six county elections 05/05/2011

[Banana Man]

What are the main issues and what are the various party stances on them?

Like that matters !

I know, but I'd be interested in finding out what people would like their political representatives to do, in an ideal world of course where one didn't have to vote for one's own kind.

Exactly.Is this kind of politics not more important now in the north than lets say 10 years ago?

Surely its not all about religion/nationalistic loyalties?

I mean are there not economic issues which effect the six counties like job creation etc which the MLAs should be working together on.

in a normal society rossie then yes, but the facts are stormont is a glorified council with little more powers than any district council. It gets handed a pot of money to use from London and the hyiena's rip the flesh off it for their respective departments.

The only incentice for them is the party finishing largest in the election gets first pick of the ministries to divvy the pot around.

I for one would love to know what exactly was achieved by the current (first full term) stormont, PPS 21 and even that was of no use to most rural dwellers.

No Irish language act as it was barred by the DUP,

It took 4 years to get funding filtered through for the national stadia despite the money lying waiting to be divvied up.

The Maze project no further forward after millions pumped into it,

the education and transfer test system in a total mess

we are still waiting on news of the reduced corporation tax incentive we may or may not get

maybe if it was even more like Scotland's parliament there would be no interest but it has next to no power and needs cross community support to get anything passed through

The only thing they all agreed on was a pay increase for MLA salaries 

[rossie mad]

Would the future assembly be any different Bannana man and do you not think that over time this territorial attitude will gradually begin to abate?e.g more co-operation.

[Rossfan]

Only after elections are over.
When it's voting time it's vote for your own side only

[Banana Man]

Would the future assembly be any different Bannana man and do you not think that over time this territorial attitude will gradually begin to abate?e.g more co-operation.

not in the next generation i wouldn't have thought, it will be sectarian headcounts for the next 8 weeks, DUP will go on about smashing SF after being in government with them and SF will go on about a UI and how this is a stepping stone.

Then in the background the SDLP and DUP will be sniping at their bigger cousins hoping to steal some ground to avoid annihilation.

End result the First and deputy minister will be a SF/DUP combination in some order and westminister will tell them how much they have to spend on their depts and the circle will go on for another 4 years

[randomtask]

Would the future assembly be any different Bannana man and do you not think that over time this territorial attitude will gradually begin to abate?e.g more co-operation.

not in the next generation i wouldn't have thought, it will be sectarian headcounts for the next 8 weeks, DUP will go on about smashing SF after being in government with them and SF will go on about a UI and how this is a stepping stone.

Then in the background the SDLP and DUP will be sniping at their bigger cousins hoping to steal some ground to avoid annihilation.

End result the First and deputy minister will be a SF/DUP combination in some order and westminister will tell them how much they have to spend on their depts and the circle will go on for another 4 years

couldn't have explained that better myself, the only importance of this election will be that sinn fein will continue their upward trend of percentage votes and take another step towards a free ireland

[Poc me]

There is very little buzz about the election at the minute. As was said there the DUP will try and reduce the influence of SF while the SDLP will continue to pick holes in SF to try and get their votes back.

I see the SDLP have already made a few moves in Derry. They have made 10 million available through the Dept of Social Development (led by SDLP minister attwood) and have also transferred jobs to Derry from the DSD office in Belfast.

It will only get interesting if peopel like Eamonn McCann can get elected. Then we'd have a bit of a shake up.

But other than that it is pretty mundane- you either vote SDLP or SF if a nationalist and vote unionist from a selection if unionist and of course you ahve the middle of the road option in the alliance. Maybe this is one of the reasons why us in the 6 counties have taking such a keen interest in the 26 county elections. They are proper elections with proper debates and all that goes with it. And of course SF are in them 

[thejuice]

Think I'll give Dr Johnson's car a bit of a polish and check the oil. But might be a bit early to change the clutch so it'll have to stay in the garage for another term.

