krugman has an entertaining take on the Trump phenomenon that has the bonus of coming from Paul Krugman who always makes certain GOP types go into complete meltdown.

The Donald and the Chump Factor

DECEMBER 15, 2015 4:12 AM December 15, 2015 4:12 am

I suppose there are still some people waiting for Trump's bubble to burst — any day now! But it keeps not happening. And it's becoming increasingly plausible that he will go all the way. Why?

One answer — probably the most important — is what Greg Sargent has been emphasizing: the majority of Republican voters actually support Trump's policy positions. After all, he's just saying outright what mainstream candidates have implied through innuendo; how are voters supposed to know that this isn't what you do?

I would, however, add a casual observation: at this point Trump has been the front-runner for long enough that it's very hard to imagine his supporters suddenly losing faith, because it would be too embarrassing.

Bear in mind that embarrassment, and the desire to avoid it, are enormously important sources of motivation. Consider, as a weird, self-aggrandizing, but I think relevant observation, what has happened to supposedly smart guys who predicted soaring interest rates and runaway inflation 6 or 7 years ago. Almost none of them have conceded that they were wrong, and should have done more homework. Instead, many of them — especially the academics — have become ever more obsessed with claiming that they were somehow right, and/or trying to tear down the reputations of those of us who were in fact right. Nobody likes looking like a chump, and most people will go to great lengths to convince themselves that they weren't.

Now think about someone who has been supporting Trump since the summer. For the Trump bubble to burst, many people like that would have to slap their foreheads and say, "Wow, he's not a serious person! What was I thinking?"

And very few people ever do that sort of thing. Someone who has spent months supporting Trump despite establishment denunciations — which means something like a third of Republicans — will go to great lengths to avoid conceding that he has been foolish. At this point such people will insist that any negative reports about Trump are the product of hostile mainstream media; Trump's very durability so far is likely to make him highly resilient looking forward.

To make another analogy, it's a "When Prophecy Fails" sort of situation.

And this also suggests that even if Trump does finally decline, his support is likely to flow not to an establishment candidate but to another outsider figure. Everyone who knows Ted Cruz well hates him; in this environment that probably enhances his appeal.

The general election will, of course, be quite different. But it's getting really hard to see how the GOP establishment reasserts control.

"its getting really hard to see how the GOP establishment reasserts control". That is the big kahuna. The GOP is in chaos.
Oh happy days.
They need to move away from NRA style positioning and move back towards the centre , where the voters are. Moderate Republicans are almost extinct.

Is it really though?  They are comfortably in control of both houses and are pushing for a legal change to how populations in voting districts are counted (currently districts count the whole population, and have representation based on that; the Republicans are trying to get this changed so that only voters--not kids, not non-citizens etc...--are counted).  If they succeed in this, that will mean less representation for urban districts, which tend to be Democratic, and more for rural districts, which tend to be Republican.   And that would mean more power at local and state levels for Republicans.

[stew]

I'm really enjoying it at this stage. President Hillary Clinton is a slam dunk. Of course, people miss slam dunks on occasion. Maybe an axe with Vince Foster's blood on it will be found in her car. Otherwise this is going to be a ten-month procession, with increasingly hysterical pronouncements from those for whom the thought of her in the White House is the harbinger of end of Western civilisation. It's going to be great.

Rubio, Cruz and Bush can all tune into the Hispanic vote, which they need to do in order to have a chance at winning.  Why the GOP seems to favour Trump, who cannot, is a mystery.
I think the GOP is lost.

The GOP cant stand Trump ffs!


He is a democrat.

[stew]

Time to turn the mirth up to 11. Paul Krugman has an entertaining take on the Trump phenomenon that has the bonus of coming from Paul Krugman who always makes certain GOP types go into complete meltdown.

The Donald and the Chump Factor

DECEMBER 15, 2015 4:12 AM December 15, 2015 4:12 am

I suppose there are still some people waiting for Trump's bubble to burst — any day now! But it keeps not happening. And it's becoming increasingly plausible that he will go all the way. Why?

One answer — probably the most important — is what Greg Sargent has been emphasizing: the majority of Republican voters actually support Trump's policy positions. After all, he's just saying outright what mainstream candidates have implied through innuendo; how are voters supposed to know that this isn't what you do?

