Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Comment picked up on politics.ie

by a poster called Stating the Obvious 

"Also interesting to note that Red C have recorded the following numbers for SF at polls since Pearse Doherty's win:

16, 14, 14, 13, 14, 12, 10

Serious downward momentum here. We can forget about 20 seats if that continues. getting out of single digits would be a great day for them"

on page http://www.politics.ie/elections/151895-red-c-sbp-13-2-fine-gael-38-3-labour-20-2-fianna-fail-15-2-sinn-fein-10-3-ind-14-3-g-3-1-a-55.html

[AZOffaly]

The Shinner element on this board are out in force on those polls. No way they'll get 19% in those four constituencies. Be amazed if they get a seat in any of them, Mayo where they might go closest. They'll do well in other parts of the country but haven't strong enough candidates in the west.

It's a prediction, not a poll

Secondly, that pie chart is a running total of all 8 constituencies so far, including Cavan Monaghan, the two Donegals, and Sligo North Leitrim. The SF count in the 4 'West constituencies' is less that 19%. Remember the 19% is percentage of seats won in our predictions, not a voting percentage.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Leaked constituency polling : FG 70, LAB 34, FF 33, SF 13

[DUBSFORSAM1]

The sooner we get a FG overall majority the better

[The Subbie]

Getting away from polls etc for a wee minute but have just heard a particularly disturbing tale about sitting Cavan/Monaghan TD Margaret  Conlan, a group of local farmers after having being messed about once too often by lough eigish co op over milk prices decided to go direct to their local representative to voice their concerns & see what could be done, about 20-25 went to her house with 2 men approaching her door to ask for a meeting, not here they were told, fair enough we'll wait, mags arrives home, the 2 men approach the door again, no answer then the guards arrive to tell them all to leave the area under fear of arrest under the public order act!!
Talk about being totally disconnected from reality!! Now I know going mob handed to someones house is not really the way to go about airing your grieviances but the fact that 50% of the guys there were Fianna fail members/supporters etc they most likely thought they would get a hearing.
How wrong they were, mags having most likely dined in the presence of the great & the good that very afternoon could not be speaking to mere farmers from mid Monaghan o no, well mags the clock is ticking,she's finished.

[brokencrossbar1]

Only watching from afar and not taking too much notice of it.  What are the feelings about seats breakdown.  Can FG get a clear majority? If they don't get a clear majority would the recent difficulties between FG and Labour make a coalition difficult? Given that Gilmore seems to be a more competent leader than Kenny would he be happy to be Tanaiste to him? Would Gilmore not like to have a run at it himself and partner off with another party and independents?

[AZOffaly]

Only watching from afar and not taking too much notice of it.  What are the feelings about seats breakdown.  Can FG get a clear majority? If they don't get a clear majority would the recent difficulties between FG and Labour make a coalition difficult? Given that Gilmore seems to be a more competent leader than Kenny would he be happy to be Tanaiste to him? Would Gilmore not like to have a run at it himself and partner off with another party and independents?

I think the ideal scenario would be someone getting an overall majority alright, anyone. A clear, untinged vision would be the best thing given what's possibly coming down the pipe. However, I think FG are the party most likely to have a chance, and I don't think they'll get the majority.

I think a FG/LAB coalition would not be feasible long term, as it's not a sustainable strategy to have such divergent views on things like the public sector and taxation (despite Gilmore's protestations), however I suspect it's the most likely outcome.

Another option is a FG plus Independents coalition government, with the backing of FF (on economic matters at least). That might be Kenny's preference, but of course the first wobble will mean FF will try and bring them down.

FF and LAB is an outside possibility as well, depending on the extent of FF's meltdown, but it's hard to see Labour doing well enough to take it on, and it's also as big a mismatch in policies as FG/LAB would be. Also you'd have to think there's no party in the Dail willing to enter into an arrangement with FF at this point.

I think SF would be a decent match policy wise with Labour, but they are probably still seen as too 'risque' to bring to the big table.

My prediction would be a FG led government, with the support of Independents and even FF.

[DUBSFORSAM1]

Only watching from afar and not taking too much notice of it.  What are the feelings about seats breakdown.  Can FG get a clear majority? If they don't get a clear majority would the recent difficulties between FG and Labour make a coalition difficult? Given that Gilmore seems to be a more competent leader than Kenny would he be happy to be Tanaiste to him? Would Gilmore not like to have a run at it himself and partner off with another party and independents?

How in Gods name can you think Gilmore is a more competent leader??
Has he built a strong Front Bench? No
Has he promoted his best people to high positions? No
Did he perform well in the TV debate? No
Has he run a good campaign? No
Does he delegate to experts? No
Has he developed strong policies? No

Is he good at shouting in debates and putting out one liners etc? Yes

[muppet]

I honestly believe centre-right policies are better than left policies to deal with this financial crisis.

Single party government would be ideal assuming that party had enough good personnel to carry it off. A mix of a centre-right party and a party from the left would be good if you got the best of both worlds (less government spending and taxes from the right while protecting workers and services by the left - but try squaring that round peg).

Either way we need a government with a decent majority as when do decide to fight bondholders and/or restructure/default the government will come under severe pressure.

[bcarrier]

http://finegael2011.com/valentine.asp

[mylestheslasher]

Anyone else think its ridiculous Kenny going of the meet Merkel like he already Taoiseach. Highly arrogant imo.

[brokencrossbar1]

They are going to win the election but I don't know whether it will be as comprehensive as some might think.  I don't think they will have a clear majority.  While many people do not trust FF to do anything right I still don't think they trust FG either.  Polls are useful but when the curtain closes on the polling booth peoples' minds waiver.  I think they need around 85 odd seats to get an outright majority, is that right? That means they need a jump of around 30 seats to gain an outright majority.  That's a lot of votes!

Anyone else think its ridiculous Kenny going of the meet Merkel like he already Taoiseach. Highly arrogant imo.

[muppet]

Anyone else think its ridiculous Kenny going of the meet Merkel like he already Taoiseach. Highly arrogant imo.

Clinton, Obama, Blair, Brown and Cameron had top level talks with foreign leaders before they were elected. It is normal.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Anyone else think its ridiculous Kenny going of the meet Merkel like he already Taoiseach. Highly arrogant imo.

No, the current Taoiseach is afraid to do so, so why not Enda.

[stephenite]

Anyone else think its ridiculous Kenny going of the meet Merkel like he already Taoiseach. Highly arrogant imo.

Do you think Merklel just allows anyone to rock up and meet her, do you seriously think that Enda Kenny decided that he was going to meet her? Seriously?