[Maguire01]

it's a straight shoot out to see who tops the poll and becomes first minister, DUP saying SF's success in the south is terrible news as it will lead to a republican first minister, SF are saying their uccess in the south should lead to a republican first minister

I can't see any chance of SF getting the First Minister's position. That was first seriously touted around the time of the European Election in '09 and then the Robinson saga. Since then the DUP has stabalised itself (as evident in the Westminster election), and the threat from the TUV is probably minimal.

Currently the DUP has 36 seats; SF has 27 seats. For SF to get the 'top job', they need a swing of 9 seats. I can't see how that can possibly happen and anyone predicting they can overtake the DUP needs to set out just how this could be done (in terms of specific seats).

I haven't done any detailed seat-by-seat analysis, but I can't see the TUV taking any more than 3 seats (North Antrim, possibly Lagan Valley and East Belfast at a push). I haven't studied each constituency in any detail to consider how many UUP seats may be vulnerable (although i'd anticipate a bigger swing from UUP to Alliance than to the DUP at this stage).

Also, with boundary changes, SF is likely to lose a seat in Lagan Valley (hence the exit of Butler). I can't see any obvious SF gains, apart from winning back McHugh's seat in FST.

[Ulick]

In my opinion Sinn Féin targets for this election will be:

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: here they will be hoping to regain McHugh's seat and maintain the Westminster squeeze on the stoops to add a third. +2
Upper Bann: should have had the second seat here last time. Their hopes of a gain have been knocked a bit by Dessie Ward leaving the Party but I would expect John O'Dowd to run prominently in the Banbridge end leaving newcomer Johnny McGibbon to sweep up the 'safe' republican vote in Lurgan, Craigavon & Portadown. +1
Mid Ulster: Martin McGuinness is by far the most popular politician in the north, Francie Molloy is well respected even among the rural Protestant folk and Michelle O'Neill is a clean pair of hand. These three all comfortably gained seats last time with the vote share increasing at Westminster. Good vote management could see them gain another seat. +1

Other long-shots would be:
Foyle: Eammon McCann probably more likely to make a gain here but SF will also be eying up a gain from the stoops.
West Tyrone: Kieran Deeny won't be running, Pat Doherty increased the vote share and the stoops have been dead in the water here for some time.
East Antrim: There is almost a nationalist quota here and I've a feeling a seat is about to fall. Would be a big psychological blow to unionism if it did. SF and the stoops are neck-and-neck with SF slightly ahead in the Westminster count. I'm fairly friendly with the stoop here but to be honest I don't really rate his chances. If it's going to fall it will be to McMullan.
North Belfast: They'll run three here this time but will probably be more in hope than expectation.

As mentioned previously SF will probably lose a seat in Lagan Valley due to boundary changes.

The big unknown is how the UUP vote will hold up this time. With that donkey they've in charge, their vote could implode completely, splitting between Alliance and the DUP - but with low unionist turnout also helping SF in certain areas. In that case SF haven't really a chance of becoming the biggest Party.

However, if the stars aligned, then the UUP, Alliance, TUV & Hermon's sidekick would nick 5 or 6 DUP seats between them and SF gained 4. Could happen, but unlikely at this stage - though events south of the border won't have hampered their chances any. I tend to agree with Jude Collins who reckons that northerners pay more attention to whats happening down there than they do up here. SF success in the south won't have gone unnoticed.