I would, however, add a casual observation: at this point Trump has been the front-runner for long enough that it's very hard to imagine his supporters suddenly losing faith, because it would be too embarrassing.

Bear in mind that embarrassment, and the desire to avoid it, are enormously important sources of motivation. Consider, as a weird, self-aggrandizing, but I think relevant observation, what has happened to supposedly smart guys who predicted soaring interest rates and runaway inflation 6 or 7 years ago. Almost none of them have conceded that they were wrong, and should have done more homework. Instead, many of them — especially the academics — have become ever more obsessed with claiming that they were somehow right, and/or trying to tear down the reputations of those of us who were in fact right. Nobody likes looking like a chump, and most people will go to great lengths to convince themselves that they weren't.

Now think about someone who has been supporting Trump since the summer. For the Trump bubble to burst, many people like that would have to slap their foreheads and say, "Wow, he's not a serious person! What was I thinking?"

And very few people ever do that sort of thing. Someone who has spent months supporting Trump despite establishment denunciations — which means something like a third of Republicans — will go to great lengths to avoid conceding that he has been foolish. At this point such people will insist that any negative reports about Trump are the product of hostile mainstream media; Trump's very durability so far is likely to make him highly resilient looking forward.

To make another analogy, it's a "When Prophecy Fails" sort of situation.

And this also suggests that even if Trump does finally decline, his support is likely to flow not to an establishment candidate but to another outsider figure. Everyone who knows Ted Cruz well hates him; in this environment that probably enhances his appeal.

The general election will, of course, be quite different. But it's getting really hard to see how the GOP establishment reasserts control.

"its getting really hard to see how the GOP establishment reasserts control". That is the big kahuna. The GOP is in chaos.
Oh happy days.
They need to move away from NRA style positioning and move back towards the centre , where the voters are. Moderate Republicans are almost extinct.

Your last line is absolutely 100% correct.

[seafoid]

I'm really enjoying it at this stage. President Hillary Clinton is a slam dunk. Of course, people miss slam dunks on occasion. Maybe an axe with Vince Foster's blood on it will be found in her car. Otherwise this is going to be a ten-month procession, with increasingly hysterical pronouncements from those for whom the thought of her in the White House is the harbinger of end of Western civilisation. It's going to be great.

Rubio, Cruz and Bush can all tune into the Hispanic vote, which they need to do in order to have a chance at winning.  Why the GOP seems to favour Trump, who cannot, is a mystery.
I think the GOP is lost.

The GOP cant stand Trump ffs!


He is a democrat.

Look at his policies Stew. The man is a GOP zombie.

[stew]

I'm really enjoying it at this stage. President Hillary Clinton is a slam dunk. Of course, people miss slam dunks on occasion. Maybe an axe with Vince Foster's blood on it will be found in her car. Otherwise this is going to be a ten-month procession, with increasingly hysterical pronouncements from those for whom the thought of her in the White House is the harbinger of end of Western civilisation. It's going to be great.

Rubio, Cruz and Bush can all tune into the Hispanic vote, which they need to do in order to have a chance at winning.  Why the GOP seems to favour Trump, who cannot, is a mystery.
I think the GOP is lost.

Bush is a non factor at this stage!

[stew]

I'm really enjoying it at this stage. President Hillary Clinton is a slam dunk. Of course, people miss slam dunks on occasion. Maybe an axe with Vince Foster's blood on it will be found in her car. Otherwise this is going to be a ten-month procession, with increasingly hysterical pronouncements from those for whom the thought of her in the White House is the harbinger of end of Western civilisation. It's going to be great.

Rubio, Cruz and Bush can all tune into the Hispanic vote, which they need to do in order to have a chance at winning.  Why the GOP seems to favour Trump, who cannot, is a mystery.
I think the GOP is lost.

The GOP cant stand Trump ffs!


He is a democrat.

Look at his policies Stew. The man is a GOP zombie.

Look at his views just a few years ago, the man is a flip flopper almost as bad as Clinton is.


He declared himdelf a democrat, donated millions to Democrats and in my opinion he is a democrat that is splitting the Republican vote.