[hsthompson]

In my opinion Sinn Féin targets for this election will be:

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: here they will be hoping to regain McHugh's seat and maintain the Westminster squeeze on the stoops to add a third. +2
Upper Bann: should have had the second seat here last time. Their hopes of a gain have been knocked a bit by Dessie Ward leaving the Party but I would expect John O'Dowd to run prominently in the Banbridge end leaving newcomer Johnny McGibbon to sweep up the 'safe' republican vote in Lurgan, Craigavon & Portadown. +1
Mid Ulster: Martin McGuinness is by far the most popular politician in the north, Francie Molloy is well respected even among the rural Protestant folk and Michelle O'Neill is a clean pair of hand. These three all comfortably gained seats last time with the vote share increasing at Westminster. Good vote management could see them gain another seat. +1

Other long-shots would be:
Foyle: Eammon McCann probably more likely to make a gain here but SF will also be eying up a gain from the stoops.
West Tyrone: Kieran Deeny won't be running, Pat Doherty increased the vote share and the stoops have been dead in the water here for some time.
East Antrim: There is almost a nationalist quota here and I've a feeling a seat is about to fall. Would be a big psychological blow to unionism if it did. SF and the stoops are neck-and-neck with SF slightly ahead in the Westminster count. I'm fairly friendly with the stoop here but to be honest I don't really rate his chances. If it's going to fall it will be to McMullan.
North Belfast: They'll run three here this time but will probably be more in hope than expectation.

As mentioned previously SF will probably lose a seat in Lagan Valley due to boundary changes.

The big unknown is how the UUP vote will hold up this time. With that donkey they've in charge, their vote could implode completely, splitting between Alliance and the DUP - but with low unionist turnout also helping SF in certain areas. In that case SF haven't really a chance of becoming the biggest Party.

However, if the stars aligned, then the UUP, Alliance, TUV & Hermon's sidekick would nick 5 or 6 DUP seats between them and SF gained 4. Could happen, but unlikely at this stage - though events south of the border won't have hampered their chances any. I tend to agree with Jude Collins who reckons that northerners pay more attention to whats happening down there than they do up here. SF success in the south won't have gone unnoticed.

Where was Jude Collins saying that? I see he has started a column in the BMG papers

[Ulick]

Where was Jude Collins saying that? I see he has started a column in the BMG papers

On his Blog http://judecollinsjournalist.blogspot.com/2011/02/will-february-matter-in-may.html

He's fairly prolific, usually something new up every day or two. What's BMG papers btw?

[Maguire01]

West Tyrone: Kieran Deeny won't be running, Pat Doherty increased the vote share and the stoops have been dead in the water here for some time.

I would have had West Tyrone as a +1 for the SDLP. They had a full quota of first preferences in 2007 but ran too many candidates. They're only running one candidate this time from what i've read (and there'll be no Deeny either). Also, their vote in the last Westminster election was up amost 5% from the previous GE.

[Orangemac]

SF and DUP will spend the next 6 weeks proclaiming how they will secure the 32 county republic/union (delete as appropriate) and then will cosy up in gov after dividing up the ministries.

SDLP and UUP will snipe at the bigger parties trying to prevent further loss of votes.

The constitutional issue is on hold for a generation, people are concerned about jobs, health and education cuts etc.

The novelty of havng a gov and peace in the North has wore off quickly. There are too many MLAs by far who didn't take long to get the hang ofhiring advisors/commissionon reports. Look at the money wasted within NI water.Money wasted on producing documents in Irish/Ulster Scots etc.

In an ideal world real bread and buter issues would be the main agenda.

[ziggysego]

In my opinion Sinn Féin targets for this election will be:

West Tyrone: Kieran Deeny won't be running, Pat Doherty increased the vote share and the stoops have been dead in the water here for some time.

Kieran Deeny isn't running this time, but Independent Councillor (formerly of SDLP) Pat McGowan MBE will be standing as an Independent. I'm be sure he'd get Kieran's seat.

[tyrone86]

In my opinion Sinn Féin targets for this election will be:

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: here they will be hoping to regain McHugh's seat and maintain the Westminster squeeze on the stoops to add a third. +2

Tommy Gallagher's base will probably keep the SDLP a seat for now. However, I'd be more inclined to chalk FST up as a DUP loss - I reckon that the TUV will have a respectable enough showing, coupled with a slight swing to the UUP with Elliott as party leader - If Donaldson can stay ahead of Morrow until TUV transfers come into play then there's a minor upset on the cards.

Upper Bann: should have had the second seat here last time. Their hopes of a gain have been knocked a bit by Dessie Ward leaving the Party but I would expect John O'Dowd to run prominently in the Banbridge end leaving newcomer Johnny McGibbon to sweep up the 'safe' republican vote in Lurgan, Craigavon & Portadown. +1
Mid Ulster: Martin McGuinness is by far the most popular politician in the north, Francie Molloy is well respected even among the rural Protestant folk and Michelle O'Neill is a clean pair of hand. These three all comfortably gained seats last time with the vote share increasing at Westminster. Good vote management could see them gain another seat. +1

I'd say you're right in UB but in MU, Similar to Gallagher, Patsy McGlone has a core vote which should take him over the line and there are just about 2 unionist quotas - the only way SF get a 4th seat is if the TUV don't transfer to McCrea or Overend.

Other long-shots would be:
Foyle: Eammon McCann probably more likely to make a gain here but SF will also be eying up a gain from the stoops.

There's definitely a number of Unionists that voted for Durkan last year to keep Anderson out but SDLP should keep their noses slightly in front. I'd imagine 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP and the final seat will be between SDLP and McCann and it will come down to Unionist transfers (or the lack of them) to the SDLP or SF transfers to McCann

West Tyrone: Kieran Deeny won't be running, Pat Doherty increased the vote share and the stoops have been dead in the water here for some time.

Byrne will probably get the SDLP seat back on transfers from McGowan. With proper vote management SF could maneuver themselves into a position where all 4 SF candidates outpoll Byrne on the first count. Plus you've a UUP gain against a DUP loss. As for thinking Paddy McGowan will get a seat, Ziggy if he gets a third of Deeney's votes I'll be surprised. After Paddy left the SDLP he stood in the 98 Assembly election and got about 400 votes more than he did in the local elections.  In fact, if Paddy and Ciaran McClean get half of Deeney's votes between them it'll be a major shock. The hospital isn't the issue that it was and the most people are in favour of the A5.

East Antrim: There is almost a nationalist quota here and I've a feeling a seat is about to fall. Would be a big psychological blow to unionism if it did. SF and the stoops are neck-and-neck with SF slightly ahead in the Westminster count. I'm fairly friendly with the stoop here but to be honest I don't really rate his chances. If it's going to fall it will be to McMullan.

There's a Nationalist seat there providing they all transfer pretty uniformly - the key question is how many SDLP votes will go to Alliance rather than SF.

North Belfast: They'll run three here this time but will probably be more in hope than expectation.

As mentioned previously SF will probably lose a seat in Lagan Valley due to boundary changes.

The big unknown is how the UUP vote will hold up this time. With that donkey they've in charge, their vote could implode completely, splitting between Alliance and the DUP - but with low unionist turnout also helping SF in certain areas. In that case SF haven't really a chance of becoming the biggest Party.

However, if the stars aligned, then the UUP, Alliance, TUV & Hermon's sidekick would nick 5 or 6 DUP seats between them and SF gained 4. Could happen, but unlikely at this stage - though events south of the border won't have hampered their chances any. I tend to agree with Jude Collins who reckons that northerners pay more attention to whats happening down there than they do up here. SF success in the south won't have gone unnoticed.

The DUP will lose a few - 1 in WT (Hussey), NA (Allister) and Strangford (Nesbitt) I'd have as certs. Like I said, I've a feeling that FST will go UUP, and they'll come under pressure in SD to a 5th Nationalist seat (Well's is more exposed given the boundary changes than McAllister). TUV will pick up a seat in Lagan Valley but it will probably be Butler's seat rather than a DUP one. That's probably the lot, maybe 1 in EB if the Alliance can come anywhere close to replicating the performance of last year but the DUP 3 are probably safe